OTF Top 30: No. 4, Heath Hembree, RHP

No. 4: Heath Hembree, right-handed pitcher



Age: 23
Drafted: Fifth round (168 overall) of the 2010 MLB Draft
College: College of Charleston
2011 Regular Season numbers: 26 games, 24.2 IP, 16 hits allowed, 2 runs allowed, 12 walks, 44 strikeouts, 0.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 1.74 FIP, 3.67 BB/K (High-A). 28 games, 28.2 IP, 20 hits allowed, 11 runs allowed, 13 walks, 34 strikeouts, 2.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.64 FIP, 2.62 FIP (Double-A)
2011 Fall/Winter League numbers: None


Why You Should Know about Hembree in 2012:

With Zack Wheeler being traded for Carlos Beltran last July, Hembree emerges as the Giants' best pitching prospect in the system. While a power reliever being the prized pitching prospect isn't necessarily a good sign, Hembree is the kind of prospect who could be making his debut in the Majors as early as this season. Furthermore, with Brian Wilson going through a multitude of health-related issues, and going to be a free agent after next season, Hembree gives the Giants some leverage, as it is totally plausible to think Hembree taking up Wilson's mantle in the closer's spot should he leave town for a higher contract.



What are Hembree's Strengths as a Prospect?

Under the radar in 2010 (he was a fifth round pick in the 2010 draft), Keith Law of ESPN remarked that Hembree was a sleeper prospect in the Giants system when he came out with his Giants Top Prospects list. Law proved to be right, as Hembree dominated the California League and did extremely well in the Eastern League in his first full year. While Hembree did post excellent numbers in the rookie league after signing (he struck out 22 and walked zero...that's right ZERO!), not many people expected Hembree to have the breakout he did at both levels last year.

Hembree's strengths as a prospect are his plus fastball and impeccable ability to strike people out. His fastball goes in the 93-97 MPH range, topping out at 99 MPH according to reports. Furthermore, he has a power sliders that sits in the 84-86 MPH range, according to scouts. This lethal combination led to a 16.05 and 10.67 percent strikeout percentage in High-A and Double-A last season, which is exactly the kind of K/9 rates you want to see out of a potential closer.

Furthermore, in addition to striking out a lot of people, Hembree does not give up a lot of hits and displays above average command for a reliever. His WHIP was 1.16 and 1.17 in the California and Eastern League, respectively, and his BB/K ratios were also solid at 3.7 and 2.6. Hembree has worked hard to get to where he is currently at as a prospect, as coaches have helped smooth Hembree's mechanics and work on not overthrowing, according to Rob Gordon of the Minor League Baseball analyst. With this kind of upward progression, there seems to be a lot of promise for Hembree in the future, especially in the Giants bullpen, which has been a strong point of the Giants' success the past couple of seasons.



Where Might Hembree Struggle as a Prospect?

Though his stuff is absolutely dominating, Hembree at the core remains a two pitch pitcher with a reliever ceiling, which isn't all that valuable at the end of the day. With his stuff, one would hope that the Giants would be able to stretch more innings out of him, but Hembree hadn't pitched many innings in college after bouncing around from South Carolina to junior college to the College of Charleston in a three year span. Hence, Hembree's best case scenario remains as a closer, which doesn't leave him much room for error when it comes to his value and status as a prospect.

Hembree sports a big frame at six-foot, four inches and 210 pounds (he actually lost 10 pounds since becoming a professional), but, according to Perfect Game.com writer Allan Simpson, "he's far from a finished product." His biggest Achilles Heels has to be his control and inconsistency in command. Here's what Simpson said in a writeup on Hembree when he was drafted in 2010:

"Despite his explosive fastball and powerful, athletic frame, the 6-foot-4, 220-pound righthander is far from a finished product, and his end-of-game role for the College of Charleston has it difficult for higher-level scouts to see him. In 21 appearances covering 23 innings (through mid-May), he was 5-2, 6.17 with four saves and had walked 15 while striking out 33. Though Hembree’s fastball is his primary weapon, it can often be straight and college hitters have teed off on it..."

The same reports have been true for Hembree as a professional.  While his strikeouts rates have been impressive for a reliever, his control (walk) rates haven't. In San Jose, he posted a walk rate of 4.38 and in Richmond it was 4.08, only a .30 improvement. Now, considering it was his first full year as a professional, a little slack can be considered (especially since his college career was so limited and sporadic). Nonetheless, if he wants to be rated as an elite reliever at the Minor and Major League level, he'll need to decrease those walk rates and find a little bit more control as a pitcher. With only two "real" pitches (he's starting to develop a changeup, but it's far from polished), and a fastball that has been described as "straight" and "hittable" by scouts, he can't afford to put too many batters on base by balls.


Another red flag that hasn't really showed up so far as a professional but could rear it's ugly head in the future is Hembree's injury history. Hembree suffered a torn ACL as a college senior and struggled to find himself a spot in the rotation or bullpen at South Carolina. Though he bounced back in junior college and at Charleston, the injury history could be an issue, simply because of Hembree's large frame, and one never knows with knee injuries, especially when they occur at such a young age. We have seen prospects bounce back from them before, but we have also seen injuries hinder prospects from reaching their full potential as well.




Grades on Hembree's Tools

Fastball: 19/20 (He's got a power fastball, and it is definitely his plus-plus pitch. It can go as high as 99 MPH, but it sits at 93-97 MPH regularly, which is still very impressive. It can be pretty straight when he's overthrowing, but it seems like his pitching coaches have helped him refrain from doing that too often. With long fingers and a solid frame, Hembree has the potential to keep the firepower behind his fastball for a good while.)
Slider: 18/20 (The slider has gotten good reports, as it has good cutting action and sits in the 84-88 MPH range. It has been described as a four-plus out of five pitch, according to Gordon of the MLBA.)
Changeup: 14/20 (A fairly new pitch for him, as his repertoire in college and last season was his fastball and slider. He used it rarely in 2011, and it hasn't seemed to impress people so far. With his fastball velocity though, it could be a very effective pitch with some development.)
Mechanics: 18/20 (Mechanics were a bit of a question mark for Hembree when he was drafted, but it seems like he and the coaching staffs in the Giants organization have done a good job with him so far. For the most part, his delivery is smooth and he isn't putting too much effort out either. When you watch him on tape, his pitching motion looks solid and consistent, which is pretty much all you can ask for from a pitching prospect at this point.)
Command/Control: 16/20 (The strikeout rates certainly help him greatly in this category. However, walking over four batters every nine innings isn't exactly a promising sign for a reliever, especially one that is expected to close out games. Of course, his control isn't awful by any stretch, but as stated before, if he wants to be an elite reliever, he has to start cutting down the walks.)
Ceiling: 16/20 (Hembree could be a shut-down closer or setup man at the Major League level, but that's as high as his ceiling gets. At 23 years old and with two plus pitches and a sub-par changeup, Hembree doesn't exactly fit the mold of a guy who could learn to be a starting pitcher at the professional level. Of course, that's not a bad thing, but as mentioned earlier, it leaves very little room for error.)
Health/Makeup: 17/20 (Injury set back his college career a bit after tearing his ACL as a high school senior, but the injury bug hasn't hit him since. That being said, he hasn't pitched a lot of innings in either his professional or college career, so how his arm holds up as he progresses through the system and eats more innings will be something for the Giants brass and fans to pay attention to. He transferred twice in college and wasn't exactly a high end draft pick, but he hasn't let those things deflate him and he has put up a nice professional career so far.)


Overall Grade: B
Projection: Middle relief with closer/setup man potential.


Summary: Brian Wilson's injury issues are setting up a lot of attention on Hembree, which could be both good and bad. Last year, Hembree was a bit under the radar and was able to succeed. Now, with more tape and scouting reports on him, he won't go as unnoticed into 2012 as he did into 2011. Nonetheless, his plus fastball and slider, big frame, and history of success point to a career heading in the right direction. With Wilson a free agent after next season, it is entirely possible that Hembree could see some action in the Giants bullpen in 2012 and perhaps have a shot at the closer's spot in 2013 if he experiences Major League success this season.

OTF's 32 Most Interesting Prospects: No. 14, Heath Hembree, RHP

It's been a while since I added to the list. Mostly I have been busy with some work stuff, so that is why the posts have been so inconsistent as of late. However, I should have most of June to post, so I'll have free time to make two posts a day starting in a week.

Anyways, number 14 in the list is Heath Hembree, a power reliever who may have the best stuff out of any pitcher in the Giants minor league system. That being said, despite his power repertoire, Hembree is still a raw commodity of sorts, and there is some concern how he will fare as he moves up the Giants system because his pitch repertoire is so limited as of now.

Hembree originally started his career at South Carolina, but transferred to junior college after 2008 and then made the transition to the College of Charleston in 2010. In his only year in Charleston, he displayed amazing strikeout stuff, as he punched out 42 batters in 29 innings of work. However, despite his strong ability to strike guys out, he also had some control and command problems, as he posted an ERA of 6.52, a WHIP of 1.76, a BB/9 of 5.6 and a K/BB ratio of 2.3. Still though, despite the limited innings in college, scouts were impressed by his stuff and ability, as Baseball America said this in their profile of Hembree in their Prospect Handbook:

"Hembree was a draft curiosity as a seldom-used closer at the College of Charleston, with rumors in the scouting community that he could hit 100 mph. But he also walked 18 in 29 innings and didn't have much track record, and he missed his senior year of high school with a torn ACL he sustained in a football game."

Despite the questions, his size (6-foot, 4-inches and 205 pounds) and velocity prompted the Giants to take a waiver on him in the fifth round of the 2010 draft. In his debut season in Arizona, Hembree struck out 22 batters in 11 innings, and posted an ERA and WHIP of 0.82. What was even more surprising was Hembree's newfound control as he walked zero batters in his 11 innings of work (that's right ZERO).

Of course, 11 innings is such a short sample, but the strong performance in rookie ball suddenly garnered him some attention from prospect analysts everywhere. Baseball America ranked him as the 19th best prospect in the Giants system in their Prospect Handbook, the Minor League Baseball Analyst rated him as the 14th best Giants prospect, and John Sickels ranked him 17 in his Giants Top-20 list. Even ESPN prospect analyst and former Blue Jays front office member Keith Law said Hembree was the Giants' "sleeper" prospect in 2011. This is what Law said in his writeup about Hembree:

"Heath Hembree was a fifth round pick who barely pitched this Spring for College of Charleston, then dominated the Arizona League in his brief time there, striking out 22 of 41 batters without a walk. He hit 98 repeatedly in instructional league in September."

While there was some pressure on Hembree to perform this year with the influx of higher expectations, he has stepped it up and performed admirably this season in the Cal League. He is posting a 0.87 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 20.2 innings of work. Furthermore, the strikeout stuff and solid control and command he displayed in Arizona is still evident in San Jose, as he has struck out 38 batters, walked only 9 and posted a K/BB ratio of 4.22. Hembree has been the Giants' go-to guy in the ninth, as he has accumulated 18 saves this year.

There is a lot to like about Hembree. He is a big, strong pitcher with a power fastball and a power slider (it was graded a four-plus by Rob Gordon in the Minor League Baseball Analyst 2011 annual). Furthermore, he knows how to make batters miss, he doesn't give up many hits (he has only a H/9 of 7.0 this year) and his control and command have been sterling thus far. The only concern I have is that I am concerned about his limited pitch repertoire. He's a two-pitch pitcher for the most part, though there have been reports that he has added a changeup to his arsenal. (Apparently in instructional league the Giants asked him to pitch his changeup 90 percent of the time, and according to Baseball America, it wasn't a "wasted effort.") However, one has to wonder how a two-pitch pitcher will do as he advances in the Giants system. Double-A will be a very telling sign of how he'll project as a pitcher, though considering how limited his experience is on the mound in the past few years, I doubt we'll see Hembree earn a promotion to Richmond this season. He'll probably transition to the Eastern League sometime next year, simply because I'm sure the Giants brass wants to see how he can pitch over a full season at one level.

Hembree is still relatively young, as he is only 22 years old and just a year removed from college. That bodes well in his favor, and allows the Giants to stay patient with Hembree and develop him as a pitcher. They don't need to rush him, and that will only result in good things for Hembree as he continues to gain more professional pitching experience.