Can 2012 Be Bounce Back Campaigns for Juan Perez and Nick Noonan?

Wow...12 days. Can't really apologize for that long a lay-off, especially considering my history (it would be like Rick Pitino apologizing for another relationship out of wedlock). But, with school being what it is here, and my responsibilities to Seedlings 2 Stars, posting here has been more difficult than usual. Hopefully though, I can get back into the swing of things here at OTF. I will be having a recap of general Minor League performances later this week, and should finish off the rankings for good. Of course, considering my inconsistencies with posting, I will make no guarantees (though I will make guarantees to bitch about how much I'm frustrated with the Brandon Belt situation on Twitter...sorry it couldn't be helped).

Two players who have really jumped out to me to begin the year in 2012 are Juan Perez and Nick Noonan. Both were Top-30 prospects according to Baseball America going into 2011 who fell out of the rankings after lackluster years in Double-A Richmond. However, they have regrouped to have solid starts to begin the 2012 year and one has to wonder if they are in the process of regaining their once-lofty prospect statuses. That being said, are their starts legitimate signs of progress? Or are they just good months that are flashes in the pan?

Let's take a look on the outlook for Perez and Noonan for the remainder of the season.


Juan Perez, Outfielder

Age: 25
Current Team: Richmond Flying Squirrels

2012 numbers: .317 average, .359 OBP, .400 slugging percentage, .759 OPS, 10 runs scored, one home run, three stolen bases, three walks, 14 strikeouts in 64 plate appearances (through 16 games).


Why is Perez's Hot Start Promising?

A late-blooming prospect (Perez didn't break into professional ball until he was 23), Perez has the makings of an Andres Torres-esque player (and I liked Torres a lot when he was a Giant). Despite his diminutive stature (he's five-feet, 11 inches and a 185 pounds), he sports decent pop in his bat (he hit 13 home runs in San Jose in 2010) and good speed on the basepaths (he stole 22 bases on 28 attempts in 2011 in Richmond). Even though he struggled in the transition from the California League to the Eastern League last year (he posted a slash of .256/.303/.381 in 497 plate appearances), he has bounced back in a repeat campaign this year, as he is sporting a slash of .317/.359/.400 through 17 games.

With Gary Brown struggling on the offensive end, Perez has been the main catalyst for the Flying Squirrels offense, as he has scored 10 runs and stolen three bases on four attempts. He also has a home run and two doubles, a sign that the power that he displayed in the California League in 2010 wasn't a complete fluke. While it is still early in the year, the solid start in his second year in the EL, along with a good campaign in Spring Training bodes good things for Perez who fell off the radar after the 2011 season. If he continues to build on this solid start, he could be a candidate to move up to Fresno at some point this year, especially if someone gets injured in the Giants outfield.


What Should Giants Fans Expect from Perez for the Remainder of 2012?

Despite the gaudy slash line, Perez's performance has been far from perfect. The biggest concern has been his eye at the plate, which has been raw and unrefined as a professional. Last year, Perez posted a BB/K ratio of 0.29 and this year hasn't been better, despite his familiarity with Eastern League pitching. His BB/K ratio is currently 0.21, highlighted by 14 strikeouts. Add this with a contact rate of 76 percent, and one has to wonder if Perez will ever be able to make consistent enough contact as a professional to be a legitimate Major League player.

That being said, those aspects were concerns of Torres as a professional. However, pre-injury, Torres was able to be a productive player for the Giants during their 2009 and 2010 campaigns. While Torres had a much more patient eye at the plate than Perez, he was also older (Torres was in his early thirties prior to his breakout) and actually was around the same percentage contact-wise. Sans his 2010 campaign in San Jose where he was caught 15 times on 32 attempts, Perez has sported solid speed and efficiency on the basepaths and could be at the very least a platoon player at the Major League level in addition being a solid pinch-running option off the bench. There still is a long way to go for Perez, but his solid April in Richmond is a promising start for the 25-year-old outfielder.



Nick Noonan, Infielder

Age: 22
Current Team: Fresno Grizzlies

2012 numbers: .333 average, .370 OBP, .381 slugging, .751 OPS, 5 runs scored, 1 stolen base, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts in 46 plate appearances.


Why is Noonan's Hot Start So Promising?

Noonan was once a top prospect who held Chase Utley comparisons until he started struggling at the plate starting in 2009 in San Jose. After two lackluster campaigns in Richmond (his Double-A career slash is .226/.290/.297), the Giants decided to move Noonan up to Triple-A to give him a change of pace and scenery. So far, the move has paid off, as Noonan has put up a .751 OPS in 13 games (his previous high OPS was .727 in 2009 in San Jose).

The biggest improvement for Noonan to begin the 2012 year has been his plate approach, as he is currently sporting a BB/K ratio of 0.75. Noonan has always produced good approaches at the plate, for he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.67 and 0.55 in San Jose and Richmond, respectively in 2011. However, considering his campaigns in San Jose and Richmond were repeats of those levels, the fact that he is carrying his disciplined approach to the next level is a promising sign. Furthermore, Noonan has displayed a strong ability to make contact against Pacific Coast League pitching, as his contact rate currently sits at 90 percent for the year. Considering that his career contact rate in Double-A was 78 percent, this is a nice indicator that Noonan is finally honing his approach and abilities at the plate after so many years of disappointing performances in the minors over his professional career.


What Should Giants Fans Expect from Noonan for the Remainder of 2012?

Despite Noonan's nice start at the plate, his defensive play has been a different story. With Charlie Culberson a mainstay at the keystone position and Conor Gillaspie holding down the hot corner, Noonan has flip flopped between shortstop and third base with the Grizzlies in 2012. However, the results have not been good, as he has committed four errors already and is sporting a fielding percentage of .852. If Noonan continues to hit, it is likely that he will get more playing time and thus more opportunities in the field, which naturally will raise his fielding percentage. That being said, Noonan hasn't showed the Giants brass or Grizzlies' coaching staff that his glove merits regular playing time at a certain position so far this year.

Also, while Noonan is obviously performing much better in Triple-A than in Double-A, one has to wonder if his hot start is a true measure of improvement, or if it is proof of the old Brian Sabean-adage that "Triple-A Pitching isn't very good." While it is typical to see top position prospects see extended time in the PCL or IL (International League), the same doesn't ring true for pitchers, as top pitching prospects spend little to no time at all in Triple-A before they make the jump from Double-A to the Majors. Sure, Noonan may be hitting in Fresno, but he might be doing so against Quad-A pitchers or guys who are simply lifetime Minor Leaguers in the Matt Kinney and Kevin Pucetas mold.  Hence, Noonan might be able to sustain the hot start he's built in 2012. Unfortunately, unless his glove work gets better, a solid 2012 campaign might not be a sign that he's ready for the Major Leagues, but rather an example of why PCL stats (especially ones in Fresno) should always be taken with a grain of salt.

Richmond and San Jose Set 2012 Rosters (Updated: With Giants and Grizzlies Notes to Come)

As the Giants start to figure out today who will and won't be on the active roster for Opening Day, the San Jose Giants and Richmond Flying Squirrels have already released their 2012 Opening Day rosters. This doesn't really come as too big of a surprise since both teams are opening up tomorrow. Here are some things I noticed about the rosters.

(Update as of 2:30 p.m. mountain time) The Giants just announced their 25-man roster and consequently, the Grizzlies just unveiled their roster as well. Will have another post to come. The biggest change to this post is that Ehire Adrianza is NOT going to Richmond, but Fresno after all. He is off the Squirrels' list and is now on the Grizzlies roster page. Will have thoughts on the Giants and Grizzlies in a post sometime later today 



San Jose Roster Notes

• Though there were rumors that Jarrett Parker would make the move up to Richmond with draft classmate Gary Brown, the Giants decided to keep him in High-A to start the year. The move is probably a wise one, since Parker struck out a lot at the plate, and didn't have a steady position with Brown patrolling center field. Now, he most likely will get to play his natural position of center field (his main competition is Chris Lofton, who's athletic but a lot less skilled than Parker), which should give Giants fans and scouts a gauge of how good he is defensively. Hopefully Parker can make some adjustments and cut down on the whiffs that hurt his stock so heavily last season.
• It will be quite a battle to see who'll be playing in the middle infield in San Jose. Joe Panik predictably makes the move to the California League after mashing in the Northwest League the previous season. However, he won't simply be handed the position, as he will be competing with Carter Jurica, the Giants' third round pick in 2010. Jurica has the experience factor on Panik, as he played in 50 games and put up a slash of .250/.355/.383 in 212 plate appearances for San Jose in 2011. However, Panik profiles as the better player overall, for Jurica did commit 14 errors last year at the shortstop position. The best seems to be that Jurica will start at second and Panik will be the shortstop on Opening Day.
• Despite not playing at all last year due to signing late, Ricky Oropesa will start the year in San Jose. With his power potential, he could have a big season, especially in terms of power numbers and home runs. He may strike out a lot, but I could see him having the kind of season in the Cal League that Roger Kieschnick had in 2009 in the CL.
• Some notable absences from the list were Aaron King, Michael Main, Ryan Scoma, and James Simmons, who were all released, according to this post on the McCovey Chronicles. King and Main were once top pitching prospects in the Giants and Rangers systems, respectively, but injuries and ineffectiveness have derailed their careers.

Richmond Roster Notes

• Tommy Joseph makes the move up to Double-A and it'll be interesting to see how the Giants will handle him in Richmond. The Flying Squirrels will have Johnny Monell back behind the plate, but it's obvious that more upside rests in Joseph. Because of Monell's presence, it wouldn't be surprising to see Joseph split a lot of time between catcher and first base in 2012, especially if he continues to hit in Richmond like he did in San Jose in 2011.
• The Flying Squirrels will have an interesting outfield setup with Wendell Fairley, Juan Perez and Nick Liles battling for two spots. Right now, I'd say the favorites are Perez (whom I like a lot) and Liles (whom I'm not much a fan of, but more so than Fairley) for the right and left field positions, respectively. Center field won't be up for debate as Gary Brown should and will have the position on lockdown barring injury.
• The pitching staff lacks big-time arms or names, but it should be interesting nonetheless. Michael Kickham looks like the most intriguing prospect on the Flying Squirrels staff, but don't count out Jake Dunning (who's No. 26 on my list), Justin Fitzgerald (the Squirrels' projected Opening Day starter), Austin Fleet (who could transition to more of a starter after spending most of the time in the bullpen in Augusta and Richmond last year) or Craig Westcott (who went 13-4 with a 3.42 ERA in SJ last year). They may not dominate like Eric Surkamp a year ago, but they do have some potential to have good years in the EL.
• Chris Dominguez looks slated to be the starting third baseman for the Squirrels and safe to say, it's a big year for him. He got off to a hot start last year when he made the transition from SJ to Richmond, but he struggled down the stretch and ended finishing with a .244/.272/.403 line for the year. The power potential with Dominguez is there, and his arm strength is probably the strongest out of any infielder in the Giants system. That being said, his ability to make consistent contact as a professional has been lackluster at best. At 25 years of age, he doesn't have much time left on the clock.

Prospect Highlight: Wendell Fairley, OF

With the recent news of former No. 1 overall pick Matt Bush being involved in another alcohol-induced incident, it got me thinking "Who are some high round picks in the Giants system that have really fallen off the past couple of seasons?" The two names that came to mind were Wendell Fairley and Michael Main (whom I'll be covering in another post). Bush has had serious makeup problems since he was drafted, and to be honest, while he has flashed good numbers as a converted pitcher (he used to play shortstop, but hit so poorly the Padres decided to switch him positions), I think his makeup problems (specifically alcohol issues) will prevent him from reaching even a modicum of his potential.

(On a side note: I don't understand why this guy has been given so many chances at this point in his career. This was a guy who was arrested at a high school because he showed up drunk, threatened high school kids and then was caught on video camera screaming and crying hysterically as police arrested him. Why would any team touch him, let alone two teams with very smart general managers in the driver's seats? (Though to be fair, Toronto booted him after he broke their zero-tolerance policy they agreed upon when he signed with the Jays; at this point, I think Tampa is probably going to follow suit, especially since they already have some heat on them from acquiring Josh Lueke, a pitcher who allegedly raped someone. Having Lueke, and a guy who apparently hit and run a 72-year-old man on a motorcycle while drunk on the same roster would be a PR nightmare, and Tampa has enough problems drawing fans to the park.)

But, to my knowledge, Fairley and Main's issues have simply been ineffectiveness at the professional level, so at least they have that going for them, unlike Bush. That being said, they did come as highly touted picks, and they have hardly lived up to their Draft Day press clippings during their minor league careers so far. Can 2012 be a break out for the both of them, where they finally capture at least SOME of the hype that made them such highly merited first round choices? Or are these two probably destined to be fringe prospects in the Billy Rowell-mold?

Let's take a look at Fairley in this post. I'll try to take a stab at Main in one of the next ones sometime this weekend.


Wendell Fairley, outfielder



Age: 24
Minor League service time: Three years.
Highest level played: Double-A (Richmond)
Career minor league stat line: .263 average, .347 OBP, .334 slugging, .681 OPS, 167 runs scored, eight home runs, 24 stolen bases in 367 games and 1,419 plate appearances. 
Overall Grade: C-/D+ (Leaning more toward latter grade though)
Projection: Backup outfielder; maybe career minor league player.


Why Has Fairley Been Disappointing?

When drafted in the Giants' pick-heavy 2007 draft, many felt that the Giants got a good steal with Fairley in the 29th slot. Keith Law remarked that Fairley had middle-of-the-first round potential in the draft, but went lower because of signability and some makeup issues (apparently, he had a kid when he was a senior in high school, which to be honest, isn't really all that uncommon with a lot of athletes). A lot of the reports on Fairley were very sterling, as scouts raved about his "five tool" potential as well his athleticism. According to OGC's draft day profile on Fairley, scouts remarked that he had "the ability to hit for average and plus power" and that he was a "plus runner" and had defensive skills "perfect for center field."

However, there were some concerns about Fairley's game from people, even on draft day. For starters, Fairley was a two sport athlete in high school who also concentrated heavily on football (he was widely recruited by colleges as a wide receiver), and hence, he wasn't as widely known by scouts because of his dual-sport commitments. Also, while sporting "five tool" potential, many experts and people in the Giants organization (even Brian Sabean) admitted that he was very raw and that it would take some time for him to develop into those tools. Still, despite some concerns, the vibe surrounding Fairley's selection was overall very positive, as said in OGC's post:

"He sounds like the best position prospect that we have had in ages (well, at least before Villalona; won't they make a nice pair of call-ups in 4-6 years, or less?) and he helps makes up for the fact that we passed up a few premier position talents in Dominguez, Heyward, and Mills, particularly Heyward since I've seen a number of descriptions of him being remniscent of Willie McCovey. He's noted as a Top 10-15 pick by talent so he's equivalent enough to them to satisfy me - and I do like Bumgarner and Alderson and the fact that Sabean and Tidrow both noted that they are on the fast track and could advance to the majors in as short as 2 years, so despite them not being college players, they could provide return to the Giants in perhaps even a shorter timeframe, few prospects make the majors in 6 years, let alone 2 years. And there's no way the Giants would have gotten anyone as good as Bumgarner in the 29th pick had they selected any of those three hitters."

Despite the lofty praise and excitement, Fairley's high point seemed to be draft day and it's been downhill since. He held his own in 52 games in the Arizona Rookie League in 2008, posting a .363 wOBA, but his wOBA was mostly helped by a .388 OBP and a BB/K ratio of 0.70. In terms of actually hitting the ball, his numbers were very mediocre, as he hit only .259 and posted a slugging of .337 with only two home runs in 238 plate appearances. So, while Fairley did show a good approach at the plate his first season in Rookie Ball, his lackluster ability to hit for average or show any power in Arizona was a bit of a warning sign.

All that came into fruition in his first two full years of professional ball. In Single-A Augusta in 2009, he posted a slash of .243/.323/.333 in 390 plate appearances. Not only did he show little ability to hit for average or power in the Sally (only one more home run despite 152 more plate appearances), but he didn't showcase any of the speed that made scouts grade him a "plus runner" on draft day (only two stolen bases on six attempts). While he did pick it up offensively in San Jose in 2010, improving his slash to .292/.362/.343 in 440 plate appearances, the complete lack of power (one home run all year) and questionable baserunning skills (10 stolen bases on 16 attempts) made him an afterthought in most Giants prospects lists.

The Giants had him repeat the year in San Jose in 2011, and though he struggled in his second Cal League campaign (he posted a .245/.329/.317 slash in 242 plate appearances), the Giants still promoted him to Richmond toward the end of the year. Despite the change to the pitcher-friendly environments of the Eastern League, Fairley actually performed a lot better in the EL in 2011 than in the CL, posting a slash of .265/.321/.337 with a .657 OPS in 109 plate appearances. Still though, 2011 provided more of the same: a lot of empty singles and not much extra on the basepaths (only five stolen bases the whole year).

When you look at him in person, Fairley seems to have an athletic presence, but he doesn't 'wow' you in the way a typical "five tool" type would. He's not blazing, his frame isn't incredibly strong looking, and his swing is very constricted and illustrates why he has never posted a slugging in the .400 range over his career. He has a slap hitter's swing that makes him a groundball machine. One would hope that management and instruction has tried to work with him on this, but after four years, one has to wonder how much has been taught and how much has changed. From what I've seen from when he first started playing professional ball, not a lot has progressed in terms of swing mechanics, which makes me think Fairley's power ceiling and ability to hit extra base hits will sort of stay where it is (i.e. very low).


Is There Still Hope for Fairley?

To be honest, Fairley is one of those prospects that's really hanging on the edge right now in terms of projection. If I have to guess where he ends up, I would probably say he's a career minor leaguer with maybe a backup or utility role in the outfield being his ceiling at this point. He doesn't hit for average, doesn't hit for power, doesn't steal bases, doesn't play excellent defense (he projects more as a corner infielder at this point) and doesn't exactly have the best eye at the plate (though he does seem to adjust with more exposure to pitching, as his BB/K ratio improved in his second year in San Jose). All those are factors that are heavily working against his potential and chances in terms of being a Major League player.

However, to be honest, his slash lines haven't been as bad as I initially thought, and Giants fans had to expect Fairley to struggle like this to start out his career. He was so raw when he was drafted that to expect him to come out and mash would be foolish.Yes, the power and speed hasn't developed as well as hoped, but the averages and OBP numbers still give glimmers of hope that he can have some kind of utility for the Giants organization in the future. The glimmer is small and unlikely to project into anything, but to say Fairley is done at 24 years old and after only four seasons (including only 34 games in Double-A) would be a bit rash at this point.

There is a lot for Fairley to overcome. To be honest, there are a lot more outfield prospects in the lower minors levels of the Giants system who are younger and with more upside than Fairley at this point, so he has to do a lot to hold them. Minor injuries have seemed to take its toll on Fairley over his career, as was the case last year where he was limited to only 95 games. So, if Fairley can stay healthy and be somewhat effective in Richmond again, there is hope that he can rebound his status as a prospect in 2012. He won't jump up on any Top 30 lists going into 2013, but if he can have a bounce back year where he can post a .270/.340/.380-esque slash, then Fairley will suddenly be an interesting prospect again in the Giants system and not just the "first round" bust he's been known as the past couple of seasons.

Is It Time to Give Up on Nick Noonan?

Probably one of the most interesting non-roster invites to Spring Training has to be Nick Noonan. I find it mostly intriguing because he doesn't fit the mold of the typical Spring Training invite: he's not a top prospect anymore (e.g. not Gary Brown), he's not a castoff (e.g. not Brian Burres or Gregor Blanco), he hasn't been in the minors tremendously long (e.g. not Matt Yourkin), and he's not a fringe pitching prospect who is being looked at because he could eat innings should somebody on the 40-man get hurt or fall off a cliff (e.g. not a Justin Fitzgerald or David Quinowski).

Noonan was a top draft pick (Supplemental round pick in the 2007 draft) and prospect in the Giants system after he had a tremendous season in Rookie Ball in 2007 as an 18-year-old. In 224 plate appearances in the Arizona Rookie League, Noonan posted a slash of .316/.357/.451 along with a .809 OPS and .390 wOBA. Considering his age (just out of high school) and his position (middle infield), many Giants fans and baseball analysts thought Noonan had all the makings of a stud-in-waiting. In fact, after his 2008 campaign, many Giants fans were comparing Noonan to Chase Utley, with the hope that Noonan had that kind of star potential and toolset after such a solid first professional season.

In Augusta the next year, his numbers regressed a little, but there was little alarm with the dip. For starters, Noonan was young for the league at 19 (the average age of hitters in the Sally that year was 21.6), and he still posted good numbers for a second baseman with a slash line of .279/.315/.415 and an OPS of .730. That being said, there was a little concern with Noonan's approach, as his BB/K ratio fell from 0.60 in 2008 to 0.23 in 2009. What hurt his BB/K ratio the most was the increase in strikeouts as his his K rate rose from from 8.9 percent in the AZL to 18.4 percent in the Sally. Of course, the Sally is a pitcher's league and Noonan did have more plate appearances  in Augusta than in Arizona (532 to 224), so some kind of rise in strikeouts was to be expected, especially considering his youth. Nonetheless, a 10 percent rise was alarming, especially since Noonan didn't appear to be the kind of player that would garner a ton of walks.

Noonan remained high on prospects lists going into 2009, and a breakout season was almost expected from him as he made the transition to San Jose as a 20 year old. Unfortunately, though the Cal League does tend to favor hitters, Noonan looked a bit overwhelmed as his hitting line dropped massively in High-A. In 530 plate appearances, Noonan hit only .259, with an OBP of .329, a slugging of .397 and an OPS of .727. His wOBA regressed again for the second straight year, this time to .325, a bit concerning since hitters numbers tend to inflate in the Cal League, not deflate. Noonan did show a better eye at the plate, as his walk percentage rose to 9.1 percent and his BB/K ratio improved to 0.49. That being said, the Chase Utley comparisons he garnered early on in his career started to look a little premature after his 2009 season.

Though he probably should've started the year again in High-A (his year wasn't that great, he had some flaws he needed to work on and he was still young enough to begin in San Jose), but the Giants brass deemed it necessary to move Noonan up to Double-A in 2010 along with his other 2009 San Jose teammates Roger Kieschnick, Thomas Neal and Conor Gillaspie. The move proved to be a mistake, as Noonan looked totally out of his league at the plate against Eastern League pitching. He put up a slash line of .237/.280/.304 in 406 plate appearances and posted career lows in OPS (.584) and wOBA (.266). His plate approach and eye at the plate took a step back as well in Richmond, as his BB/K ratio fell to 0.30. Without a doubt, Noonan was one of the bigger disappointments in Double-A in 2010, though to be fair, he wasn't alone and probably wasn't the biggest one that year (that honor in my opinion belonged to Kieschnick).

At 22 years old, the Giants decided to keep Noonan in Richmond to begin the year in 2011. However, Noonan didn't play much at second base, as Charlie Culberson (who tore up the Cal League in 2010) manned the position for most of the year for the Flying Squirrels. Instead, Noonan mostly played shortstop, as he played 71 games at the position in 2011. He and Culberson proved to be a good double play combo up the middle, and the position switch did give Noonan some value as it showed he had some versatility as an infielder. His fielding numbers were pretty solid (.970 fielding percentage, 4.07 RF/G), though safe to say, he's far from the best glove at the position in the Giants system (Ehire Adrianza and Brandon Crawford are clearly ahead of him as far as defense is concerned).

While the position switch proved to be valuable to Noonan's status as a prospect, the 2011 season wasn't kind again for Noonan. Though his batting eye improved (11 percent walk rate, a career high, and a 0.55 BB/K ratio), his offensive numbers didn't show much improvement (as evidenced by his .215/.306/.292 slash line). The power he showed in Rookie ball (.136 ISO) has seemed to disappear (.077 ISO in 2011) and even for a middle infielder, his bat seems sub-par to mediocre at best. Noonan did get a cup of coffee in Fresno (13 games and 41 plate appearances) and he performed respectably (.297/.366/.378 slash line), but by the end of the year, he found himself back all the way to San Jose to work on some things at the plate (he posted a .647 OPS and .291 wOBA in 135 plate appearances in San Jose).

To go from Double-A to Triple-A to High-A in the span of months is certainly disheartening for fans of Noonan. At 23 years old, he still has some youth on his side, but he's not getting any younger and he certainly has not gotten better as he's moved up the system, obvious from his disastrous campaigns in Richmond in 2010 and 2011 (though he did have a nice call up in Fresno, it was a VERY small sample). It wouldn't be surprising to see Noonan off of most Baseball Experts' Top-30 lists for the Giants system this winter, especially with infielders such as Culberson and Joe Panik making progress last year.

So, as a Giants fan, it makes one wonder: is all lost on Noonan? Some would like to think so after being demoted to San Jose in August, but Noonan did earn an invite to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee, which makes one think that Giants brass still is curious about Noonan in terms of how he will develop. Noonan may not be the Chase Utley-type most Giants fans dreamed of when he came onto the scene in Arizona in 2007, but to be honest, he still has potential to be a good utility infielder type in the Mike Fontenot-mold. Remember, he still is only 23 years old. He is only a year older than Panik, who has played less than a year of professional ball to this point. Yes, his success hasn't come recently by any stretch of the imagination, but late bloomers are common-place in baseball (see Alex Gordon in 2011) and Noonan may be a case of a.) why organizations shouldn't rush their prospects up in the system (the Mets have learned this the hard way with Lastings Milledge and Fernando Martinez) and b.) why fans shouldn't give up on players who still have a lot of playing time left in their careers. Noonan hasn't impressed, but he hasn't stunk it up to the point where one could say that there is no hope for him at all.

Of course, this Spring Training and this upcoming season will be huge for Noonan. A good showing this Spring probably will earn him one last invite to to Richmond, where it will be a crucial year for his status (if he doesn't succeed in a THIRD year in Double-A, then it probably is safe to say that he won't have much of a future in baseball, let alone with the Giants). A poor showing, and well, he could be sent back to High-A again, which would be a back-breaker in his development, especially since Panik is expected to start the year in San Jose and is also widely rumored to move to second base.

I want to believe in Noonan (which is why I didn't list this post as a "tumbler" post; he will be on the list, though very low). I think injuries and a rash rise up the system hurt him, but his improvement in his batting eye last year I think were some nice signs. Of course, the slash line has to improve in 2012, but I think he is certainly capable of posting better offensive numbers in Double-A now that he has had two mediocre years under his belt.

Are the chips stacked against Noonan to succeed as a prospect in the Giants system? No doubt about it. But is it time to give up on him? I would cool the jets on that argument until we see him play in 2012.

Farm Watch: Runzler Starting, Verdugo Sizzling, Peguero Debuts, Willoughby Steady, and DSL Begins

So for this edition of the Farm Watch, I add a new wrinkle as I will recap the week's worth of Dominican Summer League games as well. I don't know what I'm going to do with the headlines when the Arizona Rookie League and Short-Season begin, but I guess I'll deal with that bridge when I come to it.


Fresno Grizzlies, 23-33 going into June 4th

• The big story in Fresno was the promotion of Santiago Casilla and the demotion of Dan Runzler. However, while the demotion wasn't a story in itself, the subplot of Runzler being a starting pitcher with the Grizzlies was what grabbed everyone's attention. Runzler moved up quickly in the Giants system as a reliever, for in 2009, he went from Augusta all the way to the Big Leagues after dominating in the late innings in every stop in the farm system. However, the Giants are concerned about his pitch repertoire and how he has kind of plateaued a bit since his impressive callup in 2009. Runzler has only made two starts prior to this year (both rehab appearances where he only went a couple of innings) as the Giants have taken it easy with him, evidenced by the Grizzlies held him to a 40-pitch limit. He only faced eight batters on June 3rd. He walked three, but struck out two and didn't allow a hit in the limited work. The Giants are hoping Runzler can have similar success like Ryan Verdugo, who transitioned to a starter this year after being primarily used as a reliever in his minor league career.
• Marc Kroon was put in a dilemma recently, as he had an opportunity to opt out of his contract on June 1st if he didn't make the Giants roster by this time. Kroon apparently had an offer from a Japanese team (he pitched for the Yomiuri Giants and Yokohama Bay Stars in Japan), and considering he isn't on the 40-man roster, Kroon's opportunity to break into the Giants bullpen seems bleak. However, he decided to stay with the Grizzlies, with the hope that he could get a callup later in the year. The stay has paid off, as he has a 2.08 ERA in his last 10 appearances, with nine strikeouts in 8.2 IP.
• With Brandon Belt gone, Thomas Neal has picked up the slack offensively for the Grizzlies. He has continued his hot hitting, as he his currently posting an OPS of 1.013 in 83 plate appearances. Neal is an athletic, toolsy outfielder who was rated the seventh best prospect in the Giants system going into 2011 according to Baseball America. Right now, he seems to be destined to stay in Fresno until the rosters expand in September, but Neal is on the right track and is an enticing player who could bring some value to the Giants roster in the near future.

Richmond Flying Squirrels, 25-29 going into June 4th

•  The Flying Squirrels offense is continuing to struggle to score runs. How bad are they? Justin Christian, a 31-year-old journeyman outfielder is leading the team in OPS at .680. Yeah. That's some major offensive struggles. On a positive note, Christian is a nice story, as he provides a "Crash Davis-esque" presence to this Richmond roster. He went undrafted out of Southeast Missouri State and ended up playing in the Frontier League (an independent baseball league) for two years before he broke into the Minor Leagues. Christian has bounced around quite a bit in his professional career, as he has played in every level in the Yankees minor league system since 2004, and he had a brief stint with the Norfolk Tides, the Orioles' Triple-A club in 2009. Christian's at-best scenario at this point would be a callup to Fresno, but his numbers aren't exactly suggesting a promotion anytime soon.
• Remember when I said Verdugo was coming off one of his best performances of the year when he struck out 10 in 6.1 IP on May 23rd? Well, Verdugo topped that with an eight-inning, 10 strikeout performance on June 2nd. Unlike the May 23rd start though, Verdugo showed exceptional control and command as he only allowed one walk and one hit in the win. Eric Surkamp is getting all the attention in Richmond this season, but Verdugo may have the higher ceiling. He has better stuff than Surkamp, and if he can continue to show the command he showed on June 2nd, then he can certainly close that gap between himself and Surkamp soon.
• The one guy I have paid attention to closely over the past couple of years is Sharlon Schoop. Schoop made some headlines in 2009 when he played considerable innings for the Netherlands team in the World Baseball Classic (remember, the Netherlands upset the favored Dominican Republic twice). Schoop has always had an interesting tool set as a prospect and he's capable of playing multiple positions in the field, but he just hasn't put it together at the plate. Last year, he showed flashes of progress in the Eastern League, as he hit .273 with a .673 OPS in a 199 plate appearances with the Flying Squirrels. However, he has taken a tremendous step back this year, as he is hitting only .159 with a .427 OPS in 69 plate appearances. Schoop has some talent, but it often goes unrealized, and it is unlikely that he'll ever be a serious prospect in the Giants system.

San Jose Giants,  38-17 going into June 4th

• In addition to Pablo Sandoval making his San Jose return in a rehab stint, Francisco Peguero made his anticipated 2011 debut in a rehab stint of his own. Peguero is one of the Giants' top outfielder prospects, as he was rated the fourth best prospect in the Giants system according to Baseball America. In his first two games in 2011, Peguero has five hits in 10 at-bats. He also has three strikeouts, but if Peguero can continue to hit in this rehab stint, it will only be a matter of time before he makes the transition to the Eastern League. Last year, Peguero hit .329 with a .846 OPS in 538 plate appearances with San Jose. He also tallied 10 home runs, 16 triples, 19 doubles and 40 stolen bases. In terms of skill, he is a five-tool caliber player who is still relatively young (he's only 23). That being said, his plate approach will have to improve, as he only posted a BB/K ratio of 0.20 a year ago. Peguero doesn't strikeout very much (17.3 percent strikeout rate), but the walk rate is going to have to improve somewhat (3.3 percent last year) if he wants to continue to transition his Cal League success to the Eastern League and eventually Major League level.
• Ryan Cavan is starting to show that he should be a prospect of note. He is not an elite prospect by any means (he was a 16th round pick in the 2009 draft), but he is quietly having a very good year as the second baseman for the SJ Giants. He is hitting .277 with an OPS of .809 and he has has six home runs, 37 RBI and seven stolen bases on eight attempts. Cavan may be benefiting from the hitter-friendly Cal League, but he did hit .283 with an .803 OPS and added 17 home runs and 79 RBI in 608 plate appearances for the Green Jackets. Thus, Cavan is a nice middle-infielder prospect who could give Charlie Culberson and Nick Noonan a run for their money. Of course, one has to see how he does in the Eastern League first. If he shows progress in Richmond either this year or next season, Cavan could be on the fast track real quick.
• Zach Wheeler is the Giants' most dynamic pitcher, but Craig Westcott has been the most solid, as he is 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 60 IP. Westcott is old for the Cal League (he's 25 years old), and he doesn't have intimidating strikeout stuff (he only has a strikeout rate of 4.5). That being said, he displays good control (1.6 walk rate) and solid command (2.73 K/BB ratio), and has definitely been a boost to this Giants team that is positioned for another Cal League title.

 Augusta Green Jackets, 23-32 going into June 4th

• Carlos Willoughby is older than most high-profile Latin American prospects (he's 22 years old and he's only been playing in the states since last year), and he doesn't possess a lot of pop (he only has a slugging percentage of .353). However, he is a solid contact hitter who has displayed a good plate approach and plenty of speed and efficiency on the basepaths. This year he is hitting .284 with a .379 OBP and .733 OPS, and he has 23 stolen bases on 28 attempts. Willoughby's tool set reminds me of Eugenio Velez, but unlike Velez, his strike zone recognition is very good. His ability to draw a walk and get on base should make up for his lack of power, and hopefully, Willoughby will continue to progress as he moves up the Giants system.
• Adam Duvall is a big bopper. He doesn't hit for high average (his minor league average in two years is .245), and he doesn't draw walks (only 36 walks in 456 career plate appearances). However, Duvall has tremendous raw power, as he has hit 12 home runs and posted a .476 slugging percentage in 239 plate appearances this year in the Sally. Defensively, Duvall has struggled a bit at the hot corner, as he has a fielding percentage of .899 and a RF/G of 2.84. That being said, Duvall's power tool set is enticing, and could make him a bit of a sleeper prospect.
• After giving up seven runs and five hits in a May 2nd appearance, Edward Concepcion has finally regained himself over the past month. His ERA is down to 4.23, and his strikeout rate is up to 10.1 percent. The walks are still an issue (6.8 BB/9), and he still gives up a lot of hits (9.8 H/9), but Concepcion at least has showed that he is capable of bouncing back after a rough stretch. I'm not sure if he'll be a decent prospect, especially considering he's 23 and still in Single-A. However, I like his stuff and his ability to strike batters out.

DSL Giants, 5-1 going into June 4th

• Top Latin American signee Adalberto Mejia is off to a very good start in the DSL. A tall 18-year-old lefty, Mejia has only allowed six hits and one run in 11 IP. He has showed dominant stuff (10 strikeouts) as well as excellent control (only one walk) in his first two professional starts. It's early in the year of course, but considering he was the Opening Day starter for the DSL Giants, it's obvious that the Giants organization has a lot of confidence and hope in the pitching prospect. So far, he has not disappointed.
• Alberto Robles is off to a sizzling start at the plate for the DSL Giants. He is hitting .348 with an .879 OPS in 27 plate appearances. He also has showed good speed (three stolen bases), though he will have to improve his jumps (he has gotten caught three times). With four walks and only three strikeouts, Robles has displayed a good plate approach early this year, and hopefully, the 20-year-old can parlay this hot start into a solid 2011 campaign.
• The DSL Giants are 5-1 this year and have looked impressive to begin the year, especially on the pitching end. They are only allowing 1.67 R/G and they have a team ERA of 1.07, both best in the DSL. They will have to improve the hitting, as their 4.50 R/G is in the middle of the pack, but it is a small sample, and there is still plenty of games to be played in South Boca Chica for the Gigantes.

Farm Watch: Roster Turnover Hurts Grizzlies, San Jose and Richmond Climbing, Kickham off to "Kicking" Start

It's been a while, but I figured it was time to do a "Farm Watch" update. Here's a look on how things are going with the Giants minor league affiliates.



Fresno Grizzlies, 22-28 heading into May 29th

• The Grizzlies have had a lot of roster turnover lately. Emmanuel Burriss, Chris Stewart and Brandon Belt all got callups the past week, and Ryan Rohlinger and Henry Sosa were designated for assignment. All the roster change has clearly had an effect on the Grizzlies, as they have lost seven of their last 10 games. The biggest problem for the Grizzlies has been a punch-less offense, which has only averaged 4.76 R/G, fifth worst in the PCL. With catalysts like Burriss and Belt gone, the Grizzlies will depend even more on Brett Pill, Travis Ishikawa, Conor Gillaspie and Thomas Neal for offensive production.
• Speaking of Neal, he has just come off the disabled list, and he's back on track. He hit a home run on May 27th, and yesterday, he went 2-for-4 with 2 RBI and a stolen base. Neal is currently hitting .358 with a .951 OPS and two home runs, eight RBI and three stolen bases on five attempts. He has drawn only two walks in 57 plate appearances, but he has only struck out seven times, and his contact rate remains solid at 87 percent. Granted, this is a short sample, and one has to wonder how Neal will perform over the long course of the PCL season. Nonetheless, considering Neal has been floating under the radar this year with all the Brandon Belt hype, it would be nice to see Neal have a solid year in Fresno.
• One of the "bigger than people realize" stories of this latest wave of transactions has to be Henry Sosa being designated for assignment. The Giants protected Sosa from the Rule 5 Draft by adding him to the 40-man roster last year, and unfortunately, it seems like it may not have been worth it. Rule 5 draftee Joe Paterson is performing solidly with the Diamondbacks, as he has 11 strikeouts in 11.2 IP and has only allowed seven hits and one earned run. As for Sosa, he imploded in Fresno this year, as he allowed 39 hits and 30 runs in 23.1 IP, good for a 10.41 ERA. Sosa hasn't seemed to recover from the injuries that have plagued him in 2008 and 2009. His K/9 rate has significantly dropped since it was 9.3 in 2008 with San Jose, and his H/9 has climbed from 7.6 to 8.8 to 15.0 the past three years. I imagine some team is going to claim Sosa, just because he was such a decorated prospect a few years ago, so this is probably the end of Sosa's time in the Giants organization.
• He probably is going to spend the year in Fresno unless some more injuries happen (completely possible considering how things are going now), but Brad Eldred is making some noise for the Grizzlies offensively. At six-foot, six inches, and 270 pounds, Eldred is a lumbering outfielder that probably wouldn't do well defensively in AT&T Park's big dimensions. However, he has showed some skill with the bat, as he is hitting .301 with seven home runs, 14 RBI and an OPS of .971. Eldred was formerly in the Pirates and Rockies systems before being non-tendered by Colorado last year, and he has brought some pop to a Grizzlies offense that desperately needs it. Eldred isn't exactly a prospect, as he is 30 years old and currently in his seventh season in professional ball, but he looks to be an interesting bat that could help the Grizzlies this season.

Richmond Flying Squirrels, 24-24 heading into May 29th.

• The Squirrels have finally reached the .500 mark, and seem to be making strides, as they are only 2.5 games back behind the Harrisburg Senators (the Nationals' Double-A affiliate). The key to the Flying Squirrels' success has been the pitching, as they are allowing only 3.52 R/G and are posting a team ERA of 2.85, both best in the Eastern League. The starting rotation has been studly, as Eric Surkamp, Ryan Verdugo and Justin Fitzgerald have carried the staff, posting ERAs of 1.53, 2.93 and 3.14, respectively. Clayton Tanner has struggled a bit, as he is sporting an ERA of 4.84, but his K/BB ratio at 2.29 is better than Fitzgerald (1.22), so it is possible that Tanner is going through a bad stretch. With the offense a bit inconsistent (Richmond's 3.73 R/G is third-worst in the EL), so the pitching is going to have to carry the Flying Squirrels if they want to make a run for the division title.
• Kind of amazing, but the Flying Squirrels have two pitchers in Double-A who were pitching for the Giants in 2008. Osiris Matos and Alex Hinshaw have struggled immensely with control and command problems since 2009, and now they are down in the Eastern League trying to figure things out. Hinshaw has always had great strikeout stuff (career 11.1 K/9 in the minors), but he has never been able to figure out his walk problems (career 6.3 BB/9 in the minors). As for Matos, he has been solid this year in Richmond (8.33 K/BB ratio, 2.23 ERA in 32.1 IP), but at the same time, he is 26 years old and he pitched the last two years in Triple-A. He may get an opportunity to pitch in the PCL later this year, but at the same time, you wonder if Matos will be anything more than a career minor-league pitcher.
• After a slow start, Roger Kieschnick is starting to pick things up at the plate. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .316 with three doubles, a triple, a home run and five RBI. He also has two stolen bases and five walks, and is posting a .922 OPS during this recent stretch. The strikeouts are still there, as he has had 10 strikeouts over the 10 game span. Nonetheless, it's nice to see some improvement from Kieschnick, who had a disastrous season ago as he struggled through injuries and ineffectiveness. With an offense that is being carried by Charlie Culberson right now, the Flying Squirrels need Kieschnick's bat to be competitive, and right now, he's on the right track.

San Jose Giants, 34-15 heading into May 29th.

• After getting off to a hot start with the bat, Chris Dominguez has cooled off in his last 10 games. He is hitting .237 with zero home runs, two RBI and has 12 strikeouts in 38 at-bats. He does have six walks in this time span, but considering he hit nine home runs in his first 38 games, the power dip is a bit concerning. It could be just a bad stretch, and considering the environment of the California League, it could be just a matter of time before Dominguez starts showcasing his home run stroke again in San Jose. That being said, at 24 years old, Dominguez isn't exactly young for the Cal League, and thus, if he wants to keep his high status as a prospect, he needs to continue to display his power tools.
• Another guy that has cooled off dramatically is Wendell Fairley, as he is posting a .557 OPS in his last ten games. Fairley has always been good in terms of his strike zone recognition, as he is posting an OBP of .358 and a BB/K ratio of 0.61. However, he has never displayed much power in the minors, as his slugging percentage this year (.350) would be a career high. Since this is Fairley's second go-around in the Cal League, a lot of progress was expected for the first round draft pick in 2011. And, even though he is performing better at the plate than a year ago, there hasn't been enough significant progress this year to show that Fairley is a serious prospect in the Giants system.
• While Fairley has floundered, one outfielder that has come on strong is first-year player Jarrett Parker. He is posting a .792 OPS in his last ten games, and has seven RBI, seven walks and three stolen bases to boot. Parker sports an .808 OPS total for the year, and is hitting .264 in 193 plate appearances with four home runs and 24 RBI. Parker could be better in terms of cutting down his strikeouts (he has a strikeout percentage of 28 percent), but considering this is his first year of professional ball and he is only 22 years old, the progress he has shown is comforting. Of course, we have seen first year players do well in High-A, only to fall back to earth in the transition to Double-A (case in point: Kieschnick), but at the same time, Parker is an interesting prospect with some interesting tools who could do well with more at-bats as a professional.

Augusta Green Jackets,  20-29 heading into May 29th.

• It was expected that Ehire Adrianza would start out the year in Richmond until an injury forced him on the Disabled List to begin the year. In Augusta though, Adrianza has struggled once again at the plate, as he is hitting .176 with a .586 OPS in 62 plate appearances. Adrianza has still showed good plate discipline (0.67 BB/K ratio), but as noted before, he has struggled to hit for much power or average in his minor league career. Defensively, nobody can doubt that Adrianza is the best fielding infielder in the Giants system. However, with Brandon Crawford making his debut with the Giants this weekend, there is a little bit of pressure on Adrianza to perform. He needs to show what he can do at a higher level so the Giants brass can figure out what to do with him and how much value he has as a prospect. With the slow start in the Sally, Adrianza certainly isn't making things easy for Giants management.
• In his first full year in the minors, Mike Kickham is off to a good start. He is posting a 1.80 ERA and has 18 strikeouts and only three walks in three starts and 15 innings pitched. A sixth-round pick out of Missouri State a year ago, Kickham was rated the 16th best prospect in the Giants system by Baseball America in their 2011 Prospect Handbook. Kickham, according to Baseball America, has a good fastball that touches 94 MPH, and has a plus slider and a hard breaking ball. There definitely is some promise with Kickham, as he seems to be a polished college arm that could move up quickly if he continues to display the solid stuff and command that he showed in his first three starts with the Green Jackets.
• Another interesting arm in the Green Jackets' pitching staff is Stephen Harrold, who has been stellar out of the Augusta pen. He is posting an ERA of 1.48 in 24.1 IP and he has 22 strikeouts and a K/BB ratio of 2.75. A 12th round pick out of UNC-Wilmington, Harrold isn't exactly a heralded arm (he wasn't on the radar of any prospect analysts' Giants list), but he has shown good command, and control in the Sally this year. He also did have a solid year in Salem-Keizer a year ago where he struck out 28 batters in 22.2 IP. For a team that doesn't hit well (the Green Jackets' .236 batting average is last in the league, and their 4.45 R/G is second-to-last), Harrold is a valuable asset to this Green Jackets team. As a prospect though, we'll have to just wait and see how he'll progress over the year, but I like what he has displayed with his command and control in his first two years in the minors.

Farm Watch: Grizzlies Swoon, Dynamic Duo Up the Middle, SJ Catcher Competition, and Augusta Roster Shakeup

It's mid-May, and it's getting close to the point where will be seeing other lower level affiliates (Salem-Kezier, AZL and DSL) starting hitting the field soon. In the meantime, let's take a review of how things have been going in the current Giants system since our last update.


Fresno Grizzlies, 19-21 going into May 18th.

• The Grizzlies have hit a bit of a snag as they have lost six of their past seven games on the road. The biggest problem during this road trip has been the bullpen. Steve Edlefsen has allowed seven hits and seven runs in his past three appearances (2.1) IP, and Marc Kroon is coming off a subpar performance against Nashville on May 13th where he allowed two hits and a run while not recording a single out. If the Grizzlies want to have any shot at making a run for the Pacific Coast League division title, they are going to need to get some improved contribution out of their bullpen.
• There has been a lot of roster turnover lately in Triple-A. Not only did Emmanuel Burriss and Ryan Rohlinger get "optioned to Fresno" (sorry, it is the name of the blog) last week, but the Grizzlies also welcomed former Giants cast-off relievers Waldis Joaquin and Geno Espineli in the past couple of weeks. Joaquin is an interesting arm, mainly because he was deemed a top prospect in the Giants system a couple of years ago. In an uninspired stint last year in San Francisco though, he struggled to strike batters out and eventually got designated for assignment to clear him off the 40-man roster. After not accepting a claim with the Chicago White Sox last year, he is back in Fresno and has pitched decently. In 10.1 IP, he has a 1.74 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a 1.78 GB rate. Unfortunately, much like last year, the strikeouts are down (only three strikeouts this year), so any shot of him returning to the majors at this point seems to be a stretch. As for Espineli, he had a rocky Grizzlies 2011 debut (0.2 IP, 1 R, 3 BB, 2 SO), but he bounced back to have a clean inning of work against Memphis two days ago (he retired the side in order). Giants fans should probably expect him to spend the majority of the year in Triple-A though.
• Brandon Belt continues to rake (as evidenced by his grand slam home run yesterday) and draw walks at an impressive rate (he has drawn 26 free passes in 104 plate appearances). That being said, his strikeouts are a bit of a concern, as he has whiffed out 21 times (a 28 percent rate). Having just subscribed to MiLB.tv for 30 bucks for the year, I have gotten the chance to see a lot of Belt's at-bats on tape. He definitely is patient at the plate, but he has swung and missed a lot, a bit concerning because he isn't exactly facing the best pitching in the PCL. His walks do make up for his high number of strikeouts (as evidenced by his 1.14 BB/K ratio), but not even John Bowker had a strikeout rate this high. With a callup looming for Belt soon (or at least we hope so), one has to wonder if the low contact rate (72 percent in Fresno this year, five points lower than his stint with the Giants) is a sign of things to come. That being said,  I'm still optimistic and high on Belt and what he can do at the Major League level, and this may just be a case of me being nitpicky.

 Richmond Flying Squirrels, 17-20 going into May 18th.

• There was a lot of question marks about Charlie Culberson and Nick Noonan going into 2011. Culberson had to prove in Richmond that he wasn't just a Cal League wonder (he had two sub-par years in Augusta prior to 2010), and Noonan had to not only bounce back from a mediocre 2010 campaign in the Eastern League, but injury as well. However, both have gotten off to solid starts offensively, and seem to be quite the duo up the middle for the Flying Squirrels (Noonan, traditionally a second baseman, is playing shortstop). Culberson is hitting a team high .299 and has a home run and 14 RBI to go along with four stolen bases and a .727 OPS in 167 plate appearances. Noonan leads the team in OPS at .741, and he has two home runs, 11 RBI, and seven doubles in 115 plate appearances this year. Culberson still is a bit of a free swinger at the plate (34 strikeouts, 0.21 BB/K ratio), but he is only 22 years old and in his first year in the Eastern League. As for Noonan, his biggest improvement has not only been the increase in pop from a year ago (he had a .304 slugging last year; this seasons it's .396), but his more patient approach at the dish. Already, in almost 300 less plate appearances, he has half as many walks (11) as last year (22), and his BB/K ratio (0.46)  is a vast improvement from a season ago (0.30).
• One of the more interesting stories in Richmond right now has to be Juan Perez. Rated as the 24th best prospect in the Giants system according to Baseball America, Perez is around league average age-wise, but has had a very rocky path to professional ball. Originally from the Dominican Republic, Perez moved to the United States in 2001, but wasn't drafted out of high school. Instead of going to college, he ended up doing an apprenticeship for his father's plumbing company while playing in Adult Baseball night leagues. The impressive showings in the rec-league contests got him some attention from junior colleges, and he committed to Western Oklahoma JC, where he set the DII National JuCo record for home runs (37) and RBI (102) in 2008. Impressed by his gaudy JuCO numbers, the Giants selected Perez in the 13th round. Now, Perez isn't tearing up the Eastern League by any means (he is batting .264 with a .673 OPS, but he does have eight stolen bases on nine attempts). Still, he does have an interesting toolset (Baseball America said that his defense in center field was so good last year in San Jose, that it bumped Francisco Peguero to right field) and his "Sugar"-esque tale would be a great success story for the Giants organization.
• One of the more impressive bullpen arms in Richmond has been left-hander David Quinowski. A bit older for the Eastern League (he's 25), Quinowski has put together a solid campaign this year for the Flying Squirrels out of the pen. He has a 1.61 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 22.1 innings of work, and limited his walks (only 3 non-intentional walks allowed) while displaying excellent command (5.00 K/BB ratio). A 46th round pick in the 2005 draft out of high school, Quinowski's MLB upside may be simply as a LOOGY (left-handers only guy). That being said, with Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez going to be free agents next year, Quinowski could be a dark-horse to break into the Giants bullpen as early as next year if he maintains this good display in Richmond.

San Jose Giants,  25-14 going into May 18th.

• Gary Brown is due for a callup. He's absolutely annihilating Cal League pitching, and it's looking like he doesn't have much to prove in San Jose. He is hitting .374 with a .968 OPS and has three home runs, two triples, 11 doubles and 23 stolen bases in 38 games and 190 plate appearances. The only question now is when (not if) the Giants are going to promote him to Richmond. I think the Giants would probably wait until June to pull the trigger on such a move, just not to rush him. Nonetheless, Brown is head and shoulders above the competition in the California League in 2011 and is suddenly one of the hottest prospects out there right now.
• The catcher's competition between Hector Sanchez and Tommy Joseph has been an interesting subplot this year in San Jose. Joseph, a second round pick a year ago, was known for his tremendous power (16 home runs, 68 RBI in 2010 in Augusta), but lack of plate discipline (116 strikeouts in 436 AB). The same has proved to be true this year, as Joseph has four home runs and 20 RBI, but is hitting for a low average (.223), not walking (only seven walks in 162 plate appearances) and striking out a lot (30 strikeouts; though his 20.2 percent rate is lower than the 26.6 percent rate a year ago). As for Sanchez, he has proved to be better defensively (his success rate in throwing guys out is 48 percent, while Joseph's is 34 percent) and he is hitting better for average than Joseph as well (Sanchez's batting average is .282). To make matters worse for Joseph, Sanchez has actually been showing just as much power, if not more, as Sanchez has four home runs, 26 RBI, a slugging of .470 and an OPS of .771. Joseph is still young of course (he's only 19 years old) and I think the Giants have a lot more invested in the slugger from Arizona than the catcher from Venezuela. That being said, if Joseph doesn't show progress soon, he may be in jeopardy of losing playing time or getting a demotion to the Sally to figure things out and get his confidence up.
• Bay Area kid and former Cleveland Indians prospect Chuck Lofgren made his Giants organizational debut against Lancaster, as he went two innings and struck out two while earning the save in the Giants' 5-2 win on May 11th. Lofgren was a top prospect with the Indians, as he was ranked No. 54 in Baseball America's Top-100 rankings going into 2007 and No. 71 going into 2008. However, his last two campaigns in Triple-A have been far from stellar, as he posted an ERA of 5.31 with Columbus and 5.19 with Nashville (Milwaukee). He signed with the Giants as a free agent after being non-tendered by the Brewers this off-season. It is expected that his stint will be short in San Jose, and he'll probably find a spot in the Grizzlies' bullpen soon.

 Augusta Green Jackets, 16-23 going into May 18th.

• The No. 28 prospects in the "OTF Most Interesting 32 Prospects" list have gotten off to good starts so far in the Sally. Carlos Willoughby has been a stout option at leadoff, as he is hitting .295 with a .752 OPS and has 14 stolen bases on 17 attempts. Willoughby hasn't shed his "slap-hitter" label (his slugging is only .362), but he has been the Green Jackets' best hitter during this first couple months of play. As for Rafael Rodriguez, while he is young for the league, he has been holding his own, a nice sign after a disappointing campaign in the Northwest League last year. He is hitting .281 with a homer and 12 RBI. His OPS isn't great (.681) and he could still draw more walks (only six in a 129 plate appearances). That being said, he isn't striking out either (only 17 strikeouts) and he is showing more power as of late (he hit his first home run a couple of days ago). At 18 years old, it seems like Rodriguez's career is back on track after that down year in Salem-Keizer in 2010.
• Augusta made some wholesale changes as they sent a few players to extended Spring Training, most notably shortstop Ydwin Villegas and catcher Dan Burkhart. While touted pitching prospect Mike Kickham made his 2011 debut, the biggest additions to the Green Jackets were Brett Bochy and Ehire Adrianza. Bochy is the son of Giants Manager Bruce Bochy and pitched well in his first appearance of the year on May 15th. He threw two innings and struck out one and allowed only one hit. As for Adrianza, he has flashed some power after coming off the disabled list to start off the season. He has four hits, including a double and a home run, as well as five walks in 20 plate appearances this year. Adrianza most likely will make the jump up to San Jose or Richmond soon considering he played all last season in the California League.
• Though Shawn Sanford's numbers aren't terrible by any stretch of the imagination, his declining strikeout rate the past three seasons has been somewhat alarming. After being drafted in the 13th round by the Giants in the 2008 draft out of South Florida, Sanford was hittable in 20.1 innings of work in the Arizona Rookie League (he allowed 26 hits). However, he struck guys out (31 strikeouts) and displayed good command (3.88 K/BB ratio) in his first professional season, which gave hope that he could be somewhat of a sleeper. Last year, in Salem Keizer, Sanford's ERA went down (from 5.31 to 2.14), but so did his K/BB ratio (2.86) and strikeout rate (8.6) over double the workload of a year ago (40.2 IP). So far this season, he's almost pitched as many innings in the first two months (40 IP) as he did all of last year, and yet his strikeout rate is less than half (3.8) of what it was in the Northwest League. Sanford presents a nice ERA (2.92), but he has a mediocre K/BB ratio (1.89) and is benefiting from a slightly below average BABIP (.294). His ability to induce groundballs at a decent rate may help him maintain his current start (his GB rate is 1.53), but chances are he is probably due for a reality check soon, even if the Sally is a pitcher's league.
  

OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 18, Clayton Tanner, LHP

The Giants added left-handed pitcher Clayton Tanner to the 40-man roster this November, and he brings some interesting things to the table. In my opinion, he offers a bit more upside in comparison to other starting pitchers on the 40-man roster in the past (such as Kevin Pucetas, Ryan Sadowski and Joe Martinez). As a prospect though, his ceiling is a bit questionable, as his potential has leveled out a bit since making the transition to Richmond last season.

Originally out of Australia, Tanner played high school ball at De La Salle HS in Concord, Calif. A local Bay Area kid, the Giants took Tanner in the third round of the 2006 draft, hoping the six-foot, one-inch lefty would develop over time in the minors. In his first season of professional ball, Tanner was assigned to Short-Season ball, and performed admirably in 13 appearances in relief with Salem-Keizer. He pitched 26 innings and allowed 17 and 10 runs, with 25 strikeouts and only eight walks. His 3.13 K/BB ratio, 3.46 ERA and 0.96 WHIP were all impressive numbers for the 18-year-old in the Northwest League, and his FIP (2.82) and his xERA (1.96) outperformed his ERA, which were good signs in his debut stint.

In his first professional season, he earned a promotion to the Sally, this time as a starting pitcher (as many envisioned he would be when he was drafted). While the strikeouts went down a bit (his K/9 fell to 6.9), he still displayed good control (2.9 BB/9) and command (2.40) over the increased workload (he pitched 135 innings for the Green Jackets). He did prove to be more hittable in the Sally as his H/9 increased to 9.8 and his WHIP jumped to 1.41. However, he did suffer from a bout of bad luck (his BABIP jumped to .335), which explains his 3.19 FIP (though his xERA was 3.93, 33 points higher than his ERA). Nonetheless, at 19 years old and just a year removed from high school, Tanner was a starting pitcher with some upside whom the Giants expected to get better the more he got exposed to professional hitting and developed his secondary pitches.

Going into 2008, there was plenty of attention on Tanner from other baseball analysts. John Sickels ranked him as the 7th best prospect in the Giants system heading into his second full season, grading him as a B- prospect. He didn't disappoint in his promotion in San Jose, as he finished the season with a 10-8 record, a 3.69 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 117 innings pitched. The strikeouts went down again (his K/9 fell to 6.5), but he allowed less hits in 2008 (his H/9 fell to 9.5), a promising sign considering the Cal League tends to be a hitter's paradise. His FIP in 2008 also improved to 3.08, as did his xERA, which finished at 3.56.

Though he started the year in San Jose again in 2009, the hype was still there for Tanner. Marc Hulet of Fangraphs ranked him as a potential sleeper going into the 2009 season, citing his excellent control and good pitch repertoire which consisted of a high 80's fastball that touched the low 90's, and a slider and curve. Sickels dropped him to No. 12 in his Giants Top-20 list, but he still liked him as a sleeper in 2009, much like Hulet.

Tanner pitched much better in San Jose in 2009, as he benefited from a much more generous BABIP (.289) as well as a better strikeout rate (7.8 K/9) and improved command (2.9 K/BB ratio). He finished his second season in the Cal League with a 12-6 record, 3.17 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 139 innings of work, a career high at the time. Hulet commended him in his review of the Giants system in 2009 saying this about the lefty:

"Tanner received some consideration for 'The Riser' category before I realized he was listed as the sleeper prospect in the 2008 minor review. The southpaw can be labeled as a soft-tosser, which limits his ceiling to a degree, but the Australian continues to make improvements and have success. Tanner posted a walk rate of just 2.71 BB/9 while repeating high-A ball for the second year."

After a solid campaign in San Jose in 2009, Tanner was ranked as the Giants' 23rd best prospect in Baseball America's Prospect Handbook for 2010. Sickels also ranked him at 16, grading him as a C+ prospect, though noting that  he was a borderline C prospect and "that he needed to see if game will work against better hitters" (Sickels noted that he was a bit of a soft tosser that didn't have intimidating stuff).

His first season in the Eastern League though proved to be a reality check for Tanner of sorts. At 23 years old, he didn't blow away guys as easily as he did in the Sally and Cal League. His K/9 fell to a career low 4.8, and he struggled with his command as he sported a K/BB ratio of 1.23. The hit rate also jumped to 9.1, as he allowed 150 hits in 149 IP. While his ERA wasn't bad at 3.68, his WHIP (1.44), FIP (4.44) and xERA (4.04) were a bit disappointing, especially considering his solid 2009 showing in San Jose, and the fact that the Eastern League tends to favor pitchers.

Tanner's stock took a bit of a tumble, as he tumbled to No. 30 in Baseball America's Giants prospect rankings this year, and fell out of John Sickels Top-20 list for 2011. Still despite the regression in Richmond, the Giants still thought somewhat highly of Tanner, as evidenced by naming him to the 40-man roster (though it might have simply been a formality, as he is 24 years old and going into his sixth year of professional ball).

This year, much like his 2009 in San Jose, Tanner has improved in his second go-around in the Eastern League. In six starts and 32 innings pitched, he still proves to be quite hittable (34 hits allowed; 1.44 WHIP), but he has increased his strikeouts (7.1 K/9) and showed better command (2.17). He is not dominating by any stretch of the imagination. That being said, the Giants brass and fans expected some kind of improvement in 2011, and while his ERA (3.94) doesn't suggest it, his FIP (4.20) illustrates that Tanner is figuring it out a little bit better this second time-around in Richmond (his FIP was 4.44 last year).

With a pitching staff loaded with good, young starters at the Major League level, and some promising arms lingering in the minors (Eric Surkamp especially), Tanner doesn't present the promise and upside he once did back in 2008, when he was a sleeper prospect who could be in the Noah Lowry mold. Rob Gordon in his Minor League Baseball Analyst annual for 2011 rated him as a 7C prospect, not exactly disheartening, but evidence that Tanner may not be a slam dunk at the big league level (Gordon rates his potential as a No. 4 starter). Here is what Gordon said in his writeup about Tanner:

"Athletic pitcher with plus slider and fastball location, which compensates for average velocity. Continues to pitch effectively despite a below average FB. Isn't overpowering, but knows how to locate and keep batters off balance. Not a lot of upside, but could see a few seasons as a backend starter."

Considering he's on the 40-man, you would hope as a Giants fan you'd see that potential being realized sooner rather than later. However, with Ryan Vogelsong performing admirably in the absence of Barry Zito, and Zito due to come off the disabled list soon (and you know the Giants are going to pitch him considering how much the Giants are paying him), Tanner seems to be on the outside looking in at this point in terms of breaking into the Majors. The best case scenario for Tanner at this point seems to be a callup to Fresno, and even then, I'm not even sure if the Giants feel Tanner is ready enough to make the jump up to Triple-A.

I still like Tanner for a variety of reasons. I think he has displayed good control over his professional career (he has a career walk rate of 3.1) and good control and command can never be underestimated. That being said, without powering stuff and his tendency to get knocked around by batters, it is safe to say that Tanner's outlook as a prospect is a bit cloudy. It's his sixth season of professional ball, and while has been good at various levels, he has never displayed any real dominance in the minors, and one has to wonder if how that will bode in the Majors (His Minor League Equivalents produced a 4.83 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 1.00 K/BB ratio based on last year's numbers).

Still, I ranked him at 18 because he is showing some signs of bounce back this year and I think his outlook is still sunny considering his potential. Is he going to be a future front-end starter that's going to pitch 200-plus innings a year? Obviously not. But a back-end starter who could produced decent numbers over 120-150 IP a season in the bigs? I think that's more attainable for Tanner, and not a bad weapon for the Giants to have.

OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 20, Jason Stoffel, RHP

Jason Stoffel isn't exactly a pitcher with a high ceiling, but a good fastball (which was clocked as high as 96 MPH) and high strikeout rates early in the minors make Stoffel an interesting arm in the Giants minor league system.

Stoffel played college baseball at the University of Arizona (a very good baseball program) where he put together a solid career as a reliever, finishing as the Wildcats' all-time saves leader (He earned 29 saves in three seasons). While his 2008 campaign with the Wildcats (1.71 xERA, 14.8 K/9, 5.3 K/BB ratio) was much better than his 2009 one (2.68 xERA, 9.2 K/9, 2.2 K/BB ratio), Stoffel came into the 2009 MLB Draft as a polished power pitcher who had a closer's mentality and a fast track ticket to the Big Leagues, according to John Klima of Baseball Beginnings.

After being drafted in the fourth round, the Giants assigned him to Rookie League right off the bat. In 9.2 IP, he allowed eight hits and only struck out six batters, but he showed very good control. He faced 38 batters in Arizona and didn't allow a single walk. The good control carried in a promotion to the Northwest League, as he faced 39 batters and pitched 10.1 innings, but only allowed one free pass. Furthermore, Stoffel displayed better command and dominance with the Volcanoes as he struck out 13 hitters and finished with a WHIP of 0.68.

The good campaign in Salem-Keizer earned Stoffel some attention from baseball writers and analysts going into the 2010 season. Baseball America ranked him as the 15th best prospect, and John Sickels had him as the ninth best in the Giants system going into 2010. Stoffel spent his 2010 in San Jose, mostly as the team's primary closer. He didn't disappoint in the role, as he earned 25 saves and helped the Giants win a second-straight California League title.

However, most of his numbers suffered from a bit of an inflation from the previous season (which is probably to be expected since he only pitched 20 innings in 2009). In 50.2 IP, Stoffel had a WHIP of 1.56 and a xERA of 4.66 (which is 18 points better than his 4.84 ERA). He still showcased the power fastball and electric stuff (11.7 K/9), but the pinpoint control he displayed in 2009 faded. He had a BB/9 of 4.3 and a K/BB ratio of 2.75. Also concerning was the fact that he was more hittable in San Jose than in Arizona or Salem-Keizer, as had a 9.8 H/9 in 2010 (almost a three point jump from the previous year). Of course, you could probably point to the high BABIP (.383) and the fact that the California League favors hitters as a reason for the inflation in hits allowed. Thus, while the high rate of base hits was an issue, it didn't alarm too many people.

This year, Stoffel's stock fell a little bit in the eyes of minor league analysts and scouts. Baseball America dropped him to No. 22 in their Giants prospects rankings, and John Sickels dropped him out of the Top 20 all together (though he did list him as a honorable mention). Nonetheless, there was still hope for him, as Rob Gordon in the Minor League Baseball Analyst 2011 annual rated Stoffel as an 8D prospect (the number representing upside and the letter representing possibility of reaching that upside; the higher the number (9 being the best) and letter (A being he's a lock to reach his upside), the better).

This year, there have been a fair share of issues for Stoffel in Richmond. He has pitched 13 innings in the Eastern League so far and has allowed 16 hits and 6 walks, and his ERA is currently 4.85 and his WHIP is 1.69. The biggest concern for Stoffel has been the loss of his dominance and command in comparison to last year, as his K/9 rate is down to 7.6 and his K/BB ratio is 1.83. Considering his MO is as a power reliever who can dominate in the ninth, Stoffel hasn't exactly showed signs of improvement since last year, which doesn't bode well for his Major League hopes. (It's especially concerning since the Eastern League tends to favor pitchers; the positive spin on it though is the fact that he is two years younger than the average EL pitcher, so he has that going for him.)

In reality, there wasn't a huge amount of upside to Stoffel to being with, and he probably is going to always be what he is: a power-armed, one-to-two inning reliever. He is a big guy (six-foot, two-inches, 225 pounds), but he isn't very athletic, and he was pretty much described as a one-pitch pitcher who was destined to the bullpen the second he was drafted. He has been working on his secondary pitches to change that reputation, but it is coming slower than the Giants organization expected/wanted. Here is what Baseball America said about his pitches:

"Stoffel throws his fastball at 88-93 MPH, at times reaching the mid-90's, and has a power slider that sits in the upper 70s and touches 80 MPH. He can turn it into a hard slurve at times. He worked on a changeup on the side, but didn't have the confidence to use it in games. His future depends on his ability to locate his fastball down and to both sides of the plates, something he he's shown the ability to do when he's composed on the mound."

If Stoffel can get his walk and command issues from last year and the beginning of this year under control, and display that K/9 that made him so enticing in San Jose, then he certainly could be contributing to the Giants bullpen in a year or two. As Baseball America implies, the stuff is there and Major-League ready. He just needs to polish up his command, especially as he continues to progress and develop in the Giants system.

OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 21, Roger Kieschnick, OF

Roger Kieschnick is an outfield prospect who broke onto the scene fast in 2009, but took a big step back in 2010. After producing big numbers in three years at Texas Tech (he hit 39 homers and posted ISO numbers of .319 and .327 his last two years with the Red Raiders), he was drafted by the Giants in the third round of the 2008 MLB Draft. Considering his college pedigree and five-tool potential, many experts felt that the Giants got a steal in the third round with Kieschnick (Baseball America rated him at the time as one of the system’s best prospects).

In 2009, he earned a promotion to San Jose right off the bat, and he was perhaps the Giants’ most dynamic hitter in the system in his first professional year. In 517 plate appearances, Kieschnick hit 23 home runs, drove in 110 RBI, and posted an ISO of .236 and an OPS of .874. He also displayed some good speed and athleticism, as his defense earned good reports, and he stole nine bases on ten attempts in 2009.

Kieschnick’s campaign in the California League was far from perfect, however. While his power numbers were nice, there were major concerns about his swing (scouts noticed that he had a lengthy swing and didn’t always stay back on pitches) as well as his plate approach. He didn’t walk very much (6.4 percent walk rate) and he whiffed at a very high rate (25.1 percent), which produced very alarming BB/K ratios (0.28). Also, Kieschnick showed slightly below contact ability (75 percent contact rate) in a league that favored hitters. That being said, a lot of people cut him some slack, mainly because it was his first year in professional ball and his plate approach would improve as he got more at-bats under his belt in the minors.

The breakout season earned him some nice attention from a lot of publications and scouts. Baseball America in 2010 named him in the seventh best prospect in the Giants system, and Fangraphs writer Marc Hulet had him pegged as the fifth-best prospect in the Giants system, behind only Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Thomas Neal, and Dan Runzler.

Unfortunately, Kieschnick struggled to build upon his solid California League campaign in 2009, as he regressed statistically in Richmond. Back spasms and issues limited Kieschnick to only 60 games and 246 plate appearances, but even in the limited action, he didn’t impress. He only hit .251, with a .117 ISO and .673 OPS, all dramatic drop offs from the previous season. His eye at the plate improved a little bit (his BB/K ratio rose to 0.33), but it still was far from impressive and didn’t make up for the lack of power and overall regression he suffered in the Eastern League.

Of course, there were a couple of things that lessened the blow of Kieschnick’s down year. First off, he was injured, and it was an injury that obviously affected his production mightily (it took an 0-for-34 slide before Kieschnick finally admitted that something needed to be done). Also, the Eastern League tends to favor pitchers greatly, so while the massive offensive drop off was surprising, some kind of regression was to be expected, especially considering he was in his second season of professional ball and he was a year younger than the average EL player.

The Giants assigned Kieschnick for a second year in Richmond this season, hoping that he’d fare better against Eastern League pitching now that he is healthy and with a year of Double-A under his belt. Unfortunately, Kieschnick hasn’t shown much sign of improvement during this first month of play, as he is hitting .200 with a .529 OPS and only nine extra base hits. Striking out continues to be an issue as he has punched out 24 times in 120 at-bats, and sports a BB/K ratio of 0.38. His approach and eye at the plate is probably going to be a continuing issue for Kieschnick as evidenced by the past couple of years in Double-A. That being said, without the power to make up for the lackluster plate approach, Kieschnick doesn’t offer much as a prospect, and that makes his future with the Giants organization a little bleak (especially considering the talent in the Giants system in the outfield).

There are some things to like about Kieschnick. He’s a good defender (the Minor League Baseball Analyst has him as four-plus rated defender), and he showed in college and in the California League that when he gets behind the ball, he can drive in runs and extra base hits. The only problem is that he’s struggled to make consistent contact and his plate discipline needs to improve, especially when it comes to swinging at pitches he can drive. It is still early in the year of course, and there are some signs that Kieschnick can turn things around in the Eastern League at the plate (he doubled twice in a game against the Bowie Bay Sox on May 11th).

That being said, his status is a little bit questionable as a prospect, and one has to wonder if he was just a beneficiary of the California League’s hitter friendly environments. He looks to have some Nate Schierholtz potential, especially with his solid defensive skills and Team USA baseball pedigree. However, Kieschnick this year needs to start showing at least a semblance of the power he displayed in San Jose if he wants to be considered a serious prospect again like he was prior to the 2010 season.

Farm Watch: Brown Owning California League, Richmond's Offensive Ineptness, Concepcion's Walk Issues, and Other Notes

The teams in the Giants system are continuing to get in the swing of things, and with some players off to good starts in April and May, it'll be interesting to see which players will be up for promotion come June. Not a lot of differences from the last "Farm Watch" update, but it's always good to do a rundown in terms of who is doing well and who isn't.


Fresno Grizzlies, 18-15 going into May 11th.

• The Grizzlies have picked it up a little, as they sit a few games over .500 and in third place in the Pacific Coast League, three games behind Reno and Sacramento. That mainly can be contributed to Brandon Belt's stellar performance. He is hitting .389 with a 1.106 OPS and has two home runs and 13 RBI to go along with 16 walks and only 18 strikeouts. It's obvious he is just toying with PCL pitching and he is due for a callup soon. However, with Cody Ross' recent surge and Andres Torres and Mark Derosa back off the DL, it'll be difficult to plug him into first base or the outfield, for both positions are very crowded. That being said, Belt is ready for a promotion, and I think with this recent stint under his belt (Ha! Pun!), Giants fans can expect a much better performance from him this second-time around.
• Shane Loux is an older journeyman pitcher in the Giants system (he is 31 years old and he has pitched in the Tigers, Royals, Angels and Astros farm systems), but he is coming off a good string of starts. On May 2nd, he pitched 6 innings and allowed five hits and zero runs in a win over Colorado Springs. His latest start though was probably his best of the year. On May 9th, he went eight innings, struck out eight and only allowed one hit (albeit a two run homer that prevented him from getting the decision). Loux has shown good control this year in the PCL (only six walks in 45 innings piched) and though he doesn't strike a lot of guys  out (4.8 K/9), he still has managed to give the Grizzlies good, quality starts. While I think it's a stretch that he'll have any impact on the Giants rotation, he certainly is capable of having the kind of impact on the Grizzlies that Eric Hacker had last season.
• Tyler Graham has rebounded offensively after a slow start to this year, as he is now hitting .276 and has scored 18 runs for the Grizzlies. He isn't really drawing walks (five in 84 plate appearances) and his numbers other than his batting average are pretty mediocre (.317 OBP, .659 OPS). However, Graham's plus skill (base stealing ability) has been on full display this year, despite his inconsistency with the bat. He is currently 14-for-14 on stolen base attempts this year. He is a little old to be considered a serious prospect (27 years old) and he plays at a crowded position in the Giants system (outfield), but the Grizzlies have to like the speed skill set Graham brings to the table.

Richmond Flying Squirrels, 15-17 going into May 11th.

• The Squirrels have been a pretty inept team offensively this year. They are averaging 3.56 R/G this year and they have a team OPS of .596, both dead last in the Eastern League. ( To compare, the second lowest OPS is Trenton, who has a .649 OPS...just goes to show you how bad the Flying Squirrels have been offensively). What makes these offensive numbers even more disheartening is the fact that the Flying Squirrels hitters have wasted good pitching performances this season. Led by Eric Surkamp, Clayton Tanner and Ryan Verdugo in the rotation and Jason Sotffel, David Quinowski and Just Dowdy in the pen, the Flying Squirrels pitching staff has allowed only 3.53 R/G and sports a team ERA of 2.85, both league bests.
• The only real offensive hitter of note for the Flying Squirrels has been second baseman, Charlie Culberson, who tore up the California League last season (he hit 16 home runs, drove in 71 RBI, stole 25 bases and had an OPS of .797 in San Jose). He leads the team in plate appearances (143), batting average (.290) and OPS (.713). He could cut down his strikeouts (28) and draw some more walks (only six this year), but he is still young (at 22, he's two years younger than the average age of Eastern League players) and at least he hasn't fallen off a cliff like some players have in the Eastern League after transitioning from the hitter-friendly California League.
• Speaking of Tanner, his progress this year as he enters his second season with Richmond has been interesting to follow. He has improved the K/9 rate and has shown a little bit better command (2.10 K/BB ratio in comparison to the 1.23 one he sported last year) in his first six starts this season. However, he still has been quite hittable (9.6 H/9) and he has had some shaky outings which are concerns considering the Eastern League tends to favor pitchers. I'm not exactly saying things are gloomy for Tanner, but considering he earned a spot on the 40-man roster this year, you hope he can continue to develop as the season progresses.

San Jose Giants, 20-12 going into May 11th.

• San Jose always proves to be one of the better organizations in the Giants system and this year is no different. The Giants have the second best offense (6.44 R/G) and best pitching staff (3.84) when it comes to runs scored and runs allowed per game. While Stockton (the A's affiliate) is currently a game ahead of the Giants going into today, San Jose seems primed for another California League title run.
• If you want a reason for the Giants' offensive success this year, look no further than Gary Brown. He has been on an absolute tear lately, as he was recently named the California League player of the week. Also, Baseball America tabbed him as one of the hottest prospect in the minors right now, and for good reason: he is hitting .366 with a .940 OPS and he has 27 RBI and 27 runs scored in 154 plate appearances. Brown is a five-tool talent that may end up as the top prospect in the Giants system by the end of the year (assuming Belt graduates to the big leagues, which looks to be the case; I'll be surprised if he is still in Fresno by Mid-June). Of course, how Brown's numbers will transition to Richmond will be a good measuring point, so I'm not ready to get too carried away with him just yet. Even so, for California League standards, what Brown is doing is pretty remarkable (especially considering he's around the league average age-wise).
• Zack Wheeler has been the catalyst to this Giants rotation (11.3 K/9, 3.78 K/BB ratio, 1.04 WHIP) and most talked about pitcher in San Jose, but they have been getting good performances out of the bullpen from Hector Correa and Heath Hembree. Correa has pitched 24 innings and has an ERA of 2.59 and a WHIP of 0.74. While he isn't exactly a high volume strikeout guy (20 strikeouts), he has shown excellent control (only four walks). As for Hembree, he punches out guys in bunches (22 strikeouts in 12 IP), and the reports on his stuff are promising (Perfect Game USA rated him as one of the 3-4 hardest throwers in his draft class). There are some minor walk issues (he has six walks), but you got to like Hembree's combo of stuff and ability to make bitters miss.

Augusta Green Jackets, 12-20 going into May 11th

• Much like the Flying Squirrels, the Green Jackets are off to a rough start. They are the third-oldest team in the Sally, but they  have the fourth-worst offense (4.56 R/G) and second worst pitching (5.97) on a runs per game scored and allowed basis. Safe to say, while Richmond may be better than their record indicates (their pythagorean W-L is 16-16), you can't exactly make the same argument for the Green Jackets. The high R/G allowed is surprising since the Sally tends to favor pitchers (4.90 R/G league average). That being said, it might just be a product of a down year in terms of pitching talent in Augusta or just a sign of early ineffectiveness from Green Jacket pitchers. (Let's hope for the latter.)
• Rafael Rodriguez isn't showing much power in the Sally (.681 OPS; .351 slugging), but his averages are climbing (.286 batting average) and he doesn't look totally overwhelmed in Single A, which is a good sign considering he's four years younger than the average player on the Green Jackets roster, and three years younger than the average Sally player (he's 18 years old). With his tools and athleticism, Rodriguez certainly is an enticing prospect, though it'll probably take him a little longer to blossom as a player simply because he is so young and so early in his development.
• Edward Concepcion's stat line doesn't look great (4.60 ERA, 10.3 H/9, 8.6 BB/9, 2.11 WHIP), but take away a disastrous May 2nd outing against Lexington and he actually doesn't look too bad. Against the Legends, he allowed five hits, two walks and seven runs in 1.2 IP. In the last two outings against Altoona following the Lexington meltdown, he struck out three batters in two innings of work and allowed no walks and only one hit combined. Concepcion's control  continues to be an issue that is holding him back (6.5 BB/9 in 63.1 IP with the Volcanoes), but he was able to keep it under control in the Dominican Summer League (3.4 BB/9 in three seasons in the DR) and in Rookie League (4.2 BB/9 in 2009). Additionally, he seems prone to having massively bad meltdown appearances, which in turn, kill his overall numbers. If you look at his game logs this year and last year, you'll see what I mean. On a positive note though, he is known for having a plus fastball (He was hitting 97 MPH according to reports in the Arizona Rookie League), and he can miss bats (9.6 K/9 since coming stateside in 2009). It would be nice to see him bounce back in 2011 after a down year in the Northwest League in 2010. After all, he was a C+ graded prospect according to Baseball Intellect last year, and hopefully he can somewhat recapture that ranking with a good campaign in the Sally.