Season Preview: Augusta Green Jackets

With Opening Day happening across the Minor League yesterday, I figured it would be good to take a look at what Giants fans could expect from the teams in the Giants organization. I'm going to start with the lower levels first and move my way up. Since the Arizona Rookie League, the Northwest League and Dominican Summer League don't start until later in the season, I'm going to start with the Giants' Sally team, the Augusta Green Jackets.


2011 Recap:

It was a tale of two seasons for the Green Jackets, as they got off to a slow start in 2011. They finished the first half 31-39, good for fifth place in the Southern Division. However, a couple of roster moves and some better play sparked them in the second half, as they finished with the best record in the Southern Division after the break at 39-29. While they still finished behind the Savannah Sand Gants (the Mets organization) in the overall standings, the 70-68 record was still a promising end for a team that had its share of struggles in the beginning of the year.

The Green Jackets relied on their pitching as they finished sixth best in the league in runs allowed per game at 4.43 and fourth in ERA at 3.70. Shawn Sanford, Stan Rogers and Mike Kickham provided good production at the top of the rotation, as they each threw over 100 innings and posted ERA numbers of 2.55, 2.91, and 4.11, respectively. Seth Rosin proved to be an excellent spot starter for the Green Jackets, as he struck out 93 batters in 89 innings pitched while posting an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.25. The bullpen also got a bounce back season from Edward Concepcion, who struck out 62 batters in 52.1 IP. While Concepcion still sports control issues (his K/BB ratio was 1.72), the performance was a nice sign for a prospect whose stock took a serious drop in 2010.

Offensively, Augusta struggled to score runs, as they finished fifth-worst in the Sally in runs scored per game at 4.43 and fourth-worst in OPS at .693. Despite the lackluster team showing, the Green Jackets did have some position players who made solid contributions during the 2011 season.

Though overshadowed by Chris Dominguez since college (they both were third basemen from the University of Louisville), Adam Duvall had a breakout year, posting a .285/.385/.527 slash with a team leading .917 OPS and 22 home runs. Outfielder Ryan Lollis also had a solid 80-game stint before he made the move to San Jose, as he posted a slash of .314/.393/.422 with an OPS of .816. While he struggled at the end of the year to post a pedestrian .650 OPS, Carlos Willoughby was a catalyst for the most part at the top of the order, as he showed a patient approach at the plate (.343 OBP, 0.73 BB/K ratio) and some speed on the basepaths (a team-high 33 stolen bases). Though he is repeating the year in Augusta, Willoughby is somebody to keep an eye on, especially to start the year.




Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for at the Plate?

The outfield will be intriguing as Chuckie Jones, Brett Krill and Shawn Payne will look to be the regular starting outfield during the 2012 season. Jones is a super-athlete with plus power, arm strength and speed tools (a lot of scouts have made Matt Kemp comparisons because of his background), but he has struggled to make contact over the course of his Minor League career (61 percent contact rate in Salem Keizer a year ago). Krill was a low-round pick in the Giants' 2010 Draft (25th round), but he is coming off a sensational campaign with the Volcanoes where he put up a slash of .304/.350/.488 along with six home runs and four stolen bases in 226 plate appearances. Payne is a toolsy-outfielder who has "Fred Lewis" potential, as he sports a patient approach at the plate, and good speed and instincts on the basepaths (though he doesn't sport a lot of raw power, as he hit no home runs a year ago).  Payne put up a slash of .306/.431/.394 and stole 21 bases on 27 attempts in 195 plate appearances in the NWL last year.

In addition to Willoughby, shortstop Kelby Tomlinson will be an infielder to watch out for this year in Augusta. Baseball America rated Tomlinson with the best speed tool set and the best athleticism out of any Giants draft pick in the 2011 draft (the Giants selected him in the 12th round). Tomlinson however is not just all tools, as he roped pitching in the Arizona Rookie League last year. He posted a slash of .357/.417/.543 in 156 plate appearances. While he doesn't sport "home run power", Tomlinson has showed a strong ability to stretch out hits, as he hit 10 doubles, 5 triples and two home runs in the AZL. He does have to improve his concentration in the field if he wants to continue to stick at shortstop (10 errors, .924 fielding percentage last year), but scouts note that he has the tools and potential to be an above-average defensive shortstop as he moves up the system.



Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for on the Mound?

The strength of the Green Jackets' roster is in the rotation, as there will be many arms to watch out for in Augusta in 2012. The roster is filled with projectable, high-ceiling arms who not only could be impact prospects in the Giants system, but could help make this Green Jackets team competitive in the Sally Southern conference.

In terms of starting pitching, Clayton Blackburn, Kyle Crick and Adalberto Mejia will anchor the top of the rotation. Blackburn started on Opening Day for the Jackets and performed well as he struck out six and walked zero while allowing four hits in 4.2 innings pitched. Blackburn is a big (six-foot, three-inches, 220 pounds) powerful arm that showed impeccable command in the Arizona Rookie League as an 18 year old. Crick also shares a similar profile to Blackburn, as he is a powerful prep arm out of Texas who was the Giants' supplemental round pick in the 2011 draft. Crick has more control and command issues than Blackburn at this point in his career (he walked eight and allowed nine hits in seven innings pitched in the Arizona Rookie League last year), but he is only 19 years old, was rated more highly by scouts than Blackburn out of high school, and still has a lot of time for development on the mound.

Mejia is a big surprise to make the Green Jackets roster, as many figured Joan Gregorio would be starting the year in Augusta instead of Mejia. However, though this is Mejia's first exposure Stateside, he was absolutely dominant in the Dominican Summer League in 2011. He struck out 71 and walked only eight batters in 76 innings pitched, and he finished the year with the DSL Giants with a 5-2 record and 1.42 ERA. It'll be interesting to see how Mejia fares in the Sally as a raw 18-year-old (he'll turn 19 in June) out of the Dominican, but he has the size (six-foot, three-inches and 195 pounds) and skills to project as a good starting pitching prospect not only this year, but for years to come.

Some sleepers in the Giants' pitching rotation are Demondre Arnold, Bryce Bandilla and Chris Marlowe, all picks in the Giants' 2011 draft. Arnold is a raw right hander out of junior college, but scouts have noted his impressive stuff and his strong performance last year in the Arizona Rookie League bullpen. In 26.2 IP, Arnold struck out 32 batters, allowed 16 hits and 8 walks as a nineteen year old. While he is expected to be in the Green Jackets bullpen, his excellent command and strikeout ability should make him a solid late innings option for the Green Jackets in 2012.

Bandilla and Marlowe are college prospects who come out of Arizona and Oklahoma State, respectively. While control has been an issue for them in their college careers, they have excellent stuff and strikeout potential, and could be fast risers in the Giants system, especially if they stay in the pen. Marlowe could compete for the setup or closer's position with Arnold, while Bandilla could be the first left-handed pitcher out of the pen in the late innings. While they didn't get much playing time after signing (Bandilla didn't play while Marlowe threw only three innings in the AZL; he did strike out five in three innings of work though), they do offer some upside and will be interesting arms to watch. If they do well, don't be surprised to see a second half promotion for both of these guys in the second half of the year.



What Should We Expect from the Green Jackets in 2012?

The Green Jackets have a solid pitching staff that could carry them, especially in the beginning of the year. While the offense has some interesting players with strong tools (Jones, especially), I would be surprised to see the Green Jackets surpass their offensive production from a year ago, especially with their main run producer, Duvall, now playing in San Jose. However, if Willoughby can have a year that was more similar to his first half and not his second half, than the Green Jackets might be able to muster enough offense, especially with a pitching staff that sports so much potential. I don't know if Augusta will be able to compete for a Sally title, but they certainly have the potential to be a dark horse, especially if guys like Jones and Tomlinson can back up their prospect hype with solid seasons at the plate in the Sally.

OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 16, Chuckie Jones, OF

The Giants sort of lucked out when it came to drafting Chuckie Jones in the 2010 draft. The St. Louis Cardinals were planning to draft the outfielder out of Boonville, Missouri in the 7th round. He was a local kid, and his role model happened to be Albert Pujols. However, the Giants swooped him up one pick earlier, and instead of going to college (he was committed to Maple Woods Community College in Missouri), he signed with the Giants.

Jones is an incredible athlete. He was a high school quarterback and played hoops, but it was obvious that baseball was the sport he was most focused on. Like many multiple high school sport athlete prospects though, Jones' baseball skills were really raw. While he had athleticism and obvious power, there were a lot of questions about his plate approach as well as his overall instincts for the game. Additionally, the fact that he wasn't more widely recruited to four-year colleges was also a question mark, since you think a college would give a shot to a kid with as much power and athleticism as Jones.

Despite the concerns though, he performed admirably in his debut season in the Arizona Rookie League. In 190 plate appearances, he hit five home runs, 47 RBI and posted a batting average of .279 and an OPS of .817 with an ISO of .182 and an extra-base hit percentage of 35 percent. He wasn't dominant of course by any means, as the concerns surrounding him when he was drafted were evident in Arizona. He struck out 61 times (a 37 percent rate) and he had a BB/K ratio of 0.33. Furthermore, defensively he showed some obvious flaws, as his RF/G was only 1.69 and he had a fielding percentage of .922 while playing mostly center field in the AZL.

Now, I know most people aren't impressed by his numbers in the AZL, and I wouldn't blame them. Matt Garroich of MLB Bonus Baby didn't exactly have the most sunny outlook about Jones as a prospect. The strikeout rate was surprisingly high, and his contact rate (63 percent) was also alarming as well, especially considering it was the AZL. That being said, I would compare Jones to Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp, who also came into the Gulf Coast League as a very raw, but athletic prospect. Here are the numbers Matt Kemp put up as an 18 year old in the GCL:

168 plate appearances, .270 average, .298 OBP, .346 Slugging, .644 OPS, .076 ISO, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 7 BB, 25 SO.

Now, Kemp is a better athlete and does have more speed and range as an outfielder than Jones. I don't think Jones could do what Kemp does in center field with the Dodgers. However, Kemp was a player with raw power, but didn't have the best plate approach. Granted, he did strike out a lower rate than Jones (16 percent), but his walk to strikeout ratio was very similar (0.28).

Jones already is off to a better start than Kemp when it comes to power (his ISO obviously shows that). Furthermore, Jones drew more walks than Kemp (who had only a 4 percent walk rate as a rookie), so Jones does have that advantage over the Dodger center fielder at this point. If Jones can hone his approach a little better and improve his strike zone recognition and batting eye (which is possible as he continues to face professional pitching), it isn't out of the question to think that Jones could bring an Kemp-like offensive upside to the Giants organization.

For those who think I might be reaching about the Kemp-comparison, here is what Baseball America said in their writeup on Jones:

"Jones doesn't bother to cut down his swing with two strikes, fanning 61 times, in 165 at-bats. But he also drew a team-high 20 walks, indicating he has some plate discipline. Despite his tender age, Jones is built like an NFL linebacker with above average throwing and running ability. He'll probably outgrow center field, but scouting director John Barr assumed the same things about Matt Kemp when he was with the Dodgers. He has enough arm strength to make right field a possibility."

Of course, this is all theory and Jones, who will begin the year in Salem-Keizer, will be challenged to adjust to better pitching as he moves up in the Giants system. Still, there is some excitement about Jones as a prospect. Baseball America ranked him as the 18th best prospect in the Giants system, and the Minor League Baseball Analyst for 2011 ranked him as the 12th best Giants prospect. You just can't discredit guys with good athleticism and power like Jones. He isn't an elite runner like some prospects who were multiple sport athletes in high school (Kemp, Carl Crawford, etc.), but he can steal a base efficiently (six stolen bases in eight attempts last year), which does heighten his value if he can continue to display this as he plays at higher levels in the minors.

Jones is as raw as it comes as a prospect, but he's extremely interesting because of his age, tools and upside. Furthermore, he's relatively under the radar, which is also intriguing because his career could go either way at this point. I'm not willing to consider him a major sleeper in the Giants system just yet (I want to see how he does in the Northwest League first), but if he can continue to display the skills he showed last year in Arizona this season in Salem-Keizer, then I wouldn't be surprised to see Jones really climb up the prospect rankings in 2012 and be on the Giants radar in a few years.