Poll Results: Diamondbacks Best Farm, Brown Giants Top Prospect

So, with the polls now closed, I figured it would be nice to recap some of the polls and kind of throw my own two cents on the results. A couple of new polls will be up this week, so it'll be more fodder for people to play with here on the blog.


Question 1: Who has the Best Farm System in the NL West?

San Francisco Giants: 8 votes (30 percent)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 10 votes (38 percent)
Colorado Rockies: 2 votes (7 percent)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 0 votes (0 percent)
San Diego Padres: 6 votes (23 percent)

Total votes: 26

OTF's Take: With pitchers Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs and Archie Bradley heading the list, it makes sense why the Diamondbacks were voted with having the best system in the NL West. Initially, I put the Padres because I liked the Yonder Alonso-Yasmani Grandal combo, but in terms of top-end talent, the Padres do compare in comparison to the Diamondbacks. Considering the need for pitching and the ballpark factors that favor hitters, legitimate pitching prospects are a need in the Arizona system, and they seem to have that in the three-headed monster of Bauer, Skaggs and Bradley.

The Giants got a lot of votes, but I'm not sure they would have gotten so many had this been a neutral-site. I like Gary Brown and Joe Panik, but beyond that and the system is very questionable. I would argue that the Rockies have the third best system in the NL West with the Giants following very closely behind. That being said, a lot of the prospects in the Giants system are pretty raw, so I think the Giants could pull into third place should they get some solid performances from some guys in the lower minors.

As for the Dodgers, they're the best team in the NL West right now (no thanks to Matt Kemp), but the system is looking thin with the graduation of Kenley Jansen, Javy Guerra and Dee Gordon. Zach Lee is a legit prospect, but he seems a few years away and after Lee, their system is pretty questionable. With a new ownership group though, I expect that to change dramatically in the next couple of years.


Question No. 2: Who is the Giants' No. 1 Prospect in 2012?

Gary Brown: 31 votes (72 percent)
Joe Panik: 2 votes (4 percent)
Tommy Joseph: 2 votes (4 percent)
Heath Hembree: 3 votes (6 percent)
Andrew Susac: 1 vote (2 percent)
Francisco Peguero: 0 votes (0 percent)
Kyle Crick: 1 vote (0 percent)
Eric Surkamp: 2 votes (4 percent)
Other: 2 votes (4 percent)

Total votes: 43


OTF's Take: Not a big surprise here considering Brown is the consensus top prospect according to almost every publication and blog (with Seedlings 2 Stars being the lone exception; they rank Surkamp higher than Brown which to me, is ridiculous). At 72 percent, it is obvious that Giants fans are as hopeful as most analysts out there when it comes to Brown's future. He's off to a slow start, but even now, Brown still remains the Giants' best prospect by a wide margin.

Hembree comes in at second with three votes and with the injury to Brian Wilson, Hembree could see some time in the Giants bullpen by June. He already made the transition to Fresno a couple of weeks ago, so it's obvious that the Giants are looking for him to contribute to the Big League club sooner rather than later. Panik, Joseph and Surkamp come in at second with two votes each and Susac and Crick follow with one vote. The most surprising non-vote getter was Peguero who received none. I find this surprising because Jonathan Mayo ranked Peguero No. 99 in his Top-100 MLB prospects list going into 2012.

In terms of the other, I'm guessing Ehire Adrianza and Hector Sanchez were the one who garnered the votes. I like both of them, but at the same time, they aren't in the same tier as Brown and not even in the same tier as Hembree, Panik and Joseph. That being said, Sanchez is holding his own as the Giants' backup catcher, so he's off to a good start to begin 2012, even if he is now technically graduated as a prospect.

Can 2012 Be Bounce Back Campaigns for Juan Perez and Nick Noonan?

Wow...12 days. Can't really apologize for that long a lay-off, especially considering my history (it would be like Rick Pitino apologizing for another relationship out of wedlock). But, with school being what it is here, and my responsibilities to Seedlings 2 Stars, posting here has been more difficult than usual. Hopefully though, I can get back into the swing of things here at OTF. I will be having a recap of general Minor League performances later this week, and should finish off the rankings for good. Of course, considering my inconsistencies with posting, I will make no guarantees (though I will make guarantees to bitch about how much I'm frustrated with the Brandon Belt situation on Twitter...sorry it couldn't be helped).

Two players who have really jumped out to me to begin the year in 2012 are Juan Perez and Nick Noonan. Both were Top-30 prospects according to Baseball America going into 2011 who fell out of the rankings after lackluster years in Double-A Richmond. However, they have regrouped to have solid starts to begin the 2012 year and one has to wonder if they are in the process of regaining their once-lofty prospect statuses. That being said, are their starts legitimate signs of progress? Or are they just good months that are flashes in the pan?

Let's take a look on the outlook for Perez and Noonan for the remainder of the season.


Juan Perez, Outfielder

Age: 25
Current Team: Richmond Flying Squirrels

2012 numbers: .317 average, .359 OBP, .400 slugging percentage, .759 OPS, 10 runs scored, one home run, three stolen bases, three walks, 14 strikeouts in 64 plate appearances (through 16 games).


Why is Perez's Hot Start Promising?

A late-blooming prospect (Perez didn't break into professional ball until he was 23), Perez has the makings of an Andres Torres-esque player (and I liked Torres a lot when he was a Giant). Despite his diminutive stature (he's five-feet, 11 inches and a 185 pounds), he sports decent pop in his bat (he hit 13 home runs in San Jose in 2010) and good speed on the basepaths (he stole 22 bases on 28 attempts in 2011 in Richmond). Even though he struggled in the transition from the California League to the Eastern League last year (he posted a slash of .256/.303/.381 in 497 plate appearances), he has bounced back in a repeat campaign this year, as he is sporting a slash of .317/.359/.400 through 17 games.

With Gary Brown struggling on the offensive end, Perez has been the main catalyst for the Flying Squirrels offense, as he has scored 10 runs and stolen three bases on four attempts. He also has a home run and two doubles, a sign that the power that he displayed in the California League in 2010 wasn't a complete fluke. While it is still early in the year, the solid start in his second year in the EL, along with a good campaign in Spring Training bodes good things for Perez who fell off the radar after the 2011 season. If he continues to build on this solid start, he could be a candidate to move up to Fresno at some point this year, especially if someone gets injured in the Giants outfield.


What Should Giants Fans Expect from Perez for the Remainder of 2012?

Despite the gaudy slash line, Perez's performance has been far from perfect. The biggest concern has been his eye at the plate, which has been raw and unrefined as a professional. Last year, Perez posted a BB/K ratio of 0.29 and this year hasn't been better, despite his familiarity with Eastern League pitching. His BB/K ratio is currently 0.21, highlighted by 14 strikeouts. Add this with a contact rate of 76 percent, and one has to wonder if Perez will ever be able to make consistent enough contact as a professional to be a legitimate Major League player.

That being said, those aspects were concerns of Torres as a professional. However, pre-injury, Torres was able to be a productive player for the Giants during their 2009 and 2010 campaigns. While Torres had a much more patient eye at the plate than Perez, he was also older (Torres was in his early thirties prior to his breakout) and actually was around the same percentage contact-wise. Sans his 2010 campaign in San Jose where he was caught 15 times on 32 attempts, Perez has sported solid speed and efficiency on the basepaths and could be at the very least a platoon player at the Major League level in addition being a solid pinch-running option off the bench. There still is a long way to go for Perez, but his solid April in Richmond is a promising start for the 25-year-old outfielder.



Nick Noonan, Infielder

Age: 22
Current Team: Fresno Grizzlies

2012 numbers: .333 average, .370 OBP, .381 slugging, .751 OPS, 5 runs scored, 1 stolen base, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts in 46 plate appearances.


Why is Noonan's Hot Start So Promising?

Noonan was once a top prospect who held Chase Utley comparisons until he started struggling at the plate starting in 2009 in San Jose. After two lackluster campaigns in Richmond (his Double-A career slash is .226/.290/.297), the Giants decided to move Noonan up to Triple-A to give him a change of pace and scenery. So far, the move has paid off, as Noonan has put up a .751 OPS in 13 games (his previous high OPS was .727 in 2009 in San Jose).

The biggest improvement for Noonan to begin the 2012 year has been his plate approach, as he is currently sporting a BB/K ratio of 0.75. Noonan has always produced good approaches at the plate, for he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.67 and 0.55 in San Jose and Richmond, respectively in 2011. However, considering his campaigns in San Jose and Richmond were repeats of those levels, the fact that he is carrying his disciplined approach to the next level is a promising sign. Furthermore, Noonan has displayed a strong ability to make contact against Pacific Coast League pitching, as his contact rate currently sits at 90 percent for the year. Considering that his career contact rate in Double-A was 78 percent, this is a nice indicator that Noonan is finally honing his approach and abilities at the plate after so many years of disappointing performances in the minors over his professional career.


What Should Giants Fans Expect from Noonan for the Remainder of 2012?

Despite Noonan's nice start at the plate, his defensive play has been a different story. With Charlie Culberson a mainstay at the keystone position and Conor Gillaspie holding down the hot corner, Noonan has flip flopped between shortstop and third base with the Grizzlies in 2012. However, the results have not been good, as he has committed four errors already and is sporting a fielding percentage of .852. If Noonan continues to hit, it is likely that he will get more playing time and thus more opportunities in the field, which naturally will raise his fielding percentage. That being said, Noonan hasn't showed the Giants brass or Grizzlies' coaching staff that his glove merits regular playing time at a certain position so far this year.

Also, while Noonan is obviously performing much better in Triple-A than in Double-A, one has to wonder if his hot start is a true measure of improvement, or if it is proof of the old Brian Sabean-adage that "Triple-A Pitching isn't very good." While it is typical to see top position prospects see extended time in the PCL or IL (International League), the same doesn't ring true for pitchers, as top pitching prospects spend little to no time at all in Triple-A before they make the jump from Double-A to the Majors. Sure, Noonan may be hitting in Fresno, but he might be doing so against Quad-A pitchers or guys who are simply lifetime Minor Leaguers in the Matt Kinney and Kevin Pucetas mold.  Hence, Noonan might be able to sustain the hot start he's built in 2012. Unfortunately, unless his glove work gets better, a solid 2012 campaign might not be a sign that he's ready for the Major Leagues, but rather an example of why PCL stats (especially ones in Fresno) should always be taken with a grain of salt.

Around the Horn: S2S Opening Day Recaps, WTGCTT Lines, Age vs. Level at MCC, Giants Window at BTB, Advanced Stats at MLC

Have a lot of work to catch up on, but wanted to do a quick post here at OTF. I just realized I haven't shot out a lot of links lately, and I figured it would be a good time to throw out some interesting pieces I have read over the past week and share it with people who follow it here. The list complies of a nice array of pieces from some Giants-centric, and just general baseball blogs out there on the Web.


Seedlings 2 Stars Minor League Opening Day Coverage

If you haven't checked it out on the blogroll, please check out the work at Seedlings 2 Stars. It's a Minor League blog run by the FanSided network. Wally Fish runs the baseball side of things and keeps things going at S2S, and they have some great writers who contribute to the site. Nathaniel Stoltz, whom I was a big fan of during his Bleacher Report days, used to write for the site and helped start it, but it seems like he has gone away from the site and is doing something different. Wally asked me to write for the site, and I have contributed three pieces so far: a look at the top Latin American position and pitching prospects from the NL West, and a Opening Day recap of the Sally.

I'm still figuring out my role with the site (kinda tough to write as freely as I do here with so many other writers contributing and being new to the staff), but I expect to write 2-3 times a week for the site on general minor league and perhaps scouting stuff (I would like to delve into more foreign and Latin America scouting pieces, since it doesn't seem anybody on the site has claimed a stake or expertise in that area to my knowledge). So, for now, don't expect much "general" minor league or scouting stuff on this site for the time being (the DPL Profiles and Draft looks I'll probably save for S2S), but that could be a good thing as it will allow me to focus more on being "Giants-centric" here at OTF.



When the Giants Come to Town Begins It's Grind

If you want to look at the most committed Giants blogger (and especially Minor League blogger on the net), look no further than Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town. With the start of the Minor and Major League seasons, Dr. B has started his daily recaps, which highlight top performers from every Giants Minor League team in action that night. While McCovey Chronicles does the same thing with poster Steve S, I really do enjoy Dr. B's take on the Minor League standouts each night. It has become daily reading for me, and definitely has made things easier here at OTF. Don't know how he manages to teach in college while still posting as much as he does!


Age vs. Level by Roger at McCovey Chronicles (Part I and Part II)

One of the most ambitious "Giants-centric" pieces I have read in a long time, this two-part series by Roger is so good that I am in the middle of reading it over again to sink it all in. Complete with thorough writing and graphs to back it up, Roger at McC takes a look at how teenagers who break in at A-Ball end up as Major League players in comparison to players who break into A-Ball at higher ages (such as college guys for example). It is an interesting piece to read, especially when you consider the Giants' draft strategy for the past decade or so (favoring low-ceiling, low-risk college guys in comparison to higher-ceiling, higher-risk teens). It isn't something that will take you a couple of minutes, but it's an engrossing read and one of the more enjoyable pieces on McCovey Chronicles I have encountered on the Fan Posts section in a long time.


David Fung's "Visual Look" at the Giants Window to Compete at Beyond the Box Score

I have loved Fung's graphical take on "the Window", which was a phrase used by Billy Beane explaining the Athletics plan and how their time to compete was in limited spurts during his tenure there due to the Small Market and limited budget (Jonah Keri wrote an interesting piece on it for Grantland that refuted Beane's position). Fung's graphs are always great, and the pieces give a nice general glance of what teams (the Giants in the case) will be dealing with not only now, but four to five years down the line. If you can, check out the others, just to see what the "windows" to compete are like for the other teams in Major League Baseball.


Minor League Central

It kills me that I haven't found this site earlier, but Minor League Central is basically to Minor League Ball what Fangraphs is to Major League Ball. While the site's creators and analysts note that not all of the data is completely accurate (they are subject to the recorders of the numbers, whom they admit are less accurate at the lower levels), it does give a little bit more "advanced" numbers from players who are currently in the Minor Leagues. Expect me to use more numbers from MLC in future posts (though I have already started), and I can't begin to tell you how enthralled I am that a site like this exists on the Web. I'm about as excited as Chris Farley was when one of his "comrades" told the "Sheep Pudding" story around the camp fire in the movie "Amost Heroes."

OTF Top 30: No. 21-25; Duvall, Correa, Gregorio, Bochy, Galindo

We're winding down with the Top 30, and now we're really delving deeper into the Giants system in terms of finding guys with talent. While a lot of the prospects in this series of the list have talent and some potential, they do carry considerable amount of risk and are still a long ways off from the Major League level. All of the guys are C prospects, so you're probably not going to find them on the Top-15 of many lists (though Gregorio rates high with a lot of scouts and experts because of his youth, size and upside). However, there are a few guys I'm pretty high on in this series whom I think can make major strides with good seasons this year. Don't be surprised to see two-three of these guys rise to C+ or B- grades next year.

No. 21: Adam Duvall, Third Base

Overall Grade: C
Projection: Major League backup; platoon player at the best, could be a career minor leaguer

Summary: When it comes to third base prospects in the Giants system from Louisville, Chris Dominguez gets all the hype. It's understandable. Dominguez mashed in college for four years with the Cardinals, and he was a third round pick in 2009 who sported plus power and arm strength as a prospect. Furthermore, at six-foot, five inches and 225 pounds, he has the size and frame of a player with Major League potential.

And yet, Dominguez may not be the best prospect from Louisville in the Giants system. Adam Duvall, a former teammate of his who took over the hot corner after Dominguez graduated from Louisville in 2009, is quickly catching up to the more ballyhooed Dominguez after a solid 2011 season in the Sally where he earned All-Star honors.

Duvall is an interesting player because he doesn't have the "tools" that Dominguez has. Duvall's got a good frame (six-foot, one inches, and 205 pounds), but it looks diminutive in comparison to his former college teammate. Furthermore, none of Duvall's tools have ever been plus rated by scouts, which explains why he dropped to the Giants' slot in the 11th round of the 2010 Draft. Even Baseball America in their profile on him in their Prospect Handbook for 2012 (they ranked him as the Giants' 28th best prospect) noted that he had average range and arm strength, fringy speed and that his at-bats "aren't likely to be found on an instructional video" (e.g. his swing doesn't impress). In a myriad of ways, Duvall seems to fit the profile of an organizational player at-best.

And yet, his numbers in Augusta were promising, and do flash potential. Yes, he was old for the Sally (22 years old), but so was Dominguez (23 years old), and yet that hasn't prevented scouts and experts from still rating Dominguez as one of the Giants' top 3rd base prospects (Baseball America rated him as the Giants' 16th best prospect this year). Let's take a look at the numbers from their respective seasons in Augusta:

Dominguez (2010):  .272/.326/.456 (average/OBP/slugging), 21 home runs, 85 runs scored, 35 walks, 133 strikeouts, 0.26 BB/K ratio in 608 plate appearances.


Duvall (2011): .285/.385/.527 (average/OBP/slugging), 22 home runs, 69 runs scored, 59 walks, 98 walks, 0.60 BB/K ratio in 510 plate appearances.

If one looks at the numbers and considers the age factor (that Duvall broke into the Sally one year earlier than Dominguez), then Duvall's season looks far superior. Not only did Duvall flash power potential (he hit more home runs is almost 100 less at-bats), but he also displayed a better eye at the plate and made better contact against pitchers in the Sally. Of course, Duvall's line isn't perfect by any means (at 19.2 percent, his strikeout rate is still high, especially considering his age), but it definitely adds a little bit to the debate in terms of which former Cardinal is a better prospect at third base.

As good as Duvall's offensive year was, there still are some serious flaws in his game, mostly with his glove. First off, defensively he sports not only average tools, but he also struggled at times with concentration in the field his first full season in professional ball. Last year, he committed 27 errors and posted a fielding percentage of .908, which is very disheartening. He may not have the athletic gifts to be apremium or even an average infielder. That being said, he needs to cut down the errors in 2012 if he wants to be able to stay at the position as he moves up the Giants system.


What to Expect in 2012: Most of Duvall's value as a prospect comes with his bat. He was four for eight on stolen base attempts last year, and he'll be lucky to steal five bags a year considering the reports on his speed and athleticism. Hence, Duvall doesn't offer much upside with his glove or on the basepaths, so if Duvall wants to move through the Giants system, he's going to have to continue to hit. He has a good plate approach, and his power tool seems to be legitimate (Robbie Knopf made some interesting points about his power numbers in Augusta). In addition, his offensive numbers are bound to get better as he moves to the hitter-friendly California League this upcoming season, so that will certainly be a boost to his stock.

That being said, we have seen prospect bash in the lower minors and struggle once they start to face better pitching and hit in more pitcher friendly environments (the Eastern League will be a huge test). While I am not saying Duvall is going to fall into that category, he hasn't done much to prove that he isn't more than a one year wonder. Duvall's campaign in San Jose should be interesting to pay attention to, especially if he gets off to a hot start. If so, I'll be curious to see if the Giants will take the same path with him as they did with Dominguez (move him to Double-A mid-year after he mashed High-A pitching). If that happens (though I think it is unlikely), that should be a real gauge of Duvall's status and projection as a prospect.



No. 22: Hector Correa, right-handed pitcher

Overall grade: C
Projection: Middle innings reliever; perhaps could find himself in a setup role

Summary: Correa was acquired in a trade in 2009 that sent former left-handed bullpen arm Jack Taschner to Florida. At six-foot, three inches and a 175 pounds, Correa has a tall, wiry frame and has flashed some potential, though he is probably destined for middle relief at the Major League level.

Correa went under the radar when he was acquired because he was battling shoulder issues and missed the entire 2009 season due to surgery. However, when he resurfaced in 2010 in Augusta, he dominated the Sally, striking out 58 batters and only walking 16 in 43.2 IP. His split campaign in San Jose and Richmond last year proved his comeback wasn't a fluke, as he continued to excel on the mound in the Cal and Eastern League. In San Jose, he struck out 37 in 42 innings pitched and posted an ERA of 1.93 and a K/BB ratio of 3.08. While his ERA did jump up to 3.20 with the Flying Squirrels, he still showed excellent command in 39.1 IP, posting a K/BB ratio of 2.67.

His tools and arsenal as a pitcher rate well by scouts and experts, as he throws a fastball that sits 91-92 MPH but can touch the mid-90's. While his slider is rated as a "below average" pitch, according to Baseball America, his changeup is considered to be a strong secondary pitch, and many people believe that Correa can succeed with that two pitch arsenal, especially if he remains in the bullpen. Here is what Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town said in his writeup of Correa this season (he rated him as the Giants' 20th best prospect):

"Baggs did an Organizational Report on him for BA in November and reported that his fastball was in the "mid-90s" and he combined it with a "plus-plus" changeup. The changeup allows him to be effective against LH batters allowing the Giants to stretch him out to 3 and 4 inning stints in Richmond. He could still be stretched all the way out to starter, but I have to say it's more likely he'll end up as a setup man or long reliever in the majors."

Considered a good athlete with a lean, strong frame and plus makeup, Correa certainly has the potential to be a viable pitcher in the Giants bullpen as soon as this season. He was a top prospect in the Marlins system prior to injury, and now that those shoulder issues seem to be a thing of the past, Correa is starting to live up to the expectations that were placed upon him when he was drafted in the fourth round out of Puerto Rico in the 2006 draft.




What to expect in 2012: Correa was placed on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, and it seems like it was a good idea. With Dan Runzler probably out for an extended time, Correa could break in and have an impact at the Major League roster as soon as this year. Correa didn't get much time with the Big League roster this Spring, but he did strike out 3 in 2.1 innings pitched. However, his two walks and three hits allowed probably displayed that he could use some seasoning in Fresno to begin the year.

I like what Correa brings to the table, but his limited ceiling as a bullpen arm and prior history of injury issues (as I said though, it looks to be in the past, but you never know) limit me from grading him higher than a C. However, should any of the Giants' bullpen arms falter or suffer injury, Correa could be a strong first option the Giants may resort too. He has been stellar the past couple of years, and at 23 years old, he still has a lot of years and mileage left in the tank.



No. 23: Joan Gregorio, right-handed pitcher

Overall Grade: C
Projection: No. 3-5 starter; could be a long or middle innings reliever

Summary: When it comes to pitchers out of Latin America in the Giants system, probably no other prospect (well...except for maybe Adalberto Mejia) generates as much buzz as Joan Gregorio. At six-foot, seven inches and a 180 pounds, Gregorio is the kind of tall, raw but high-ceiling pitching prospect that most scouts and analysts foam at the mouth for.

Gregorio signed with the Giants out of the Dominican Republic in 2010, and immediately started playing in the Dominican Summer League after signing. While his numbers weren't as impressive in the DSL as Mejia's (but then again, few pitchers did what Mejia did last summer), they still were solid overall and displayed that Gregorio wields a tremendous amount of potential. Gregorio made 14 starts and pitched 74 innings for the Giants' DSL squad, and he held batters at bay, posting a 2.80 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 2.41 K/BB ratio. While his strikeout numbers weren't gaudy by any measure (41 strikeouts), his control (17) and command were still impressive for an 18 year old who had just recently signed.

After the strong performance in the DSL, the Giants moved Gregorio to the Arizona Rookie League in 2011 and he did even better in his second partial professional season. Gregorio increased his strikeout rate (to 7.7) without sacrificing much control (his walk rate rose to 2.9), and he posted a stellar 2.30 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 50 innings pitched and 12 starts in Arizona.

One of Gregorio's strengths as a pitcher, in addition to his control and command, is his ability to induce groundballs. According to Minor League Central, Gregorio posted a GB/FB ratio of 1.14, with a groundball rate of 45 percent. Considering this was his first taste of pitching stateside, the ability to keep the ball on the ground and minimize hard contact (he only gave up a line drive rate of 14.8 percent) bodes good things for his future, especially if he can continue to keep up the stellar strikeout rates and command he displayed in 2011.

John Sickels of Minor League Ball has been high on Gregorio as a prospect in the Giants system going into 2012. Here is what he says about Gregorio in his report:

"He’s hyper-projectable, already throws 89-94 MPH, and may pick up more velocity as he matures. He has a decent curve but is still working on his changeup. He was one of the more promising pitchers in the Arizona Rookie League, but he needs another weapon against left-handed hitters, who hit .333 against him. At this point his youth and projectability are more important than the numbers, but the numbers aren’t bad either."

Of course, as Sickels notes, Gregorio's tools as a pitcher are still works-in-progress, and he's a long way from the Bigs. So, he definitely carries a size-able amount of risk. That being said, the potential is there, and with his long frame and projectable body, Gregorio is far from a polished product as a prospect, which should give the Giants organization and fans a lot of hope for the future with him.


What to expect in 2012: The word on the street is that Gregorio is going to be starting in Augusta, and at 20 years old, that makes sense. He and fellow AZL teammate Clayton Blackburn should make a good 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation in the Sally. As far as what kind of impact Gregorio will have on the mound in his first full season, it's still hard to project because his tools are so raw, but I think Gregorio is trending in the right direction. He's already got some good velocity on the fastball, and as he grows into his body, the velocity will only increase. As of now, reports have him as a two-pitch pitcher, but if he can continue to make strides with his changeup, then he could sport a dangerous arsenal as a middle-of-the-rotation guy. I don't think Gregorio has the upside or potential of a No. 1, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Giants rotation in the future as well.

If his tools develop as planned, then the Giants will have another home-grown arm to stock their rotation/pen with. Of course, we said the same things about Henry Sosa and Merkin Valdez, but Gregorio's size and frame make him one of the more enticing arms the Giants have had from Latin America in the past few years. He's a C prospect now, but I expect him to make nice strides this year in Augusta and make some kind of a jump in grade in 2013.




No. 24: Brett Bochy, left-handed pitcher

Overall Grade: C
Projection: Middle relief with possibility to be a setup guy or spot closer

Summary: Drafted in the 20th round of the Rule 4 draft, a lot of experts and Giants fans took the pick with a grain of salt. After all, Bochy was the son of manager Bruce Bochy, and while he did have a stellar career at Kansas (he posted a 0.78 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 23 innings with 34 strikeouts as Kansas' closer his final year in college), scouts weren't exactly bursting with praise about Bochy having a future at the Big League level. Many felt that the pick was either a.) done for publicity purposes or b.) done more as a favor to Bruce.

However, since making his debut in Augusta last year, the six-foot, two-inch lefty has turned around some heads in baseball analyst and scout circles, as many people are starting to recognize that he offers more to the table as a prospect than just being Bruce Bochy's son. Pitching primarily out of the bullpen for the Green Jackets, Bochy made 35 appearances and pitched 39 innings in the Sally last year, and finished the season with a 1.38 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 10 saves.

Bochy's biggest strength as a pitcher is his impeccable command and strikeout ability, which he displayed even at Kansas. In Augusta over the full course of a Minor League season, it was even more evident, as he struck out 53 batters, good for a 12.1 K/9. To make things better, Bochy limited his free passes in the Sally last year (8 total walks), which resulted in him posting a ridiculous 6.63 K/BB ratio. To put things in perspective, the last pitcher who put up K/BB ratios that impressive in the Sally from the Giants organization was Madison Bumgarner, who posted a K/BB ratio of 7.81 in 2008. While Bumgarner's ratio is obviously more impressive because he is a starting pitcher and Bochy is a reliever, it does add some context on how sterling Bochy's numbers were in his first professional season.

If there is anything to knock against Bochy, it may be that his ceiling is limited to a bullpen role at the Major League level, and he may not have the kind of elite stuff to be a closer, either. His arsenal is mainly a fastball/slider combo, with his fastball ranging from 90-93 MPH. His slider also is tough on right handed hitters, according to Sickels in his report on Bochy. Another issue is Bochy's history of arm issues, as he had TJ surgery after blowing out his elbow his last year at Kansas. However, the arm issues didn't seem to be a problem for him at all last season in Augusta.


What to expect in 2012: Because of his age (24 years old) and low ceiling, Bochy could move up quickly this year in the Giants system. The Giants already decided to have him skip High-A San Jose, as he will start the year in Double-A Richmond. Richmond might not be the only destination for him this year, for if his Spring Training was any indicator (he struck out two in an inning of work with the Big League club this Spring), it wouldn't be surprising to see him see some time in Fresno or even the Majors should injuries or ineffectiveness hit the bullpen.

Overall, Bochy could end up being a gem in the rough for this Giants organization. He went from a 20th round pick with arm issues, to a strong reliever with excellent command in the matter of a year's time. The Eastern League will obviously be a step up in competition from the Sally, but if his progress from the beginning of last Spring to this Spring is any indicator, then Giants fans could have a lot more to look forward to from Bruce's son in 2012.



No. 25: Jesus Galindo, outfielder

Overall Grade: C
Projection: Platoon to backup outfielder; could be a starting one if his contact ability improves

Summary: Behind Gary Brown, Galindo probably has the best speed tool set out of any prospect in the Giants system. Last season, he swiped 47 bases on 55 attempts (an 85 percent success rate) in Salem Keizer, his first season stateside (he played the previous two years in the Dominican Summer League). In addition to the stellar stolen base numbers in the Northwest League last year, scouts and coaches have raved about his speed. The biggest endorsement came from Volcanoes manager Tom Trebelhorn who compared Galindo's baserunning ability to Ricky Henderson.

A burner on the basepaths from Venezuela at five-feet, 11-inches and 175 pounds, Galindo sports good athleticism for his size, though he could afford to add some strength to increase his value at the plate. While he has been lauded for his plate discipline (he posted BB/K ratios of 0.76 and 1.17 in 2009 and 2010 in the DSL, respectively, and last year he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.54), his ability to make consistent contact as a hitter has been up for debate. While he did hit .276 last year in the NWL, he struggled to hit for average in the DSL, posting batting averages of .244 and .246 in his two seasons there. Galindo has the ability to make contact, as he posted an 81 percent contact rate a year ago, but he needs to show progress this year that the skills he displayed in 2011 is more of an indicator of what Giants fans should expect from 2012-forward.

Defensively, scouts are high about Galindo's potential, with Rob Gordon of the Minor League Baseball Analyst noting that he covers ground well in center field, and the has a strong enough arm to keep runners honest. Baseball America noted the same things, saying that he maximized his speed by getting good jumps on balls. I'm not sure if Galindo will be a premium defensive outfielder at the next level (it's far too early to tell to be honest), but he certainly has the tools and athleticism to be a strong defender despite his diminutive stature (think Andres Torres-esque).

The main issue with Galindo is his lack of power, as he displayed little last year in the NWL and even less in the DSL. Last year with the Volcanoes, Galindo posted an ISO of .088 and an extra base hit percentage of 21 percent, which are far from impressive. Yes, Galindo has tremendous speed and he's going to have the potential to beat out well-placed groundballs on a regular basis (especially since he's a switch hitter). On that same note though, if he can be able to hit the ball in the gaps, he could be a regular threat to be a 20-plus doubles and 15-plus triples guy on a regular basis. Galindo may never be a home run hitter and with his size, it would be hard for him to project as one too. But, with his speed, if he can garner even a little bit of gap power, then his ceiling as a hitter could be tremendous.


What to expect in 2012: At 21 years old, Galindo could start the year in San Jose, especially with Gary Brown and perhaps Jarrett Parker moving on to Richmond in 2012. It may be wiser to start him in Augusta, simply not to rush him, but he is a bit of an older prospect because he spent a couple of years in the DSL. Wherever he starts at in 2012, Galindo will be an interesting prospect to watch in 2012. He has incredible speed, solid plate discipline and a solid glove in the field. If he can continue to make contact in the Sally or Cal League like he did in the NWL, then the future could look very bright for Galindo and the Giants.

Spring Training Notes: End of Spring, More Moves, Sleeper?

So after today's game, the Giants have officially ended Spring Training. While there is still a multitude of moves to do, it'll be very interesting to see how things shake up, both at the Minor and Major League level.

-- After today's 7-4 loss to the Brewers, the Giants have officially ended their Spring Training game stint. Brandon Crawford assured himself of the starting position with a home run, and finished the Spring with a .340/.417/.566 slash to go along with three home runs, 11 runs scored and 13 RBI.

-- Another player who saw time in Fresno and San Jose last year who could be a candidate for the 25-man roster is Hector Sanchez. While the Giants and many experts out there feel he could use more seasoning behind the plate, Sanchez did more than hold his own at the plate this spring. His Spring slash was .390/.386/.756 in 41 at-bats, and he also showed some power for his position as evidenced by his four home runs and three doubles. While Bruce Bochy may like the veteran presence of Eli Whiteside, it's obvious that Sanchez has more upside, which could be big considering it is hard to gauge how much Posey will play behind the plate this year. I still think Bochy will eventually go with the vet for the backup position, but Sanchez could play a huge role this year, especially if he transitions his ST performance to the PCL.

-- In addition to releasing Ramon Ortiz, the Giants also released some more players during the week of March 20-26th, according to Baseball America's Minor League transaction blog. The list includes RHP Ryan Bean, RHP Brennan Flick, RHP Stephen Shackleford, RHP Adam Thomas, RHP Sundrendy Windster, LHP Chuck Lofgren, 1B Josh Mazzola, 2B Kaohi Downing, OF Leo Ochoa.

-- Some of the interesting names of this bunch are Lofgren and Windster. Lofgren was a formerly touted prospect in the Indians system who was ranked as the 54th best prospect going into 2006 and 71st best prospect going into 2007 by Baseball America. However, the Bay Area product (he went to Serra High School, the same high school that produced Barry Bonds), has struggled in the minors and didn't do enough to impress the Giants this Spring. As for Windster, he was a converted position player who started pitching last season. However, he struggled in the Arizona Rookie League and continued to show issues this Spring. At 23 and not having played much beyond Augusta, the Giants figured that there wasn't much ceiling left with Windster.

-- Could middle infielder Joaquin Arias be a sleeper this year? With Mike Fontenot being released, he not only could be a viable option in Fresno this year, but he could challenge for a spot on the active roster as well (especially with Freddy Sanchez hurt and Emmanuel Burriss projected as the starting second baseman). Arias has impressed this Spring with a .304/.353/.457 slash this Spring with two home runs and a stolen base in 46 at-bats. Arias was formerly a top prospect in the Rangers system (he was rated as the 77th prospect in baseball according to Baseball America going into 2005), so the potential is there, even if it has faded a bit since shuffling between the Rangers and Royals organizations.

Division Clash: Comparing the NL West's Prospects by Postion (Catcher)

So with Opening Day approaching for Minor League teams everywhere, I figured it would be a good idea to look at and compare the other prospects and talent from other teams in the NL West to the ones in the Giants organization. With so many players, the best thing to do in my opinion was to take the top prospects by position from each team and compare them to one another. That way, everyone gets an idea who the other NL West teams have in their system, while also engaging where teams' strengths are and where the weaknesses are as well.

In this post, I'm going to look at the catching prospects in the NL West. The prospects are Michael Perez (Diamondbacks), Tim Federowicz (Dodgers), Wilin Rosario (Rockies), Yasmani Grandal (Padres), and Tommy Joseph (Giants). I'll write up a short summary on each Non-Giants prospect, and compare all the prospects to one another at the end (I'll be doing the same things for all the other positions as well).



Michael Perez, Arizona Diamondbacks



Age: 19 years old
Drafted: 5th round of 2011 MLB Draft
Hometown: Catano, Puerto Rico
Highest level played: Rookie Ball
2011 Regular Season Numbers: .217 average, .280 OBP, .565 slugging, two home runs, two walks, 10 strikeouts in 25 plate appearances (Arizona Rookie League).


Why Perez is the D'Backs' Best Catching Prospect?

While the Diamondbacks' system is stocked to the ceiling with high-end pitching, it's position depth is rather thin. Catcher may be the most lacking in terms of depth, as Perez rates as the best catching prospect in Arizona's system, and he was just recently drafted in the 2011 Rule 4 Draft.

Perez has some pedigree, as he was a fifth round pick, and was rated as the 24th best prospect in the Diamondbacks' system according to Baseball America. From Puerto Rico, Perez is a bit raw, but he does sport some athleticism and potential at five-foot, 10 inches and a 180 pounds. His arm strength and power bat are Perez's highest rated tools, but his plate approach and ability to make consistent contact at the plate still need a lot of work. John Sickels, who graded Perez a C prospect in his Prospect Handbook, said this in his report on Perez in his 2012 PH:

"A high school catcher from San Juan, Puerto Rico, Michael Perez was drafted in the fifth round last June and signed to a $235,000 bonus. He played just seven games of pro ball in the Arizona Rookie League, but those seven games matched the pre-draft scouting reports exactly: Perez has loads of power potential from the left side, but needs to make more contact and microwave his undercooked defensive skills behind home plate. He is a long way from the majors, but catchers with a chance to hit always bear watching."

Evaluation on Perez:

Perez is still young, raw and has a long road to the Majors, but at his age (he's going to be 19), the Diamondbacks can afford to be patient with him, especially with Miguel Montero established at the catcher's position at the Major League level. He does have a nice swing from the left side of the plate, though I do want to see more tape of him in game action before I can make a definitive judgment on his overall potential at the plate. With two home runs and two doubles in 23 at-bats in Rookie Ball last year, Perez certainly has the potential to be a power-hitting catcher in the future, and his size and profile resembles Montero's in a myriad of ways. That being said, his seven game stint in Rookie Ball was such a short sample, and we'll need to see if Perez's power will be able to sustain over the full course of a season. The Diamondbacks will probably start Perez this season in Short-Season Yakima, according to George Utter of Baseball Instinct. That will give Perez a chance to work on some things both offensively and defensively in extended Spring Training.

Grade: C (Potential to rise to a C+ or B- next year if he can transition his AZL power in the Northwest League).


Tim Federowicz, Los Angeles Dodgers



Age: 24
Drafted: 7th round of 2008 MLB Draft (Drafted by Boston)
Hometown: Erie, Pennsylvania
Highest Level Played: Majors
2011 Regular Season Numbers: .277 average, .338 OBP, .407 slugging, eight home runs, 32 walks, 63 strikeouts in 382 plate appearances (Double-A Portland); .325 average, .431 OBP, .627 slugging, six home runs,  15 walks, 20 strikeouts in 102 plate appearances (Triple-A Albuquerque); .154 average, .313 OBP, .154 slugging, zero home runs, two walks, four strikeouts in 16 plate appearances (Majors Dodgers).


Why is Federowicz the Dodgers' Best Catching Prospect?

The Dodgers have had quite a history of finding catching talent (Mike Piazza, Paul Lo Duca, Russell Martin, Carlos Santana), though keeping it in their organization has been a bit of a different story. Since Martin, the Dodgers haven't had much success in this department, as evidenced by free agent Rod Barajas getting a majority of playing time behind the backstop last season.

I had a hard time with this one mainly because I was torn between Federowicz and Gorman Erickson. Federowicz, who came from the Red Sox organization in the three way trade that sent Eric Bedard to Boson last year, is a polished defensive-first prospect and doesn't come with a lot of upside (his grade from Baseball America was 45 with low risk). Erickson on the other hand may be better with the bat, but he didn't really break out until last season. So, I decided to go with Federowicz, who is generally rated higher by most experts than Erickson. Baseball America rated him as the 10th best prospect in the Dodgers system, while Rob Gordon of the Minor League Baseball Analyst rated him as the Dodger's 14th best prospect.

As for Federowicz, he split his minor league season between Portland of the Eastern League and Albuquerque of the Pacific Coast League. At the plate, he didn't quite impress in Double-A, but he held his own for his position as he posted a .277/.338/.407 slash in 382 plate appearances. After he was traded to the Dodgers, he made the most of the PCL's hitter-friendly confines, as he raised his slash to .325/.431/.627 in 102 plate appearances. The strong performance with the Isotopes earned him a late season call up to the Dodgers, but his tenure was mostly irrelevant, as he played in only 7 games and hit .154 in 16 plate appearances.


Evaluation on Federowicz:

Offensively, he profiles mostly as replacement level or slightly above offensively, as he doesn't sport much power (his career high in home runs at any level was 10 in the Sally in 2009) and doesn't really hold much potential to hit for high average (the only times he hit over .300 was in the Sally and PCL). His ability to make contact is decent (he's been in the 76-88 mark in terms of contact percentage over his minor league career) and he does sport a good approach and eye at the plate (his BB/K ratio has been over 0.50 at every level since 2010), but his tools and ceiling don't rate as anything special.

Defensively is where Federowicz profiles well, as scouts have been high on his footwork behind the plate as well as his strong throwing arm. He threw out 37 percent of baserunners in Portland last year, and while that rate regressed to 22 percent in the PCL (though he only played 22 games), he still averaged a 33 percent rate between Portland and Albequerque in 2011. His career caught stealing rate is 33 percent, so it's obvious that Federowicz has the tools to be a very good defensive catcher at the Major League level.

With A.J. Ellis and Mike Treanor ahead of him at the Major League level, Federowicz will probably start the year back in the PCL in 2012, but should get a shot to compete for the starting job at some point this year. If he continues to hit Triple-A pitching in 2012 like he did in 2011, he could get more playing time than the seven game stint he saw last season.

Grade: C (I consider him to be a platoon/backup catcher at the Major League level for the most part, but if his offensive game can continue to improve, he could have a couple of seasons where he could be a starting catcher. Defensively, he profiles well, but his future as a Big Leaguer depends on how he handles the stick with the Dodgers.)


Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies



Age: 23
Signed: 2006 by Rolando Fernandez and Felix Feliz
Hometown: Bonao, Monsenor Nouel, Dominican Republic
2011 Regular Season Numbers: .249 average, .284 OBP, .457 slugging, 21 home runs, 19 walks, 91 strikeouts in 426 plate appearances (Double-A Tulsa); .204 average, .228 OBP, .463 slugging, three home runs, two walks, 20 strikeouts in 57 plate appearances.


Why is Rosario the Rockies' Best Catching Prospect?

A Top-30 prospect according to John Sickels last year (he was ranked the 28th prospect in baseball according to Sickel's 2011 list), Rosario is probably one of the highest rated offensive prospects in the Rockies system behind Nolan Arenado. Last year, Baseball America ranked Rosario as the second best prospect in the Rockies system and last year, Rob Gordon of the Minor League Baseball analyst rated him as the 37th best prospect in baseball.

However, despite the accolades and stellar season in Double-A in 2010, Rosario failed to build upon the hype in 2011. Even though it was his second campaign in the Texas League, he struggled to make consistent contact (78 percent contact rate; 21.4 percent strikeout rate) and showed serious flaws in his discipline and approach at the plate (0.21 BB/K ratio, a .16 decrease from the previous season). The same plate discipline problems continued in the Majors when he got a call up late in the year, as he struck out 20 times in 57 plate appearances while only walking twice (a 0.10 BB/K ratio).

While the strikeouts and lack of walks will always be something of concern for Rosario, he does still have a lot of upside as a prospect. Even with the regression in his second year in Tulsa in 2011, Rosario remains one of the Rockies' best position prospects. Baseball America rated him as the fourth best prospect in the Rockies System going into 2012, and the MiLBA rated him the third best prospect in the Rockies System and the fourth best catching prospect in baseball.


Evaluation on Rosario:

Rosario possesses two plus tools: his arm strength and power. In terms of arm strength, his success in terms of gunning down runners is dually noted, as he hasn't posted a throw-out rate below 38 percent since 2008 (his second season in Casper). Scouts note that not only does he have a cannon for an arm, but that his footwork and exchange are very clean as well. Defensively, Rosario does have some flaws, as his blocking ability could still use some work, and he could move laterally better, according to Baseball America. However at 23 years old, he still has time to develop his skills behind the plate as well as his game-calling (which will only get better with more experience).

What attracts scouts and experts the most about Rosario however, is definitely his hitting potential, specifically his power. Rosario has mashed over his minor league career, and despite all the flaws and letdowns of his 2011 season, his ability to hit the big fly with ease didn't regress in the slightest. He hit 21 home runs in Tulsa, and three home runs in 57 plate appearances with the Rockies. In addition, he also posted extra base hit rates of 39 percent and 63 percent in Double-A and the Majors, respectively. Scouts note that he has a short stroke, can hit Major League fastballs and has 30-home run potential at the Major League level.

Still though, much like Joseph in the Giants system, the big question with Rosario is whether or not he'll see enough hittable fastballs once pitchers start to adjust to his free-swinging ways. Rosario has an aggressive approach that sometimes borders on "too-aggressive" more often than not. Scouts and experts note that breaking balls give him a lot of trouble, and he tends to chase pitches outside the zone often. To make matters worse, he doesn't walk much, and has never walked much in the Minors (his best walk rate, 8.7 percent, came in his first season in the Pioneer League). If the strikeouts continue to be an issue in high minors and Majors, this could be a huge red flag because Rosario's approach will never result in him drawing enough walks to counter a lot of strikeouts (career high 0.42 BB/K ratio).

Rosario is far from perfect, but he's an impressive prospect nonetheless. In terms of the catching prospects in the NL West, his arm strength and power tools probably rank highest. That being said, his plate approach might be the worst (and Joseph isn't exactly Scott Hattesberg). At his age, there is still some time for Rosario to develop, and he could project into a more athletic Yadier or Bengie Molina, with even more home run potential. That being said, if his approach doesn't improve, his ceiling could be Miguel Olivo-esque.


Grade: B (I love the power and the arm strength, so I'm cutting him some slack despite the lackluster 2011 season overall; however, it will be a crucial year for him in 2012. Either he makes the step to being an All-Star caliber catcher this year, or he struggles and shows that he probably is destined for platoon or backup duty behind the plate.)


Yasmani Grandal, San Diego Padres



Age: 23
Drafted: 1st round (12th overall) in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Cincinnati Reds
College: University of Miami (FL)
Hometown: La Habana, Cuba
2011 Regular Season Stats: .296 average, .410 OBP, .510 slugging, 10 home runs, 41 walks, 57 strikeouts in 251 plate appearances (High-A Bakersfield); .301 average, .360 OBP, .474 slugging, 4 home runs, 13 walks, 39 strikeouts in 172 plate appearances (Double-A Carolina); .500 average, .667 OBP, .667 slugging, zero home runs, five walks, one strikeout in 18 plate appearances (Triple-A Louisville).

Why is Grandal the Padres Best Catching Prospect?

The former Cuban defector's future looked bleak, as he seemed blocked in the Reds system by the team's top prospect Devin Mesaroco, who is destined for the starting job at some point in 2012. However, the Padres took advantage of the Reds' system depth and lacking of pitching consistency at the Major League level, and Grandal came along with Yonder Alonso in a trade for Padres ace Mat Latos. Suddenly, Grandal went from the second-best catching prospect in his own system, to probably the best catching prospect in the NL West period.

Grandal played college ball at the University of Miami (he was teammates with Alonso) and was drafted 12th overall by the Reds in 2010. While he doesn't sport the power or athleticism of former "colleague" Mesaroco, Grandal does possess a strong ability to hit for average, a patient eye at the plate, and some sneaky (though not plentiful) slugging potential. Furthermore, Grandal does have some strong defensive skills behind the plate, as he has a solid, six-foot, two inch frame and an average to slightly-above average arm (he threw out 34 percent of baserunners last season). The numbers did show Grandal got better defensively in his call up to Double-A, as he allowed less passed balls (5 to 14 in High-A) and threw runners out at a better clip as well (36 percent to 34 percent in High-A). So, while he may not be a Gold Glover by any means, he certainly has the defensive potential to be a mainstay at the position for a long time.

While Nick Hundley is currently manning the position in 2012, and was recently inked to an extension by Padres management, the future clearly rests in Grandal's hands. Grandal did show some contact issues last year (his contact rate in Bakersfield was 72 percent, and in Carolina it was 75 percent), but he was above average in terms of making contact in college (84 percent) and he does have an excellent eye at the plate (17 percent walk rate, 0.72 BB/K ratio in Bakersfield). To me, those things should bode well for him as he most likely makes the move to Tucson and the Pacific Coast League to begin the 2012 season (expect a big breakout from him in Triple-A this year...that place is a bandbox).


Evaluation on Grandal:

There were rumors that Grandal was upset by the Hundley extension, but I think management is clearly in Grandal's camp. He is still only 23 years old, and he comes across as a polished college catching prospect who could be an All-Star at the Major League level (Gordon of the MiLBA graded him as a 9D prospect). Grandal may not have the arm strength of Rosario, but I think his defensive skills should be good enough considering his bat. He still needs more time and development in terms of calling games (an issue for most catchers coming out of college since college coaches mostly call the games), which could be the reason why he begins and may stay a majority of the year in Tucson. For that reason, it is understandable why the Padres inked Hundley to an extension, even though Grandal may have the more upside.

Offensively, I like his plate discipline, and his ability to use the whole field as a hitter. He is also a switch hitter, which should help him out at a spacious park like PETCO (which severely limits pull-heavy lefties as evidenced by Anthony Rizzo's struggles last season), but considering his power tool set as well as the environment of San Diego's home park, I would be surprised if he tops the 15 homer mark as a Big Leaguer. That being said, scouts say that he has a balanced approach that will bode well for him to hit for high average, so even if he may not produce the home runs, he could produce 2010 Buster Posey-esque lines in the future where he is producing a lot offensively for his position despite the fact that it isn't coming in terms of eye-popping slugging or home run numbers.


Grade: B+ (Hundley is the guy for now, but at some point Grandal will get his shot and I think he'll be the full-time guy by 2013 (Hundley to me will be trade bait this year). He is a talented overall catcher who is already polished, but still has some potential both offensively and defensively. I'll be interested to see how his offense will translate to PETCO, but for now, he'll just have to settle for putting up "MLB '99" numbers in Tucson and the PCL.)


NL West Catcher Prospect Rankings:

1. Grandal, Padres

• Grandal is the best overall catcher and most ready for the Big Leagues out of any catching prospect in the NL West. He may not have that one outstanding tool like some of the other catching prospects (specifically Rosario), but I think his tools are strong enough to the point where he could be an All-Star caliber catcher at the Major League level.

2. Rosario, Rockies

•  Rosario's probably holds the best power and arm strength tools out of any catcher prospect in the NL West (Grandal included), but his lack of plate discipline and regression in 2011 are a huge red flag. He still is young, and the potential and ceiling could still be quite high for Rosario in the future. That being said, there needs to be major progress in his approach if he wants to become anything more than an Olivo-esque player.

3. Joseph, Giants

• Because I did a profile on him on this blog, I didn't feel like there was much of a need to go into much detail on him in this post. (I mean, what else could I say that I didn't say before?) Joseph's may have the second best power tool set behind only Rosario, but like Rosario, his plate discipline is a Major question. Joseph did show improvements defensively in 2011, but his abilities still probably pale in comparison to the other catching prospects in the NL West, as a lot of experts are conceding the fact that he is going to make an eventual move to first base. If Joseph continues to progress from High-A to Double-A like he did from Low-A to High-A, then Joseph could be on the top of this board by next year. His age is definitely a plus in his favor (he'll be 20 years old this year).

3. Perez, Dimaondbacks

• The more I see Perez, the more I think "Miguel Montero-esque", but it's just way too early to say that definitively on Perez. He was just selected in last year's draft and he has only 25 professional plate appearances underneath his belt. Still though, he did sport a lot of power and arm strength potential in the Arizona Rookie League, and scouts seem high on his potential and athleticism behind the plate. Much like Joseph, with a strong season in his first full year of professional ball, Perez could rocket up this board, and it could be between him and Joseph for best catching prospect in the NL West in 2013.

5. Federowicz, Dodgers

• Erickson probably has more ceiling and don't be surprised to see Erickson on this list next year. For now though, Federowicz takes the cake as the Dodgers' best catching prospect and he is probably destined for backup or platoon status in the Major Leagues. He doesn't offer a lot of offensive upside, and while good defensively, he doesn't project as spectacular by any stretch of the imagination. Federowicz could be very valuable for the Dodgers in the future and even as soon as this year (especially with mediocre options like Ellis and Treanor ahead of him in the Bigs).

Spring Training Notes: Ortiz Released, Journeymen Re-Assigned and Belt OTF?

With Opening Day (well...the official one, unless you count today's games in Japan as Opening Day) officially begins next week, which means we're winding down in Scottsdale. So, as with anything winding down, there is some new swirling around Giants camp as the rosters start to get finalized. Safe to say, there probably is a lot more on the horizon for the Giants in the next couple of days.

Here are a few of the most recent tidbits that deal with Giants prospects/minor league players.


-- According to Hank Schulman of the SF Chronicle, the Giants released journeyman right handed pitcher Ramon Ortiz. Ortiz pitched for the Fresno Grizzlies in 2010, but didn't get a callup at any point that season. Last year, Ortiz made his return back to the big leagues, making 22 appearances for the Cubs while posting an ERA of 4.86 in 33.1 IP. Despite his experience and arm (he averaged 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings last year with the Cubs), it was a longshot that Ortiz would break camp with the Major League team, let alone see any playing time at the Major League level at any point this season. With the Giants depth in the starting rotation and bullpen, the chips were heavily stacked against Ortiz this Spring. Chances are though he will catch on with another team at some point this year, most likely with a team that is in more need of pitching or bullpen depth.

-- Also, Schulman reported that the Giants re-assigned Andrew Kown, Brian Burres, Wilmin Rodriguez, and Shane Loux to Minor League camp. All of them were non-roster invitees, so the decision on these guys doesn't really come as a surprise. Rodriguez had the most impressive Spring of the bunch, as he posted a 1.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in six appearances and 5.1 innings of work. He also recorded a save and struck out five batters while allowing four hits and no walks. Of all the listed guys above with an outside chance to somehow sneak on the 40-man roster this year, I think Rodriguez has the best shot, especially with Dan Runzler's health a major question mark this year.

-- Much to this writer's dismay, Brandon Belt may start the year in Fresno despite a stellar spring (he was hitting .380 with three home runs going into today's game), according to Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area (and formerly the SJ Mercury). Giants hitting coach Hensley Meulens had this to say in Baggarly's piece about Belt's performance at the plate this Spring:

“He’s way out in front of the batter’s box,” Meulens said. “It works for him, but want to make sure he’s getting the bat head out on those pitches middle-in and not just trying to flare it to left-center. We’re on the back field using drills so he can create that feel. When his elbow goes out, the barrel actually flattens and it takes a longer time to get the bat out in front."

My big issue with this is that I understand Belt may not put up the .380 mark in the Majors this year like he has been doing this Spring. That is unrealistic of course, and I think he would probably be a .250-.270 hitter with a .340-.360 OBP and .420-.450 slugging. However, Belt really has nothing else to prove in Fresno (he mashed last year), and he offers a lot more value to the Giants other than just offense (he is a huge defensive upgrade over Aubrey Huff). It's just sad that the Giants are being so cautious with him, because I think he came on toward the end of the year after the Giants stopped sending him down to Fresno and back up to San Francisco like one of those crazy, flashing Yo-Yo's. Hopefully, Belt will get an extended shot at first for the Giants at some point this year and can prove to the Giants he's the best option for the Giants not only for the future, but for the present as well.

Prospect Highlight: Wendell Fairley, OF

With the recent news of former No. 1 overall pick Matt Bush being involved in another alcohol-induced incident, it got me thinking "Who are some high round picks in the Giants system that have really fallen off the past couple of seasons?" The two names that came to mind were Wendell Fairley and Michael Main (whom I'll be covering in another post). Bush has had serious makeup problems since he was drafted, and to be honest, while he has flashed good numbers as a converted pitcher (he used to play shortstop, but hit so poorly the Padres decided to switch him positions), I think his makeup problems (specifically alcohol issues) will prevent him from reaching even a modicum of his potential.

(On a side note: I don't understand why this guy has been given so many chances at this point in his career. This was a guy who was arrested at a high school because he showed up drunk, threatened high school kids and then was caught on video camera screaming and crying hysterically as police arrested him. Why would any team touch him, let alone two teams with very smart general managers in the driver's seats? (Though to be fair, Toronto booted him after he broke their zero-tolerance policy they agreed upon when he signed with the Jays; at this point, I think Tampa is probably going to follow suit, especially since they already have some heat on them from acquiring Josh Lueke, a pitcher who allegedly raped someone. Having Lueke, and a guy who apparently hit and run a 72-year-old man on a motorcycle while drunk on the same roster would be a PR nightmare, and Tampa has enough problems drawing fans to the park.)

But, to my knowledge, Fairley and Main's issues have simply been ineffectiveness at the professional level, so at least they have that going for them, unlike Bush. That being said, they did come as highly touted picks, and they have hardly lived up to their Draft Day press clippings during their minor league careers so far. Can 2012 be a break out for the both of them, where they finally capture at least SOME of the hype that made them such highly merited first round choices? Or are these two probably destined to be fringe prospects in the Billy Rowell-mold?

Let's take a look at Fairley in this post. I'll try to take a stab at Main in one of the next ones sometime this weekend.


Wendell Fairley, outfielder



Age: 24
Minor League service time: Three years.
Highest level played: Double-A (Richmond)
Career minor league stat line: .263 average, .347 OBP, .334 slugging, .681 OPS, 167 runs scored, eight home runs, 24 stolen bases in 367 games and 1,419 plate appearances. 
Overall Grade: C-/D+ (Leaning more toward latter grade though)
Projection: Backup outfielder; maybe career minor league player.


Why Has Fairley Been Disappointing?

When drafted in the Giants' pick-heavy 2007 draft, many felt that the Giants got a good steal with Fairley in the 29th slot. Keith Law remarked that Fairley had middle-of-the-first round potential in the draft, but went lower because of signability and some makeup issues (apparently, he had a kid when he was a senior in high school, which to be honest, isn't really all that uncommon with a lot of athletes). A lot of the reports on Fairley were very sterling, as scouts raved about his "five tool" potential as well his athleticism. According to OGC's draft day profile on Fairley, scouts remarked that he had "the ability to hit for average and plus power" and that he was a "plus runner" and had defensive skills "perfect for center field."

However, there were some concerns about Fairley's game from people, even on draft day. For starters, Fairley was a two sport athlete in high school who also concentrated heavily on football (he was widely recruited by colleges as a wide receiver), and hence, he wasn't as widely known by scouts because of his dual-sport commitments. Also, while sporting "five tool" potential, many experts and people in the Giants organization (even Brian Sabean) admitted that he was very raw and that it would take some time for him to develop into those tools. Still, despite some concerns, the vibe surrounding Fairley's selection was overall very positive, as said in OGC's post:

"He sounds like the best position prospect that we have had in ages (well, at least before Villalona; won't they make a nice pair of call-ups in 4-6 years, or less?) and he helps makes up for the fact that we passed up a few premier position talents in Dominguez, Heyward, and Mills, particularly Heyward since I've seen a number of descriptions of him being remniscent of Willie McCovey. He's noted as a Top 10-15 pick by talent so he's equivalent enough to them to satisfy me - and I do like Bumgarner and Alderson and the fact that Sabean and Tidrow both noted that they are on the fast track and could advance to the majors in as short as 2 years, so despite them not being college players, they could provide return to the Giants in perhaps even a shorter timeframe, few prospects make the majors in 6 years, let alone 2 years. And there's no way the Giants would have gotten anyone as good as Bumgarner in the 29th pick had they selected any of those three hitters."

Despite the lofty praise and excitement, Fairley's high point seemed to be draft day and it's been downhill since. He held his own in 52 games in the Arizona Rookie League in 2008, posting a .363 wOBA, but his wOBA was mostly helped by a .388 OBP and a BB/K ratio of 0.70. In terms of actually hitting the ball, his numbers were very mediocre, as he hit only .259 and posted a slugging of .337 with only two home runs in 238 plate appearances. So, while Fairley did show a good approach at the plate his first season in Rookie Ball, his lackluster ability to hit for average or show any power in Arizona was a bit of a warning sign.

All that came into fruition in his first two full years of professional ball. In Single-A Augusta in 2009, he posted a slash of .243/.323/.333 in 390 plate appearances. Not only did he show little ability to hit for average or power in the Sally (only one more home run despite 152 more plate appearances), but he didn't showcase any of the speed that made scouts grade him a "plus runner" on draft day (only two stolen bases on six attempts). While he did pick it up offensively in San Jose in 2010, improving his slash to .292/.362/.343 in 440 plate appearances, the complete lack of power (one home run all year) and questionable baserunning skills (10 stolen bases on 16 attempts) made him an afterthought in most Giants prospects lists.

The Giants had him repeat the year in San Jose in 2011, and though he struggled in his second Cal League campaign (he posted a .245/.329/.317 slash in 242 plate appearances), the Giants still promoted him to Richmond toward the end of the year. Despite the change to the pitcher-friendly environments of the Eastern League, Fairley actually performed a lot better in the EL in 2011 than in the CL, posting a slash of .265/.321/.337 with a .657 OPS in 109 plate appearances. Still though, 2011 provided more of the same: a lot of empty singles and not much extra on the basepaths (only five stolen bases the whole year).

When you look at him in person, Fairley seems to have an athletic presence, but he doesn't 'wow' you in the way a typical "five tool" type would. He's not blazing, his frame isn't incredibly strong looking, and his swing is very constricted and illustrates why he has never posted a slugging in the .400 range over his career. He has a slap hitter's swing that makes him a groundball machine. One would hope that management and instruction has tried to work with him on this, but after four years, one has to wonder how much has been taught and how much has changed. From what I've seen from when he first started playing professional ball, not a lot has progressed in terms of swing mechanics, which makes me think Fairley's power ceiling and ability to hit extra base hits will sort of stay where it is (i.e. very low).


Is There Still Hope for Fairley?

To be honest, Fairley is one of those prospects that's really hanging on the edge right now in terms of projection. If I have to guess where he ends up, I would probably say he's a career minor leaguer with maybe a backup or utility role in the outfield being his ceiling at this point. He doesn't hit for average, doesn't hit for power, doesn't steal bases, doesn't play excellent defense (he projects more as a corner infielder at this point) and doesn't exactly have the best eye at the plate (though he does seem to adjust with more exposure to pitching, as his BB/K ratio improved in his second year in San Jose). All those are factors that are heavily working against his potential and chances in terms of being a Major League player.

However, to be honest, his slash lines haven't been as bad as I initially thought, and Giants fans had to expect Fairley to struggle like this to start out his career. He was so raw when he was drafted that to expect him to come out and mash would be foolish.Yes, the power and speed hasn't developed as well as hoped, but the averages and OBP numbers still give glimmers of hope that he can have some kind of utility for the Giants organization in the future. The glimmer is small and unlikely to project into anything, but to say Fairley is done at 24 years old and after only four seasons (including only 34 games in Double-A) would be a bit rash at this point.

There is a lot for Fairley to overcome. To be honest, there are a lot more outfield prospects in the lower minors levels of the Giants system who are younger and with more upside than Fairley at this point, so he has to do a lot to hold them. Minor injuries have seemed to take its toll on Fairley over his career, as was the case last year where he was limited to only 95 games. So, if Fairley can stay healthy and be somewhat effective in Richmond again, there is hope that he can rebound his status as a prospect in 2012. He won't jump up on any Top 30 lists going into 2013, but if he can have a bounce back year where he can post a .270/.340/.380-esque slash, then Fairley will suddenly be an interesting prospect again in the Giants system and not just the "first round" bust he's been known as the past couple of seasons.

Spring Training Notes: Adrianza and Peguero Optioned to Fresno, Villalona to SJ

While these aren't exactly new, I forgot to include them on the last post of Spring Training notes, so I figured it would be good to include them for those who weren't aware. I was just scanning the Minor League transactions blog of Baseball America and I uncovered these tidbits on the Giants.

-- This happened during the week of March 7-12th, but the Giants optioned shortstop Ehire Adrianza and outfielder Francisco Peguero to Triple-A Fresno to start the 2012 season.

-- The decision to have Adrianza start in Fresno is a bold maneuver by Giants management. Adrianza hasn't played above High-A ball (sans a couple game stint in Fresno his first year) in his minor league career, and it was widely assumed that the defensive-oriented shortstop would most likely begin the year in Double-A Richmond. However, the Giants must have liked his defensive abilities, because his batting stat line was anything but impressive this Spring, as he only played 5 games and had 3 at-bats. In those at-bats, he struck out twice and recorded no hits. While he may start the year with the Grizzlies, I would be mighty surprised to see Adrianza stick in the PCL the whole season.

-- Peguero hasn't seen much time with the Major League club this Spring, as it seems like he has mostly been in Minor League camp if you look at the stat line (he has no recorded offensive or defensive stats on the Giants' Spring Training site). The only note I have of Peguero is the fact that he threw out A's catcher Derek Norris in a game (most likely a Minor League one). This decision to have him begin in Triple-A is a mild surprise, since I thought the Giants might start him in Richmond after he only played half a season there. That being said, the Giants must have felt his performance in Double-A was good enough, and warranted a promotion to the PCL.

-- Lastly, the Giants optioned first base prospect Angel Villalona to High-A San Jose this week. This also doesn't come as a surprise considering Villalona has been unable to acquire a visa from the U.S. consulate this Spring. It was first reported that he was approved and that he would be able to make it for Spring Training, but due to some physical issues, it has been delayed and Villalona has been stuck in the Dominican Republic this whole Spring Training. Villalona last played in San Jose in 2009, so even if he did make it for some workouts this Spring, I think High-A ball was going to be his most likely destination anyways considering he hasn't played professionally since 2009.

Spring Training Notes: Cuts and a Look at the Giants Prospects This Spring

So, I figure with Opening Day and with final roster cuts coming up, it would be a good time to see who has done well and who has struggled this Spring out of the prospects invited to Spring Training. Here are a few points in "bullet form."

-- As noted in the title, the Giants made another round of cuts, optioning pitcher Hector Correa and outfielder Tyler Graham to Triple-A to Fresno (title of the blog alert!). The news on those two isn't too much of a surprise considering the Giants bullpen and outfield is pretty crowded as it is, and those two were long shots to make the 25-man this Spring. Correa struck out three in 2.1 innings of work, while also allowing one run on three hits and two walks. While Graham impressed with his abilities in the field, he never could get comfortable at the plate this Spring, as he only had two hits and one walk in 15 at-bats.

-- The Giants also made some assignments to Minor League camp last Sunday. On the list were infielders Chris Dominguez and Nick Noonan, catcher Jackson Williams, outfielder Juan Perez, and pitchers Matt Yourkin, Mitch Lively and Justin Fitzgerald.

-- The most impressive performer of the bunch was Perez, who posted a slash of  .455/.538/.909 in nine games and 11 at-bats with the Giants Spring club. He also added a home run, a triple and a stolen base to his stat total this Spring. The Spring is a nice sign for Perez who is coming off a down year in Richmond where he posted a slash of .256/.303/.381 in 497 plate appearances. The previous season, Perez gained some steam as an under the radar prospect after hitting .298 with an .809 OPS in 596 plate appearances with the San Jose Giants. While he is a bit of an older prospect (he's going to be 25 this year), Perez has some very Andres Torres-esque qualities in the sense that he has good speed (22 stolen bases a year ago) and some pop for a guy of his diminutive stature. Whether he starts in Richmond or Fresno, I think Perez could have a bounce back year in 2012, and this Spring was certainly a good sign for such a breakout.

-- On March 16th, the Giants sent top prospect Gary Brown to Minor League camp. Though he is the consensus No. 1 Giants prospect on most experts' lists and a Top-50 prospect in baseball, the move isn't a surprise considering Brown's highest level of play is the Cal League. With Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera being acquired this off-season, and with Gregor Blanco's hot spring, Brown's shot of making the 25-man roster was very slim and unlikely to begin with. In seven games with the Big League squad this Spring, Brown had two hits in 11 at-bats, both singles. While he did have a stolen base, he was caught stealing twice on three attempts. One of the big things Brown needs to work on is being more efficient on the basepaths, as he was caught 19 times last year. With his 80 scout grade speed, that is just way too much. Hopefully the Giants worked with him on some things this Spring that will make him more efficient this upcoming season.

-- Of the non-roster invitee prospects in the Giants system, the biggest performer had to be Tommy Joseph, who had two home runs in nine at-bats with the Giants Spring club. He also showed a solid eye at the plate, walking twice and only striking out once. Considering that his biggest weakness as a hitter was the questionable plate discipline, this Spring was an encouraging sign for him this upcoming year as he makes the move from the Cal to the Eastern League.

-- In terms of pitching prospects, the results have been a little mixed. Eric Surkamp was expected to battle for the fifth spot in the Giants' rotation, but he hasn't stood out amazingly this Spring. While he has displayed flashes of the command that made him such a great prospect in the Cal and Eastern League (he has struck out 11 and only walked 3 in 11.1 innings of work), he has still proven to be too hittable when facing Major League hitters. He allowed 13 hits and six runs in four appearances and two starts this year. It is likely that he will start the year in Fresno.

-- On the other end, Heath Hembree came on with a fury this Spring, striking out seven in five innings of work while only walking one and allowing two hits and a run. With Brian Wilson showing some arm issues this Spring, Hembree made a case why he should be considered in the Giants bullpen as soon as this year. If Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt or Javier Lopez show any signs of struggle, don't be surprised to see Hembree get a call up to the big league roster sooner rather than later. He may be the third best right handed reliever on the Giants roster behind Wilson and Sergio Romo.

OTF Top 30: No. 11-15; Culberson, Gillaspie, Mejia, Blackburn, Osich

So it's been 11 days since my last post. It's been a weird month, and it's been hard to just find time to really sit down and post (not to mention tweet). For the sake of time interests, I've decided to streamline the rankings profiles a bit now. First off, I would like to have as many of the rankings up before Opening Day. Secondly, when you get deeper and deeper in the rankings, less and less information is available, so it's harder to come up with as in-depth profiles like the ones in the Top-10.

Hopefully, the posting will be a little more consistent from here on out.


No. 11: Charlie Culberson, Second Base

Overall Grade: C+
Projection: Utility infielder; at best, starting second base. At worst, career backup.

Summary: Culberson, the former supplemental round pick (2007 Draft), has had an up and down career as an infielder in the Giants system. Originally drafted as a shortstop, inconsistent defense forced a move from the position after the 2008 season in Augusta (he ended up playing third base in 2009 with the Green Jackets, until he ended up settling at Second Base in San Jose). The main problem with Culberson's defense is that he is too error prone, as he committed 75 errors in between his two campaigns in the Sally in 2009 and 2010. That being said, the move to second base has been worthwhile, as he has only committed 28 errors the past two years at the Keystone in San Jose and Richmond, which has improved his fielding percentages to .975 and .978 the past two years (in comparison, his fielding percentages in Augusta were .901 and .900, respectively).

Offensively, things started slow for Culberson, as the Sally seemed to overwhelm him as a hitter just out of high school. In two stints with the Green Jackets, he posted OPS numbers of .599 and .598, and he displayed little power (312.5 average slugging in Augusta), ability to hit for average (.240 batting average in two seasons in Single-A) and a poor approach at the plate (0.31 average BB/K ratio in Augusta). Much like fellow 2007 pick Wendell Fairley, many people felt that Culberson simply didn't have the offensive skills to project into a Major League player.

However, in 2010, Culberson broke out in all kinds of ways in the California League. He improved defensively with the transition to second base, becoming at least average defensively at the position. The biggest improvement though came offensively, as he hit 16 home runs, and posted a slash of .290/.334/.457 in 503 at-bats in San Jose. While the plate approach was still skeptical (0.33 BB/K ratio), the increased power (career high .167 ISO) as well as speed on the basepaths (25 stolen bases), gave some scouts and experts that Culberson could have 20-20 home run-stolen base potential in the mold of Dustin Pedroia, or at the very least 15-15 potential.

Of course, as mentioned before on this blog, Cal League stats always have to be taken with a grain of salt. While he did follow up his Cal League dominance with an excellent showing in the Arizona Fall League (he posted a .366/.394/.591 slash with two home runs and 21 runs scored in 99 plate appearances with the Scorpions), the Eastern League pitching proved to be dominating for him to replicate his High-A numbers. He regressed to post a slash of .259/.287/.382 in 553 at-bats, and his plate approach suffered, as he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.17, a career low.

While some would write off Culberson completely, I was actually a little comforted in some ways by his 2011 campaign in Richmond, and still hold some hope that he can turn into a good Major League player in a year or two. First off, he was still two years younger than the competition in the Eastern League (average hitter's age is 24), and while is power regressed, it didn't fall off a cliff like some hitters who make the transition from the Cal to the Eastern League. He still hit 10 home runs, and his ISO only dipped 44 points, not terrible considering his previous high ISO in the Sally was .085. He also made the Eastern League All-Star team, an honor that displayed that his season wasn't downright terrible by any stretch of the imagination.

What to Expect in 2012: It's tough to gauge where Culberson will be in 2012. An early injury in the beginning of work outs has kept him out of Spring Training so far, and it's likely that he won't be ready until the end of Spring Training as well. There was some hope that with a good Spring, Culberson could have made the transition to Triple-A to start the year. Now, it looks like he'll be in extended Spring Training and most likely starting out the year in Double-A again. While starting out in Double-A could be a good thing, Culberson needs to make some kind of transition upward this year, either to Triple-A (the most likely scenario) or to the Majors. The latter is probably a stretch, especially when you consider Mike Fontenot, Ryan Theirot and Emmanuel Burriss are ahead of him on the organizational depth chart at the Major League and Triple-A level. However, there needs to be a sign of improvement and a leap of some sort for Culberson as a prospect in 2012. While he is still only 23 years old, this will be his sixth full season as a professional. If he cannot build off the campaign in Richmond a year ago, it's probably likely to think that Culberson won't amount to much at the Major League level. If he does, then he and Joe Panik could be battling for the keystone position when Sanchez leaves town.


No. 12: Conor Gillaspie, Third Base

Overall Grade: C+
Projection: Utility infielder/outfielder; could start at third base or a corner outfield position in right situation.

Summary: Originally a highly heralded supplemental round pick in the 2008 draft (he was the Giants' second pick after Buster Posey), Gillaspie's career has started slow, but really picked up the past two seasons. After getting a peek at the Major League level in 2008 shortly after being drafted (a Major League callup was written into his contract in order for him to sign at a lower bonus), Gillaspie struggled in all areas of his game in 2009 in San Jose. He committed 27 errors at third base in 116 games, and he only posted a slash of .286/.364/.386 in 530 plate appearances. Despite the hitter-friendly environments, Gillaspie displayed little to no power ability in his first full year, as he only hit four home runs and posted a measly ISO of .100.

While the lack of power or defensive ability hurt his stock greatly in 2009, he did display a solid eye at the plate (0.81 BB/K ratio) and a strong ability to make contact (86 percent contact rate). When he made the transition to the Eastern League in 2010, he was able to transition those skills for the most part. While his BB/K ratio dipped a little, it still remained above average at 0.55, and his contact percentage remained unchanged at 86 percent. Furthermore, one of the reasons for the dip in BB/K ratio was he increased his aggressiveness at the plate, which resulted in a lower walk rate (from 10 to 7 percent), but increased power (.132 ISO). In fact, he doubled his home run total from the Cal League in the Eastern League (from 4 to 8), and his slugging and OPS numbers both improved from San Jose as well (to .420 and .757). Considering most prospects' power numbers go the opposite direction in the transition from the CL to the EL, the improvement was a promising sign that Gillaspie wasn't finished yet.

2011 proved to be Gillaspie's best year as a professional, as he posted his best overall numbers as a Minor Leaguer in Fresno. He hit 11 home runs and posted a slash of .297/.391/.453 with an OPS of .844. His contact rate dipped to 82 percent, but he posted career highs in walk percentage at 13 percent, BB/K ratio at 0.84, and ISO at .157. His stellar campaign with the Grizzlies earned him a callup to the Big Leagues, and he held his own in 19 at-bats, posting a slash of .263/.333/.421 with two walks, only one strikeout, and five hits, including an inside the park home run.

What to Expect in 2012: Gillaspie doesn't hold much room for projection at 24 years old. He is a polished offensive player that displays a strong ability to make contact and a great eye at the plate. However, while his power has started to develop since that lackluster 2009 campaign in San Jose, his upside probably remains at 10-15 home runs a year, and he doesn't offer much speed on the basepaths or athleticism on the field to boot. This proves to be a problem, because defensively, he doesn't really project to be more than a corner infielder or outfielder, and he certainly doesn't have the power tool set to justify consistent playing time at the positions. Gillaspie could be a player in the Bill Mueller-mold (corner infielder who gets on-base and hits for average despite wielding below-average power for their position), but those kinds of players tend to be very rare, and get even fewer opportunities. At the same time, Gillaspie most likely will (and should) get some more playing time at the Major League level in 2012 (though, most likely, he will start the year in Fresno barring injury to someone this Spring). Hopefully, he'll get some more playing time at other positions in Triple-A to maximize his value when he gets the call up some point this year.


No. 13: Adalberto Mejia, Left-handed pitcher

Overall grade: C+
Projection: No. 2-3 starting pitcher.

Summary: A Dominican bonus baby who was signed for $350,000 in 2011 by scout Pablo Peguero (who was also responsible for signing outfielders Francisco Peguero and Rafael Rodriguez), Mejia is still a project of sorts who is a long ways away in terms of being fully developed. Furthermore, while he does offer some upside, at his age and where he's at in his professional career, he still carries considerable risk as a prospect (Baseball America, which ranked him 26 in their prospect handbook, graded his risk factor as extreme).

However, Mejia simply dominated as a pitcher in the Dominican Summer League, most likely earning himself a ticket to the Arizona Rookie League and/or Short-Season Salem Keizer this year. While DSL stats can't be taken too seriously (any rookie league numbers should always be taken with a grain of salt), Mejia displayed impeccable control for an 18 year old who had just signed that season. He only allowed eight walks in 76 innings pitched, good for a walk percentage of 0.9 and a K/BB ratio of 8.9. Just to compare, Joan Gregorio, a right handed prospect who has been ranked higher than Mejia on most lists, allowed nine more walks (17) in two less innings pitched when he threw in the DSL in 2011, and posted a K/BB ratio 6.5 points lower than Mejia (2.4). So, while the numbers can't be weighted too heavily, one can't dismiss Mejia's advanced approach completely either.

Tools wise, Mejia is still raw, as he throws a fastball that goes in the 87-91 MPH range that touches 92 MPH. Furthermore, he has a decent changeup and is working on his slider, which right now is still more of a slurve, according to reports from Baseball America. That being said, he is still 18 and growing into his Six-foot, three inch frame. As he gets older and exposed to more professional instruction when he makes the transition stateside, it is likely that his pitching repertoire and ability will get better. His approach has already received good marks, so the Giants will be starting with an already solid foundation.


What to Expect in 2012: Mejia is still years away from the Big Leagues, and with most Latin American prospects, his future could go either way. Just judging from his numbers and the early reports, Mejia has that upside to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, though he probably doesn't have the front line stuff or size to be a No.1 (though as stated before, he could gain more velocity as he continues to develop physically). I expect the Giants to take things conservatively with Mejia, and I don't really see him pitching beyond the Northwest League in 2012. However, if he continues to transition his command and control to the states, I wouldn't be surprised to see him be more of a riser in more prospect lists going into 2013.


No. 14 Clayton Blackburn, right-handed pitcher

Overall Grade: C+
Projection: No. 2/3 Starter; reliever at worst

Summary: Drafted in the 16th round of the 2011 draft, the prep arm out of Oklahoma (the same state that produced top picks Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley in the 2011 draft) probably had the biggest pitching breakout out of the Giants' picks in 2011 (Joe Panik had the biggest breakout overall).

After signing, Blackburn made his debut in the Arizona Rookie League, and much like Mejia in the DSL, Blackburn displayed impeccable command and control for an 18 year old. In 33 innings pitched, he struck out 30 and walked only 3 batters total. (That's right, Three!) In addition, he only gave up 4.6 hits per nine innings and posted a BB/K ratio of 10. While it was only a 33 inning sample in Rookie ball, the stellar campaign had a lot of experts around the web and league wondering why Blackburn didn't go higher in the 2011 draft (though to be fair to other teams, it did seem like he was for sure going to honor his commitment to the University of Oklahoma going into the draft).

At six-foot, three inches and 220 pounds, his frame hints at front line rotation potential, or at the very least, middle of the rotation status. He has a four pitch arsenal, sporting a 90-93 MPH fastball, a good curve ball, and a slider and changeup, according to Rob Gordon of the MiLBA. Furthermore, while he didn't blow hitters away totally in his stint, Blackburn has excellent life on his pitches, and induces groundballs at an impressive rate (his GO/AO was 2.58 in 2011).

The main concern right now with Blackburn seems to be his size, for at 220 pounds, he is a bit on the heavy side, and isn't particularly athletic. Baseball America notes that he'll have to watch his conditioning in order to maintain and build stamina as a starting pitcher, especially as he makes the transition to full-season ball.


What to Expect in 2012: Blackburn is a big, young, high-ceiling arm that fits the mold of many former pitching prospects in the Giants organization (i.e. Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner). While he doesn't have the upside of supplemental round pick Kyle Crick, Blackburn is a legitimate pitching prospect who has an advanced feel and repertoire for somebody his age. He most likely will begin the year in Low-A Augusta, which probably is the right track for him considering his youth. As noted before, his conditioning and stamina will be key things to keep an eye on in 2012, for a lot of his value is tied to him being a starter. If he can't keep the stamina to be a starting pitcher over a full year, his stock will take a hit. That being said, I am confident that he will stay in shape, and he could have a solid year in the Green Jackets' rotation in 2012.


No. 15: Josh Osich, Left-handed pitcher

Overall grade: C+
Projection: No. 4-5 starter; reliever

Summary: A sixth round pick, Osich had the makings of a first or second round draft choice going into the 2011 draft. However, Tommy John surgery in 2010, and arm concerns at the end of his 2011 season at Oregon State, scared off a lot of teams, and the Giants came in and swooped him up in the sixth round. Though he didn't play professionally last year, Osich did sign for $450,000 and passed a physical, so as of now, everything points to Osich being healthy and ready for the 2012 season.

As a pitcher, Osich had stretches of dominance during his time with the Beavers. He threw a no-hitter against powerhouse UCLA in 2011, and struck out 79 batters in 76.4 innings pitched his junior season. While he did post an ERA of 3.64 in 2011, his BB/K ratio remained decent at 2.32, and he only allowed 62 hits the entire year as well. Considering this was his first year coming off TJ surgery, and he couldn't really throw his breaking stuff due to the surgery, the numbers were a promising sign.

Right now, the big dilemma for the Giants is whether to break in Osich as a reliever or starter. Though he started in college and has starting potential, his injury concerns (he was pulled from an NCAA regional game in 2011 after one inning) probably will regulate Osich to the bullpen at least initially. Osich sports a three pitch arsenal, with a 92-95 MPH fastball that has been rated as four plus by Rob Gordon, and a slider and changeup. Baseball America noted that he didn't throw the slider very much last year due to injury concerns, and hence, that could have been the reason it wasn't graded very highly or very effective in 2011. Now that he has had a full year of play since TJ, it wouldn't be surprising to see his breaking stuff, especially his slider, become a more valuable part of his arsenal as a professional.


What to Expect in 2012: I am a big fan of Osich. I did a profile write-up on him going into the 2012 draft pick, and I thought he was worth spending a second round pick on, if available. The fact that the Giants got him in the sixth round to me is a steal (though as noted, we did spend second round money on him with his signing bonus). The health issues are a concern of course, but Osich has very good stuff and I think his secondary pitches will be even better now that he will be two years removed from TJ surgery that cost him his 2010 college season. I think the Giants will take things slow with him and start him in the bullpen, and in the Sally, just to be on the safe side. Though to be frank, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him pitch in High-A ball, simply due to his status as a high-round, college prospect.