First off, yes, I'm posting on Easter. Which means one of four things:
1.) I'm away from family and don't have enough money to make the trip back home by road or air
2.) I'm not religious, don't believe in Easter or any God for that matter and like to live a shallow life that is devoid of anything "spiritual."
3.) Am Jewish and celebrated Passover already.
4.) Am at home, but trying to avoid family because well...I'm just an anti-social kind of guy that would rather spend time in front of a computer than with family.
Well, if you guessed one, you would be correct. Two or three wouldn't have been bad choices, simply because I never touch anything religious on this blog, so my religious views have been (and will remain) fairly ambiguous. And as for four, well...you just have to be a jerk to think that, so shame on you. I hope you feel better after you eat your Ham on Easter Sunday.
Bitterness aside, on to the 2012 preview of the San Jose Giants.
2011 Recap:
The San Jose Giants got off to a roaring start to begin the year, as they finished the first half with an unreal record of 51-19, good for the best record in the Cal League overall at the time. The Giants finished the first half 13 games ahead of second place Stockton, and 16 games ahead of third place Bakersfield. Considering the Giants past history of success in the California League (they have been in the title hunt consistently the past five years), the Giants looked primed for another run at the CL championship in 2011.
However, with the callups of Chris Dominguez, Francisco Peguero and Heath Hembree to Richmond by mid-season, a trade of top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets (in the Carlos Beltran) and a mid-season slump by top prospect Gary Brown, the Giants regressed in the second half, going 38-32 over their next 70 games. The Giants did have a chance to win the Northern Division at the end of the year, but they ended up losing out to Stockton in the Northern Division Championship series. Still, at 90-50, it was an impressive year overall for the South Bay Giants, and the fans took notice, as they finished with the second-best attendance in the Cal League.
Offensively, everything began and ended with Brown, whose strong campaign in the Cal League garnered him honors as the Giants' top prospect going into 2012 by almost every publication and analyst. Brown posted a slash of .336/.407/.519 and added a .925 OPS to go along with 14 home runs, 115 runs scored and 53 stolen bases. For his efforts, Brown was named the 2011 Cal League Rookie of the Year and also earned a spot in the Futures Game at All-Star Weekend.
However, Brown wasn't the only bat that stood out in San Jose. Before getting call ups to Fresno and San Francisco, catcher Hector Sanchez went from middling catcher prospect to a Top-10 system guy after lighting up Cal League pitching in only 52 games. The 21-year-old Venezuelan put up a .302/.338/.533 line in 228 plate appearances and also added 11 home runs and 58 RBI to his already gaudy averages. Fellow countryman Ehire Adrianza sparked the Giants offense in the second half after Peguero and Dominguez moved up to Richmond, as the slick-fielding shorstop posted a career best slash of .300/.375/.470 in 262 plate appearances.
While the offense was a force for San Jose in 2011, the pitching was sneakily good, even after they lost Wheeler in the Beltran trade. The Giants pitching staff finished first in the Cal League runs allowed per game at 4.21, which was 0.80 runs better than second place Stockton. San Jose also finished with the league's best team ERA at 3.70 (they were the only CL team under 4.00) and second-best WHIP at 1.33 (only .04 behind first-place Stockton).
While Wheeler was the Giants' most dynamic pitcher in his tenure in San Jose (he struck out 98 in 88 innings pitched), he was far from the best pitcher statistically on the San Jose roster in 2011. The rotation was led by the three-headed-force of Craig Westcott, Chris Heston and Kelvin Marte, who all threw over 145 innings in 2011, and posted sub-4 ERAs (3.42, 3.16, 3.47, respectively). Though he finished a win behind Westcott in the W-L column, Heston was the most impressive of the three as he finished with the best K/BB ratio (3.28), K/9 (7.8), HA/9 (8.6) of the bunch. Heston was 23 years old last year, so he was around league average when it came to age (the average age of CL pitchers was 23.2 last year), but he certainly has the potential to be a strong contributor to the rotation in Richmond in 2012.
After Hembree dominated the CL (21 saves, 0.73 ERA, 16.1 K/9) and predictably earned a call up to the Eastern League, Jake Dunning and Mitch Lively split closer duties to mixed results. While Dunning did earn 10 saves, he posted a 4.74 ERA and allowed 10.2 hits per nine innings. While he did post solid K/BB ratios (2.96), Dunning has to improve his ability to limit contact if he wants to survive in the move to the Eastern League this upcoming season.
As for Lively, though an older prospect at 25 years old, he finished the year with nice numbers, recording 8 saves and posting a 1.46 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 38 appearances and 17 games finished. Lively will be 26 years old and will bypass Richmond and begin the year in Triple-A Fresno.
Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for at the Plate?
San Jose should be a nice showcase for 2011 Giants draft picks, as catcher Andrew Susac, first baseman Ricky Oropesa, and first round pick, shortstop Joe Panik will all begin the year in the Cal League. So far, the results have been a little mixed for Oropesa and Susac, as they are batting .250 and .231 after three games, respectively. However, it is still VERY early in the season, and they could bounce those numbers up with a solid game today against Modesto.
As for Panik, he is continuing where he left off in the Northwest League, as he is putting up a slash of .400/.538/.600 in 10 at-bats. Panik has recorded two doubles and three walks and no strikeouts going into today's game. As he showed last year in Salem Keizer, Panik's mature skills and approach has illustrated why the Giants took him in the first round of the draft last season (despite the scoffs of many scouts and experts). I expect Panik to really stand out this year and have a breakout season similar to Brown a year ago, though without the speed or home run numbers (though I think he could come close in the home runs and I think their slugging percentages will be similar because of Panik's ability to hit to the gaps).
One of the big under-the-radar prospects to watch for San Jose is Adam Duvall, who is coming off a sensational year in Augusta where he posted a .912 OPS to go along with 22 home runs. Duvall shares a similar prospect profile to Chris Dominguez in the sense that they are both from the University of Louisville and both third base prospects. While he doesn't have the athleticism or plus tools of Dominguez, Duvall's Sally numbers in 2011 were more impressive than Dominguez's 2010. While he hasn't gotten of to the best start (Duvall has struck six times in 12 at-bats and has no walks and only one hit), he could be a key component to this Giants offense in 2012.
Another infield prospect to watch out for will be Carter Jurica, a 2010 draft pick who split last year between the Arizona Rookie League and the Cal League. Jurica posted a .250/.355/.383 slash last year in San Jose, and also added four home runs and five stolen bases. Most of Jurica's value comes defensively, as he has been noted for his solid though unspectacular glove up the middle. He and Panik should provide a very interesting double play combo up the middle, and are expected to rotate between second and shortstop throughout the year.
The outfield will be led Jarett Parker, who'll be making his second tour of duty in the Cal League in 2012. While Parker displayed nice power potential (13 home runs), and a patient approach (.360 OBP, 0.51 BB/K ratio, 74 walks in 571 plate appearances), he struggled in terms of making consistent contact at the plate, as evidenced by his .260 average, 70 percent contact rate, and team-leading 144 strikeouts. I don't expect Parker to stay the whole year in San Jose, as I think he is due for a call up to Richmond at some point this year simply because of his age (he'll be 23). However, he does need to show progress at the plate in terms of making better contact if he wants to be taken more seriously as a prospect. Right now, his stock has regressed since he was drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft, and he looks to be way behind outfielder prospects such as Brown and Peguero.
The rest of the outfield looks pretty thin, as Ryan Lollis and Chris Lofton will look to contribute to the Giants lineup. Lollis put up stellar numbers in Augusta last year, posting a slash of .314/.393/.422 and an OPS of .816 in .296 at-bats, but he struggled in call ups to San Jose and Richmond, posting OPS numbers of .627 and .444, respectively. Lofton is a strong athlete who was rated by Baseball America as being the best athlete of any Giants pick other than Brown in the 2010 draft. A ninth round pick, Lofton put up a pedestrian .615 OPS in 418 at-bats in Augusta. He did steal 22 bags with the Green Jackets, but he was caught 14 times, a sign that his instincts on the basepaths aren't that great and are in need of improvement in San Jose. However with his athleticism, Lofton has a lot of potential to be a contributor to this San Jose lineup in 2012.
Who Should Giants Fans Watch Out for on the Mound?
Shawn Sanford and Taylor Rogers led the Green Jackets rotation in 2011 and will be expected to do the same in San Jose in 2012. Sanford's 10-10 record doesn't impress, but he did post a 2.55 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 3.57 in the Sally a year ago. Sanford's strength as a pitcher is his control, as he walked only 30 batters in 169.2 innings pitched (good for a BB/9 of 1.7). That being said, while his control, command and ability to keep the ball on the ground to limit hits has been impressive (1.69 GO/AO last year), he doesn't possess overwhelming stuff or strikeout prowess. Last year, his K/9 was only 5.7, a regression from the 8.6 mark he put up in 2010 in Salem Keizer. It'll be interesting to see how well he keeps batters at bay in the Cal League in 2012, especially considering the park factors and t he'll be around league average age-wise for a pitcher at 23 years old. He's off to a good start as he went six innings and allowed only three hits and no runs while walking one and striking out one in his debut start of the 2012 season (which resulted in a win for San Jose credited to Sanford).
As for Rogers, while his 2012 debut wasn't as impressive as Sanford's (he went five innings and allowed seven hits, two runs and a walk; but he did strike out seven and earned the win), he does share a similar profile to Sanford as a pitcher, even though he is a year older. Much like Sanford, Rogers showed good command in Augusta last year (2.26 K/BB ratio) and a strong ability to keep the ball on the ground (2.11 GO/AO ratio last year with the Green Jackets). However, he doesn't blow away hitters (5.0 K/9) and he can prove to be quite hittable (career H/9 of 9.3). While Sanford's age and skills give him a little bit more upside, Rogers could prove to be a good No. 2 guy in the San Jose rotation in 2012.
The Giants will have wild cards on the staff in Stephen Harrold, Seth Rosin, Josh Osich and Edward Concepcion, who will all be in the Giants bullpen to begin the year in 2012 (though Rosin and Osich have starter potential). Harrold was rated as the 25th best prospect in the Giants system, according to Baseball America, and Rosin is a power-armed right hander who has cracked the Top 30 in many lists. Both have showed a strong ability to strike batters out over the course of their minor league careers (Harrold has a minor league career K/9 of 9.3 while Rosin is just a notch below at 9.2), but they don't have very high ceilings as older, polished arms out of college.
Osich is a big wild card because it is unknown if the Giants will keep him in the bullpen or if they might move him into the rotation eventually. Osich started in college at Oregon State (and excelled as he threw a no-hitter against UCLA last year), but he had arm issues that could have been related to TJ surgery in 2009 (which forced him to miss 2010) and was shut down for the remainder of the 2011 season (which ended hurting his draft stock as he fell to the Giants' slot in the sixth round; he originally had first round/supplemental round potential pre-shut down). While it is probably wise to ease Osich into professional pitching by keeping him in the pen to begin the year, I do hope Giants management somehow works him into the rotation at some point this year. He has the ability to start, as evidenced by his track record in college, along with a repertoire that includes a solid fastball that touches 97 MPH, and a slider and changeup that have average to slightly above potential. A move of Osich to the rotation would increase his value significantly, and make him a steal as a sixth-round selection.
A sleeper out of the bullpen to watch out for is Concepcion, as he has showed a strong ability to strike batters out (career 9.1 K/9), but has had significant command and control issues as well. After a disastrous stint in the Northwest League which saw him post a 6.39 ERA and K/BB ratio of 1.24 (a minor league career low, and that includes his stint in the DSL) in 63.1 IP as a starter, Concepcion bounced back with a move to the pen in Augusta and posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.72 K/BB ratio in 52.1 IP. Concepcion still walked hitters in bunches (6.2 BB/9), but he did strike out 10.7 batters per nine innings, his best total in that category since his stint in the Arizona Rookie League (when it was 11.5). If Concepcion can harness his control even a little bit, he could be a very valuable arm in the San Jose bullpen this year, and could see his stock as a prospect rise by the end of the season simply because of his ability to strike batters out.
What Should We Expect from the Giants in 2012?
San Jose has been one of the strengths in the Giants' system "team-wise" for a while. They have consistently competed for Cal League titles while at the same time developing talent that has progressed nicely in their system. Of course, it's always tough to judge prospects (hitters especially) in the Cal League because of the offensive-friendly park factors. We have seen many hitters mash in the Cal League, only to be fully exposed in their transition to the Double-A Eastern League. This year, the offense will attract a lot of attention, especially with 2011 Draft picks Panik, Susac and Oropesa expected to get a lot of at-bats. Past those though (and maybe Duvall), the talent offensively does drop off quite a bit. I'm not a big believe in Lofton, and Jurica seems to be backup material at the Major League level at best. Furthermore, the pitching seems less strong in comparison to years past, as the staff lacks that front line starter they've sported in years past (Wheeler last year, Surkamp two years ago, Bumgarner and Alderson in 2009).
I think San Jose has produced a clubhouse environment where the team will always be competitive and I don't expect that to stop in 2012. However, considering how reliant they will be on offense (and considering this is Susac and Oropesa's first exposure to professional pitching, that's a big risk), and how thin the pitching looks, I expect a big regression for the CL Giants in 2012 from their 90-50 record a year ago.
Showing posts with label Joe Panik. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Panik. Show all posts
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Friday, February 17, 2012
OTF Top 30: No. 2, Joe Panik, SS/2B
No. 2: Joe Panik, Shortstop/Second Baseman
Age: 21 years old
Drafted: First round (29th overall) in the 2011 Draft
College: St. John's (NY)
2011 Regular Season numbers: .341 average, .401 OBP, .467 slugging, .868 OPS, .403 wOBA, 144 wRC+, 49 runs scored, 6 home runs, 13 stolen bases (Short Season)
2011 Fall/Winter League numbers: .323 average, .394 OBP, .473 slugging, .867 OPS, .389 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 6 runs scored, 2 home runs, 0 stolen bases (AFL)
Why you should know about Panik:
The much maligned pick in the 29th slot, Panik has come a long way to prove his doubters wrong in such a short period of time. Many experts expected Panik to go somewhere late in the supplemental round or even the second, but the Giants swooped him up late in the first round and after signing early, he came on with a vengeance in Salem Keizer, proving to be one of the Northwest League's better hitters. Panik doesn't wow scouts with his athleticism or tools, but his stat lines and disciplined plate approach in college and as a professional have started to make some doubters into believers.
What Are Panik's Strengths as a Prospect?
Without a doubt, Panik has a very sound approach at the plate. It was his calling card as a prospect in college at St. John's, and he has seamlessly transitioned that excellent plate discipline to the professional level, as evidenced by his stints in the Northwest League and Arizona Fall League. At St. John's, Panik posted BB/K ratios of 1.81, 2.24 and 1.83 his last three years with the Red Storm, and in 304 plate appearances with the Volcanoes, he sported a ratio of 1.12. However, it's not just his ability to take walks that has experts and scouts turning their heads, but he has showed an impeccable ability to make contact as a hitter. He averaged a 91 percent contact rate in college, and his contact rate was also 91 percent in his stint in the NWL last season. Hence, it comes as no surprise that Panik is going to be a threat to be a high-average hitter, and that was the case last year as he posted batting averages of .398 and .341 at St. John's and Salem Keizer, respectively. (And if that wasn't enough, Panik earned the Northwest League batting title with his .341 average; not bad for a guy who was playing college ball the same year.)
In addition, while the batting average numbers are nice, Panik has showed some glimpses of power for a middle infielder. At St. John's, he belted 20 homers combined in his last two years, as well as slugging percentages of .621 and .642 his last two years as an amateur. While the power dipped when he made the transition to wooden bats (as expected for most, if not all, college prospects), it still remained solid for a middle infielder, as he posted a slugging of .467 in the NWL and .473 with the Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League. While Panik isn't going to post Tulowitzki or even Utley-like numbers, he certainly could be a threat for 10-15 home runs on an annual basis.
Defensively, while he doesn't sport a ton of athleticism, scouting reports have remarked that he is still an above average defender that can hold his own in the field. Rob Gordon of the 2012 Minor League Baseball Analyst rated his glove a 3 plus out of 5 and that he gets the most out of his abilities. In the NWL, he also flashed a 4.59 RF/G and .964 fielding percentage, not bad considering it was his first year as a professional.
Where Might Panik Struggle?
The disparity in Panik's rankings is a classic case of the "scouts vs. stats" argument when evaluating prospects. On paper, Panik looks like a stud. He gets on base, he hits for high average, he has good power for a middle infielder, and he shows a patient approach along with a strong ability to make contact at the plate. When you look at his numbers, not only does he look like an everyday player, but he also has the potential to be an All-Star middle infielder.
However, the scouts aren't as kind. Keith Law was adamant against the pick on draft day, and even though he warmed up a little to him after his Northwest League campaign, Law still doesn't feel he is a very high caliber prospect (he believes that Panik is a utility player at best). To be honest, from a scouting standpoint, one can understand where Law, and a lot of other baseball experts come from. If you ever watch him on tape, nothing about Panik stands out. His swing is good, but it's not the kind of smooth motion one would expect from a .300-plus hitter. Furthermore, he doesn't look all that athletic, and defensively, nothing he does is very impressive. He doesn't have a cannon, his glove isn't especially quick, you feel like his footwork could be better, etc. If you look at him on video, you would think he was a fourth or fifth round prospect, not a former first rounder.
And that is what makes Panik's upcoming year so intriguing. He's dominated in college and in the Northwest League and in the Arizona Fall League despite having average to slightly above average tools at best. Hence, one has to wonder if the numbers will start to regress wants he faces more talented pitching and better competition. Scouts would say he will regress, while the stat "guys" would say his approach will lead to sustainable success. At this point though, we as Giants fans wouldn't probably know until he hits the field wherever he should be on Opening Day (should it be Augusta or San Jose, but most likely San Jose).
Grades on Panik's Tools
Hitting for Average/Contact ability: 19/20 (He hit for high average in college and high average in the NWL and the AFL. In the hitter friendly Cal League, he should be able to sustain that success. However, watching his swing in person prevents me from giving him a perfect score. That being said, the numbers don't lie, and Panik should be a perennial threat for .300 over his minor league career.)
Plate Approach: 19/20 (Probably the best aspect of Panik's game. The league average BB/K ratio is usually 0.50. Panik posted over double that ratio in his first stint of professional ball. While I think his gaudy BB/K ratios won't carry as he moves up the system, he should be a guy who's consistently getting on base and setting himself up to score runs.)
Power: 14/20 (While he has posted some gaudy slugging percentages for a middle infielder in college and in the NWL and AFL, Panik's power potential doesn't seem very high. He has a nice swing that will provide some surprising pop, but he probably has a ceiling of about 10-15 home runs, and even that is being generous. He definitely has some gap to gap power, but it'll be interesting to see how his power progresses as he moves up to High-A and Double-A ball. It is probably more realistic to think that his slugging will hover in the .420-.440 range as he progresses in the Giants system.)
Speed: 16/20 (Panik is not a burner on the basepaths or in the field. He is opportunistic while on the bases, as evidenced by his 13 stolen bases with the Volcanoes. That being said, he was far from perfect, as he was caught five times. Panik could be an occasional threat on the basepaths, especially considering how often he gets on base. Still though, his speed is probably average at best.
Defense: 17/20 (Judging from scouting reports and what I have seen on tape, it's obvious that Panik's days at shortstop are limited. With Crawford at the Major League level, and Adrianza and Carter Jurica much more highly heralded defensive prospects, Panik probably would be better suited for the keystone position. As a second baseman though, his defense would most likely hold up well and his lack of arm strength wouldn't be as exposed as it would at shortstop (which is why I grade him a 17; if he stays at SS, it's probably a 16 or even as low as 15). Furthermore, with Nick Noonan flaming out, Charlie Culberson's future questionable, and Brock Bond most likely a Four-A player, second base would be a prime opportunity for Panik to move quickly in the Giants system.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 19/20 (Panik showed a lot by signing quickly after draft day. displaying he is interested in playing baseball rather than negotiating a higher paycheck. After all the negative attention about being "overdrafted," he took care of business and probably had the best season out of anyone drafted in the 2011 draft. So far, Panik hasn't had any injury issues of note and he had the reputation of being a gamer both with the Volcanoes and at St. John's, which definitely sits well in his favor.
Overall grade: B+
Projection: Starting Major League Second Baseman; has the potential to be a solid, though not spectacular contributor.
Summary: Panik has everything I would want from a middle infielder prospect: an excellent plate approach, a little bit of pop, decent defense, and passable speed. Is he spectacular? No. Will his tools wow you? Heck no. Is he going to be a perennial All-Star? Most likely not. However, keep this in mind: Kolten Wong was rated as one of the best middle infielders in the draft last year, and Panik pretty much went toe to toe last year with Wong on a statistical basis. However, Kolten Wong signed for $1.5 million. Panik? He went for $1.1 million. So, the Giants saved $400 K and pretty much got the same player on paper. Panik is going to be the kind of "value" player in my mind, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him continue to give the Giants value on investment as he progresses in the Giants system.
Age: 21 years old
Drafted: First round (29th overall) in the 2011 Draft
College: St. John's (NY)
2011 Regular Season numbers: .341 average, .401 OBP, .467 slugging, .868 OPS, .403 wOBA, 144 wRC+, 49 runs scored, 6 home runs, 13 stolen bases (Short Season)
2011 Fall/Winter League numbers: .323 average, .394 OBP, .473 slugging, .867 OPS, .389 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 6 runs scored, 2 home runs, 0 stolen bases (AFL)
Why you should know about Panik:
The much maligned pick in the 29th slot, Panik has come a long way to prove his doubters wrong in such a short period of time. Many experts expected Panik to go somewhere late in the supplemental round or even the second, but the Giants swooped him up late in the first round and after signing early, he came on with a vengeance in Salem Keizer, proving to be one of the Northwest League's better hitters. Panik doesn't wow scouts with his athleticism or tools, but his stat lines and disciplined plate approach in college and as a professional have started to make some doubters into believers.
What Are Panik's Strengths as a Prospect?
Without a doubt, Panik has a very sound approach at the plate. It was his calling card as a prospect in college at St. John's, and he has seamlessly transitioned that excellent plate discipline to the professional level, as evidenced by his stints in the Northwest League and Arizona Fall League. At St. John's, Panik posted BB/K ratios of 1.81, 2.24 and 1.83 his last three years with the Red Storm, and in 304 plate appearances with the Volcanoes, he sported a ratio of 1.12. However, it's not just his ability to take walks that has experts and scouts turning their heads, but he has showed an impeccable ability to make contact as a hitter. He averaged a 91 percent contact rate in college, and his contact rate was also 91 percent in his stint in the NWL last season. Hence, it comes as no surprise that Panik is going to be a threat to be a high-average hitter, and that was the case last year as he posted batting averages of .398 and .341 at St. John's and Salem Keizer, respectively. (And if that wasn't enough, Panik earned the Northwest League batting title with his .341 average; not bad for a guy who was playing college ball the same year.)
In addition, while the batting average numbers are nice, Panik has showed some glimpses of power for a middle infielder. At St. John's, he belted 20 homers combined in his last two years, as well as slugging percentages of .621 and .642 his last two years as an amateur. While the power dipped when he made the transition to wooden bats (as expected for most, if not all, college prospects), it still remained solid for a middle infielder, as he posted a slugging of .467 in the NWL and .473 with the Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League. While Panik isn't going to post Tulowitzki or even Utley-like numbers, he certainly could be a threat for 10-15 home runs on an annual basis.
Defensively, while he doesn't sport a ton of athleticism, scouting reports have remarked that he is still an above average defender that can hold his own in the field. Rob Gordon of the 2012 Minor League Baseball Analyst rated his glove a 3 plus out of 5 and that he gets the most out of his abilities. In the NWL, he also flashed a 4.59 RF/G and .964 fielding percentage, not bad considering it was his first year as a professional.
Where Might Panik Struggle?
The disparity in Panik's rankings is a classic case of the "scouts vs. stats" argument when evaluating prospects. On paper, Panik looks like a stud. He gets on base, he hits for high average, he has good power for a middle infielder, and he shows a patient approach along with a strong ability to make contact at the plate. When you look at his numbers, not only does he look like an everyday player, but he also has the potential to be an All-Star middle infielder.
However, the scouts aren't as kind. Keith Law was adamant against the pick on draft day, and even though he warmed up a little to him after his Northwest League campaign, Law still doesn't feel he is a very high caliber prospect (he believes that Panik is a utility player at best). To be honest, from a scouting standpoint, one can understand where Law, and a lot of other baseball experts come from. If you ever watch him on tape, nothing about Panik stands out. His swing is good, but it's not the kind of smooth motion one would expect from a .300-plus hitter. Furthermore, he doesn't look all that athletic, and defensively, nothing he does is very impressive. He doesn't have a cannon, his glove isn't especially quick, you feel like his footwork could be better, etc. If you look at him on video, you would think he was a fourth or fifth round prospect, not a former first rounder.
And that is what makes Panik's upcoming year so intriguing. He's dominated in college and in the Northwest League and in the Arizona Fall League despite having average to slightly above average tools at best. Hence, one has to wonder if the numbers will start to regress wants he faces more talented pitching and better competition. Scouts would say he will regress, while the stat "guys" would say his approach will lead to sustainable success. At this point though, we as Giants fans wouldn't probably know until he hits the field wherever he should be on Opening Day (should it be Augusta or San Jose, but most likely San Jose).
Grades on Panik's Tools
Hitting for Average/Contact ability: 19/20 (He hit for high average in college and high average in the NWL and the AFL. In the hitter friendly Cal League, he should be able to sustain that success. However, watching his swing in person prevents me from giving him a perfect score. That being said, the numbers don't lie, and Panik should be a perennial threat for .300 over his minor league career.)
Plate Approach: 19/20 (Probably the best aspect of Panik's game. The league average BB/K ratio is usually 0.50. Panik posted over double that ratio in his first stint of professional ball. While I think his gaudy BB/K ratios won't carry as he moves up the system, he should be a guy who's consistently getting on base and setting himself up to score runs.)
Power: 14/20 (While he has posted some gaudy slugging percentages for a middle infielder in college and in the NWL and AFL, Panik's power potential doesn't seem very high. He has a nice swing that will provide some surprising pop, but he probably has a ceiling of about 10-15 home runs, and even that is being generous. He definitely has some gap to gap power, but it'll be interesting to see how his power progresses as he moves up to High-A and Double-A ball. It is probably more realistic to think that his slugging will hover in the .420-.440 range as he progresses in the Giants system.)
Speed: 16/20 (Panik is not a burner on the basepaths or in the field. He is opportunistic while on the bases, as evidenced by his 13 stolen bases with the Volcanoes. That being said, he was far from perfect, as he was caught five times. Panik could be an occasional threat on the basepaths, especially considering how often he gets on base. Still though, his speed is probably average at best.
Defense: 17/20 (Judging from scouting reports and what I have seen on tape, it's obvious that Panik's days at shortstop are limited. With Crawford at the Major League level, and Adrianza and Carter Jurica much more highly heralded defensive prospects, Panik probably would be better suited for the keystone position. As a second baseman though, his defense would most likely hold up well and his lack of arm strength wouldn't be as exposed as it would at shortstop (which is why I grade him a 17; if he stays at SS, it's probably a 16 or even as low as 15). Furthermore, with Nick Noonan flaming out, Charlie Culberson's future questionable, and Brock Bond most likely a Four-A player, second base would be a prime opportunity for Panik to move quickly in the Giants system.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 19/20 (Panik showed a lot by signing quickly after draft day. displaying he is interested in playing baseball rather than negotiating a higher paycheck. After all the negative attention about being "overdrafted," he took care of business and probably had the best season out of anyone drafted in the 2011 draft. So far, Panik hasn't had any injury issues of note and he had the reputation of being a gamer both with the Volcanoes and at St. John's, which definitely sits well in his favor.
Overall grade: B+
Projection: Starting Major League Second Baseman; has the potential to be a solid, though not spectacular contributor.
Summary: Panik has everything I would want from a middle infielder prospect: an excellent plate approach, a little bit of pop, decent defense, and passable speed. Is he spectacular? No. Will his tools wow you? Heck no. Is he going to be a perennial All-Star? Most likely not. However, keep this in mind: Kolten Wong was rated as one of the best middle infielders in the draft last year, and Panik pretty much went toe to toe last year with Wong on a statistical basis. However, Kolten Wong signed for $1.5 million. Panik? He went for $1.1 million. So, the Giants saved $400 K and pretty much got the same player on paper. Panik is going to be the kind of "value" player in my mind, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him continue to give the Giants value on investment as he progresses in the Giants system.
Monday, June 6, 2011
Giants Select SS Joe Panik at No. 29 and RHP Kyle Crick at No. 49
Sorry this is late, but I had some commitments tonight and I couldn't get to the post until now. Good thing I did though, as it gave me some time to reflect on the picks.
Joe Panik, SS, St. John's University (NY)
For some reasons, St. John has been really active in my life these past five months. A girl I dated had parents who went to St. John's, St. John's quickly became my favorite team in College Basketball because of their hard-nosed play and Steve Lavin, Gonzaga played St. John's in the NCAA Tourney and the Zags played their best basketball game of the year, and now the Giants used their 29th pick on the Red Storm infielder. Wow...if I didn't turn down St. John's out of high school (it was one of four colleges I was considering), I would be really stoked to be a Johnnie alum right now.
Anyways, back on the subject, well...from a statistical standpoint, Panik looks very good. He showed very good strike zone recognition in college, as he posted BB/K ratios of 1.81, 2.24 and 1.83 in his three years with the Johnnies. Furthermore, he put up averages of .332, .374 and .398 in his three collegiate seasons. The most surprising aspect of Panik's game was his pop for a middle infielder, as he posted slugging percentages of .513, .621 and .642 and hit a total of 25 home runs in 640 at-bats.
However, the big question about Panik is how he can do against better competition and how his power and hitting will translate when he starts hitting with wood bats. Panik played a year in the Cape Cod in 2010, and while he did well at the plate (he hit .276 with a .384 OBP in 145 at-bats), his power didn't translate as he posted a slugging percentage of .372 and only had 10 extra bases hits (eight doubles and two home runs).
In terms of his defense, he had garnered good reports from scouts, though he doesn't seem to be rated as highly as Brandon Crawford or Ehire Adrianza when they broke into professional ball. Here's is what Matt Grabusky said about Panik in his scouting report on MLB Draft Guide.com:
A lot of experts still felt though the Giants reached with Panik at 29, and that they could have gotten him at their slot in the supplemental round, or even perhaps as late as the second round. Keith Law on his twitter called Panik a "reach" and that he was a "utility" type. I would wait and see how he does when he makes the transition to the Northwest League this year before I would give him such a "label", but I do feel like the Giants could have gotten a higher ceiling high school arm at No. 29 (Henry Owens for example) and then got Panik at No. 49 in the supplemental round.
Of course, this has been a trend for the Giants recently in drafts (e.g. "reaching for players in the first round"), but it's a strategy that's paid off. Last year, Gary Brown was a projected supplemental/second round pick, and he went in the Giants' first round slot. Safe to say, he's made the pick pay off as evidenced by his performance in San Jose this year. Hopefully the same can be true for Panik.
Kyle Crick, RHP, Sherman HS (TX)
Crick is a projectable power arm that fits the characteristics of former Giants HS draft picks: he's big (225 pounds), he's tall (six-foot, three-inches), and he throws gas, though he has to do some work on his secondary stuff. Thankfully, considering Crick's age, the Giants have the time to be patient with him, and he could be a nice project that could develop well in the Giants system. Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler are prime examples of physically gifted HS pitchers that succeeded in the Giants system, and there's no reason to think that Crick can join that club if he stays healthy.
Crick according to John Klima of Baseball Beginnings earned an OFP grade of 54 in his scouting report. The best aspect of Crick's repertoire, according Klima, is his fastball, which was graded a 50 out of 65. His slider was his next best pitch, which was graded a 40 out of 55 and his change and split were graded a decent 30 out of 50. Crick's control still needs some work (Klima graded his control a 30 out of 50), but it's obvious that he has a good tool set and some nice potential as a pitcher.
Furthermore, Klima was encouraged by his mechanics and delivery, noting that his delivery was good and that his "arm smooth through back, body sometimes out in front of arm, arm catches up, gets extension and balanced landings." Here's what Klima said about his strengths as a pitcher:
For a supplemental pick, Crick has the tools and frame to be a very good pitcher. Of course, he's young, and he will take some time to develop, since he's a high school kid and not a high profile pitcher like some recent HS pitcher picks like Bumgarner and Wheeler (who were both Top-10 first round picks). That being said, there is a lot to like, and if he can develop his control and secondary stuff in the instructional league and low minors in his first couple of years, then Crick could be a high upside pick that could add to the shallow pitching depth in the Giants system.
Joe Panik, SS, St. John's University (NY)
For some reasons, St. John has been really active in my life these past five months. A girl I dated had parents who went to St. John's, St. John's quickly became my favorite team in College Basketball because of their hard-nosed play and Steve Lavin, Gonzaga played St. John's in the NCAA Tourney and the Zags played their best basketball game of the year, and now the Giants used their 29th pick on the Red Storm infielder. Wow...if I didn't turn down St. John's out of high school (it was one of four colleges I was considering), I would be really stoked to be a Johnnie alum right now.
Anyways, back on the subject, well...from a statistical standpoint, Panik looks very good. He showed very good strike zone recognition in college, as he posted BB/K ratios of 1.81, 2.24 and 1.83 in his three years with the Johnnies. Furthermore, he put up averages of .332, .374 and .398 in his three collegiate seasons. The most surprising aspect of Panik's game was his pop for a middle infielder, as he posted slugging percentages of .513, .621 and .642 and hit a total of 25 home runs in 640 at-bats.
However, the big question about Panik is how he can do against better competition and how his power and hitting will translate when he starts hitting with wood bats. Panik played a year in the Cape Cod in 2010, and while he did well at the plate (he hit .276 with a .384 OBP in 145 at-bats), his power didn't translate as he posted a slugging percentage of .372 and only had 10 extra bases hits (eight doubles and two home runs).
In terms of his defense, he had garnered good reports from scouts, though he doesn't seem to be rated as highly as Brandon Crawford or Ehire Adrianza when they broke into professional ball. Here's is what Matt Grabusky said about Panik in his scouting report on MLB Draft Guide.com:
"In the field, Panik has good range and soft hands. His arm is average, which leads some to see his future at second base. Whether he remains at short or slides over to second, Panik has the ability to be a high on base guy and solid fielder at the next level."
A lot of experts still felt though the Giants reached with Panik at 29, and that they could have gotten him at their slot in the supplemental round, or even perhaps as late as the second round. Keith Law on his twitter called Panik a "reach" and that he was a "utility" type. I would wait and see how he does when he makes the transition to the Northwest League this year before I would give him such a "label", but I do feel like the Giants could have gotten a higher ceiling high school arm at No. 29 (Henry Owens for example) and then got Panik at No. 49 in the supplemental round.
Of course, this has been a trend for the Giants recently in drafts (e.g. "reaching for players in the first round"), but it's a strategy that's paid off. Last year, Gary Brown was a projected supplemental/second round pick, and he went in the Giants' first round slot. Safe to say, he's made the pick pay off as evidenced by his performance in San Jose this year. Hopefully the same can be true for Panik.
Kyle Crick, RHP, Sherman HS (TX)
Crick is a projectable power arm that fits the characteristics of former Giants HS draft picks: he's big (225 pounds), he's tall (six-foot, three-inches), and he throws gas, though he has to do some work on his secondary stuff. Thankfully, considering Crick's age, the Giants have the time to be patient with him, and he could be a nice project that could develop well in the Giants system. Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler are prime examples of physically gifted HS pitchers that succeeded in the Giants system, and there's no reason to think that Crick can join that club if he stays healthy.
Crick according to John Klima of Baseball Beginnings earned an OFP grade of 54 in his scouting report. The best aspect of Crick's repertoire, according Klima, is his fastball, which was graded a 50 out of 65. His slider was his next best pitch, which was graded a 40 out of 55 and his change and split were graded a decent 30 out of 50. Crick's control still needs some work (Klima graded his control a 30 out of 50), but it's obvious that he has a good tool set and some nice potential as a pitcher.
Furthermore, Klima was encouraged by his mechanics and delivery, noting that his delivery was good and that his "arm smooth through back, body sometimes out in front of arm, arm catches up, gets extension and balanced landings." Here's what Klima said about his strengths as a pitcher:
"FB 89-93, comfortable 90-92, hard downhill with tail, heavy ball. Can reach back for a little more and elevate when needed. SL 81-83 with hard bite, go-to weapon. Hard and late. Split 81 with hard drop. Straight CHG 80-81, assume those weren’t flat sliders, secondary SL 72-73 with drop."
For a supplemental pick, Crick has the tools and frame to be a very good pitcher. Of course, he's young, and he will take some time to develop, since he's a high school kid and not a high profile pitcher like some recent HS pitcher picks like Bumgarner and Wheeler (who were both Top-10 first round picks). That being said, there is a lot to like, and if he can develop his control and secondary stuff in the instructional league and low minors in his first couple of years, then Crick could be a high upside pick that could add to the shallow pitching depth in the Giants system.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)