The Shortstop Prospect Argument: Crawford or Adrianza?

With Miguel Tejada most likely a one-year rental at the most, the big concern for the Giants right now seems to be the future of their shortstop position. In the minors, there are two prospects that have gained a lot of noise the past few years: Brandon Crawford and Ehire Adrianza. Both prospects offer significant upside with their gloves and are probably Major League ready defenders, but there have been some questions with the bat, which is probably why Tejada was signed to a one-year deal when Juan Uribe left town for a three-year contract from the Dodgers. That being said, this year is a critical season for the both of them, as they may be thrust into the starting mix next year should the Giants not acquire any big name players in the next couple of months (mainly Jose Reyes, whom I'm not a fan of because he's going to be a free agent and his history of injury problems).

So, who is the better prospect? Who has more of a future with the Giants? And who has a better shot at the starting position in the next couple of years? Let's take a look at both guys.


The Case for Crawford



Offensively, at this point, it's not question that Crawford is the superior option in comparison to Adrianza. A 4th round draft pick out of UCLA in 2008, Crawford wasn't known for hitting much power in his tenure with the Bruins. However, in a 25-game stint with the San Jose Giants in 2009 (his first full season in professional ball), Crawford went on a tear, as he hit six home runs, drove in 17 RBI, and posted a batting average of .371 and OPS of 1.045 in 119 plate appearances. Impressed by the gaudy numbers in the California League, many people figured that Crawford was a sleeper of sorts, and that he was an offensive shortstop that was a far cry from light-hitting shortstop prospects such as Brian Bocock.

However, his season in the Cal League was far from perfect. He struck out 32 times and walked only 10 times, good for a BB/K ratio of 0.31. Furthermore, there was some consensus that Crawford was benefiting from the hitter friendly environments of the Cal League, as evidenced by his .493 BABIP. When Crawford made the transition to Double-A Connecticut later that season, he proved to be more mortal, as he hit only .258 with an OPS of .659. Despite more plate appearances in the Eastern League (he had 423 plate appearances0, his home run total dipped to four and he continued to swing and miss and show questionable plate discipline with the Defenders as he struck out 100 times and posted a BB/K ratio of 0.20. Of course, he was only 22, and the Eastern League (Connecticut especially) is known to sap hitters' power, so some kind of regression in his slugging numbers was to be expected. That being said, the worries that Crawford's sketchy strike zone recognition would be a problem as he climbed up the Giants system was fully evident in his Double-A stint in 2009.

In his second season in the Eastern League (this time in Richmond), Crawford struggled through injury and ineffectiveness at the plate. His batting average was worse this time around (.241) in 79 games and 342 plate appearances with the Flying Squirrels, and he still struck out in bunches (26.5 percent). However, there were some positive signs in his second go-around in the EL. He showed more power (he hit seven home runs and his ISO jumped up to .134; his ISO was .107 the previous year in Double-A) and his plate approach improved, as his walk rate climbed up to 11.4 (a career high) and his BB/K ratio improved to 0.51 (another career high). The contact rate was still a bit sub-par (0.74), but until he broke his hand in July, many thought Crawford was making the necessary developments in 2010 to earn a shot at the starting Giants shortstop position in 2011 or 2012 at the latest.

This year, Marc Hulet of Fangraphs ranked Crawford as the ninth best prospect in the Giants organization. He had this to say about him in his January writeup:

"Crawford had a reputation as a good fielding shortstop with a weak bat in college. His profile changed a bit when he got off to a strong start in high-A ball in ‘09. His bat wilted with a promotion to double-A. Back at the same level in 2010, Crawford struggled offensively once again and produced a triple-slash line of .241/.337/.375 in 342 plate appearances. Strikeouts are one of his biggest weaknesses, posting a strikeout rate of 26.5 K%...He has a nice quiet stance but could stand to use his legs more. Crawford also pulls his head off the pitchers at times. Despite his limitations, his work at shortstop could earn him a regular gig at the MLB level but his ceiling could be that of Adam Everett or perhaps J.J. Hardy with less power."

Crawford started the year on the disabled list, and has spent a short stint in San Jose for Rehab. This is pretty much expected since a.) he didn't go through much Spring Training and b.) you want to make sure he's totally healthy, and it's better to figure that out at a lower level where he won't get his confidence shot. So far, if anything, he's been gaining confidence in this Cal League rehab stint, as he is hitting .296 with an .897 OPS and two home runs and 12 RBI. It's only a matter of time really before he earns that promotion to Fresno, where he was expected to start the year prior to landing on the disabled list.

In terms of comparing him to Adrianza, Crawford certainly is more Major League ready. Adrianza hasn't played over High-A at any point in his career, while Crawford has already had two stints in the Eastern League. While Crawford's upside defensively is not as high as Adrianza's, there's no question that he is more than capable of handling the position (he has a career fielding percentage of .974 and a RF/G of 4.85 in the minors). The only question is how Crawford's hitting approach will hold up in the Majors. There is some power upside (though it certainly comes in streaks), and I think he'll be able to draw walks at a decent rate, but he whiffs a lot, and his power or walks may not be strong enough to make up for the amount of strikeouts he could have in a full year of Major League ball.

Crawford may be the best solution in the short term, and it would be nice to give him a shot sometime this year, just so the Giants know what they have on their hands. Of course, it is important to see how Crawford transitions to the PCL. If he can hit well there (and I expect him too considering the PCL is a hitter's league), then I think it wouldn't be out of the question to see a Crawford callup sometime in late July or August.


The Case for Adrianza



The big problem with Adrianza is not his defense or his tools. Scouts love his range and fielding ability, as some tout him as having "Gold Glove" potential. He is that good and that spectacular in the field, though he does have a tendency to misplay the routine balls from time to time (as evidenced by his career .958 fielding percentage in the minors). Here is what Mike Newman of "Scouting the Sally" said in a game report about Adrianza a couple of seasons ago:

"Adrianza’s lapse of concentration in booting a routine ground ball overshadowed an otherwise impressive defensive performance. On other chances, Adrianza showed above average range, solid hands, footwork, and impressive arm strength. Of shortstops I’ve seen this season, he and Red Sox prospect Oscar Tejeda were the two best defenders hands down. However, all of Adrianza’s value is currently tied to his staying at shortstop which adds quite a bit of risk to his prospect status."

Additionally, he has some decent speed on the basepaths, as he has stolen 68 bases in his minor league career, including 33 last year in San Jose (in comparison, Crawford has only stolen 17 total in his career).

Defensive tools and base stealing aside, the bat is just a big question mark in Adrianza's future. He has never hit above .258 in any full stint (I didn't count any stint in 2008 as a full stint, since he didn't play more than 15 games at any level that year, though he did show some promise in a 2 game stint in Fresno), and he has a career OPS of .663. Adrianza pretty much is a slap hitter, who hits a lot of groundballs and not with much power. That's fine if he's doing that at the Majors and getting on base, but considering he's doing this against Single-A pitching, well...it doesn't bode well for future projection offensively.

Adrianza is more disciplined at the plate than Crawford. Unlike the UCLA product, strikeouts are not an issue with Venezuelan prospect. In 2009 in the Sally and 2010 in the Cal League, he posted strikeout percentages of 17 and 19.6 percent, respectively, which are both more tolerable numbers than Crawford's rates. Furthermore, in San Jose last year, Adrianza posted a BB/K ratio of 0.54. When you compare it to Crawford's rate in San Jose in 2009 (0.31), you would think Adrianza's plate approach and understanding of the strike zone would fare better and benefit him more than Crawford as he transitions up the Giants system.

Still though, Adrianza struggles to hit for high average, and that is always is a concern if you don't have the power to back that up. The silver lining is that scouts have noticed that he has a short compact stroke, and he has always made contact well in the minors (he has never had a contact rate below 80 percent). At the same time though, he just doesn't hit extra base hits. While his frame doesn't suggest a lot of home runs (he's six-foot, one-inch tall, 155 pounds), you would still think he'd be able to stretch a lot of singles into doubles considering his speed and athleticism. That hasn't been the case, as he had just an ISO of .092 last year and .070 the previous year in the Sally.

He is still relatively young (21 years old), but he hasn't advanced as quickly in the system as Giants fans have hoped, mainly because his bat didn't improve significantly in the jump from the pitcher-friendly Sally to the hitter-friendly Cal League. Baseball America likes Adrianza more, as they rank him the fifth-best prospect in the Giants system going into 2011 (Crawford is ranked sixth), but Gordon of the MLBA ranked Crawford (9th best Giants prospect) ahead of Adrianza (12th) in their team rankings (though Gordon rated the both of them 8D prospects).

While he may not be as close to Major League-ready as Crawford, and doesn't offer the power ceiling either, Adrianza is a more disciplined hitter who has significant defensive upside and some growing potential because he has been playing up for his age most of his career. I'm a bigger fan of Adrianza personally, mostly because of his plate discipline, glove and athleticism. I think in a couple of years, he really could develop into a special shortstop, though he certainly is more high-risk for the Giants in comparison. As for now though, it's neck and neck, and I would be perfectly content if Crawford can earn and hold the starting job in 2012.

East Bay Envy: Six Interesting Oakland A's Prospects

I always enjoy the Bay Bridge Series. Not because I consider them hated rivals like some Giants fans (in actuality, I really like the Oakland A's and don't buy into the whole "it's Black and Orange vs. Green and Yellow" hoopla) or like interleague play in general (other than a couple of matchups, they do spend way too many games on Interleague play during the year and matchups like Rockies-Orioles are a bit of a yawn). But it's nice to see the Bay Area neighbor in action and in a forum where you can watch both teams at once. I went to an A's-Giants game a couple of years ago at the Coliseum and I admit, the environment was pretty rabid as it was half-Giants fans and half-A's fans. You really don't get that kind of environment for a ballgame outside of the visiting big bandwagon teams (e.g. Yankees and Red Sox).

Anyways, in honor of the Giants-A's series which just ended, I'm going to take a look at six prospects in the A's system whom I find most interesting. The A's system isn't as deep as in years past due to graduations (Tyson Ross for example), trades, and some weird happenings (like Grant Desme, the AFL MVP in 2009 quitting baseball to join the priesthood...I can kind of relate on some issues, but novitiate/seminary life isn't all it's cracked up to be), it took a bit of a hit this year. (Baseball America ranked the A's 28th in their Talent Rankings and the Minor League Baseball Analyst in their 2011 annual ranked them 25th.)

Still, they have some interesting talent in their organization. Here are six guys you should most be aware of in the A's organization.



1. Grant Green, SS. (1st Round Draft Pick in 2009)

Green was the consensus top player in the A's system, ranking as the No. 1 A's prospect in BA and MLBA. The shortstop out of USC is coming off a fabulous year in the California League, as he hit .318 with 20 home runs, 87 RBI and an .883 OPS in 2010 with the Stockton Ports.

Green's hitting has been considered his strongest attribute according to scouts. Baseball America graded his batting a 60 and his power a 55, good grades considering his position (middle infield). Rob Gordon of the MLBA was also high on him as a hitter, grading as a 8B prospect and saying this about him in his writeup:

"Lean and athletic infielder who has very pure hitting instincts and abilities. Makes consistent, hard contact and will hit for BA with at least average pop, but can also shorten stroke in certain situations. Chases breaking balls early in count and batting eye needs work."

Gordon is onto something in terms of describing his plate approach. In his first full year of professional ball in 2010, Green drew only 38 walks and struck out 117 times, good for a BB/K ratio of 0.32. He still makes contact at a decent rate (0.79), but he is going to have to cut down on the strikeouts or draw more walks if he wants to have more value as a hitter as he moves up in the organization. Unfortunately for Green, even in college he didn't walk much (he had a walk rate of seven percent and nine percent his last two years at USC), so his plate approach is always going to be an issue for him unless he can cut down the K's.

Green's defense may be the weakest aspect of his game overall. Baseball America rated him a 45 in their scouting grade, and his arm also earned a 45 as well. There is heavy speculation that Green probably would make a transition to second base in the future, simply because his arm and defense may not be strong enough to play shortstop or third base. Statistically speaking, his numbers in Stockton weren't very spectacular, as he posted a fielding percentage of .920 and a RF/G of 3.75.

This year in the Texas League, there has been some improvement defensively (.952 fielding percentage; 4.16 RF/G), but as expected with the promotion, there has been a bit of regression offensively. He is currently hitting .282 with a .736 OPS and has two home runs and 24 RBI. The most glaring difference from a year ago is the lack of power (.107 ISO), but then again, he really didn't flash his big-fly potential until the second half last year, so he may just be a slow starter. He is walking a little bit more (his BB percentage is 8.0), but he is also striking out just as much as last year (24.4 percent), and thus, his BB/K ratio still looks pretty pedestrian (0.37). Nonetheless, despite this offensive regression from a year ago, Green is still a top prospect in the A's system and could be the heir-apparent at second base in a year or two in Oakland.



2. Michael Choice, OF. (1st Round Draft Pick in 2010)

Choice is the third-best prospect in the A's system according to Baseball America and the second-best A's prospect according to Rob Gordon of the MLBA. The rankings are well-deserved, as Choice is an athletic outfielder who is coming off a very impressive campaign in his first year of professional ball.

In 27 games, Choice tore up the Northwest League as he hit .284 with seven home runs and 26 RBI. Power was the strongest attribute of Choice's 2011 campaign, as he posted an OPS of 1.004, an ISO of .343, and an extra base hit percentage of 66 percent. While these numbers were posted over a short sample size (only 121 plate appearances), it still displayed the significant power upside Choice presents as a professional.

There were some concerns of course with Choice's tools. His contact rate was pretty subpar a year ago (58 percent) and it was a major concern his last year at Texas-Arlington (71 percent). Also, he struck out in bunches a year ago, as he had a strikeout percentage of 42.2 percent (yep, you read that right) and a BB/K ratio of 0.35. However, Choice has always been a patient hitter, as he posted a 0.60, 0.97, 1.41 in his three years at Texas-Arlington. Much like Chuckie Jones of the Giants, once Choice faces more professional pitching, it is likely that the strikeout rate will go down and the contact rate will go up.

He is off to a good year with the Stockton Ports of the California League, once again displaying the power he showcased in the Northwest League a year ago. His OPS is .841 and he has seven home and 28 RBI in 187 plate appearances. He is still striking out a lot (57 times, a 33 percent rate), but his batting eye has improved from a year ago (0.48 BB/K ratio).

Defensively, Gordon notes that despite Choice's athleticism, he projects more as a corner outfielder than centerfielder (his current position). He doesn't make many errors (.968 fielding percentage this year and last year), but he could be better at making plays (2.24 RF/G average the past two years). Without elite speed, and considering the dimensions of the Coliseum, it would probably be predictable that Choice will make the transition to the corners in the next couple of years.



3. Jemile Weeks, 2B (1st Round Draft Pick in 2008)

The younger brother of Major Leaguer Rickie Weeks, Weeks is an athletic infielder who has extremely enticing offensive upside for a second baseman. In his first year out of the University of Miami, Weeks tore up the California League in 232 plate appearances with the Ports. He hit .299 with an OPS of .847 and hit seven home runs, 31 RBI and stole five bases on six attempts. Weeks however struggled through injuries in 2010, as leg and hip injuries only limited him to 77 games in the Arizona League and Texas League. In his injury-plagued campaign a year ago, he still manage to hit .267 with a .752 OPS in 356 plate appearances.

This year, Weeks earned a promotion to Triple-A and has been an offensive catalyst for the Rivercats. He is hitting .309 with a .833 OPS and has two home runs, 16 RBI and seven stolen bases on 10 attempts. This year, Baseball America Ranked him as the fifth-best prospect in the A's system, and Gordon ranked him as the sixth-best A's prospect. Here is what Baseball America had to say about Weeks in their prospect handbook:

"When healthy, Weeks shows promising tools. He has a quick, explosive swing and can do damage from both sides of the plate. His strength and outstanding bat speed give him the capability to hit for more power than his body would suggest...He's not the smoothest second baseman, but he has worked hard to improve his throwing and double-play pivot. Weeks draws some Ray Durham comparisons and has the potential to be a top-of-the-order catalyst."

Considering the A's current offensive woes and Weeks' hot start in Sacramento, it wouldn't be surprising to see the athletic second baseman get a shot in the bigs at some point this year. He has the tools and ability to have a career in the Majors much like his older brother, Rickie.



4. Max Stassi, C (4th Round Draft Pick in 2009)

A fourth round pick in the 2009 draft, Stassi gained a lot of national attention when the A's signed the catcher out of Yuba City to a $1.5 million signing bonus (the highest for a fourth round pick at the time). Stassi presented a lot of interesting tools for a catcher, and he had youth on his side as he was coming out of high school.

In his first full year last year in Kane County in the Midwest League, Stassi struggled as a 19 year old at the plate, as he hit only .229 with a 684 OPS in 465 plate appearances. While he displayed good power for his position (13 home runs, 151 ISO) and drew walks (9.7 percent walk rate), he struggled in terms of making contact, as he struck out 34 percent of the time and sported a contact rate of only 66 percent and a BB/K ratio of 0.32.

Still, the power numbers were enticing for his age, and he earned a promotion to Stockton this year. Offensively, he hasn't fared much better against the better pitching, as he is hitting .231 with a .662 OPS. Stassi is suffering from a bit of bad luck (as his BABIP is .268) and his plate approach has improved a bit (0.72), as he has cut down the K's (18 percent strikeout rate) from a year ago. However, his power has declined dramatically (.099 ISO), and he has hidden behind the designated hitter role a majority of the year. Stassi isn't a terrible defensive catcher as Gordon noted that Stassi "owns quick hands and is a good receiver behind the dish." Thus, it is kind of concerning why Stassi hasn't played much time behind the dish this season in the California League.

Stassi is still an interesting prospect because of his position and youth. Baseball America ranked him as the A's sixth-best prospect and Gordon ranked him 10th in the A's organization. That being said, his offense needs some work and one has to wonder if the power he showed last year will re-manifest itself this year at some point this season. If it does, then Stassi could really rise as a prospect because his approach is much better at the plate from a year ago.


5. Fautino De Los Santos, RHP (Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2005 by the Chicago White Sox)

De Los Santos is a live-armed right handed pitcher who burst on the scene in 2007 at the Futures Game when he was hitting 97 MPH on the gun. However, that was just the tip of the iceberg, as de Los Santos put together an impressive campaign in 2007 in Winston Salem of the Chicago White Sox. He struck out 32 hitters in 23 innings pitched and posted an ERA of 3.72, a WHIP of 1.10 and an xERA of 3.17. His advanced numbers were the most impressive, as he posted a 11.9 K/9 and a K/BB ratio of 4.6. De Los Santos was a pitcher who could make batters miss and miss in bunches. The A's ended up trading for him after his 2007 campaign, as de Los Santos was involved in a deal (along with outfielder Ryan Sweeney) that sent fan favorite Nick Swisher to Chicago.

Baseball America was so high on him that they ranked him the 60th best prospect in baseball going into 2008. However, de Los Santos wasn't able to parlay his impressive 2008 campaign in the Carolina League to the California League. His BB/9 rate increased to 4.3 and though he still had a good a K/9 (10.3) and K/BB ratio (2.36), his other numbers weren't very impressive (5.87 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 5.96 xERA). What was even more concerning was the injury problems, as he made only five appearances in 2008 with the Ports and only seven starts in a Rookie League rehab stint in the Arizona Rookie League.

Finally healthy, de Los Santos had a solid year in 2010 in a split campaign in the California League and Texas League, making the transition from starter to reliever. With Stockton, he struck out 22 batters in 15 innings pitched, and sported an ERA of 2.37, a WHIP of 1.05, a xERA of 2.02, and an unbelievable K/BB ratio of 7.3 (compounded by a 13 K/9). Of course, it was his third year in High-A ball, but he remained solid in Midland, as he struck out 55 in 31 innings pitched and posted a K/BB ratio of 3.2. His ERA wasn't impressive at 6.63 and his WHIP was 1.51, but he suffered from a high BABIP (.350) and his xERA was more tolerable at 3.79.

The A's added him to the 40-man roster this year, and he has been good this year in Double-A and a recent promotion to Sacramento. He has pitched 15.1 IP, and he has struck out 21 batters while posting an ERA of 1.76 and a WHIP of 1.24. His walk rate is still a little high (4.7 BB/9 combined), but he has never had a K/9 rate lower than 10 in his minor league career. At the very least, de Los Santos has the upside of a strikeout specialist out of the bullpen.

Gordon had this to say about de Los Santos in his writeup:

"Never posted a K rate below 10 and keeps ball on ground when contact is made. Hard, sinking fastball thrown from whip-like arm action and has knockout slider."

De Los Santos may be a pitcher in the Santiago Casilla mold, whom the A's also developed in their system. While he may or may not make the jump to the Majors this year, he is one of the few interesting arms in the A's system (which is very weak, as the MLBA graded their pitching talent a D) and he would added much needed bullpen depth to a team that is heavily reliant on their pitching for overall success.


6. Yordy Cabrera, SS (Drafted in the Second Round of the 2010 Draft)

Cabrera is a prospect I had a lot of interest in when he was eligible for the draft last year. On my old blog Remember '51, I had hopes that the Giants would draft him in the first round. However, he slid to the second round, and the A's snatched him up and awarded him with a $1.25 million signing bonus.

Cabrera is a toolsy infielder out of Lakeland, Florida who showed a lot of promise in various showcases a year ago. He has good size and a sweet swing, though many people think he may be too big and not athletic enough to play shortstop full time at the Major League level. Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com had this to say in his scouting report about Cabrera leading up to draft day.

"Cabrera certainly looks the part of a ballplayer in terms of his build and how he carries himself on the baseball field. He's got the raw tools as well -- it's just a question of whether he'll learn to use them consistently. He's got plenty of power, but there is some concern about his ability to recognize pitches well enough to tap into that power. His days as a shortstop are likely numbered, with a move to third or an outfield corner in his future. His athleticism and upside will have many teams interested, and the team who believes it can tap into that will be the one to take him."

Cabrera made the move up to A-ball this year and he has been decent at the plate, as he is hitting .252 with a .737 OPS and has three home runs and 16 RBI in 113 plate appearances. He could still make better contact at the plate (70 percent contact rate this year) and he could cut the strikeouts down a little bit (31 in 103 AB) and flash a better eye at the plate (his BB/K ratio is 0.26). However, those things are to be expected for a kid just out high school.

His defense hasn't been that stellar at shortstop as expected (.908 fielding percentage, 4.19 RF/G), but he has shown some ability on the basepaths as he has nine stolen bases on 12 attempts. Overall, his year so far in the Midwest League has been a solid showing for his first full year in professional ball, though age isn't that big of a factor in his favor, as he was an older kid playing high school ball (he was 19 when he was drafted).

I like Cabrera and the tools he brings as a prospect. While Gordon didn't think too highly of him (he didn't rank him on the Top-15 prospect list for the A's), Baseball America did rank him as the 8th best prospect in the A's system. He is raw, but Cabrera does flash Hanley Ramirez potential with his hitting, power and ability on the basepaths (though defensively he may not be as good as Ramirez). If the A's remain patient with him, he could develop into the kind of prospect that will be on everyone's radar in a year or two. His upside is that promising.

OTF MLB Draft Peek: Jorge Lopez, RHP, and Hawtin Buchanan, RHP

Today I'm going to take a look at two possible supplemental round picks that could fall in the Giants slot. The Giants got the 49th pick in the Supplemental Round after Juan Uribe signed with the Dodgers this off-season. Again, we have some more pitchers, but as noted before this pitching is especially deep in young, high upside pitching, and the Giants have an obvious need to solidify their pitching depth in the minors (the Minor League Basbeall Analyst graded the Giants minor league pitching as a C- in their 2011 annual).



Jorge Lopez, RHP, Caguas Military Academy, Puerto Rico

John Sickels has Lopez projected to go at the 49th slot in his latest mock supplemental first round draft. Lopez is a high-ceiling arm, with a nice frame and good stuff according to reports. While Puerto Rican prospects usually don't have a history of going high in the draft (Luis Atilano was the highest pick from Puerto Rico in the history of the draft, as he went No. 35 in 2003), Lopez seems to be an exception to the rule.

According to a report by Perfect Game USA, Lopez is getting comparisons to Javier Vazquez. He still has a lot of room to develop as a pitcher (he's six-foot-four inches, and 175 pounds), but already he sports a fastball that goes in the low 90's and a good spinning curve ball that has gotten good reports from scouts. An excellent athlete (Lopez played volleyball, basketball and ran track in addition to baseball), Lopez used to be a shortstop before he converted to the mound full time.

Perfect Game noted on his player profile page these things about Lopez:

"Slender young build, should gain strength but not much weight. Slow paced low effort delivery, high 3/4's release point, pulls off some on release, very long and loose arm, good use of his lower half. Fastball to 91 mph, velo comes easy. Flashes hard curveball spin when on top of the ball, change up shows nice sink and should be thrown more. Very nice young pitching prospect who should keep improving."

Lopez was named a Rawlings 3rd Team All-American in 2011, and Diamondscape Scouting named him to the Second-Team All-Region team for the Southeast in January. Unlike a lot of high school prospects eligibile in this draft, there isn't a ton of video or scouting reports on Lopez, but he does sound like an enticing pitcher who has considerable upside as a prospect. While Lopez comes from an area of Puerto Rico that is known for developing positional talent (Cayey), Lopez is still an enticing prospect who has faced good competition and has been fostered in a solid baseball environment.

I wish there was more information on Lopez, because he has good tools for a pitcher. The Giants had some success with Jonathan Sanchez, another pitching prospect who came out of Puerto Rico, but Lopez is a bit more raw in comparison to Sanchez. Sanchez pitched in college in the United States before he entered the draft (he played at Ohio Dominican University), and even then, he was an under the radar prospect (he went in the 27th round of the 2004 draft).

Nonetheless, if Lopez can develop as a pitcher in the minors like Sanchez (or perhaps even better), then the Giants could get a steal in the supplemental round with the Puerto Rican right hander. He may take a little more time than Sanchez to break into the majors simply because of his age and where he is in the development stage, but Lopez seems to have the tools and stuff to succeed as a professional pitcher.


Hawtin Buchanan, RHP, Biloxi HS (Mississippi)



Buchanan is another young, raw, but projectable pitcher who could go in the supplemental round in the Giants slot. Buchanan has intriguing size (six-foot, eight inches, 240 pounds), but he is a very good athlete despite his big frame. He already is committed to Ole Miss, not just to play baseball, but to play quarterback for their football team as well.

His stuff is pretty electric as he sports a fastball that goes in the mid-low 90's and touches 95 MPH. However, according to Perfect Game, there are some issues with his mechanics, as he tends to drop his elbow on his curve ball and is slow on his chanegup. Nonetheless, PG was very optimistic about his improvement from 2010 to 2011

"When I saw Buchanan last year at the East Cobb Invitational tournament I was very impressed with his arm and overall strength and athleticism. But, his mechanics needed a lot of work. Over the offseason he put in that work and it has paid off. He’s increased his velocity by 5-7 MPH and has been up to 95. The 6’ 8” righty who is committed to Ole Miss has really been boosting his draft stock with big performances this season. In a big game against George County on March 10th, a game that drew a lot of interest from MLB scouts (as Buchanan opposed LHP Mason Robbins) Hawtin threw a complete game 3-hitter in Biloxi’s district opener and showed improved command of his secondary stuff."

There are a lot of positives when you watch Buchanan on tape. He has a straight, high leg kick that is very similar to Bronson Arroyo and Roy Oswalt. While I'm not sure he will develop into pitchers of that caliber, he still has tremendous uspide and stuff for a kid his age. The main concern with Buchanan might not be his tools as a pitcher, but whether or not he will sign if drafted. After all, he is committed to play football at Ole Miss, and if he is serious about playing football, he may not sign out of high school if drafted. This probably has lowered his draft stock, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Buchanan go lower in the draft because of this issue.

On talent alone though, there is no question that Buchanan is a supplemental round/second round pick. He was a second team All-Rawlings All-American in 2011, and he was also named to the All-Region first team for the Southeast. If the Giants can select him and get him to sign, then they'll have a nice prospect on their hands because his size and stuff are both a plus for his age. He will need some time to develop as a pitcher of course, since professional hitting will be a major step up over the competition he has currently faced (If you watch the tape, it's obvious he's head and shoulders above the hitters). Nonetheless, the Giants will have the patience to allow him to develop in the minors, simply because there isn't a need to rush him with the Major League rotation and bullpen set strongly at this point.

OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 16, Chuckie Jones, OF

The Giants sort of lucked out when it came to drafting Chuckie Jones in the 2010 draft. The St. Louis Cardinals were planning to draft the outfielder out of Boonville, Missouri in the 7th round. He was a local kid, and his role model happened to be Albert Pujols. However, the Giants swooped him up one pick earlier, and instead of going to college (he was committed to Maple Woods Community College in Missouri), he signed with the Giants.

Jones is an incredible athlete. He was a high school quarterback and played hoops, but it was obvious that baseball was the sport he was most focused on. Like many multiple high school sport athlete prospects though, Jones' baseball skills were really raw. While he had athleticism and obvious power, there were a lot of questions about his plate approach as well as his overall instincts for the game. Additionally, the fact that he wasn't more widely recruited to four-year colleges was also a question mark, since you think a college would give a shot to a kid with as much power and athleticism as Jones.

Despite the concerns though, he performed admirably in his debut season in the Arizona Rookie League. In 190 plate appearances, he hit five home runs, 47 RBI and posted a batting average of .279 and an OPS of .817 with an ISO of .182 and an extra-base hit percentage of 35 percent. He wasn't dominant of course by any means, as the concerns surrounding him when he was drafted were evident in Arizona. He struck out 61 times (a 37 percent rate) and he had a BB/K ratio of 0.33. Furthermore, defensively he showed some obvious flaws, as his RF/G was only 1.69 and he had a fielding percentage of .922 while playing mostly center field in the AZL.

Now, I know most people aren't impressed by his numbers in the AZL, and I wouldn't blame them. Matt Garroich of MLB Bonus Baby didn't exactly have the most sunny outlook about Jones as a prospect. The strikeout rate was surprisingly high, and his contact rate (63 percent) was also alarming as well, especially considering it was the AZL. That being said, I would compare Jones to Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp, who also came into the Gulf Coast League as a very raw, but athletic prospect. Here are the numbers Matt Kemp put up as an 18 year old in the GCL:

168 plate appearances, .270 average, .298 OBP, .346 Slugging, .644 OPS, .076 ISO, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 7 BB, 25 SO.

Now, Kemp is a better athlete and does have more speed and range as an outfielder than Jones. I don't think Jones could do what Kemp does in center field with the Dodgers. However, Kemp was a player with raw power, but didn't have the best plate approach. Granted, he did strike out a lower rate than Jones (16 percent), but his walk to strikeout ratio was very similar (0.28).

Jones already is off to a better start than Kemp when it comes to power (his ISO obviously shows that). Furthermore, Jones drew more walks than Kemp (who had only a 4 percent walk rate as a rookie), so Jones does have that advantage over the Dodger center fielder at this point. If Jones can hone his approach a little better and improve his strike zone recognition and batting eye (which is possible as he continues to face professional pitching), it isn't out of the question to think that Jones could bring an Kemp-like offensive upside to the Giants organization.

For those who think I might be reaching about the Kemp-comparison, here is what Baseball America said in their writeup on Jones:

"Jones doesn't bother to cut down his swing with two strikes, fanning 61 times, in 165 at-bats. But he also drew a team-high 20 walks, indicating he has some plate discipline. Despite his tender age, Jones is built like an NFL linebacker with above average throwing and running ability. He'll probably outgrow center field, but scouting director John Barr assumed the same things about Matt Kemp when he was with the Dodgers. He has enough arm strength to make right field a possibility."

Of course, this is all theory and Jones, who will begin the year in Salem-Keizer, will be challenged to adjust to better pitching as he moves up in the Giants system. Still, there is some excitement about Jones as a prospect. Baseball America ranked him as the 18th best prospect in the Giants system, and the Minor League Baseball Analyst for 2011 ranked him as the 12th best Giants prospect. You just can't discredit guys with good athleticism and power like Jones. He isn't an elite runner like some prospects who were multiple sport athletes in high school (Kemp, Carl Crawford, etc.), but he can steal a base efficiently (six stolen bases in eight attempts last year), which does heighten his value if he can continue to display this as he plays at higher levels in the minors.

Jones is as raw as it comes as a prospect, but he's extremely interesting because of his age, tools and upside. Furthermore, he's relatively under the radar, which is also intriguing because his career could go either way at this point. I'm not willing to consider him a major sleeper in the Giants system just yet (I want to see how he does in the Northwest League first), but if he can continue to display the skills he showed last year in Arizona this season in Salem-Keizer, then I wouldn't be surprised to see Jones really climb up the prospect rankings in 2012 and be on the Giants radar in a few years.

What Does the Future Hold for Angel Villalona?

I was reading a piece on Beyond the Box Score about Wily Mo Pena, and it got me thinking: who in the Giants system has or had the kind of raw power like Pena and came from a similar background? (e.g. signed when he was young, free swinger, well-sized, but athletic kid out of Latin America.)

The first player that came to mind was Angel Villalona.

Yes, the same Villalona that signed a then-club record $2.1 million signing bonus in 2006.

The same Villalona who was once a Top-50 prospect in all of baseball in 2008 and 2009, according to Baseball America.

And yep, the same Villalona who is currently accused of murdering a 25-year old man at a night club in the Dominican Republic on September 19, 2009.

The former "free-swinging" first base prospect is currently out of jail and on bail, and his defense team swayed the family of the victim drop charges against him, but Villalona's life is far from being back on track. First off, the prosecution is still following through on the case, even without the victim's family involved. Secondly, Villalona's visa was revoked after the murder, and it is murky in terms of when or even if Villalona will get another visa to come back stateside and play ball. And lastly, after serving some time in jail and undergoing this exhausting legal process, he hasn't played organized baseball since July of 2009, where a leg injury ended his season early in San Jose.

It's a shame that Villalona's professional career in the United States may be over before it ever started. He's only 20 years old, but he hasn't played in almost two years. While he has been practicing a little bit in the Dominican Republic (as evidenced by this video announcing his release from jail), he certainly hasn't faced the caliber of pitching or been in the kind of  practice schedule or environment he had been accustomed to the past couple of years.

A top prospect in the Giants system for a couple of seasons, Villalona was very much in the Wily Mo-mold: he had tremendous size, tools and pop, but he was a free swinger with poor strike zone judgment, who had to make strides in terms of improving his plate patience. In three seasons in the minors, Villalona's walk rate declined each season (from 6.7 percent in Arizona to 3.6 percent in Augusta to 2.9 percent in San Jose), as did his BB/K ratio (0.36 to 0.15 to 0.12). His power numbers weren't mind blowing in the AZL (five home runs, .160 ISO in 224 plate appearances) or the Sally (17 home runs, .172 ISO in 500 plate appearances), but considering he was only 17 and 18 years old at the time, many people saw the semblance of power a comforting sign since he was so young and his tools were so raw and undeveloped. With more exposure to minor league pitching, Giants fans and even management figured the power would start to come in bunches and the plate approach would improve as well, which would help him increase his batting average over time.

His San Jose campaign was disappointing though, as Villalona didn't show the improvement Giants fans and management expected. He only hit nine home runs, and his ISO fell to .130. Also, his walk rate at 2.9 percent was a career low (sans the five game stint in Salem Keizer in 2007 where he had zero strikeouts), and his 25 percent strikeout rate was just .4 points lower than the previous year. Yes, Villalona hit slightly better for average (.267; four points higher than 2008), but that was about the only improvement seen in Villalona's game in his transition from Augusta to San Jose. (To make matters worse, his .327 BABIP was 10 points higher than his Augusta BABIP, as the Cal League tend's to favor hitters.)

If Villalona could get this court issue resolved this year and somehow get a visa to get back in the United States as soon as next season, there might be some kind of future for Villalona in the Giants organization or at least in professional baseball. First off, at six-feet, three inches and 200 pounds (though he's probably closer to 220 from the last I've seen of him), he still has a lot of interesting tools, especially as a hitter. Remember, prior to the 2008 season, John Sickels ranked him as the No.1 prospect in the Giants system and graded him as a B+ prospect, and in 2009 he graded him as a B prospect and the 4th best prospect in the Giants system.

Of course, Sickels cut him some slack because he was a 17 year old playing in Single A (average hitter age is 21) and an 18 year old playing in High Single A (average hitters age is 22-23). He, and many other scouts and analysts (including MLB.com, which ranked him as the 48th best prospect going into 2009), excused his poor plate discipline because in their minds he was "still learning the game." (An understandable and valid argument by the way; to play and show as much power in Single A at an age where most American kids aren't even graduated out of high school yet is a testament to his pure talent.)

With two years of his career (at the soonest) lost though, Villalona doesn't have the youth to lean on anymore. And unfortunately for him, I don't think he is ever going to be able to develop and improve upon his plate patience issues (To put things in context, the average BB/K ratio for a hitter is around 0.50). If anything, he was a couple of years away from being decent in 2009. I can't imagine what the odds would be if he came back next year (and like I said, that's best case scenario for him).

In some sad way, Villalona is a classic case of a "prospect gone wrong." He came from a poor background from a rough part of the Dominican Republic where trouble has a tendency follow those with exuberant amounts of money. Perhaps he is just a target of those who want to partake in his wealth as he claims. But, we have seen this story with Latin American ballplayers before, with some turning out in favor of the player (in Juan Uribe's case) and some not (Ugueth Urbina).

If Villalona can get that visa, it'll be an interesting story. That being said, there will be boatloads of questions upon his arrival. Will his tools be as strong as they were when he signed as a 16 year old? How will his body type look? How has his athleticism been affected since being away from the game? What's his defense like? Can he still hit? Has his strike zone judgment improved in the time off? Or has it deteriorated even worse (if that's even remotely possible considering how poor it was to begin with)?

Of course, Giants fans and management just need to worry about Villalona coming back to the United States at all, and even that seems hard to believe. If he does find a way to the States and sees the field again in a Giants uniform, he'll have the chips stacked against him, that's for sure.

Villalona turning into a poor man's Wily Mo Pena would probably be an optimistic projection at this point.

OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 17, Kendry Flores, RHP

A 19-year-old right-hander from the Dominican Republic, Kendry Flores is the kind of raw, high-upside pitcher that could either boom or bust. Yes, we have seen nice success stories of high power, high ceiling arms like Santiago Casilla (though he was brought up in the Oakland A's system to be fair), but we have also seen burnouts like Waldis Joaquin and Denny Bautista. To use Ron Shandler and Rob Gordon's grading system (It is explained in their Minor League Baseball Analyst Annuals), I would sense that Flores would grade out anywhere from a 9E to an 8D prospect (the number represents the potential while the letter represents the probability of reaching that potential).

There is some hype surrounding Flores, though it's safe to say he's a pretty unknown commodity around baseball circles, not surprising considering he has only played one season in the United States (last year in the Arizona Rookie League). While John Sickels ranked him the 13th best prospect in the Giants system (he graded him as a C+ prospect), Baseball America overlooked him on their Top 30 Rankings for the Giants system in their 2011 prospect handbook (though to me, he's a better prospect than outfielder Darren Ford and catcher Johnny Monell). Even amongst the Giants blogosphere there are some mixed feelings about Flores' ceiling. SF Dugout, a Giants Online Magazine, ranked him as the 34th best prospect in the Giants system, while Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town had him as the 18th best Giants prospect.

Why such fluctuation? Well...he's incredibly young and we have such little statistical data to lean on in terms of evaluating him. Even if you include his Dominican Summer League numbers, he has just pitched 121 innings of professional ball and only 55 of those innings were seen stateside. Thus, Flores may be a good prospect with a high ceiling in the Jorge Bucardo-mold. He just isn't getting as much attention as Bucardo simply because what we have to evaluate Flores is such a small sample size.

But what do we do know about Flores? In terms of reports on mechanics and stuff...well...not that much. He does sport a nice frame that he will easily grow into (he's six-foot, two inches tall and weighs 175 pounds), and Dr. B notes that Flores "has fastball in the low-mid 90's with a pretty good changeup and a slurvy breaking ball." It is probably expected that some more scouting reports will surface once Flores debuts this season. As of now, he is in extended Spring Training and is probably going to start the year in the Northwest League with the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes. The Giants are definitely taking it slowly with him, which may not be a bad thing to do considering he is just 19 years old and has just two years of professional baseball experience (and only one year of AMERICAN professional baseball experience).

In terms of what he has done as a professional statistically, Flores has been stellar. As a 17-year-old in the DR, he made 13 starts and pitched 66 innings while striking out 57 batters. He showed decent control (3.8 BB/9) and command (2.38 K/BB ratio), but the best aspect of the game was that he induced groundballs (1.81 GB/FB ratio) and minimized the hits, as his hit rate was only 6.1 per nine innings in 2009.

In his first year in the states, his command and strikeout ability improved, though he did get batted around a little bit more in the Arizona Rookie League. Just 18-years-old in the AZL, he made 11 starts and two relief appearances and pitched 55 innings total for the season. In those 55 IP, Flores struck out 56 batters (a 9.2 K/9) and allowed only 13 walks (a 2.1 BB/9). His K/BB ratio was a very promising sign (4.31), as it was an almost two point improvement from his professional debut season in the DSL. That being said, the hits did go up a little as he sported a hit rate of 8.0 (a 1.9 increase from the DSL) and the groundball-flyball ratio did regress a little (1.27), but he did sport a high BABIP (.320), so you could argue that hitters got a little lucky on him in terms of finding balls for hits in the AZL.

Dr. B had a nice writeup on him and here's a nice paragraph that sums up what Flores has done as a professional so far in the past two years:

"I had Kendry Flores on my Dominican Dandies list last year after a fine 17 yo campaign in the DSL: 7-2, 2.18, 66 IP, 24 BB, 57 K, GO/AO- 1.85. He handled the advancement to the states with aplomb improving on his K/9 and BB/9 in the process. His last 10 games were especially sparkling: 5-2, 1.47, 43 IP, 6 BB, 41 K's. The first thing I look at in the stat lines of a young pitching prospect is K/9, but the second is BB/9. While Kendry's K/9 is certainly adequate, it's the great control for a kid so young that really jumps out at you."

I ranked Flores at No. 17 mainly because I'm intrigued by his potential. He has pitched pretty well for a young, starting pitcher in the DSL and AZL, but he has performed admirably in limited stints at very low levels. While the Northwest League isn't a major step up, it is still better competition nonetheless. Flores' stock as a prospect from here on out will probably ride on how well he adjusts to Northwest League hitters in 2011.

Additionally, I'm not sure if Flores will stay a starting pitcher. As with a lot of Latin American arms in the Giants system, there is a possibility that he may be transitioned to the pen in due time, much like Henry Sosa. However, there simply isn't enough information out there right now to make the assumption that the Giants are going to move him to the pen, so as for now I'm viewing him as a starting pitching prospect at this point.

The Northwest League begins on June 17th, as the Volcanoes will open the season on the road against the Spokane Indians (a team I'm fond of because I actually used to live in Spokane and I went to college at Gonzaga University). Right now, all Giants fans can hope for is that Flores is making the necessary strides  in extended Spring Training to get him ready for his stint in Salem-Keizer. He's an interesting pitcher, with some intriguing tools and a solid professional history so far, and hopefully, he'll continue to develop as a pitcher as he transitions to Short-Season ball.

Farm Watch: Grizzlies Swoon, Dynamic Duo Up the Middle, SJ Catcher Competition, and Augusta Roster Shakeup

It's mid-May, and it's getting close to the point where will be seeing other lower level affiliates (Salem-Kezier, AZL and DSL) starting hitting the field soon. In the meantime, let's take a review of how things have been going in the current Giants system since our last update.


Fresno Grizzlies, 19-21 going into May 18th.

• The Grizzlies have hit a bit of a snag as they have lost six of their past seven games on the road. The biggest problem during this road trip has been the bullpen. Steve Edlefsen has allowed seven hits and seven runs in his past three appearances (2.1) IP, and Marc Kroon is coming off a subpar performance against Nashville on May 13th where he allowed two hits and a run while not recording a single out. If the Grizzlies want to have any shot at making a run for the Pacific Coast League division title, they are going to need to get some improved contribution out of their bullpen.
• There has been a lot of roster turnover lately in Triple-A. Not only did Emmanuel Burriss and Ryan Rohlinger get "optioned to Fresno" (sorry, it is the name of the blog) last week, but the Grizzlies also welcomed former Giants cast-off relievers Waldis Joaquin and Geno Espineli in the past couple of weeks. Joaquin is an interesting arm, mainly because he was deemed a top prospect in the Giants system a couple of years ago. In an uninspired stint last year in San Francisco though, he struggled to strike batters out and eventually got designated for assignment to clear him off the 40-man roster. After not accepting a claim with the Chicago White Sox last year, he is back in Fresno and has pitched decently. In 10.1 IP, he has a 1.74 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a 1.78 GB rate. Unfortunately, much like last year, the strikeouts are down (only three strikeouts this year), so any shot of him returning to the majors at this point seems to be a stretch. As for Espineli, he had a rocky Grizzlies 2011 debut (0.2 IP, 1 R, 3 BB, 2 SO), but he bounced back to have a clean inning of work against Memphis two days ago (he retired the side in order). Giants fans should probably expect him to spend the majority of the year in Triple-A though.
• Brandon Belt continues to rake (as evidenced by his grand slam home run yesterday) and draw walks at an impressive rate (he has drawn 26 free passes in 104 plate appearances). That being said, his strikeouts are a bit of a concern, as he has whiffed out 21 times (a 28 percent rate). Having just subscribed to MiLB.tv for 30 bucks for the year, I have gotten the chance to see a lot of Belt's at-bats on tape. He definitely is patient at the plate, but he has swung and missed a lot, a bit concerning because he isn't exactly facing the best pitching in the PCL. His walks do make up for his high number of strikeouts (as evidenced by his 1.14 BB/K ratio), but not even John Bowker had a strikeout rate this high. With a callup looming for Belt soon (or at least we hope so), one has to wonder if the low contact rate (72 percent in Fresno this year, five points lower than his stint with the Giants) is a sign of things to come. That being said,  I'm still optimistic and high on Belt and what he can do at the Major League level, and this may just be a case of me being nitpicky.

 Richmond Flying Squirrels, 17-20 going into May 18th.

• There was a lot of question marks about Charlie Culberson and Nick Noonan going into 2011. Culberson had to prove in Richmond that he wasn't just a Cal League wonder (he had two sub-par years in Augusta prior to 2010), and Noonan had to not only bounce back from a mediocre 2010 campaign in the Eastern League, but injury as well. However, both have gotten off to solid starts offensively, and seem to be quite the duo up the middle for the Flying Squirrels (Noonan, traditionally a second baseman, is playing shortstop). Culberson is hitting a team high .299 and has a home run and 14 RBI to go along with four stolen bases and a .727 OPS in 167 plate appearances. Noonan leads the team in OPS at .741, and he has two home runs, 11 RBI, and seven doubles in 115 plate appearances this year. Culberson still is a bit of a free swinger at the plate (34 strikeouts, 0.21 BB/K ratio), but he is only 22 years old and in his first year in the Eastern League. As for Noonan, his biggest improvement has not only been the increase in pop from a year ago (he had a .304 slugging last year; this seasons it's .396), but his more patient approach at the dish. Already, in almost 300 less plate appearances, he has half as many walks (11) as last year (22), and his BB/K ratio (0.46)  is a vast improvement from a season ago (0.30).
• One of the more interesting stories in Richmond right now has to be Juan Perez. Rated as the 24th best prospect in the Giants system according to Baseball America, Perez is around league average age-wise, but has had a very rocky path to professional ball. Originally from the Dominican Republic, Perez moved to the United States in 2001, but wasn't drafted out of high school. Instead of going to college, he ended up doing an apprenticeship for his father's plumbing company while playing in Adult Baseball night leagues. The impressive showings in the rec-league contests got him some attention from junior colleges, and he committed to Western Oklahoma JC, where he set the DII National JuCo record for home runs (37) and RBI (102) in 2008. Impressed by his gaudy JuCO numbers, the Giants selected Perez in the 13th round. Now, Perez isn't tearing up the Eastern League by any means (he is batting .264 with a .673 OPS, but he does have eight stolen bases on nine attempts). Still, he does have an interesting toolset (Baseball America said that his defense in center field was so good last year in San Jose, that it bumped Francisco Peguero to right field) and his "Sugar"-esque tale would be a great success story for the Giants organization.
• One of the more impressive bullpen arms in Richmond has been left-hander David Quinowski. A bit older for the Eastern League (he's 25), Quinowski has put together a solid campaign this year for the Flying Squirrels out of the pen. He has a 1.61 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 22.1 innings of work, and limited his walks (only 3 non-intentional walks allowed) while displaying excellent command (5.00 K/BB ratio). A 46th round pick in the 2005 draft out of high school, Quinowski's MLB upside may be simply as a LOOGY (left-handers only guy). That being said, with Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez going to be free agents next year, Quinowski could be a dark-horse to break into the Giants bullpen as early as next year if he maintains this good display in Richmond.

San Jose Giants,  25-14 going into May 18th.

• Gary Brown is due for a callup. He's absolutely annihilating Cal League pitching, and it's looking like he doesn't have much to prove in San Jose. He is hitting .374 with a .968 OPS and has three home runs, two triples, 11 doubles and 23 stolen bases in 38 games and 190 plate appearances. The only question now is when (not if) the Giants are going to promote him to Richmond. I think the Giants would probably wait until June to pull the trigger on such a move, just not to rush him. Nonetheless, Brown is head and shoulders above the competition in the California League in 2011 and is suddenly one of the hottest prospects out there right now.
• The catcher's competition between Hector Sanchez and Tommy Joseph has been an interesting subplot this year in San Jose. Joseph, a second round pick a year ago, was known for his tremendous power (16 home runs, 68 RBI in 2010 in Augusta), but lack of plate discipline (116 strikeouts in 436 AB). The same has proved to be true this year, as Joseph has four home runs and 20 RBI, but is hitting for a low average (.223), not walking (only seven walks in 162 plate appearances) and striking out a lot (30 strikeouts; though his 20.2 percent rate is lower than the 26.6 percent rate a year ago). As for Sanchez, he has proved to be better defensively (his success rate in throwing guys out is 48 percent, while Joseph's is 34 percent) and he is hitting better for average than Joseph as well (Sanchez's batting average is .282). To make matters worse for Joseph, Sanchez has actually been showing just as much power, if not more, as Sanchez has four home runs, 26 RBI, a slugging of .470 and an OPS of .771. Joseph is still young of course (he's only 19 years old) and I think the Giants have a lot more invested in the slugger from Arizona than the catcher from Venezuela. That being said, if Joseph doesn't show progress soon, he may be in jeopardy of losing playing time or getting a demotion to the Sally to figure things out and get his confidence up.
• Bay Area kid and former Cleveland Indians prospect Chuck Lofgren made his Giants organizational debut against Lancaster, as he went two innings and struck out two while earning the save in the Giants' 5-2 win on May 11th. Lofgren was a top prospect with the Indians, as he was ranked No. 54 in Baseball America's Top-100 rankings going into 2007 and No. 71 going into 2008. However, his last two campaigns in Triple-A have been far from stellar, as he posted an ERA of 5.31 with Columbus and 5.19 with Nashville (Milwaukee). He signed with the Giants as a free agent after being non-tendered by the Brewers this off-season. It is expected that his stint will be short in San Jose, and he'll probably find a spot in the Grizzlies' bullpen soon.

 Augusta Green Jackets, 16-23 going into May 18th.

• The No. 28 prospects in the "OTF Most Interesting 32 Prospects" list have gotten off to good starts so far in the Sally. Carlos Willoughby has been a stout option at leadoff, as he is hitting .295 with a .752 OPS and has 14 stolen bases on 17 attempts. Willoughby hasn't shed his "slap-hitter" label (his slugging is only .362), but he has been the Green Jackets' best hitter during this first couple months of play. As for Rafael Rodriguez, while he is young for the league, he has been holding his own, a nice sign after a disappointing campaign in the Northwest League last year. He is hitting .281 with a homer and 12 RBI. His OPS isn't great (.681) and he could still draw more walks (only six in a 129 plate appearances). That being said, he isn't striking out either (only 17 strikeouts) and he is showing more power as of late (he hit his first home run a couple of days ago). At 18 years old, it seems like Rodriguez's career is back on track after that down year in Salem-Keizer in 2010.
• Augusta made some wholesale changes as they sent a few players to extended Spring Training, most notably shortstop Ydwin Villegas and catcher Dan Burkhart. While touted pitching prospect Mike Kickham made his 2011 debut, the biggest additions to the Green Jackets were Brett Bochy and Ehire Adrianza. Bochy is the son of Giants Manager Bruce Bochy and pitched well in his first appearance of the year on May 15th. He threw two innings and struck out one and allowed only one hit. As for Adrianza, he has flashed some power after coming off the disabled list to start off the season. He has four hits, including a double and a home run, as well as five walks in 20 plate appearances this year. Adrianza most likely will make the jump up to San Jose or Richmond soon considering he played all last season in the California League.
• Though Shawn Sanford's numbers aren't terrible by any stretch of the imagination, his declining strikeout rate the past three seasons has been somewhat alarming. After being drafted in the 13th round by the Giants in the 2008 draft out of South Florida, Sanford was hittable in 20.1 innings of work in the Arizona Rookie League (he allowed 26 hits). However, he struck guys out (31 strikeouts) and displayed good command (3.88 K/BB ratio) in his first professional season, which gave hope that he could be somewhat of a sleeper. Last year, in Salem Keizer, Sanford's ERA went down (from 5.31 to 2.14), but so did his K/BB ratio (2.86) and strikeout rate (8.6) over double the workload of a year ago (40.2 IP). So far this season, he's almost pitched as many innings in the first two months (40 IP) as he did all of last year, and yet his strikeout rate is less than half (3.8) of what it was in the Northwest League. Sanford presents a nice ERA (2.92), but he has a mediocre K/BB ratio (1.89) and is benefiting from a slightly below average BABIP (.294). His ability to induce groundballs at a decent rate may help him maintain his current start (his GB rate is 1.53), but chances are he is probably due for a reality check soon, even if the Sally is a pitcher's league.