Minor League Park Factors, League Run Environments and Evaluating Giants Players' Stats Part I: Fresno and the PCL

When it comes to evaluating the stats of minor league players, that can be a heated and touchy debate. Many people like to use numbers to project a players' chances of success at the Major League level, and there isn't anything wrong with doing that as long as you know which stats are important and ones that should be taken with a grain of salt. For example, John Bowker absolutely tore it up in the Pacific Coast League. However, as any Giants fan will tell you, Bowker's minor league success never really translated to the Major League level.

So what should Giants fans do in terms of determining whether Giants minor league player stats are for real or not? Well, two things should be kept in mind:

1.) Which leagues and levels tend to favor the hitters and which ones tend to favor pitchers?
2.) Which parks are hitter's parks and which ones are pitcher's parks?

Therefore, I wanted to take a look at each level and each park and see the park factors of each ballpark and run environments of each league in the Giants system. Of course, these numbers aren't sure fire. You still have to keep in consideration the plate approach of certain players (hitters with good BB/K ratios and pitchers with good K/BB ratios can overcome certain parks for example). That being said, I think looking at the park factors and run environments can be a telling sign of which players are having true success that can translate to the Major League level and which ones may struggle as they advance through the system or in the Majors.

Because of the length of this post, I decided to split it up into multiple parts. In this first part, I'm going to look at the Fresno Grizzlies, Chukchansi Park and the Pacific Coast League (and how it stacks against the International League), and what we should be looking for when it comes to evaluating Grizzlies players' numbers.

(For the record, I got the statistical information from Baseball Think Factory and The Hardball Times.)


Three-year weighted Park factors for Chukchnasi Park: 0.97 Run factor, 0.98 Hit factor, 0.93 Double factor, 1.13 Home Run factor, 0.98 Walk factor, 0.98 Strikeout factor.

Run environments for the Pacific Coast League (2007-2009): 5.1 runs per game, 5.0 base runs per game (base runs = baserunners * basesrunner scoring rate * home runs), 2.5 home run percentage, 8.5 walk percentage, 2.1 error percentage, 7.9 stolen base attempt rate (SBA/OPP).

Surprisingly, the run factor is actually below average at Chukchansi Park, which would suggest it's a pitcher's park. However, the home run factor at 1.13 is one of the highest factors in Triple-A. How is this so? Well, just judging by the dimensions of Chukchansi Park, it's not exactly a cavernous yard. So, while home runs may go out easier than most "average" Triple-A parks, other extra base hits are going to be harder to come by because of the smaller dimensions (hence the 0.95 double factor, which is below the 1.00 average).

In terms of the run environments of the Pacific Coast League, this really shouldn't be too much of a surprise. Since it's the last step for a player before he hits the Majors, the numbers are closer to what you would see in the National and American League rather than other leagues (mainly because players are more skilled, with most having some Major League experience). However, the PCL is a bit more of a hitter's league than it's counterpart, the International League, which tends to be more of a pitcher's league and favors "small ball."

To compare, the R/G average in the PCL was 5.1 and the BsR/G was 5.0, and the HR percentage was 2.5 and the stolen base attempt rate 7.9 from 2007-2009. In the International League, R/G and BsR/G was 4.4 and the HR percentage was a lot lower at 2.1. The biggest upgrade though came in stolen bases, as the SBA percentage was 9.5 percent, a 1.6 difference from the PCL.

There are a variety of factors in the differences between the International League and the PCL. Probably the biggest factor to the difference is the fact that the PCL is mostly situated in the West Coast and western part of the Midwest, where the weather is a lot drier. Weather and humidity factors aren't going to keep the ball in the park like in some parks in the Southeartern or Northeastern parts of the United States (where most clubs in the IL are located). Another big factor is the fact that the clubs with affiliates in the Pacific Coast League simply have more talent in Triple-A than the International League (the IL is lower than PCL in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging). It makes sense though, as most International League teams spend a ton of money on free agents to make up their roster and have most of their talent in the lower minors (like the Mets, Yankees and Red Sox) . There are some exceptions to the rules (Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Atlanta for example), but the PCL has more teams that rely on their own talent to stock their Major League rosters, and hence, there is going to be deeper talent at Triple-A (because guys are going to go up and down all the time).


What Does this Mean for Grizzlies Players?

I think you have to take a couple of things into consideration when evaluating talent on the Fresno roster: age is huge and hitting stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. In terms of the first point, it's one thing for a guy to dominate in Fresno, but guys in their late 20's or early thirties really are more four-A players rather than legitimate prospects. If you play long enough in the minors or the PCL, you're going to do well. That's a given. But can they do well at the Major League level? If they have been in the minors long enough, then there is probably some serious flaws in their game that prevents them from sticking to the 25-man roster, which just goes to show that stats can't be the sole component to evaluating a Grizzlies player.

In terms of point two, hitter's are going to have an advantage in the PCL because of the park factors and the fact that most pitchers in Triple-A are of the "four-A" mold. Just look at the Grizzlies rotation and you'll see that none of those guys are "elite" prospects by any measure. Most "elite" pitching prospects tend to bypass Triple-A all together and make the jump from Double-A to the Majors, so while the pitching in Triple-A isn't terrible, it isn't exactly stellar either. With these factors favoring hitters, offensive stats for Grizzlies (and most PCL) players are going to be inflated by some measure.

When looking at a Grizzlies offensive players, I would put less weight in stats like slugging and average and more salt into numbers like OBP and BB/K ratio. Because of the nature of Chukchansi, home runs are going to fly easier for hitters than they would at AT&T Park (simply because of the dimensions and weather factors), so to think power is going to "absolutely" translate from the PCL to the MLB level is usually unlikely (though the good hitters will translate it, but they also hit at other levels as well; guys who don't show power or consistency with their power until Triple-A are usually the ones you throw red flags at).

As for plate approach though, that is something that translates a little better. Do guys work the count and get on-base or are they wild swingers who don't walk much? And how much do they strike out? If they are striking out a lot in the PCL, how is that going to translate to the National League? It probably won't turn out good for that player when they get to the Giants roster. (Unless they are high walk guys as well, but even then, that's not a guarantee as some, like Bowker, didn't transition their impressive walk numbers to the Giants, but still flashed the same strikeout problems.)

When it comes to looking at Grizzlies players, yes the home runs and RBI and batting average numbers can be tempting, but it's important to not get too fooled by that. Like I said, while it could be a sign of a guy continuing to showcase power as they transition level to level, guys who suddenly have power outbursts in the PCL after not showing such skills in Double-A and lower are probably benefiting more from the League and Park rather than actually developing skills.

As for pitchers, most of the pitchers in Triple-A don't have much ceiling simply because most good pitching prospects spend little to no time in Triple-A (unless they are working some things out). If you are going to look at a pitcher, looking at strikeouts and K/BB ratio is probably the most important indicator of how they will perform at the Major League level. For the most part, guys who strike out a lot of batters, minimize balls in play and minimize their walks are the ones that succeed the most in the PCL (mainly because it's such a hitter's league and most BABIP numbers for pitchers are higher than the .300 average). Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of Grizzlies pitchers (or PCL pitchers in general) who sport these qualities, and the ones that do don't seem to stay in the PCL very long.

The reason? They are good pitchers and good pitchers make it to the Majors. They don't stick in Triple-A.

Marc Kroon: Apparently the Nicest Guy in the Giants System

If you're a Giant or Grizzlies or Minor League baseball fan in general and are not following Marc Kroon yet on Twitter, well...you REALLY should start doing so for two reasons:

1.) He's a nice guy and probably responds directly to his tweeps more often than your usual "athlete" on twitter.
2.) He is hooking fans up with free tickets to Fresno Grizzlies games, not just at Chukchansi Park, but wherever the Grizzlies play.

Talk about a nice guy. You're not seeing really any other player with a Twitter profile be this generous (and not only in the Giants minor league system, but in all of minor league baseball in general).

But who is Marc Kroon, anyways?

The San Francisco Chronicle had a nice story on him in January when he was signed to a Minor League contract. Though he didn't make the team out of Spring Training, Kroon currently is on the Grizzlies roster and holding his own. In 6.2 IP, he has 9 strikeouts, a WHIP of 1.95 and an ERA of 2.70. While you would like him to control his walk numbers a little bit (he has five walks so far this year), Kroon can strike guys out, and that is a good quality to have as a reliever.

Kroon isn't exactly a young player (he's actually 38 years old) and he has spent most of his career in the minors and in Japan (though he was a top prospect coming out of High School, as he was drafted in the 2nd round of the 1991 draft by the New York Mets). In Japan though, not only did he play for the Yomiuri Giants (Love his picture with Mariah BTW!), but he was one of the more dominant closers in the Far East, known for his blazing fastball (clocked at 101 MPH three years ago), and ability to make hitters whiff. In his four seasons in Japan from 2007-2010 (he played with Yokohama in 2007 and Yomiuri from 2008-2010...remember, in the Nippon Baseball League, all the teams are known by their sponsors, not their city), he posted K/9 rates of 13.8, 13.4, 10.3 and 13. His high K/9 rate, and good K/BB ratios (he never had a K/BB ratio under 2.52 in the NPB), made him ideal for the ninth inning as a closer. He saved 31 games with the Bay Stars in 2007 and 93 games total in his three seasons with the Giants.

Despite being a fan favorite in Japan, (he's got his own Web site that mostly caters to Japanese fans), he came back to the states looking for a second chance in the Majors (the last time he played in the Big Leagues was in 2004 with the Colorado Rockies). Considering the Giants organization hasn't hesitated to give relievers second chances in the past (and it has paid off), Kroon will have an opportunity to succeed, despite starting the year in Fresno. Additionally, his unique pitching style and motion could give some hitters fits in the Pacific Coast League and perhaps Major League level. (Many Japanese pitchers' styles do, especially initially, and despite being from the States, Kroon has seemingly adopted a more Japanese-style pitching motion, with a slight pause in the windup.)

Of course, Kroon isn't a slam dunk by any stretch just yet. Throughout his professional career, walks have been an issue (he has a career 5.1 BB/9 rate and 6.0 BB/9 rate in Triple-A). While he seemed to pan out the issues his first few years in Japan (his BB/9 was 3.2, 4.0 and 3.4 his first three seasons), his BB/9 numbers increased to 5.2 his last season with Yomiuri (which lowered his K/BB ratio under 3 for the first time in his Japanese career). The control issues haven't gotten any better either since coming to the states, as his five walks in 6.2 IP have produced a BB/9 rate of 6.8. While that is just a small sample, and Kroon has plenty of time to lower that rate, it certainly doesn't prove that his walk issues from his past are a thing of the past (at least initially).

The story with Kroon's career is a fascinating one, and in many ways, a lot of baseball fans are hoping for Kroon to succeed. Even just following him on Twitter, Kroon seems to be an upbeat, cordial and positive person who is a breath of fresh air. And not only is he a good person, but he seems to be a decent pitcher with an above average fastball and above average ability to strike batters out. Will he get to showcase those traits as a Giant? It's too early to call and a lot of chips will have to fall in the right place (ineffectiveness to relievers in the Giants bullpen, somebody being DFA'd to make room for Kroon on the 40-man roster, etc.), but you certainly hope so.

Good guys like him with skill sets like his deserve some kind of shot. (Or at least a second shot.)

Can the Grizzlies Finally Break Through in the PCL in 2011?

If there is one organization in the Giants system that has taken strides in the past couple of years, it has to be the Fresno Grizzlies. Despite the competitiveness of the Pacific Coast League and the South Division, the Grizzlies have made strides from a mediocre squad to one that has been very competitive. After finishing with losing records in 2008 (67-76) and 2009 (71-73), Fresno bounced back in a big way, finishing with a 75-69 record, their first winning record since 2007.

Granted, while the improvement was nice, a late season swoon cost the Grizzlies the South Division to division rival Sacramento, the Oakland A's PCL Affiliate. The Rivercats have had a strangehold on the South Division title, as they have won it in seven of the past eight seasons.

Of course, you could argue the Rivercats' dominance over the Grizzlies is more of an indicator of how good the A's system has been in comparison to the Giants over the past decade. That point is probably true since the A's have built their rosters more through the draft and the farm under Billy Beane rather than the Giants who have built their teams through Free Agency under Brian Sabean. That being said, since 2007, the Giants have really invested more into the draft and their minor league system, which explains the progression the Grizzlies have made as a team the past few years. The Grizzlies are bringing up higher quality players with upside and talent, a far cry from the days when the players mostly manning the Fresno roster were Four-A players who really had little to no shot in terms of making the Giants squad.

This year though, it'll be interesting to see if the Grizzlies can finally break the Rivercats' reign over the South Division and win the Division for the first time since 1998 (their first year of existence).

Many of the crucial elements of the Grizzlies' success from a year ago are gone. Buster Posey was an offensive catalyst with the Grizzlies during the first half last year, but it's safe to say that he's probably not going to see the PCL in the future except for injury rehab assignments. The same goes with Madison Bumgarner, who has found a niche in the Giants rotation (and he still has one despite his early season struggles this year).

Also gone from the Fresno are Jesus Guzman, Eugenio Velez, John Bowker and Matt Downs, players who flip-flopped between Fresno and "cups of coffee" with the Giants club. Sure, all those guys were probably fringe prospects at best, and were (and still are) long-shots in terms of being successful Major League players, but they all contributed to the Grizzlies' offensive and overall success in 2010.

That being said, the Grizzlies do have a lot of players who are capable of having some success in 2011. First base prospect Brett Pill hit 16 home runs last year in Fresno and is off to a good start in 2011, as he is currently hitting .371 with two home runs, 14 RBI and has an OPS of .953. Also, Thomas Neal is off to a decent start, showing good plate patience (.345 OBP) in his first eight games in Triple-A. While the power (.385 slugging) isn't exactly where you would want it, Neal started slow last year as well in Richmond before ending the year with some decent power numbers (12 home runs, .440 slugging).

They key to the Grizzlies offense may be how the journeymen do, as Emmanuel Burriss, Travis Ishikawa and Tyler Graham are vets who will be expected to carry the Grizzlies offense. Burriss is off to a good start, showcasing good average (.339) and stolen base (15) numbers. However, Ishikawa and Graham have struggled a bit this year, as their OPS numbers are .484 and .629, respectively. Brock Bond and Ryan Rohlinger are also infielders who had solid 2010 campaigns in Fresno last year that are off to slow starts (Bond is hitting .229 and Rohlinger is hitting .211), but at least Rohlinger has showed some power potential, as he has hit three home runs and 11 RBI in 63 plate appearances this year.

Conor Gillaspie took a bit of a dive in Richmond last year after putting together a solid 2009 in San Jose, but Gillaspie as at least holding his own a bit with the Grizzlies. He has hit two home runs, and has continued to showcase solid plate patience at the dish (9.7 walk percentage). While he could cut the number of strikeouts (he has whiffed 12 times), Gillaspie is certainly capable of bouncing back in 2011 after losing so much ground as a prospect since breaking into the Majors in 2008.

The pitching seems to be key to the Grizzlies success in 2011, and much like the offense, the Grizzlies will need to replace a lot of arms. Kevin Pucetas and Eric Hacker, two inning-eaters for the Grizzlies a year ago are gone, and the Grizzlies will have to rely on some new arms to carry them through the PCL season. Two starters who have showed some promise this year are Shane Loux and Andrew Kown, who have posted solid ERA numbers (3.72 and 3.18, respectively) in their first 3 starts. While both guys are pretty old (they are 31 and 28, respectively), they could provide some stability to the Grizzlies rotation, since they probably won't be breaking the Giants' rotation anytime soon (barring injury of course).

The bullpen does seem to have some upside. Steve Edlefsen is off to a good start, as he struck out five and only walked one in 6.1 IP. Marc Kroon, Alex Hinshaw and Henry Sosa are also solid options, though they have struggled with walk issues this year and in the past. That being said, Kroon (who's pretty old at 38...but hey, he was a Baseball America Top-100 prospect in 1995!) and Hinshaw still can strike guys out, as they have put up good K/9 numbers this year in their appearances (Kroon has a K/9 of 11.4 and Hinshaw has a 11.1 rate). If Sosa can get his walk issues under control (9.0 BB/9 rate this year), he may be another good option, though it's safe to say he's not exactly the prospect he once was a couple of years ago, when many Giants fans thought he could be a viable option in the rotation or bullpen for the Giants in the near future.

In terms of projection, the Grizzlies should be where they were a year ago: in the mix with the Rivercats for the division title. However, the pitching (a weak spot for the team the past few years) needs to have some good years out of their "older" prospects, and Sosa and Edlefsen need to capture some of the promise they showcased a couple of years ago when they were lighting up the lower levels. If they can do that, then the Grizzlies could be in good shape, because the Grizzlies have the offensive firepower to compete in the PCL in 2011.