Prospect Highlight: Angel Villalona, 1B

I got this idea from OGC, who commented on the update post, and I figured, ever certain number of posts in the Top 30 prospect list I would highlight a certain player who merits some discussion. These posts won't be as long as the Top 30 profiles, but they are pieces to highlight certain players who should still be focused on by Giants fans in 2012.


Why is Angel Villalona Highlighted?

Villalona is probably one of the most interesting stories in the Giants minor league system. In Augusta of 2006, the Giants awarded the 16 year old Villalona with a $2.1 million signing bonus, the highest in team history for an international signing at the time (it would later be surpassed by Rafael Rodriguez). Villalona at the time was considered a man among boys: he had tremendous power, and many experts felt that Villalona could develop into an All-Star calibur player who would regularly hit 30-plus home runs at the Major League level. However, toward the end of the 2009 season, Villalona was charged with murder in his home country, the Dominican Republic. Though charges against him were eventually dropped, his visa was revoked, and Villalona spent two years away from organized baseball. Despite the uncertainty of his future, the Giants still placed Villalona on the 40-man roster at the end of this year (most likely to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft).



What Makes Villalona Interesting?

Villalona has plus power and that was evident in his stints in the lower minors early in his career. He hit 17 home runs in 2008 in Augusta and posted a slugging percentage of .435 as well. While the numbers aren't eye-popping, he did this as a 17 year old, so the fact that he was able to hit with as much power as he did as a teenager against competition 2-4 years older than him is impressive. While his power did decrease in the hitter-friendly California League (his home runs dropped to 9 and slugging dipped under .400 to .397 in 310 plate appearances), he was still considerably young for the league (only 18 in a league which average 22-23 years of age), and did deal with some minor injuries that limited him to almost 200 less plate appearances from the previous season.

Furthermore, the reports from some of the coaches in the organization about Villalona initially were very positive, which gave some hope that despite the average numbers, he was progressing on the right track to stardom. The reports detailed him as a hardworking guy who was showing signs (though inconsistent) of improvement, especially over the course of seasons (e.g. he improved at the plate with more and more at-bats). Here's what Augusta manager Andy Skeels said about Villalona after the 2008 season:

"You come out of Spring Training and they're so young and never experienced a full season, so you don't know what you're going to get. For someone that young, it's a testament to what our staff did and a testament to the kind of kid Angel is. He's a tremendous talent and he dedicated himself much better to becoming a professional."

What keeps Villalona out of the Top 30?

On potential alone, Villalona could be a Top 30 prospect. He was a Top 50 prospect in baseball as recently as 2009. His power tool is that good. Unfortunately, the question of whether or not he is going to play this year stateside only compounds to an already big laundry list of factors working against him as a prospect. Originally billed as a highly athletic, "five tool" potential player out of the DR at the time of his signing, Villalona proved as soon as his first year in professional ball that he was probably a three tool player at best. He didn't have as much speed as expected, and defensively he proved to be nothing special at any level (in two of his three seasons RTZ, or Total Zone Fielding Runs, rated his defense as below average).

In addition to a lack of speed and questionable defense, Villalona had major conditioning issues, as his weight ballooned to the point where the Giants brass moved Villalona from third to first after his first full year in Rookie ball and the Northwest League. While a move from third to first base was also probably the best due to his defensive ability, it certainly hurt his status as a prospect, since his power is a premium for a third base prospect, but probably only above-average for a first base one.

While Villalona's hit tool and power tool have plus potential, his plate approach isn't (and that's putting it nicely). As a matter of fact, the biggest knock against Villalona as a prospect was his total lack of discipline and propensity for swinging at pitches badly out of the strike zone. In his three minor league seasons, his average OBP is .316 and his career BB/K ratio sits at 0.18 (which makes Francisco Peguero look like Kevin Youkilis by comparison). The main issue was his two-strike approach, as he seemingly swung at any and everything out of the strike zone. Add this with a lack of walks (only 42 career walks in 1047 plate appearances), and safe to say there were a lot of strikes against Villalona even before the murder incident occurred.


Can Villalona Improve?

I would like to say "Yes," though I do so with some reservations. I am an optimistic guy and I feel like Villalona should have a new spin on his career after such a life-altering incident. I know Osvaldo Martinez in the White Sox (previously Marlins) had a bit of a career turn-around after he was involved in a shooting in his native Puerto Rico (he was the victim though). I'm hoping Villalona can do the same and really take the bull by the horns after almost losing everything.

That being said, the odds are against Villalona. He's had two years away from the states, and his youth, one of the biggest factors working for him as a prospect, is essentially gone. With two lost minor league seasons, he now has to spend a year (maybe even two) to just get reacquainted with the game again. Also, how in shape Villalona is will be a big issue, since it was a problem when he was here stateside. After two years away from the game, it isn't likely that he's in pristine condition (though I do hope he's in at least decent shape, and despite the visa denial saying otherwise, I think he had kept okay care of himself, from reports I have read).

The Giants will need to be patient with Villalona as he works toward being a viable prospect in their system once again. He still is only 21 years old, so there is some time in his favor (though obviously not as much as before). Nonetheless, Villalona is a high risk, high reward kind of player, whose future is extremely murky at this point. So while he may have the potential to recapture the lofty status he once held, it is also highly possible that the Giants made a big mistake putting him on the 40-man roster (I don't think it was, considering how many players have turned into studs from the Rule 5 draft, but we'll see).

Whatever the future may hold for Villalona, it is unlikely that Giants fans will get a good idea of what his future projection will be after this year. Most likely, we won't know Villalona's true future projection for at least a couple of more seasons.

Some Changes to the OTF Top 30 List

I decided to make some changes to the Top-30 Prospects list. While I did put some time into my rankings, there were some rankings in retrospect I felt needed to be changed. Is it the most professional thing to do? Probably not, but I want to at least make a list that is accurate of my feeling for the organization's prospects. I think for now, I am pretty confident in this list and there won't be any further changes made.

Here's a list of the changes:

1.) The most notable change I made was moving Angel Villalona into the rankings at No. 30. To be honest, I wanted to put him here initially, but I withdrew because I wasn't even sure he'd be playing this year (So I went with the high upside, but still questionable pitcher Kendry Flores instead). Now that news has broken that he has received his work visa, I feel I can put him in now, especially since I think he is better prospect than Flores, despite the layoff. I do agree that it's a generous ranking and if you put a gun to my head, my initial thought would be that it is unlikely that he'll pan out as a grade C prospect. But remember, Villalona was a Top-50 prospect according to BA a few years ago, and he is still relatively young (he's only 21 years old), so there is some potential to salvage something with Villalona.

2.) I rose outfielder Francisco Peguero in the rankings to No. 7, and consequently increased his grade from a B- to a B. As much as I dislike the plate approach and the lack of walks, Pegeuro's tools rate too strong for him to be considered a B- prospect. I was tempted to put Peguero over Andrew Susac, but I feel Susac's position (catcher) gives him the advantage.

3.) Likewise, I dropped Kyle Crick to No. 8 and Eric Surkamp to No. 9. I decreased Crick's grade to a B-, while Surkamp's grade stayed the same at a B-. Another change I made was increasing Hector Sanchez's grade from a C+ to a B-. I felt I shorted Sanchez a little too much when coming up the rankings and at No. 10, he deserves at least a B- grade.

What Does the Future Hold for Angel Villalona?

I was reading a piece on Beyond the Box Score about Wily Mo Pena, and it got me thinking: who in the Giants system has or had the kind of raw power like Pena and came from a similar background? (e.g. signed when he was young, free swinger, well-sized, but athletic kid out of Latin America.)

The first player that came to mind was Angel Villalona.

Yes, the same Villalona that signed a then-club record $2.1 million signing bonus in 2006.

The same Villalona who was once a Top-50 prospect in all of baseball in 2008 and 2009, according to Baseball America.

And yep, the same Villalona who is currently accused of murdering a 25-year old man at a night club in the Dominican Republic on September 19, 2009.

The former "free-swinging" first base prospect is currently out of jail and on bail, and his defense team swayed the family of the victim drop charges against him, but Villalona's life is far from being back on track. First off, the prosecution is still following through on the case, even without the victim's family involved. Secondly, Villalona's visa was revoked after the murder, and it is murky in terms of when or even if Villalona will get another visa to come back stateside and play ball. And lastly, after serving some time in jail and undergoing this exhausting legal process, he hasn't played organized baseball since July of 2009, where a leg injury ended his season early in San Jose.

It's a shame that Villalona's professional career in the United States may be over before it ever started. He's only 20 years old, but he hasn't played in almost two years. While he has been practicing a little bit in the Dominican Republic (as evidenced by this video announcing his release from jail), he certainly hasn't faced the caliber of pitching or been in the kind of  practice schedule or environment he had been accustomed to the past couple of years.

A top prospect in the Giants system for a couple of seasons, Villalona was very much in the Wily Mo-mold: he had tremendous size, tools and pop, but he was a free swinger with poor strike zone judgment, who had to make strides in terms of improving his plate patience. In three seasons in the minors, Villalona's walk rate declined each season (from 6.7 percent in Arizona to 3.6 percent in Augusta to 2.9 percent in San Jose), as did his BB/K ratio (0.36 to 0.15 to 0.12). His power numbers weren't mind blowing in the AZL (five home runs, .160 ISO in 224 plate appearances) or the Sally (17 home runs, .172 ISO in 500 plate appearances), but considering he was only 17 and 18 years old at the time, many people saw the semblance of power a comforting sign since he was so young and his tools were so raw and undeveloped. With more exposure to minor league pitching, Giants fans and even management figured the power would start to come in bunches and the plate approach would improve as well, which would help him increase his batting average over time.

His San Jose campaign was disappointing though, as Villalona didn't show the improvement Giants fans and management expected. He only hit nine home runs, and his ISO fell to .130. Also, his walk rate at 2.9 percent was a career low (sans the five game stint in Salem Keizer in 2007 where he had zero strikeouts), and his 25 percent strikeout rate was just .4 points lower than the previous year. Yes, Villalona hit slightly better for average (.267; four points higher than 2008), but that was about the only improvement seen in Villalona's game in his transition from Augusta to San Jose. (To make matters worse, his .327 BABIP was 10 points higher than his Augusta BABIP, as the Cal League tend's to favor hitters.)

If Villalona could get this court issue resolved this year and somehow get a visa to get back in the United States as soon as next season, there might be some kind of future for Villalona in the Giants organization or at least in professional baseball. First off, at six-feet, three inches and 200 pounds (though he's probably closer to 220 from the last I've seen of him), he still has a lot of interesting tools, especially as a hitter. Remember, prior to the 2008 season, John Sickels ranked him as the No.1 prospect in the Giants system and graded him as a B+ prospect, and in 2009 he graded him as a B prospect and the 4th best prospect in the Giants system.

Of course, Sickels cut him some slack because he was a 17 year old playing in Single A (average hitter age is 21) and an 18 year old playing in High Single A (average hitters age is 22-23). He, and many other scouts and analysts (including MLB.com, which ranked him as the 48th best prospect going into 2009), excused his poor plate discipline because in their minds he was "still learning the game." (An understandable and valid argument by the way; to play and show as much power in Single A at an age where most American kids aren't even graduated out of high school yet is a testament to his pure talent.)

With two years of his career (at the soonest) lost though, Villalona doesn't have the youth to lean on anymore. And unfortunately for him, I don't think he is ever going to be able to develop and improve upon his plate patience issues (To put things in context, the average BB/K ratio for a hitter is around 0.50). If anything, he was a couple of years away from being decent in 2009. I can't imagine what the odds would be if he came back next year (and like I said, that's best case scenario for him).

In some sad way, Villalona is a classic case of a "prospect gone wrong." He came from a poor background from a rough part of the Dominican Republic where trouble has a tendency follow those with exuberant amounts of money. Perhaps he is just a target of those who want to partake in his wealth as he claims. But, we have seen this story with Latin American ballplayers before, with some turning out in favor of the player (in Juan Uribe's case) and some not (Ugueth Urbina).

If Villalona can get that visa, it'll be an interesting story. That being said, there will be boatloads of questions upon his arrival. Will his tools be as strong as they were when he signed as a 16 year old? How will his body type look? How has his athleticism been affected since being away from the game? What's his defense like? Can he still hit? Has his strike zone judgment improved in the time off? Or has it deteriorated even worse (if that's even remotely possible considering how poor it was to begin with)?

Of course, Giants fans and management just need to worry about Villalona coming back to the United States at all, and even that seems hard to believe. If he does find a way to the States and sees the field again in a Giants uniform, he'll have the chips stacked against him, that's for sure.

Villalona turning into a poor man's Wily Mo Pena would probably be an optimistic projection at this point.