OTF MLB Draft Peek: Joe Ross, RHP, and Josh Osich, LHP

We're winding down toward the MLB Rule 4 Draft, and as expected, Mock Drafts continue to pop up. Let's take a look at two draft prospects who are being rumored to go to the 29th slot in the 2011 Draft.


Joe Ross, RHP, Bishop O'Dowd HS



John Sickels in his latest mock draft has Ross going to the Giants slot. Ross is the younger brother of former top A's prospect and pitcher Tyson Ross, and much like his older brother, the younger Ross has an enticing arm and physical build for a pitcher.

At six-foot, two-inches and 190 pounds, Ross isn't as big as his older brother (who's six-foot, five-inches and 215 pounds), but he has a lot more room for growth and is a lot earlier in his development. Tyson didn't get drafted until after his collegiate tenure at Cal-Berkley. As for Joe, he is expected to go anywhere from the late first to supplemental round as a graduating high school senior. So, while Tyson was a little bit more developed as a pitcher when he was drafted in 2008, Joe may have more upside and ceiling than his older brother.

The one thing they do share in common is that they both have live arms and good stuff. Joe, according to MLB Draft Guide, throws his fastball in the 91-94 MPH range, and he has a "slider with plus potential." Ross does have a changeup, but according to reports, it is still a work in progress.

Mechanically, Ross throws from a three-quarter arm slot and his long limbs and athletic build adds to the deception of his delivery. Furthermore, according to MLB Draft Guide, he has showed good control in high school and is consistent with his delivery, a nice sign that he may be able to make the transition to professional quickly if he signs out of high school.

Currently, Ross is committed to go to UCLA, and head coach John Savage raves about Ross' potential. Savage said this about the Bay-Area pitcher:

”Joe is the best right-handed pitching prospect in California. He has a very athletic delivery and a fastball that explodes at the plate. We look forward to watching Joe compete for a weekend job right away at UCLA. His potential as a pitcher is unlimited.”

Of course, you never know about a coach's praise. He is a recruit of Savage, and I'm sure he wants him to sign, so the praise is probably to be expected. Nonetheless, Ross has all the tools to be a good Major League pitcher, and it's obvious that barring injury, he can develop when he breaks into the minor leagues. Of course, considering his age and where he is at in his development, Ross is going to need some time to develop, as is usually the case with pitchers drafted out of high school.

In terms of where he is now, Ross isn't exactly impressive in comparison to other pitching prospects out of high school currently eligible for this year's draft. MLB Draft Insider graded his fastball a 45, his breaking stuff and changeup a 40, and his control and command a 40. However, while it currently isn't impressive, they are positive that he can grow and develop, as his fastball potential is a 55, his breaking stuff a 50 and his control/command a 55. MLB Draft Insider was especially optimistic about his mechanics, as that seems to be the strongest part of his game, as they rated his mechanics currently a 50 with 60 potential.

Ross is a good story because he's a Bay Area kid and a familiar name amongst Bay Area baseball circles. Furthermore, if the Giants draft him, they must really like him, because they don't have to go far to scout him (Bishop O'Dowd is in located in Oakland). With a baseball family pedigree, a live arm, and a need to upgrade the pitching depth in the minors, the Giants would seem to be a prime fit for Ross.


Josh Osich, LHP, Oregon State



Baseball America has Osich going to the Giants in their latest mock draft, and he is a live-armed lefty out of Oregon State who comes with some red flags. Last year, he was shut down for the year in 2010 due to Tommy John surgery. However, Osich this year has come back with a fury, with his most notable performance being a no-hitter against UCLA on May 1st.

The big story of his no-hitter was that it came in a duel against UCLA ace Trevor Bauer. For those who don't know, Bauer is one of the top pitchers in the country, and is projected to go in the Top-15 of this year's draft.

Despite the injury concerns, Osich has the size and stuff to become a legitimate Major League pitcher. At six-foot, three-inches and 225 pounds, Osich is a hoss with an intimidating presence on the mound. According to MLB Draft Guide, he throws a mid-90's fastball with an above average changeup. He is also starting to throw his breaking ball again, which he waned off of to protect himself after Tommy John surgery.

John Klima of Baseball Beginnings was very positive about him in his scouting report, and felt that despite his injuries, he was still a player that would fly off the boards, especially after all the buzz generated from his no-hitter against the Bruins, a pretty quality baseball program. Here is what Klima said in his scouting report:

"I first saw him in Palm Springs in 2009 he threw 97. In this look he sat 92-93 with a bump to 94. The velocity isn’t what it used to be, but it will be enough. He’s throwing from a mid 3/4 slot and sometimes drags his arm, which isn’t my favorite for any pitcher, but teams will look past that to get the left-handed power while they can get it. He’s still downhill enough to make it work, especially in this look, where his fastball was getting late cut into right-handed hitters. His second weapon for right-handers is a 80-82 change, both straight and with occasional sink, and he had good feel on this. There’s not a lot left to dream on here with this boy. He’s close to physical maturity and he won’t throw any harder, so you can expect him to be fast tracked."

In comparison to Ross and other high school pitchers in this draft, Osich doesn't have that much of a ceiling. That is clear in his scouting reports according to MLB Draft Insider, as he only has a 50 potential in terms of his changeup and control/command, and a 55 potential in terms of mechanics and delivery and breaking stuff. The highest rated aspect of his game may be his fastball though, as MLB Draft Insider rated his fastball a 65. This is entirely possible, as he is coming off Tommy John, and before, reports had him clocked in the 97 MPH range.

Osich looks to be a polished left-hander with back of the rotation potential, but perhaps could find some solidity in the bullpen down the road. If the Giants want a guy that can advance through the system quickly, Osich may be their guy, as he has a lot less room to develop in comparison to Ross. I'm not thrilled about the injury history or his mechanics, but history has showed that pitchers have rebounded nicely after Tommy John, and the Giants pitching staff in the minors has done well in terms of working with pitchers with mechanics issues (Zack Wheeler being the biggest example).

Dominican Summer League Begins 2011 Season

The Dominican Summer League is on its way, as the DSL Giants defeated the DSL Cubs by the score of 2-0. As someone who has an interest in international baseball, the beginning of the DSL is a very exciting time and adds a whole new flavor to the minor league baseball season as well as this blog.

First off, from now on, that means the DSL is going to be covered in the periodic Farm Watch updates. Furthermore, we also will be looking at prospects that currently are on the DSL roster. The DSL Giants are coming off a successful campaign from a year ago, as they won the South Boca Chica division with a 46-25 record, and they also won DSL championship as well, beating the DSL Twins, three games to zero.

For those who don't know, the DSL consists of players who aren't eligible in the draft, but are usually free agent signings. Most of the players are of Latin American heritage, though you do occasionally see some European baseball prospects playing in the DSL from time to time. While there is no age limit in the DSL, most of the players are anywhere from the age of 16-21, so it is a developmental league, similar to the Arizona Summer League, which is catered to Rookies who are just drafted.

There are 33 teams in the DSL, with two teams belonging to the New York Yankees and Mets each. This is not surprising since those two organizations have a lot of money, and thus, have the luxury of investing a lot of money into their Latin American developmental teams. That being said, you're seeing some teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates and Oakland Athletics who are making a lot of strides in terms of investing more into their Latin American talent and also the facilities of their DSL teams.

As for the Giants, they have some returning talent, as Juan Nova, Marvin Barrios, Franklin Noel, and Ariel Hernandez are the pitchers of note that return from last year's championship pitching staff. In terms of the offense, Leonardo Fuentes, Victor Feliz, Gabriel Cornier, Luis Vazquez and Fernando Pujedas are some of the hitters that contributed to the DSL Giants in 2010.

In terms of new, promising talent, the big guy to watch is Adalberto Mejia, a recent Giants signee who started on Opening Day and threw five scoreless innings and struck out five while only allowing two hits and one walk. Some other new guys to watch are Carlos Cartagena, Randy Ortiz, Noel Diaz, Shurendell Mujica, and Julio Pena. Ortiz had a good showing on Opening Day, as he had two hits, stole a base and scored two runs, while Mujica had two hits including a double and a RBI.

Overall, it'll be interesting see if any guys emerge from the DSL this year. Some recent prospects who have graduated from the DSL and are in the Giants system are Francisco Peguero, Carlos Willoughby, Rafael Rodriguez, Ehire Adrianza, Ydwin Villegas, Jose Casilla, Jorge Bucardo, and Kendry Flores. It'll be interesting to see if the DSL squad this year can produce any prospects of those caliber after the 2011 year has concluded.

Farm Watch: Roster Turnover Hurts Grizzlies, San Jose and Richmond Climbing, Kickham off to "Kicking" Start

It's been a while, but I figured it was time to do a "Farm Watch" update. Here's a look on how things are going with the Giants minor league affiliates.



Fresno Grizzlies, 22-28 heading into May 29th

• The Grizzlies have had a lot of roster turnover lately. Emmanuel Burriss, Chris Stewart and Brandon Belt all got callups the past week, and Ryan Rohlinger and Henry Sosa were designated for assignment. All the roster change has clearly had an effect on the Grizzlies, as they have lost seven of their last 10 games. The biggest problem for the Grizzlies has been a punch-less offense, which has only averaged 4.76 R/G, fifth worst in the PCL. With catalysts like Burriss and Belt gone, the Grizzlies will depend even more on Brett Pill, Travis Ishikawa, Conor Gillaspie and Thomas Neal for offensive production.
• Speaking of Neal, he has just come off the disabled list, and he's back on track. He hit a home run on May 27th, and yesterday, he went 2-for-4 with 2 RBI and a stolen base. Neal is currently hitting .358 with a .951 OPS and two home runs, eight RBI and three stolen bases on five attempts. He has drawn only two walks in 57 plate appearances, but he has only struck out seven times, and his contact rate remains solid at 87 percent. Granted, this is a short sample, and one has to wonder how Neal will perform over the long course of the PCL season. Nonetheless, considering Neal has been floating under the radar this year with all the Brandon Belt hype, it would be nice to see Neal have a solid year in Fresno.
• One of the "bigger than people realize" stories of this latest wave of transactions has to be Henry Sosa being designated for assignment. The Giants protected Sosa from the Rule 5 Draft by adding him to the 40-man roster last year, and unfortunately, it seems like it may not have been worth it. Rule 5 draftee Joe Paterson is performing solidly with the Diamondbacks, as he has 11 strikeouts in 11.2 IP and has only allowed seven hits and one earned run. As for Sosa, he imploded in Fresno this year, as he allowed 39 hits and 30 runs in 23.1 IP, good for a 10.41 ERA. Sosa hasn't seemed to recover from the injuries that have plagued him in 2008 and 2009. His K/9 rate has significantly dropped since it was 9.3 in 2008 with San Jose, and his H/9 has climbed from 7.6 to 8.8 to 15.0 the past three years. I imagine some team is going to claim Sosa, just because he was such a decorated prospect a few years ago, so this is probably the end of Sosa's time in the Giants organization.
• He probably is going to spend the year in Fresno unless some more injuries happen (completely possible considering how things are going now), but Brad Eldred is making some noise for the Grizzlies offensively. At six-foot, six inches, and 270 pounds, Eldred is a lumbering outfielder that probably wouldn't do well defensively in AT&T Park's big dimensions. However, he has showed some skill with the bat, as he is hitting .301 with seven home runs, 14 RBI and an OPS of .971. Eldred was formerly in the Pirates and Rockies systems before being non-tendered by Colorado last year, and he has brought some pop to a Grizzlies offense that desperately needs it. Eldred isn't exactly a prospect, as he is 30 years old and currently in his seventh season in professional ball, but he looks to be an interesting bat that could help the Grizzlies this season.

Richmond Flying Squirrels, 24-24 heading into May 29th.

• The Squirrels have finally reached the .500 mark, and seem to be making strides, as they are only 2.5 games back behind the Harrisburg Senators (the Nationals' Double-A affiliate). The key to the Flying Squirrels' success has been the pitching, as they are allowing only 3.52 R/G and are posting a team ERA of 2.85, both best in the Eastern League. The starting rotation has been studly, as Eric Surkamp, Ryan Verdugo and Justin Fitzgerald have carried the staff, posting ERAs of 1.53, 2.93 and 3.14, respectively. Clayton Tanner has struggled a bit, as he is sporting an ERA of 4.84, but his K/BB ratio at 2.29 is better than Fitzgerald (1.22), so it is possible that Tanner is going through a bad stretch. With the offense a bit inconsistent (Richmond's 3.73 R/G is third-worst in the EL), so the pitching is going to have to carry the Flying Squirrels if they want to make a run for the division title.
• Kind of amazing, but the Flying Squirrels have two pitchers in Double-A who were pitching for the Giants in 2008. Osiris Matos and Alex Hinshaw have struggled immensely with control and command problems since 2009, and now they are down in the Eastern League trying to figure things out. Hinshaw has always had great strikeout stuff (career 11.1 K/9 in the minors), but he has never been able to figure out his walk problems (career 6.3 BB/9 in the minors). As for Matos, he has been solid this year in Richmond (8.33 K/BB ratio, 2.23 ERA in 32.1 IP), but at the same time, he is 26 years old and he pitched the last two years in Triple-A. He may get an opportunity to pitch in the PCL later this year, but at the same time, you wonder if Matos will be anything more than a career minor-league pitcher.
• After a slow start, Roger Kieschnick is starting to pick things up at the plate. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .316 with three doubles, a triple, a home run and five RBI. He also has two stolen bases and five walks, and is posting a .922 OPS during this recent stretch. The strikeouts are still there, as he has had 10 strikeouts over the 10 game span. Nonetheless, it's nice to see some improvement from Kieschnick, who had a disastrous season ago as he struggled through injuries and ineffectiveness. With an offense that is being carried by Charlie Culberson right now, the Flying Squirrels need Kieschnick's bat to be competitive, and right now, he's on the right track.

San Jose Giants, 34-15 heading into May 29th.

• After getting off to a hot start with the bat, Chris Dominguez has cooled off in his last 10 games. He is hitting .237 with zero home runs, two RBI and has 12 strikeouts in 38 at-bats. He does have six walks in this time span, but considering he hit nine home runs in his first 38 games, the power dip is a bit concerning. It could be just a bad stretch, and considering the environment of the California League, it could be just a matter of time before Dominguez starts showcasing his home run stroke again in San Jose. That being said, at 24 years old, Dominguez isn't exactly young for the Cal League, and thus, if he wants to keep his high status as a prospect, he needs to continue to display his power tools.
• Another guy that has cooled off dramatically is Wendell Fairley, as he is posting a .557 OPS in his last ten games. Fairley has always been good in terms of his strike zone recognition, as he is posting an OBP of .358 and a BB/K ratio of 0.61. However, he has never displayed much power in the minors, as his slugging percentage this year (.350) would be a career high. Since this is Fairley's second go-around in the Cal League, a lot of progress was expected for the first round draft pick in 2011. And, even though he is performing better at the plate than a year ago, there hasn't been enough significant progress this year to show that Fairley is a serious prospect in the Giants system.
• While Fairley has floundered, one outfielder that has come on strong is first-year player Jarrett Parker. He is posting a .792 OPS in his last ten games, and has seven RBI, seven walks and three stolen bases to boot. Parker sports an .808 OPS total for the year, and is hitting .264 in 193 plate appearances with four home runs and 24 RBI. Parker could be better in terms of cutting down his strikeouts (he has a strikeout percentage of 28 percent), but considering this is his first year of professional ball and he is only 22 years old, the progress he has shown is comforting. Of course, we have seen first year players do well in High-A, only to fall back to earth in the transition to Double-A (case in point: Kieschnick), but at the same time, Parker is an interesting prospect with some interesting tools who could do well with more at-bats as a professional.

Augusta Green Jackets,  20-29 heading into May 29th.

• It was expected that Ehire Adrianza would start out the year in Richmond until an injury forced him on the Disabled List to begin the year. In Augusta though, Adrianza has struggled once again at the plate, as he is hitting .176 with a .586 OPS in 62 plate appearances. Adrianza has still showed good plate discipline (0.67 BB/K ratio), but as noted before, he has struggled to hit for much power or average in his minor league career. Defensively, nobody can doubt that Adrianza is the best fielding infielder in the Giants system. However, with Brandon Crawford making his debut with the Giants this weekend, there is a little bit of pressure on Adrianza to perform. He needs to show what he can do at a higher level so the Giants brass can figure out what to do with him and how much value he has as a prospect. With the slow start in the Sally, Adrianza certainly isn't making things easy for Giants management.
• In his first full year in the minors, Mike Kickham is off to a good start. He is posting a 1.80 ERA and has 18 strikeouts and only three walks in three starts and 15 innings pitched. A sixth-round pick out of Missouri State a year ago, Kickham was rated the 16th best prospect in the Giants system by Baseball America in their 2011 Prospect Handbook. Kickham, according to Baseball America, has a good fastball that touches 94 MPH, and has a plus slider and a hard breaking ball. There definitely is some promise with Kickham, as he seems to be a polished college arm that could move up quickly if he continues to display the solid stuff and command that he showed in his first three starts with the Green Jackets.
• Another interesting arm in the Green Jackets' pitching staff is Stephen Harrold, who has been stellar out of the Augusta pen. He is posting an ERA of 1.48 in 24.1 IP and he has 22 strikeouts and a K/BB ratio of 2.75. A 12th round pick out of UNC-Wilmington, Harrold isn't exactly a heralded arm (he wasn't on the radar of any prospect analysts' Giants list), but he has shown good command, and control in the Sally this year. He also did have a solid year in Salem-Keizer a year ago where he struck out 28 batters in 22.2 IP. For a team that doesn't hit well (the Green Jackets' .236 batting average is last in the league, and their 4.45 R/G is second-to-last), Harrold is a valuable asset to this Green Jackets team. As a prospect though, we'll have to just wait and see how he'll progress over the year, but I like what he has displayed with his command and control in his first two years in the minors.

Can the Brandons Spark the Giants in Buster's Absence?

It took me a while to write this. Not because of research or anything like that, but simply because I was so steamed about the Buster Posey injury from last night. I'm kind of going through the seven stages of grief right now, and if anything, I'm probably just past the anger stage. That's how tough this day has been and how hard I've taken this Posey setback (much like most of Giants nation).

That being said, Posey is out for an extended period of time (most likely the year), and the Giants will have to make it through. I'll have a profile on catcher Chris Stewart at some point, but the real story of the day other than Posey's injury is the callups of Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford (other minor news was Ryan Rohlinger and Henry Sosa being designated for assignment to make room for Crawford and Stewart; Sosa was No. 26 in my list). Belt was an expected callup, simply because he was hitting very well in Fresno, but the Crawford promotion comes as a surprise. After all, he started the season on the disabled list, and while he was putting up good numbers in San Jose, it was only High Single-A. I figured it was more of a rehab stint before he got the eventual callup to Fresno (where he was expected to start the year prior to injury). However, with Mike Fontenot joining Posey and Darren Ford on the disabled list, the need for depth in the middle infield was huge, and the Giants made the decision to call up Crawford along with Belt and Stewart.

In terms of Belt, the promotion was obvious: the Giants desperately need offense, and Belt has been hitting well in Fresno. The Giants managed to garner only three hits today against Anibal Sanchez, and Aubrery Huff and Cody Ross haven't exactly lit it up with the Giants this year. Belt showed some nice strides in Fresno. In 31 games and 132 plate appearance, Belt hit .337 with a .994 OPS and added four home runs and 21 RBI in his tenure with the Grizzlies. The strongest aspect of Belt's game in Fresno was his strong ability to draw a walk and get on base, as he posted an OBP of .470 and had a BB/K ratio of 0.87. Additionally, Belt showed some versatility with the Grizzlies, as he played left and right field and first base, with a majority of his playing time coming in the outfield (he played 26 games total in the outfield). Thus, he brings a lot of utility defensively, which is good since it was obvious in the beginning of the year that Huff was probably more suited for first base only.

Belt though was far from perfect in Fresno. He struck out 31 times, a 30.6 percent rate. Furthermore, his contact rate wasn't very impressive at 69 percent (you read that right). While Belt wasn't overpowered or overwhelmed by the Pacific Coast League pitching, it was obvious that his plate patience was his worst enemy at times. Belt seemed to be almost too selective, and he ended up helping pitchers by getting behind in counts early and often in many of his at-bats. Now, I don't think Belt will be a 69 percent contact hitter in the Majors. In his short tenure with the Giants earlier this year, he posted a contact rate of 77.7, so his low contact rate may have just been a stretch where he was figuring out the pitching and what he could hit for power and what he could lay off of. Nonetheless, Belt probably needs to show more aggressiveness at the dish this time around in the Majors, for he is needed to spark this Giants offense, and MLB pitchers won't make as many mistakes as PCL hurlers.

Another issue for Belt is the decrease in power from a year ago. After posting slugging percentages of .623 in Richmond and .563 in Fresno a season ago, Belt's slugging dipped to .525 this year. Also his ISO fell to .188 with the Grizzlies, the first time it had ever been under the .200 mark in his minor league career. Still though, Belt does offer a lot of offensive upside, even with the power numbers down, and if you look at his competition, Belt doesn't need to be incredible offensively (Huff has a slugging of .337 and Ross has a slugging of .378). If he can be in the mid-to-high .700 (or even low .800) range in terms of OPS for the remainder of the year in San Francisco, and if he can continue to display his solid eye at the plate (he did produce a BB/K ratio of 0.62 in the Majors this year), then Belt certainly will be a boost to this inconsistent Giants offense (and it is possible in my opinion, as his Major League Equivalent from a year ago produced an OPS of .896).

As for Crawford, he is coming off a very promising stint in San Jose this season, as he .312 with a 1.005 OPS. He also added three home runs and 15 RBI, and looked very much like the hitter he was two years earlier in the California League. That being said, the California League is the California League, and considering Crawford spent the past two years in Double-A Richmond, it shouldn't be surprising to anyone that he hit as well as he did in in San Jose.

The big question for Crawford will be how he will adjust in the Majors after relatively struggling in the Eastern League the past two years. His Major League Equivalent from a year ago produced a .226 average, a .303 OBP, a .347 slugging, a .650 OPS, a contact rate of 77 percent and a BB/K ratio of 0.47. Those numbers aren't exactly on par with what Giants fans saw from Crawford this year in San Jose. Nonetheless, Crawford may be okay if he can post those numbers this year, or perhaps perform slightly above. Crawford is a solid defender who has gotten good reports from scouts and the Giants brass. An OPS in the .700 range would be a luxury for this Giants team considering his defense, and even an OPS in the mid .600 range would be tolerable. After all, he hasn't played beyond Double-A, so there is going to be a learning period for Crawford at the plate, and the Giants management and fans need to be patient as he develops.

The big issue with Crawford is his plate discipline, as he has had a tendency to strike out a lot and not draw a lot of walks to boot. In 2009, he posted BB/K ratios of 0.31 and 0.20 in San Jose and Connecticut, respectively. Last year, his BB/K ratio improved to 0.51 in Richmond, but he still struck out 26.5 percent of the time, which is uncomfortably high. This year in San Jose, he struck out 22 percent of the time, so even despite the low level for his age, he continued to have issues in terms of making contact at the plate. However, his 0.69 BB/K ratio was the best number in his minor league career, and one can hope that Crawford can transition that confidence and approach to the Majors this year.

Crawford may have been called up prematurely because of the dire need for depth in the Giants infield with Fontenot and Pablo Sandoval on the DL. That being said, this stint with the Giants will be very telling for Crawford. If he can hold his own somewhat, it'll give the Giants even more incentive to hand him the starting position next year. If not, then one could see the Giants management panic and look to deal for Jose Reyes, which would cost the Giants a lot of money in addition to some valuable prospects. I'm not expecting the world from Crawford in this callup. But if he can be a replacement-level player offensively, he could be of some value to this Giants roster because he still has room to grow and develop as a player, and he's an obvious upgrade over Miguel Tejada defensively at shortstop.

OTF MLB Draft Peek: Jason Esposito, SS/3B, and Brian Goodwin, OF

In one day, we will officially be a week away from the MLB Draft! Exciting isn't it? While I'm not sure what I'm going to do for Draft Day (on this blog, specifically), I think I may have only one or two more posts left in terms of going over possible prospects that the Giants could be taking in this year's draft.

In this post, I'm going to look at two prospects who have gone in some mock drafts in the Giants slot. They are position players, however, and though this Giants system needs to re-stock their pitching, these are two players whom the Giants may have a tough time passing on if they're available. Let's take a look at infielder Jason Esposito from Vanderbilt and outfielder Brian Goodwin, a JuCo prospect out of Miami-Dade CC.


Jason Esposito, SS/3B, Vanderbilt University



Prospect Junkies in their latest mock draft had Esposito going to the Giants at No. 29. The possibility of the Giants picking Esposito is enticing, as he would bring a lot of offensive and speed upside to the left side of the infield. Granted, the Giants are pretty set at shortstop with Ehire Adrianza and Brandon Crawford, but third base is a little more open for competition, and Esposito has a lot of excellent tools and is coming off a pretty decent year at the plate in his junior season with the Commodores.

Esposito was a 7th round pick by the Kansas City Royals in 2008, and despite Dayton Moore and the Royals offering him a $1.5 million signing bonus, he decided to stick with his commitment to Vanderbilt. So far, it hasn't exactly been a bad decision. In his three years in Nashville, he has a career batting average of .331, an OBP of .407 and he has accumulated 22 home runs and 154 RBI in 713 collegiate at-bats. Additionally, he has shown good speed on the base paths over his career, as he has swiped 63 bases.

Offensively, he has a solid bat with some pop. While he isn't a home run hitter, he does have gap to gap power, as he has hit 58 doubles with the Commodores. MLB Draft Insider graded his current power as a 50, but did give him 55 potential. His contact rates have swooned a little bit, as he posted rates of 79.7, 86.6 and 83.1 percent in his three seasons at Vandy, but the big concern though with Esposito is his inconsistent plate discipline. While he has sported solid OBP numbers, his BB/K ratios have fluctuated over his collegiate career. His three year ratios at Vanderbilt are 0.33, 0.97 and 0.38 (though in 2011, he was hit 13 times, so if you add that into his BB totals, the BB/K ratio goes up to 0.75; however, I attribute that less to plate approach and more to the wildness of the pitchers he has faced). Thus, the huge waves make you wonder how well Esposito understands the strike zone. John Klima said this about Esposito's plate discipline on a video sample he recorded in April:

"The teams that dig Esposito are going to go on more swings like that first one — they’ll like the body, the hands, the compact stroke, the hip speed and the bat speed. He does flash those tools. If you made your final judgment on the rest of his life based on these four swings, you’d say, well, dude better learn some discipline."

It's obvious that Esposito flashes the right tools to succeed as a professional, but his inconsistency does throw some red flags. Furthermore, Klima also feels that Esposito doesn't flash enough power to play the corner position, and contests that a switch to shortstop may raise his stock as a prospect. While I don't necessarily agree totally with the statement (I think there have been examples of third basemen who have succeeded in the Majors without tremendous power), he does have a point. His bat would be good for a third baseman, but great for a shortstop (think Brandon Crawford with a little bit more power). If Esposito could make the transition to shortstop, offensively he'd be a much more enticing prospect to teams in the draft.

Defensively, Esposito's glove grades out pretty well, though it seems to be that he projects more as a third baseman than a shortstop (though as noted by Kilma above, his stock would be better served by a move toward the middle of the infield). MLB Draft Insider graded his glove a 50 with 55 potential and his arm a 50 with 55 potential (this is on the customary 20-80 scale). Zachary Ball of Pro Draft Central had this to say about Esposito in his scouting report:

"Much more athletic and graceful in the field than his predecessor [2008 1st Round Draft pick Pedro Alvarez], Esposito looks like a third baseman. He has a great arm, more than adequate for the position, and on the mound he can crank it up to the low 90s. He has great soft hands, and his footwork has improved to the point where he could be one of the top defensive third basemen in this class."

Another concern about Esposito is whether or not he's just a product of the offense-heavy college environment. (e.g. can his power and hitting translate with wooden bats?) While his collegiate numbers are very good, he has struggled in two years in the Cape Cod League. In 111 at-bats in his first year in the Cape Cod, he hit .198 with a .233 OBP and .449 OPS. He only hit two extra base hits (two doubles) and he fanned 30 times and walked only four times (a 0.13 BB/K ratio). His second season in 2010 wasn't much better, as he hit only .246 with a .592 OPS in 65 at-bats. While he cut down the strikeouts (13), he didn't walk much either, and thus, his BB/K ratio (0.38) wasn't that impressive, though it was certainly an improvement the second-time around.

As a prospect, Esposito is interesting because he flashes good tools defensively and he has some potential with the bat as well. That being said, his stock has fluctuated greatly, as some saw him as more of a second to third round pick going into the 2011 season. If there is one thing going in Esposito's favor though, it is his pedigree, as Vanderbilt has had a history of producing good Major League talent recently, with Alvarez, David Price and current prospect Sonny Gray, who is projected as a Top-5 pick. While the Giants may not have a drastic need to pick up Esposito in the first round (as noted before in previous posts, pitching should be their main focus this draft), he could be a steal in the supplemental round or even second round if he's available.


Brian Goodwin, OF, Miami-Dade CC (Florida)



The Giants really don't have a particular need in the outfield. With Thomas Neal, Francisco Peguero, Gary Brown, Darren Ford, Rafael Rodriguez, Chuckie Jones, and Brandon Belt most likely going to make a transition to left, the Giants have considerable depth in their system in the outfield. Thus, Goodwin would seem to be an odd fit.

However, if he's available, the Giants may be tempted to pick him because he could be the best available player at No. 29 on talent alone.

At six-foot, one-inches and 190 pounds, Goodwin is a physical specimen with loads of athleticism. MLB Draft Insider graded his speed a 60, and his fielding a 50 with 55 potential. Offensively, he has a lot of tools and though he may not hit with much power as a professional, Klima noted that Goodwin's left-handed swing has "speed, strength and lift." Brewerfan.net also had this to say in his scouting report of Goodwin a year ago when he was still in high school:

"He does a lot of little things well, and has four legitimate tools, lacking power as the only tool to make him the always coveted five-tool talent. And despite his lack of power, Goodwin will surprise you with his pop from time to time. Most of his power goes to the gaps, and his 6.5 speed allows him to leg out plenty of extra base hits. His bat is made for contact, as he excels at putting the ball in play and going with pitches to drive the ball up the middle and the other way. He is extremely fast out of the box, and gets down the line to first base as a left-handed hitter as well as anyone, allowing him to be a threat on infield grounders and bunt plays."

Brewerfan.net made Andrew McCutchen comparisons with Goodwin, though I don't know if Goodwin will have the power upside like McCutchen. That being said, defensively and on the basepaths, the comparisons are definitely valid, as his athleticism may be up there with anybody in this current draft. Baseball Factory ranked him as the 21st best prospect out of high school in 2009, and noted that he was "A natural OF prospect with a fluid LH stroke, Goodwin makes everything look very easy on the field. He glides to balls in the outfield and finds the barrel at the plate with a consistent, low-effort swing."

Before transferring to Miami-Dade CC, Goodwin starred at the University of North Carolina, as he hit .291 with 7 home runs and 63 RBI, while posting an OBP of .409 and an OPS of .920 in 227 at-bats. Furthermore, he showed excellent strike zone recognition, as he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.92. He did strike out a lot (49 times, the second highest total on the team), and his contact rate left a little to be desired (78 percent), but it was still solid for a freshman. Additionally, while he wasn't given the green light to go on the basepaths as much as other players, he did steal seven bases on nine attempts, and did leg out a team-high eight triples, so the speed set is obviously there.

However, in November of 2010, Goodwin was ruled ineligible for the 2011 season, for violating university policy. While the specifics of the suspension never went public, it was widely speculated that academic issues were the main reason why he ended up transferring to junior college his sophomore year. While his makeup has gotten good reports (Brewerfan.net had sterling reports about his makeup and attitude in high school), the suspension is a bit of a red flag in some ways, and makes you wonder if he can avoid trouble as a professional. Nonetheless, it probably could have been a case that Goodwin was focused solely on baseball at a good academic university, and that's not uncommon with baseball players (and athletes in general) in college.

Still though, Goodwin has an excellent toolset and a high ceiling for a prospect. He also performed well in the Cape Cod League, as 5 Tool Talk wrote this about his performance in the summer league:

"His early collegiate success continued into last summer, as he finished 11th among those that qualified on the Cape in batting with a .281 average. During his time with Harwich, he also posted a .364 on-base percentage, stole 15 bases (good for eighth in the league) in 19 attempts and six of his 32 hits went for extra bases."

I don't know if Goodwin will be available at the Giants' slot. He could go in the 10-20 range, simply because his potential and tools may be too much to pass up for MLB general managers. That being said, if he's available at No. 29, the Giants should think about swiping him up, even despite the outfield depth, because he has the potential to develop into a very promising and special Major League player.

OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 15, Ryan Verdugo, LHP

I'm winding down in the Top-32 Most Interesting Prospects list for 2011, and at No. 15, I have left-handed pitcher Ryan Verdugo. Now, Verdugo isn't a high-ceiling pitcher like some guys on this list, and in terms of his tools, I wonder if he could transition and find a spot on the Giants' Major League roster. Nonetheless, he is a high-strikeout pitcher who has put up great numbers in the minors, so I he has some promise and was worth taking a look at in this spot.

Verdugo came out of baseball powerhouse LSU as a pretty under-the-radar pitcher. He was drafted twice by the Giants, in the 47th round in the 2007 MLB draft, and in the 9th round of the 2008 draft. Verdugo is a pitcher who relies heavily on his fastball, but does possess a slider and curve (his curve was rated a three-plus according to Rob Gordon of the MLBA). Verdugo did have some hype out of high school, as he was won the Mr. Baseball award in Washington as a senior. There was some issues with his health though, as he underwent Tommy John surgery while in Junior College, which hurt his stock after he declared for the draft again after he finished Junior College in 2007.

He broke into professional ball in 2008, and performed well in his first year as a pro, showcasing some good stuff as a reliever in the Arizona Fall League (he was primarily used as a starter while at LSU). He made eight appearances in Arizona and struck out 19 batters in 13 innings pitched, while allowing nine hits, three runs and six walks. Verdugo finished the season with a 2.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 3.17 K/BB ratio.

In his first full year as a professional, the Giants promoted Verdugo to Augusta and he made 21 appearances with the Green Jackets and finished five games. In 32.1 IP, he struck out 45 batters and allowed only 19 hits and 6 runs. Walks however, were a bit of a concern for the lefty, as he walked 19 batters, good for a 5.3 BB/9. The high walk rate killed his overall K/BB ratio in the Sally, lowering it 2.37 (he had a K/9 of 13.5, which is very impressive). Still, though his overall numbers were pretty impressive for a 22-year old in his first professional season, as he finished the year with a 1.39 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Still under the radar going into 2010 (he was not mentioned in Baseball America's Top-30 or John Sickels's Top-20 Giants lists), Verdugo started the year in Augusta again, pitching 32 innings and striking out 50 while allowing 26 hits and 14 walks. His walk rate went down (3.9) and his K/BB ratio went up (3.57), and thus, the Giants organization decided to promote him to High Single-A San Jose in July. In the Cal League, the walk issues came back (his BB/9 jumped back up to 5.6), but he still struck guys out at a good rate (12.9) and posted excellent ERA and WHIP numbers (1.47 and 1.11, respectively).

This year, Verdugo got a little bit more attention from prospect analysts, as Sickels listed him as an honorable mention in his Top-20 list, and Baseball America ranked him the 25th best Giants prospect in the organization. However, the biggest change for Verdugo this year was his switch to the rotation in Richmond. Primarily a reliever for most of his minor league career (he only started one game, and that was in San Jose in 2009), many wondered if Verdugo had the versatility to go five to seven innings a game (his career high in innings pitched was in 2010 when he threw 62 IP).

It has paid off though, as he has been a solid addition to the Flying Squirrels pitching staff. He has made eight starts and thrown 41 IP, but he is posting a solid ERA (3.07) and a decent WHIP (1.37). Additionally, while his strikeout rates are down from previous years (expected since he is pitching more innings and facing batters more than once in a game), he is still showing good strikeout ability (9.7 K/9). He could show better command (2.75 K/BB ratio), but it certainly is above average and an improvement from his previous stint in San Jose. Also, he is coming off a 6.1 inning, 5-hit, 10 strikeout performance against Erie in his most recent outing, which is a good sign of how well he is making batters miss while logging more innings as a starter (he did earn the loss though, unfortunately, but it was still a pretty solid start nonetheless).

Physically, there is still some concern whether or not Verdugo will be able to transition his Minor League success (career 2.10 ERA in the minors) to the Majors. He doesn't sport an electric fastball (it goes in the 92 MPH range), and there have long been questions about his command (carer 2.81 K/BB) and secondary pitches. That being said, Verduo has shown flashes of promise in the minors, and he tore it up in the Arizona Fall League last year. Here is what Fangraphs writers, Carson Cistuli, said about Verdugo in a review of the AFL:

"Scottsdale’s Ryan Verdugo went straight to the top of the SCOUT pitching charts last night after doing this against the Phoenix Desert Dogs: 17 BF, 4.0 IP, 3 BB, 9 K. He’s made all of one start in his minor league career, which began in 2008 after being drafted in the ninth round by San Francisco. He has 167 K in 113.0 IP across four levels, most recently in the High-A California League."

Statistically speaking, Verdugo has shown great strides and improvement in his time in the Giants organization. Furthermore, his transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation has been interesting, mainly because it has increased his value greatly. That being said, Verdugo's future seems to be very cloudy at this point. I think he has a shot in terms of becoming a decent Major League pitcher. His ability to make batters miss can't be debated (12.3 career K/9). At the very least, he seems like he could develop into a Dan Runzler-esque option out of the bullpen for the Giants in the future, and considering Jeremy Affeldt has struggled to regain his 2009 form the past two years, a left-hander like Verdugo could be an enticing option.

At the same time though, it seems like the Giants are grooming Verdugo to be a starter, and as we all know there isn't much room in the Giants rotation for another starter. Furthermore, he's behind other top-tier starting pitching prospects like Zack Wheeler and Eric Surkamp (and rightfully so), and with the June Rule 4 Draft loaded with pitching talent, one has to wonder how much time Verdugo has left with the Giants. If anything, he's probably trade fodder at this point, mainly because he's a good arm that would bring some value to any impending deal this year or this off-season.

I think Verdugo could have some impact for the Giants, and like Runzler, he could be a cheap, effective bullpen option. Unfortunately, if he remains a starter, his days in the Giants organization seem numbered. It's just a matter of time of when Brian Sabean makes that deal, whether it's this year or after the season is over.

The Evolution of Zack Wheeler's Pitching Delivery

I was on twitter, and I was able to check out a condensed start of Zack Wheeler in San Jose, courtesy of Splashing Pumpkins' Twitter (if you haven't checked out his blog, do so; it's one of the better ones out there and he also posts on Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish). He definitely showcased some wildness, but it's incredibly evident that he has electric stuff.

Being the curious cat that I am, I decided to go back and look up some of Wheeler's appearances from high school and Augusta on YouTube. It's amazing to see how much his delivery and mechanics have changed since his high school days. So, I'm going to post three videos and analyze all three.


Zack Wheeler in High School



A few things are pretty noticeable here. First off, he keeps his hands far away from his body in his twisting pitching motion. Furthermore, he has a pretty high leg kick, as it is almost Orlando Hernandez-esque. The only difference between him and Hernandez is that Wheeler keeps his glove high (around his head), while Hernandez kept his glove low around his waist (though Hernandez threw three quarter to sidearm, so that explains why his hands are so low). Another noticeable aspect about his delivery is how his back is mostly facing the pitcher. His shoulders are almost square to third base. While it does hide his pitches, he seems to be overcompensating with this twisting motion. Very few pitchers in the big leagues can do this and get away with it.

The most glaring quality of his windup has to be the sidestep with his right foot in his windup motion. He literally takes a full step to the left in his windup. Pay attention to this as you watch video of him in Augusta and how he makes that adjustment. In the stretch, he is mostly closed, with his left leg straight and lined up more toward third base when he gets set.

While the ball explodes off Wheeler's hand, there are a lot of moving parts in his pitching motion. That's not necessarily a good thing unless you're Tim Lincecum, but Lincecum is a superior athlete and has done so much to perfect his acrobatic pitching delivery that he can get away with it. Lincecum is an exception to the rule, not the standard. While Wheeler isn't a bad athlete, his violent delivery was an issue with scouts, and many felt that the Giants would have to refine it in order to protect him over the long term.


Zack Wheeler in Augusta



Wheeler's pitching motion is a little bit more contained in this video of him pitching in the Sally. While you mostly see game footage of him in the windup, you do get some telling things of his stretch pitching motion in his bullpen work.

What jumps out immediately to you his feet. In his high school days, he had a wider base, as his feet were about shoulder's length apart, if not a little more. He's closed up a little bit more, though it's not totally dramatic. Another change is that he's shortened up the windup, getting rid of the huge step to first base in his windup. I figured that would be one of the first changes to his pitching motion when he got to the big leagues, as it makes his pitching motion more refined and consistent.

The hands are also a lot closer to his body in Augusta and the leg kick isn't as high as well. He still twists a little bit and he is closed in the stretch, but it should be noted that it's less dramatic than it was in high school. Nonetheless, his delivery and mechanics look cleaner then they were in high school. He isn't moving around as much, and it isn't as violent as well. It's obvious the coaching staff made good strides with him in his transition from high school ball to Single A.


Zack Wheeler in San Jose



This is Wheeler at his best. His hands are closer to his body in his windup, the leg kick is lower and consistent, and he isn't exaggerating as much with his shoulders in his pitching motion. While in high school and Augusta his shoulders were facing more toward third, that isn't so much the case. His windup looks cleaner, and he seems to be exerting a lot less energy while still maintaining good velocity and movement on his pitches.

In the stretch, the biggest difference is that he's opened up a little bit when set. His left leg is more toward first base than third. It seems to have paid off, as he generates a good and quick delivery to the plate. He could be a little more consistent in his delivery out of the stretch (it does change a little from time to time, which accounts for his spotty command in this video, but that is to be expected for a 21 year old), but overall, you have to like the more compact nature of his delivery in San Jose in comparison to his more "moving" pitching motion back in high school.

Overall, the Giants pitching staff in the minors has worked a lot with Wheeler, and it's obvious that it's paid some dividends. He has changed as a pitcher in San Jose, and he is less raw now than he was a couple of years ago when he was a hot shot high school prospect. He still has some work. He needs to be more consistent of course in his delivery (especially in the stretch) and his command and control is still an issue, as you can see in the video of his May 11th start in San Jose. That being said, Wheeler has developed nicely and it'll be interesting how much he develops physically as he continues to climb up the Giants system. It's obvious that he has the stuff, size and tools to succeed as a Major League pitcher. It's just a matter of whether or not he'll be refined enough in his mechanics and command.