Spring Training Notes: Ortiz Released, Journeymen Re-Assigned and Belt OTF?

With Opening Day (well...the official one, unless you count today's games in Japan as Opening Day) officially begins next week, which means we're winding down in Scottsdale. So, as with anything winding down, there is some new swirling around Giants camp as the rosters start to get finalized. Safe to say, there probably is a lot more on the horizon for the Giants in the next couple of days.

Here are a few of the most recent tidbits that deal with Giants prospects/minor league players.


-- According to Hank Schulman of the SF Chronicle, the Giants released journeyman right handed pitcher Ramon Ortiz. Ortiz pitched for the Fresno Grizzlies in 2010, but didn't get a callup at any point that season. Last year, Ortiz made his return back to the big leagues, making 22 appearances for the Cubs while posting an ERA of 4.86 in 33.1 IP. Despite his experience and arm (he averaged 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings last year with the Cubs), it was a longshot that Ortiz would break camp with the Major League team, let alone see any playing time at the Major League level at any point this season. With the Giants depth in the starting rotation and bullpen, the chips were heavily stacked against Ortiz this Spring. Chances are though he will catch on with another team at some point this year, most likely with a team that is in more need of pitching or bullpen depth.

-- Also, Schulman reported that the Giants re-assigned Andrew Kown, Brian Burres, Wilmin Rodriguez, and Shane Loux to Minor League camp. All of them were non-roster invitees, so the decision on these guys doesn't really come as a surprise. Rodriguez had the most impressive Spring of the bunch, as he posted a 1.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in six appearances and 5.1 innings of work. He also recorded a save and struck out five batters while allowing four hits and no walks. Of all the listed guys above with an outside chance to somehow sneak on the 40-man roster this year, I think Rodriguez has the best shot, especially with Dan Runzler's health a major question mark this year.

-- Much to this writer's dismay, Brandon Belt may start the year in Fresno despite a stellar spring (he was hitting .380 with three home runs going into today's game), according to Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area (and formerly the SJ Mercury). Giants hitting coach Hensley Meulens had this to say in Baggarly's piece about Belt's performance at the plate this Spring:

“He’s way out in front of the batter’s box,” Meulens said. “It works for him, but want to make sure he’s getting the bat head out on those pitches middle-in and not just trying to flare it to left-center. We’re on the back field using drills so he can create that feel. When his elbow goes out, the barrel actually flattens and it takes a longer time to get the bat out in front."

My big issue with this is that I understand Belt may not put up the .380 mark in the Majors this year like he has been doing this Spring. That is unrealistic of course, and I think he would probably be a .250-.270 hitter with a .340-.360 OBP and .420-.450 slugging. However, Belt really has nothing else to prove in Fresno (he mashed last year), and he offers a lot more value to the Giants other than just offense (he is a huge defensive upgrade over Aubrey Huff). It's just sad that the Giants are being so cautious with him, because I think he came on toward the end of the year after the Giants stopped sending him down to Fresno and back up to San Francisco like one of those crazy, flashing Yo-Yo's. Hopefully, Belt will get an extended shot at first for the Giants at some point this year and can prove to the Giants he's the best option for the Giants not only for the future, but for the present as well.

Graduate Profile: Can 2012 Be Brandon Belt's Big-League Breakthrough?

The consensus No.1 prospect in the Giants system in almost every publication last year, Brandon Belt not only unexpectedly made the Opening Day active roster, but he also started at first base against the Dodgers in the Giants initial game of the 2011 season. Of course, the starting spot was more out of necessity (Cody Ross was on the Disabled List to begin the year) rather than want (he was expected to begin the year in Triple-A), but nonetheless, Belt's big league debut was received with about as much fervor as previous top prospects Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner.

Belt's first season in the majors was a mixed bag of sorts. In his second game of the year, Belt blasted a deep center field home run at Dodger Stadium, and he showed glimpses of power (he hit nine home runs) and a patient eye at the plate (he posted a walk percentage of 9.6 percent) in 209 plate appearances. However, it was obvious that Belt's plate approach proved to be his own worst enemy at times, as he whiffed 57 times, good for a 23.7 strikeout percentage. Furthermore, he struggled to make hard contact consistently, as his line drive percentage was only 13.8 percent.

When Belt was demoted back to Fresno on April 20th, Belt regained the form that made him such a top prospect after his 2010 season. He posted a .309 average, .975 OPS, and .422 wOBA with the Grizzlies in 212 plate appearances, and he also added eight home runs and sported a BB/K ratio of 0.89 (highlighted by a 19.8 walk percentage). It was obvious that Belt was simply too good of a hitter for Pacific Coast League pitching, but in multiple callups, Belt struggled to find consistent playing time and he just could never get it together. Hence, due to lack of playing time and at-bats, Belt finished his big-league year with a .314 wOBA and a 98 wRC+ (runs created above average, with 100 being the average).

2012 will be an interesting year, because Belt has graduated as a prospect and it's most likely that he will start the year on the Big League roster and could vie for a playing spot in the outfield along with Melky Cabrera and Nate Schierholtz. Though Belt is probably a better defensive player than Huff at first base, Huff's veteran status, manager Bruce Bochy's affinity for such players, and Huff's contract (he's got one more year worth 10 million dollars; slam your head against the desk Giants fans) probably will regulate Belt to backup status at the position.

Still, despite the obstacles Belt will face in terms of playing time in 2012, his chances should be much better, especially with Ross and Pat Burrell no longer Giants. Furthermore, I think Giants fans can expect a much better performance at the plate in Belt's second year. I'll point to a few reasons:

1.) He suffered from a very low BABIP in 2011.

--I would be surprised if Belt sported a BABIP similar to the .273 mark he had a year ago (the league average is .295). He hit a lot of groundballs in 2011 (42.3 percent GB rate), which was probably due to his anxiousness at the plate as a rookie with a lot of expectations. He had a 49.2 percent swing percentage and swung out of the strike zone 30.1 percent of the time. Belt's MO in the minors has always been his patience (.457 minor league OBP), so I think he'll probably hover more toward league average in swing percentage (46.2 percent), especially now that he is more familiar with Major League pitching and is more aware of his limitations (his contact rate was 77.7 percent and his swinging strike percentage was 10.5 percent). With a more selective approach, it isn't hard to think that Belt will get his BABIP back to above league average and perhaps in the .330-.360 mark (his minor league BABIP average was .405), which undoubtedly will result in a better slash line in 2012.

2.) More playing time.

--As noted earlier in the post, Belt will have a lot less competition (though I do wish he would play at first base over Huff). It's probably for certain that Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera will have regular spots in the outfield, but Schierholtz is by no means cemented in his position (though defensively he is by far the Giants best outfielder). Belt may not start on Opening Day, but if Schierholtz struggles offensively, and if Belt can get off to a hot start, then it simply isn't out of the question that he could play himself into a permanent outfield position by mid-late May or early June. With consistent at-bats, it is likely Belt will play better at the Major League level, since on a talent-level alone he is probably the second or third best outfielder on the Giants roster offensively.

3.) Less pressure to perform.

--After Belt hit that homer against the Dodgers, an insurmountable amount of pressure and expectation was heaped on him. With Posey winning the Rookie of the Year award in 2010, many Giants fans and baseball analysts probably expected Belt to follow in the same footsteps as Posey and compete for the award in 2011. However, Posey had a lot more time in the minors before his callup in comparison to Belt, and additionally, Belt was rushed to the majors due to injury. I don't think the Giants brass really expected to callup Belt in 2011 until May or June, and the callup most likely stalled his development a little. Of course, the slight stall wasn't a bad thing by any measure since Belt still has youth on his side (he was 23 last year and he will be 24 come April). However, now that all the ROY hoopla is done with and Belt is a little more under the radar than a year ago, it is likely that Belt will be more comfortable at the Big League level, especially at the plate.

Overall, there is still a lot of hope that Belt can live up to his Top Prospect status, and there is strong consensus among the baseball blog and analyst circles that Belt will undoubtedly top the numbers he posted a year ago barring injury. Bill James projects Belt to sport a .363 wOBA and a .266/.358/.840 slash line, and though RotoChamp is a little more conservative their .348 wOBA and .251/.335/.800 slash line projection is still a vast improvement from last year and certainly will be welcomed by a Giants team that is desperate need of offense after they clunked a year ago, and lost Carlos Beltran due to Free Agency.

As for my projection? I think Belt will hover in that .250-.270 average line with an OBP around .340-.360 and an OPS of .810-.840. I think the power he has is legit (as evidenced by his 15.8 percent HR/FB ratio) and he will have a better idea at the plate, which probably means more line drives and walks and less groundballs and strikeouts. Of course, he is most likely always going to be a guy that is going to have strikeout percentages in the 20-25 percent range and probably be a sub-.300 average hitter, but if he continues to be an 8-12 percent walk rate guy and sport a .350 plus OBP, then Giants fans and management will be more than happy.

Undoubtedly, it will be interesting to see how the outfield competition pans out, which we will only know come and after Spring Training. That being said, the opportunity to succeed is a lot brighter for Belt than a year ago. While he may not make a total breakthrough, I think he'll have an impact at the plate in 2012, which will mean good things for Belt and the Giants in the following years, especially after Huff comes off the books (and thus, Belt can move back to his natural position at first base).

Can the Brandons Spark the Giants in Buster's Absence?

It took me a while to write this. Not because of research or anything like that, but simply because I was so steamed about the Buster Posey injury from last night. I'm kind of going through the seven stages of grief right now, and if anything, I'm probably just past the anger stage. That's how tough this day has been and how hard I've taken this Posey setback (much like most of Giants nation).

That being said, Posey is out for an extended period of time (most likely the year), and the Giants will have to make it through. I'll have a profile on catcher Chris Stewart at some point, but the real story of the day other than Posey's injury is the callups of Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford (other minor news was Ryan Rohlinger and Henry Sosa being designated for assignment to make room for Crawford and Stewart; Sosa was No. 26 in my list). Belt was an expected callup, simply because he was hitting very well in Fresno, but the Crawford promotion comes as a surprise. After all, he started the season on the disabled list, and while he was putting up good numbers in San Jose, it was only High Single-A. I figured it was more of a rehab stint before he got the eventual callup to Fresno (where he was expected to start the year prior to injury). However, with Mike Fontenot joining Posey and Darren Ford on the disabled list, the need for depth in the middle infield was huge, and the Giants made the decision to call up Crawford along with Belt and Stewart.

In terms of Belt, the promotion was obvious: the Giants desperately need offense, and Belt has been hitting well in Fresno. The Giants managed to garner only three hits today against Anibal Sanchez, and Aubrery Huff and Cody Ross haven't exactly lit it up with the Giants this year. Belt showed some nice strides in Fresno. In 31 games and 132 plate appearance, Belt hit .337 with a .994 OPS and added four home runs and 21 RBI in his tenure with the Grizzlies. The strongest aspect of Belt's game in Fresno was his strong ability to draw a walk and get on base, as he posted an OBP of .470 and had a BB/K ratio of 0.87. Additionally, Belt showed some versatility with the Grizzlies, as he played left and right field and first base, with a majority of his playing time coming in the outfield (he played 26 games total in the outfield). Thus, he brings a lot of utility defensively, which is good since it was obvious in the beginning of the year that Huff was probably more suited for first base only.

Belt though was far from perfect in Fresno. He struck out 31 times, a 30.6 percent rate. Furthermore, his contact rate wasn't very impressive at 69 percent (you read that right). While Belt wasn't overpowered or overwhelmed by the Pacific Coast League pitching, it was obvious that his plate patience was his worst enemy at times. Belt seemed to be almost too selective, and he ended up helping pitchers by getting behind in counts early and often in many of his at-bats. Now, I don't think Belt will be a 69 percent contact hitter in the Majors. In his short tenure with the Giants earlier this year, he posted a contact rate of 77.7, so his low contact rate may have just been a stretch where he was figuring out the pitching and what he could hit for power and what he could lay off of. Nonetheless, Belt probably needs to show more aggressiveness at the dish this time around in the Majors, for he is needed to spark this Giants offense, and MLB pitchers won't make as many mistakes as PCL hurlers.

Another issue for Belt is the decrease in power from a year ago. After posting slugging percentages of .623 in Richmond and .563 in Fresno a season ago, Belt's slugging dipped to .525 this year. Also his ISO fell to .188 with the Grizzlies, the first time it had ever been under the .200 mark in his minor league career. Still though, Belt does offer a lot of offensive upside, even with the power numbers down, and if you look at his competition, Belt doesn't need to be incredible offensively (Huff has a slugging of .337 and Ross has a slugging of .378). If he can be in the mid-to-high .700 (or even low .800) range in terms of OPS for the remainder of the year in San Francisco, and if he can continue to display his solid eye at the plate (he did produce a BB/K ratio of 0.62 in the Majors this year), then Belt certainly will be a boost to this inconsistent Giants offense (and it is possible in my opinion, as his Major League Equivalent from a year ago produced an OPS of .896).

As for Crawford, he is coming off a very promising stint in San Jose this season, as he .312 with a 1.005 OPS. He also added three home runs and 15 RBI, and looked very much like the hitter he was two years earlier in the California League. That being said, the California League is the California League, and considering Crawford spent the past two years in Double-A Richmond, it shouldn't be surprising to anyone that he hit as well as he did in in San Jose.

The big question for Crawford will be how he will adjust in the Majors after relatively struggling in the Eastern League the past two years. His Major League Equivalent from a year ago produced a .226 average, a .303 OBP, a .347 slugging, a .650 OPS, a contact rate of 77 percent and a BB/K ratio of 0.47. Those numbers aren't exactly on par with what Giants fans saw from Crawford this year in San Jose. Nonetheless, Crawford may be okay if he can post those numbers this year, or perhaps perform slightly above. Crawford is a solid defender who has gotten good reports from scouts and the Giants brass. An OPS in the .700 range would be a luxury for this Giants team considering his defense, and even an OPS in the mid .600 range would be tolerable. After all, he hasn't played beyond Double-A, so there is going to be a learning period for Crawford at the plate, and the Giants management and fans need to be patient as he develops.

The big issue with Crawford is his plate discipline, as he has had a tendency to strike out a lot and not draw a lot of walks to boot. In 2009, he posted BB/K ratios of 0.31 and 0.20 in San Jose and Connecticut, respectively. Last year, his BB/K ratio improved to 0.51 in Richmond, but he still struck out 26.5 percent of the time, which is uncomfortably high. This year in San Jose, he struck out 22 percent of the time, so even despite the low level for his age, he continued to have issues in terms of making contact at the plate. However, his 0.69 BB/K ratio was the best number in his minor league career, and one can hope that Crawford can transition that confidence and approach to the Majors this year.

Crawford may have been called up prematurely because of the dire need for depth in the Giants infield with Fontenot and Pablo Sandoval on the DL. That being said, this stint with the Giants will be very telling for Crawford. If he can hold his own somewhat, it'll give the Giants even more incentive to hand him the starting position next year. If not, then one could see the Giants management panic and look to deal for Jose Reyes, which would cost the Giants a lot of money in addition to some valuable prospects. I'm not expecting the world from Crawford in this callup. But if he can be a replacement-level player offensively, he could be of some value to this Giants roster because he still has room to grow and develop as a player, and he's an obvious upgrade over Miguel Tejada defensively at shortstop.

The Promise of Brandon Belt's MLB Debut Stint

Before today's 10-2 shellacking at the hands of the Rockies, the Giants activated Cody Ross of the disabled list and predictably sent down Brandon Belt to Fresno. The decision was expected after Belt's much-anticipated, but somewhat disappointing Major League debut. Despite hitting .282 with three home runs in Spring Training, Belt looked overmatched at times at the plate during the regular season and only hit .192 in 17 games.

While most people would look at Belt's callup as a bit of a failure, Giants fans have to be somewhat relieved with Belt's cup of coffee stint this year. While the average wasn't pretty (sub-.200 averages never are), a lot of his numbers were actually very promising. In 60 plate appearances, he scored seven runs, drew eight walks, hit a home run and had four RBI. His walk rate calculated to 13.3 percent, and despite striking out 13 times (a 25 percent strikeout percentage), his BB/K ratio was still solid at 0.62.

Additionally, Belt's plate discipline numbers were comforting as well. His O-swing percentage (swings outside the strike zone percentage) was 21.5 percent, which is below league average. Of course, his contact percentage was a bit below league average at 77.5 percent (league average is about 80 percent) and his swinging strike percentage was above league average at 9.5 percent (league average is around 8 percent). However, you have to remember Belt had only 61 plate appearances above Double-A going into this year. To break into the Major Leagues despite having only 61 plate appearances in Fresno, and show pretty above-average plate discipline is a testament to him as a hitter.

And yet, much like I anticipated, Belt simply hasn't developed enough yet to have an immediate impact at the next level with the Giants. His power numbers (.077 ISO) were extremely down in comparison to what we saw last year in the minors (his ISO was .286 and .333 in Richmond and Fresno, respectively), and his BABIP was low to boot (.237). While some of this could be blamed on him just being unlucky, his low line drive rate (15.7 percent) and GB/FB ratio (2.00) probably show that he was overmatched a bit and needs to regain and retool a little bit before his next Major League callup. Thankfully for Giants fans, it's early in the season and it's not farfetched to think that if Belt can regain his form and power in Fresno (which is highly possible because the PCL is notoriously known as a hitter's league), he'll be back on the Giants 25-man roster sometime in July or August.

Overall, it would have been nice to see Belt break onto the scene like Buster Posey did last year and be a favorite for the Rookie of the Year award (like some people thought). But unfortunately, those expectations were probably a little too high and unfair on Belt. Belt had less professional experience than last year's Rookie of the Year (Posey had 208 plate appearances with the Grizzlies in 2010 before he was called up), and he really never was a prospect of Posey's caliber. Posey was the fifth overall pick in the draft, had signed the highest signing bonus for a draft pick in team history, and in 2010 was the seventh-best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. Belt was a fifth-round pick and was the 23rd-best prospect going into the 2011 season (he was unranked going into last season). So the Posey-Belt comparison was probably a case of overreaching by Giants fans.

That being said, Belt still has the chance to be good, and I think he still should be the Giants' first baseman of the future as expected. The skill set is there, and the good foundation with his plate discipline is going to bode good things when he gets back to the Major League level. Furthermore, unlike Posey's situation when he was called up, there really isn't a dire need for a first baseman. Aubrey Huff is best-suited for the first base position, and our defense is a lot better with Ross and Nate Scheirholtz in right rather than Huff.

Thus, there needs to be no need to panic for Giants fans or Giants management. Belt is going to be a solid, productive player for this Giants organization down the line. He just needs a little more development (as expected), and he's still young enough and early enough in his career to go through some more development in the minors. I expect him to do well in Fresno this year, where a lot of position prospects have been fostered nicely in the last few years (Posey, Nate Schierholtz and John Bowker being prime examples...they all had very good offensive campaigns with the Grizzlies).