OTF Top 30: No. 2, Joe Panik, SS/2B

No. 2: Joe Panik, Shortstop/Second Baseman



Age: 21 years old
Drafted: First round (29th overall) in the 2011 Draft
College: St. John's (NY)
2011 Regular Season numbers: .341 average, .401 OBP, .467 slugging, .868 OPS, .403 wOBA, 144 wRC+, 49 runs scored, 6 home runs, 13 stolen bases (Short Season)
2011 Fall/Winter League numbers: .323 average, .394 OBP, .473 slugging, .867 OPS, .389 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 6 runs scored, 2 home runs, 0 stolen bases (AFL)


Why you should know about Panik:

The much maligned pick in the 29th slot, Panik has come a long way to prove his doubters wrong in such a short period of time. Many experts expected Panik to go somewhere late in the supplemental round or even the second, but the Giants swooped him up late in the first round and after signing early, he came on with a vengeance in Salem Keizer, proving to be one of the Northwest League's better hitters. Panik doesn't wow scouts with his athleticism or tools, but his stat lines and disciplined plate approach in college and as a professional have started to make some doubters into believers.



What Are Panik's Strengths as a Prospect?

Without a doubt, Panik has a very sound approach at the plate. It was his calling card as a prospect in college at St. John's, and he has seamlessly transitioned that excellent plate discipline to the professional level, as evidenced by his stints in the Northwest League and Arizona Fall League. At St. John's, Panik posted BB/K ratios of 1.81, 2.24 and 1.83 his last three years with the Red Storm, and in 304 plate appearances with the Volcanoes, he sported a ratio of 1.12. However, it's not just his ability to take walks that has experts and scouts turning their heads, but he has showed an impeccable ability to make contact as a hitter. He averaged a 91 percent contact rate in college, and his contact rate was also 91 percent in his stint in the NWL last season. Hence, it comes as no surprise that Panik is going to be a threat to be a high-average hitter, and that was the case last year as he posted batting averages of .398 and .341 at St. John's and Salem Keizer, respectively. (And if that wasn't enough, Panik earned the Northwest League batting title with his .341 average; not bad for a guy who was playing college ball the same year.)

In addition, while the batting average numbers are nice, Panik has showed some glimpses of power for a middle infielder. At St. John's, he belted 20 homers combined in his last two years, as well as slugging percentages of .621 and .642 his last two years as an amateur. While the power dipped when he made the transition to wooden bats (as expected for most, if not all, college prospects), it still remained solid for a middle infielder, as he posted a slugging of .467 in the NWL and .473 with the Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League. While Panik isn't going to post Tulowitzki or even Utley-like numbers, he certainly could be a threat for 10-15 home runs on an annual basis.

Defensively, while he doesn't sport a ton of athleticism, scouting reports have remarked that he is still an above average defender that can hold his own in the field. Rob Gordon of the 2012 Minor League Baseball Analyst rated his glove a 3 plus out of 5 and that he gets the most out of his abilities. In the NWL, he also flashed a 4.59 RF/G and .964 fielding percentage, not bad considering it was his first year as a professional.


Where Might Panik Struggle?

The disparity in Panik's rankings is a classic case of the "scouts vs. stats" argument when evaluating prospects. On paper, Panik looks like a stud. He gets on base, he hits for high average, he has good power for a middle infielder, and he shows a patient approach along with a strong ability to make contact at the plate. When you look at his numbers, not only does he look like an everyday player, but he also has the potential to be an All-Star middle infielder.

However, the scouts aren't as kind. Keith Law was adamant against the pick on draft day, and even though he warmed up a little to him after his Northwest League campaign, Law still doesn't feel he is a very high caliber prospect (he believes that Panik is a utility player at best). To be honest, from a scouting standpoint, one can understand where Law, and a lot of other baseball experts come from. If you ever watch him on tape, nothing about Panik stands out. His swing is good, but it's not the kind of smooth motion one would expect from a .300-plus hitter. Furthermore, he doesn't look all that athletic, and defensively, nothing he does is very impressive. He doesn't have a cannon, his glove isn't especially quick, you feel like his footwork could be better, etc. If you look at him on video, you would think he was a fourth or fifth round prospect, not a former first rounder.

And that is what makes Panik's upcoming year so intriguing. He's dominated in college and in the Northwest League and in the Arizona Fall League despite having average to slightly above average tools at best. Hence, one has to wonder if the numbers will start to regress wants he faces more talented pitching and better competition. Scouts would say he will regress, while the stat "guys" would say his approach will lead to sustainable success. At this point though, we as Giants fans wouldn't probably know until he hits the field wherever he should be on Opening Day (should it be Augusta or San Jose, but most likely San Jose).


Grades on Panik's Tools

Hitting for Average/Contact ability: 19/20 (He hit for high average in college and high average in the NWL and the AFL. In the hitter friendly Cal League, he should be able to sustain that success. However, watching his swing in person prevents me from giving him a perfect score. That being said, the numbers don't lie, and Panik should be a perennial threat for .300 over his minor league career.)
Plate Approach: 19/20 (Probably the best aspect of Panik's game. The league average BB/K ratio is usually 0.50. Panik posted over double that ratio in his first stint of professional ball. While I think his gaudy BB/K ratios won't carry as he moves up the system, he should be a guy who's consistently getting on base and setting himself up to score runs.)
Power: 14/20 (While he has posted some gaudy slugging percentages for a middle infielder in college and in the NWL and AFL, Panik's power potential doesn't seem very high. He has a nice swing that will provide some surprising pop, but he probably has a ceiling of about 10-15 home runs, and even that is being generous. He definitely has some gap to gap power, but it'll be interesting to see how his power progresses as he moves up to High-A and Double-A ball. It is probably more realistic to think that his slugging will hover in the .420-.440 range as he progresses in the Giants system.)
Speed: 16/20 (Panik is not a burner on the basepaths or in the field. He is opportunistic while on the bases, as evidenced by his 13 stolen bases with the Volcanoes. That being said, he was far from perfect, as he was caught five times. Panik could be an occasional threat on the basepaths, especially considering how often he gets on base. Still though, his speed is probably average at best.
Defense: 17/20 (Judging from scouting reports and what I have seen on tape, it's obvious that Panik's days at shortstop are limited. With Crawford at the Major League level, and Adrianza and Carter Jurica much more highly heralded defensive prospects, Panik probably would be better suited for the keystone position. As a second baseman though, his defense would most likely hold up well and his lack of arm strength wouldn't be as exposed as it would at shortstop (which is why I grade him a 17; if he stays at SS, it's probably a 16 or even as low as 15). Furthermore, with Nick Noonan flaming out, Charlie Culberson's future questionable, and Brock Bond most likely a Four-A player, second base would be a prime opportunity for Panik to move quickly in the Giants system.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 19/20 (Panik showed a lot by signing quickly after draft day. displaying he is interested in playing baseball rather than negotiating a higher paycheck. After all the negative attention about being "overdrafted," he took care of business and probably had the best season out of anyone drafted in the 2011 draft. So far, Panik hasn't had any injury issues of note and he had the reputation of being a gamer both with the Volcanoes and at St. John's, which definitely sits well in his favor.


Overall grade: B+
Projection: Starting Major League Second Baseman; has the potential to be a solid, though not spectacular contributor.

Summary: Panik has everything I would want from a middle infielder prospect: an excellent plate approach, a little bit of pop, decent defense, and passable speed. Is he spectacular? No. Will his tools wow you? Heck no. Is he going to be a perennial All-Star? Most likely not. However, keep this in mind: Kolten Wong was rated as one of the best middle infielders in the draft last year, and Panik pretty much went toe to toe last year with Wong on a statistical basis. However, Kolten Wong signed for $1.5 million. Panik? He went for $1.1 million. So, the Giants saved $400 K and pretty much got the same player on paper. Panik is going to be the kind of "value" player in my mind, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him continue to give the Giants value on investment as he progresses in the Giants system.

Update to the Brett Pill OTF Report: Switch to the Middle Infield?

Obsessive Giants Compulsive just let me know about this development in a comment on the Brett Pill post I wrote earlier today. Basically, Pill has played in eight games this year at second base, and there is some speculation that he may make the move to the position on a more permanent basis. With Brandon Belt and Travis Ishikawa currently on the Fresno roster, it makes sense for both the Grizzlies and Pill.

In terms of how it benefits the Grizzlies? Well, Belt is their best hitter obviously, and the Grizzlies and Giants organization need him to play everyday. That being said, while it would be good to get him some experience in the outfield to make him more versatile when he eventually gets called up again this year (he's not staying in Fresno for long, folks), he still is the Giants' first baseman of the future. Furthermore, while Ishikawa may not have much upside in terms of contributing to the Major League roster (I think it's safe to say he's probably a career Major League backup at this point), he should be in the Grizzlies lineup everyday, and mixing him and Belt up between first base and the outfield is the best way to give both of these offensive threats at-bats.

As for Pill, well, if you have to choose between Belt, Ishikawa and Pill for the first base position, Pill is probably the odd man out. He just doesn't have the power upside that Belt and Ishikawa have. However, OGC made a great point about Pill moving to second base on a perhaps more permanent basis:

"...If Pill can be converted to also play 2B, that would increase his value on the bench, because his hitting is OK for a 2B, not so much for a guy who can only play 1B. He could be like an Uggla where you give up defense to get the offense at best, though more likely a nice bat off the bench who can play multiple positions."

I like that Uggla comparison. Not because I expect Pill to be the next Dan Uggla (Uggla showed more power, and Uggla struck out a heck of a lot more in the minors; he had a 20 percent strikeout rate in his five seasons in the minors), but because I think Pill's offense is enticing when you look at it his numbers through a second-baseman's lens. As a first baseman? Pill probably projects to have Daric Barton power without the Daric Barton plate patience. As a second baseman though? His ability to make contact and hit 10-16 home runs and rack in a lot of doubles, would make him an intriguing middle-infield option, not to mention one of the better offensive middle infielder prospects in the Giants system at this moment along with Charlie Culberson and Brandon Crawford. (I'm just talking currently though, for there are infield prospects in the Giants system who obviously have higher ceilings than Pill; he's just one of the few that's closest to being Major League-ready.)

Of course, his offense will have to make up for what he'll give up defensively. In eight games so far this year, he has been decent in terms of making the routine plays (only one error in 32 chances), but he hasn't shown an incredible range (3.88 RF/G). This may be him getting just used to the position, but at six-foot, four-inches and 201 pounds, one has to wonder if Pill is athletic enough to be an average second baseman defensively.

This sudden position change makes Pill's prospect status a little more interesting, but I'm still keeping him at No. 22. He could rise if he continues his offensive production (specifically the power numbers) and manages to be decent defensively. With the Giants experiencing a ton of problems in the infield with Miguel Tejada's ineffectiveness and Pablo Sandoval's injury, Pill might be an enticing option to Giants management if he can develop defensively at the second base position.

The interesting thing though is how Pill's status at second base will be affected with the return of Emmanuel Burriss and Ryan Rohlinger to Fresno (both utility infielders). While the Pill experiment is an interesting development to pay attention to (simply because you want to maximize his value as a player and prospect), it may end sooner than expected, simply because Burriss and Rohlinger are players who are expected to get at-bats with the Grizzlies. I'm curious to see what direction manager Steve Decker will take with Pill.

In my opinion, the Giants organization (Not to mention Pill's professional career) would probably benefit more from this experiment at second base than plugging Pill back at first. We know what to expect from Rohlinger and Burriss in the middle infield and in the lineup. You can't say the same thing with Pill. It could be a bust, sure. But then again, there could be some surprising upside with Pill's position switch, and that certainly wouldn't hurt the Giants in the near future (especially considering Pill is on the 40-man roster).