OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 16, Chuckie Jones, OF

The Giants sort of lucked out when it came to drafting Chuckie Jones in the 2010 draft. The St. Louis Cardinals were planning to draft the outfielder out of Boonville, Missouri in the 7th round. He was a local kid, and his role model happened to be Albert Pujols. However, the Giants swooped him up one pick earlier, and instead of going to college (he was committed to Maple Woods Community College in Missouri), he signed with the Giants.

Jones is an incredible athlete. He was a high school quarterback and played hoops, but it was obvious that baseball was the sport he was most focused on. Like many multiple high school sport athlete prospects though, Jones' baseball skills were really raw. While he had athleticism and obvious power, there were a lot of questions about his plate approach as well as his overall instincts for the game. Additionally, the fact that he wasn't more widely recruited to four-year colleges was also a question mark, since you think a college would give a shot to a kid with as much power and athleticism as Jones.

Despite the concerns though, he performed admirably in his debut season in the Arizona Rookie League. In 190 plate appearances, he hit five home runs, 47 RBI and posted a batting average of .279 and an OPS of .817 with an ISO of .182 and an extra-base hit percentage of 35 percent. He wasn't dominant of course by any means, as the concerns surrounding him when he was drafted were evident in Arizona. He struck out 61 times (a 37 percent rate) and he had a BB/K ratio of 0.33. Furthermore, defensively he showed some obvious flaws, as his RF/G was only 1.69 and he had a fielding percentage of .922 while playing mostly center field in the AZL.

Now, I know most people aren't impressed by his numbers in the AZL, and I wouldn't blame them. Matt Garroich of MLB Bonus Baby didn't exactly have the most sunny outlook about Jones as a prospect. The strikeout rate was surprisingly high, and his contact rate (63 percent) was also alarming as well, especially considering it was the AZL. That being said, I would compare Jones to Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp, who also came into the Gulf Coast League as a very raw, but athletic prospect. Here are the numbers Matt Kemp put up as an 18 year old in the GCL:

168 plate appearances, .270 average, .298 OBP, .346 Slugging, .644 OPS, .076 ISO, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 7 BB, 25 SO.

Now, Kemp is a better athlete and does have more speed and range as an outfielder than Jones. I don't think Jones could do what Kemp does in center field with the Dodgers. However, Kemp was a player with raw power, but didn't have the best plate approach. Granted, he did strike out a lower rate than Jones (16 percent), but his walk to strikeout ratio was very similar (0.28).

Jones already is off to a better start than Kemp when it comes to power (his ISO obviously shows that). Furthermore, Jones drew more walks than Kemp (who had only a 4 percent walk rate as a rookie), so Jones does have that advantage over the Dodger center fielder at this point. If Jones can hone his approach a little better and improve his strike zone recognition and batting eye (which is possible as he continues to face professional pitching), it isn't out of the question to think that Jones could bring an Kemp-like offensive upside to the Giants organization.

For those who think I might be reaching about the Kemp-comparison, here is what Baseball America said in their writeup on Jones:

"Jones doesn't bother to cut down his swing with two strikes, fanning 61 times, in 165 at-bats. But he also drew a team-high 20 walks, indicating he has some plate discipline. Despite his tender age, Jones is built like an NFL linebacker with above average throwing and running ability. He'll probably outgrow center field, but scouting director John Barr assumed the same things about Matt Kemp when he was with the Dodgers. He has enough arm strength to make right field a possibility."

Of course, this is all theory and Jones, who will begin the year in Salem-Keizer, will be challenged to adjust to better pitching as he moves up in the Giants system. Still, there is some excitement about Jones as a prospect. Baseball America ranked him as the 18th best prospect in the Giants system, and the Minor League Baseball Analyst for 2011 ranked him as the 12th best Giants prospect. You just can't discredit guys with good athleticism and power like Jones. He isn't an elite runner like some prospects who were multiple sport athletes in high school (Kemp, Carl Crawford, etc.), but he can steal a base efficiently (six stolen bases in eight attempts last year), which does heighten his value if he can continue to display this as he plays at higher levels in the minors.

Jones is as raw as it comes as a prospect, but he's extremely interesting because of his age, tools and upside. Furthermore, he's relatively under the radar, which is also intriguing because his career could go either way at this point. I'm not willing to consider him a major sleeper in the Giants system just yet (I want to see how he does in the Northwest League first), but if he can continue to display the skills he showed last year in Arizona this season in Salem-Keizer, then I wouldn't be surprised to see Jones really climb up the prospect rankings in 2012 and be on the Giants radar in a few years.

OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 17, Kendry Flores, RHP

A 19-year-old right-hander from the Dominican Republic, Kendry Flores is the kind of raw, high-upside pitcher that could either boom or bust. Yes, we have seen nice success stories of high power, high ceiling arms like Santiago Casilla (though he was brought up in the Oakland A's system to be fair), but we have also seen burnouts like Waldis Joaquin and Denny Bautista. To use Ron Shandler and Rob Gordon's grading system (It is explained in their Minor League Baseball Analyst Annuals), I would sense that Flores would grade out anywhere from a 9E to an 8D prospect (the number represents the potential while the letter represents the probability of reaching that potential).

There is some hype surrounding Flores, though it's safe to say he's a pretty unknown commodity around baseball circles, not surprising considering he has only played one season in the United States (last year in the Arizona Rookie League). While John Sickels ranked him the 13th best prospect in the Giants system (he graded him as a C+ prospect), Baseball America overlooked him on their Top 30 Rankings for the Giants system in their 2011 prospect handbook (though to me, he's a better prospect than outfielder Darren Ford and catcher Johnny Monell). Even amongst the Giants blogosphere there are some mixed feelings about Flores' ceiling. SF Dugout, a Giants Online Magazine, ranked him as the 34th best prospect in the Giants system, while Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town had him as the 18th best Giants prospect.

Why such fluctuation? Well...he's incredibly young and we have such little statistical data to lean on in terms of evaluating him. Even if you include his Dominican Summer League numbers, he has just pitched 121 innings of professional ball and only 55 of those innings were seen stateside. Thus, Flores may be a good prospect with a high ceiling in the Jorge Bucardo-mold. He just isn't getting as much attention as Bucardo simply because what we have to evaluate Flores is such a small sample size.

But what do we do know about Flores? In terms of reports on mechanics and stuff...well...not that much. He does sport a nice frame that he will easily grow into (he's six-foot, two inches tall and weighs 175 pounds), and Dr. B notes that Flores "has fastball in the low-mid 90's with a pretty good changeup and a slurvy breaking ball." It is probably expected that some more scouting reports will surface once Flores debuts this season. As of now, he is in extended Spring Training and is probably going to start the year in the Northwest League with the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes. The Giants are definitely taking it slowly with him, which may not be a bad thing to do considering he is just 19 years old and has just two years of professional baseball experience (and only one year of AMERICAN professional baseball experience).

In terms of what he has done as a professional statistically, Flores has been stellar. As a 17-year-old in the DR, he made 13 starts and pitched 66 innings while striking out 57 batters. He showed decent control (3.8 BB/9) and command (2.38 K/BB ratio), but the best aspect of the game was that he induced groundballs (1.81 GB/FB ratio) and minimized the hits, as his hit rate was only 6.1 per nine innings in 2009.

In his first year in the states, his command and strikeout ability improved, though he did get batted around a little bit more in the Arizona Rookie League. Just 18-years-old in the AZL, he made 11 starts and two relief appearances and pitched 55 innings total for the season. In those 55 IP, Flores struck out 56 batters (a 9.2 K/9) and allowed only 13 walks (a 2.1 BB/9). His K/BB ratio was a very promising sign (4.31), as it was an almost two point improvement from his professional debut season in the DSL. That being said, the hits did go up a little as he sported a hit rate of 8.0 (a 1.9 increase from the DSL) and the groundball-flyball ratio did regress a little (1.27), but he did sport a high BABIP (.320), so you could argue that hitters got a little lucky on him in terms of finding balls for hits in the AZL.

Dr. B had a nice writeup on him and here's a nice paragraph that sums up what Flores has done as a professional so far in the past two years:

"I had Kendry Flores on my Dominican Dandies list last year after a fine 17 yo campaign in the DSL: 7-2, 2.18, 66 IP, 24 BB, 57 K, GO/AO- 1.85. He handled the advancement to the states with aplomb improving on his K/9 and BB/9 in the process. His last 10 games were especially sparkling: 5-2, 1.47, 43 IP, 6 BB, 41 K's. The first thing I look at in the stat lines of a young pitching prospect is K/9, but the second is BB/9. While Kendry's K/9 is certainly adequate, it's the great control for a kid so young that really jumps out at you."

I ranked Flores at No. 17 mainly because I'm intrigued by his potential. He has pitched pretty well for a young, starting pitcher in the DSL and AZL, but he has performed admirably in limited stints at very low levels. While the Northwest League isn't a major step up, it is still better competition nonetheless. Flores' stock as a prospect from here on out will probably ride on how well he adjusts to Northwest League hitters in 2011.

Additionally, I'm not sure if Flores will stay a starting pitcher. As with a lot of Latin American arms in the Giants system, there is a possibility that he may be transitioned to the pen in due time, much like Henry Sosa. However, there simply isn't enough information out there right now to make the assumption that the Giants are going to move him to the pen, so as for now I'm viewing him as a starting pitching prospect at this point.

The Northwest League begins on June 17th, as the Volcanoes will open the season on the road against the Spokane Indians (a team I'm fond of because I actually used to live in Spokane and I went to college at Gonzaga University). Right now, all Giants fans can hope for is that Flores is making the necessary strides  in extended Spring Training to get him ready for his stint in Salem-Keizer. He's an interesting pitcher, with some intriguing tools and a solid professional history so far, and hopefully, he'll continue to develop as a pitcher as he transitions to Short-Season ball.

What Happened to Aaron King?

Left handed pitcher Aaron King was one of those prospects I paid close attention to a couple of years ago, and have tried to follow since. Unfortunately, much like his potential as a prospect, news about him had faded quite a bit.

King came out of junior college in 2008, and was drafted in the 7th round of the 2008 MLB Draft. The raw left-handed pitcher was known for his stuff, as reports liked his low sinking fastball that went in the low 90's, and had potential to gain velocity over time, according to Baseball Intellect writer Alex Eisenberg. There were some issues with his mechanics and delivery though, as noted by Eisenberg in his write-up:

"For one, King doesn't use momentum and gravity the best way he can. He's tall-and-fall in his wind-up, meaning he stops his wind-up as the knee reaches it's upper most point and then falls toward home plate. I would like him to drift through that balance point. Madison Bumgarner is a good example of this...

I also can't say I'm crazy about his arm action--I've never been a fan of upside down arm actions. Nor do I like his cross-body throwing motion and abrupt finish. So he has a lot to work on. No coach is going to able to "fix" all his problems, but they need to work with him ensure his mechanics are as efficient as possible."

Despite the mechanics issues, the Giants still remained high on the 19-year-old, as he was considered a project that had high-risk, high reward potential.

In Arizona Rookie League, he put up some sterling performances, showing a great ability to make batters whiff. In 31.2 IP, King struck out 41 batters and allowed 24 hits. However, there were major control issues, as he walked 15 batters in Arizona.

Despite the high amount of walks, his strong performance in 2009 earned him some recognition. Eisenberg ranked him the 13th-best prospect in the Giants system, grading him as a C+ prospect at the time. The main consensus was that if King could ever figure out the control problems, he'd be at the very least a good major league reliever in the Dan Runzler mold.

His first full season in the pros though proved to be a bit of a struggle. He made the jump to the Sally, and pitched 104.2 innings with Augusta, making 22 starts and posting an ERA of 3.70. He still proved to be hard to hit, as he had a 7.7 H/9 and maintained a good K/9 for a starting pitcher at 7.6. The walks did not go away though, as he allowed 52 free passes and posted a BB/9 of 4.5 and a K/BB ratio of 1.69. Furthermore, he also threw 12 wild pitches and hit five batters, the kind of numbers that are almost "Nuke Laloosh"-esque.

Wildness-issues aside, King still garnered attention from the baseball world going into 2010.  He was only going to be 21 in 2010, which still gave him time to develop as a pitcher. Baseball America ranked him as the 28th best prospect in the Giants system and John Sickels positioned him as the 13th best prospect in the Giants system, grading him as a C+ prospect going into the year.

While he was solid in 2009 in Augusta, King got off to a disastrous start in San Jose. He started seven games and pitched 27.1 innings, but he was far from effective, as he allowed 29 hits, 25 runs and 16 walks. After the slow start, the Giants assigned him to extended Spring Training in Arizona, to work on some issues, and then assigned him to Salem Keizer for the remainder of the season, primarily as a reliever. King performed a lot better in the Northwest League, pitching 20.1 innings and allowing only seven runs and seven hits. However, the walk problems were worse than ever, as he walked 29 batters, a 12.6 per nine innings rate. He did strike out 31 batters, but the punch outs couldn't hide the control issues this time around, as he finished the year with a 1.07 K/BB ratio, his lowest mark in his professional career.

The demotion to the Northwest League and control problems hurt King's stock as a prospect. He was left off Baseball America's Top-30 list this season, and he was also left off Sickels' list after ranking so high the previous year. Furthermore, King hasn't been assigned to any team this year, which makes one wonder if he has an injury, is going back to the Northwest League (they start the season later) or perhaps is out of professional ball all together. When the Giants Come to Town blogger Dr. B Giants Fan had this to say after ranking him No. 41 in his prospects list going into 2010:

"He's been in the organization awhile, but was drafted out of JC ball and will still be just 22 next season. He has some time to figure things out, but clearly still has a long ways to go. Maybe he needs to spend more time with Steve Kline in Augusta who helped Dan Runzler get a leash on the ol' heater?"

If King does pop up on a team sometime soon (I'm guessing he could start the year in Salem-Keizer again just to work on his control), it'll be interesting to see if he could ever bounce back after a really poor 2010. There is some things to like about King: he's relatively young, athletic, has a good frame and proven at every level he can strike batters out (even in his short-lived campaign in the California League, he still could make batters miss). That being said, there are a lot of negatives (questionable mechanics, control, struggles in his promotions, etc.) that don't have me as optimistic as before. His ceiling right now is a middle-reliever at best, though if I have to guess right now, he'll probably live up to that potential in the minors more often than in the majors in an Alex Hinshaw/Merkin Valdez way.