OTF Top 30: No. 10, Hector Sanchez, C

No. 10: Hector Sanchez, catcher



Age: 22
Country: Venezuela
Signed: 2006
2011 Regular Season numbers: .302 average, .338 OBP, .533 slugging, .871 OPS, .369 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 31 runs scored, 11 home runs, 58 RBI (High-A); .261 average, .315 OBP, .340 slugging, .655 OPS, .290 wOBA, 58 wRC+, 15 runs scored, 1 home run, 15 RBI (Triple-A); .258 average, .324 OBP, .646 OPS, .292 wOBA, 83 wRC+, 0 runs scored, 0 home runs, 1 RBI (Majors)
2011 Fall/Winter Season numbers: .339 average, .402 OBP, .548 slugging, .950 OPS, 0.49 BB/K ratio, 29 runs scored, 9 home runs, 39 RBI (Venezuela Winter League).


Why you should know about Sanchez in 2012?

Sanchez probably was the highest riser in the Giants system last year. After being left out of the Top-30 Giants prospects list in Baseball America, he jumped all the way to No. 10 this year after playing in the California League, Pacific Coast League and Majors last season. Sanchez is the no. 3 rated catcher according to most analysts and publications, but Sanchez may be the most Major League-ready out of the catching prospects in the Giants system. With Buster Posey's long-term career at catcher in doubt after his horrendous injury a year ago, and with Chris Stewart and Eli Whiteside not very viable backup options behind the plate, it wouldn't be surprising to see Sanchez harness himself a backup backstop position as soon as this season.


What are Sanchez's strengths as a prospect?

Sanchez is coming off a solid, overall season in 2011 and an eye-popping VWL campaign where he hit .330 along with nine home runs. Sanchez profiles very similarly to Pablo Sandoval when Sandoval was a catching prospect in the sense that he doesn't have a ton of power, but he makes good contact at the plate (plus 80 percent contact rate at every level sans his San Jose campaign last year). Furthermore, like Sandoval, while he doesn't draw huge walk rates (he's been around eight percent for his minor league career), he doesn't strike out a whole lot either.

While the power was always a question with Sanchez early in his minor league career, he did post 11 home runs in 212 at-bats in San Jose, which was six more than the total he hit in Augusta in 310 at-bats in 2010. While the power may be a product of the league, Sanchez could be a guy who could hit 10-15 home runs a year with regular playing time (Rob Gordon rated his power as a four-plus). Furthermore, he is only 22 years old, so his power may develop as he gets older in a similar fashion to Sandoval (who was not a highly graded power hitter in the minors).

For the most part, his defense had earned solid, though not spectacular grades. His arm has garnered rave reviews, as Mike Newman noted this about him in his scouting report when Sanchez was manning the backstop as a Green Jacket in 2010:

"In game action, Sanchez beamed a 1.93 to second base to gun down a Sand Gnats baserunner attempting to steal second base which left scouts looking at each other speechless.  Between innings, Sanchez continued to display a strong arm and quick feet.  His transfer needs a bit of work, but behind Christian Bethancourt, Sanchez had the best pop times I saw all season."

In terms of receiving, Newman noted that Sanchez needed a lot of work in terms of technique (Newman noted that he "tended to stab at the ball"), but reports were much better in 2011, as Baseball America noted that he "blocks the ball well" in their Prospect Handbook for 2012. Gordon noted that he is a bit raw in terms of his receiving and blocking skills, so it may be a matter of just getting more experience behind the plate for Sanchez in terms of improving defensively. While he may not be graded as high defensively as an Andrew Susac, he may turn out better than Tommy Joseph, whose defense improved in 2011, but is still a major question mark for him as a prospect as he moves forward.

Also, there are a lot of intangibles that work greatly in Sanchez's favor. His callup and exposure to the Big Leagues gave him some nice professional experience, and he held his own well, both offensively and defensively, a big plus considering he was playing in the Sally the previous year. Furthermore, Baseball America noted that despite limited English he communicates extremely well with pitchers. When you think about how much is invested in the Giants staff, that kind of report only bodes well in his favor in terms of earning playing time at the next level.


Where might Sanchez struggle?

Sanchez still needs a lot of development as a prospect, and his callup could be more hurtful than beneficial in the long run. We have seen prospects get rushed to the big leagues too soon, and though Sanchez didn't hurt his stock with the Giants, he certainly looked like a guy who needed some work in the minors. While the most likely destination for him to begin 2012 is in Fresno, he could earn a backup position with a good Spring Training (and so far, he's off to a good start). While some would say that Sanchez being a backup justifies his status and development as a prospect, I would also take it (should it happen) with some prudence, mainly because he's going to have limited at-bats, and limited opportunities considering Posey is a premium player at the position. He could be above-average as a Major League backup this year, but with more seasoning in the minors, he could turn out to be a good catcher at the Major League level in the future.

As noted, defensively he has gotten mixed reports, though he has gotten better. The one main concern about Sanchez is his frame, as he is 5-foot, 11 inches but sits at 225 pounds. Newman noted this in his report, hinting that his weight could have affected him defensively in 2010. While the Giants training staff has had success in terms of getting guys into playing shape (Sandoval being the prime example), his weight is going to be a concern as he gets older and moves up the system. If Sanchez can stay in shape, then his future will look bright and undoubtedly, his defensive skills will continue their upward progression. If not, then his stock as well as defense could slip, especially considering how difficult the position is on the body.

Another tool that is a bit of a question mark is Sanchez's power. While the 11 home runs in San Jose are nice, inflated power numbers are typical for prospects in the Cal League (and he didn't touch the 10 mark at any other level, and that included ISO numbers, which are pretty pedestrian when you look beyond San Jose). Because he didn't play in Double-A in 2011, it is hard to gauge how much of Sanchez's power is for real, and how much is just due to a hitter-friendly environment. Sanchez most likely will not be a 20-plus home run hitter in his career. That being said, at this point, just judging from his SJ and VWL numbers, it is plausible that he could hit up to 15 home runs with regular playing time. Then again, he could be a 6-8 home run hitter, as his extra base hit percentage never topped 31 sans his SJ campaign. 2012 should be a good gauge for Giants fans and management to see what kind of power Sanchez will bring to the table as a catching prospect.


Grades on Sanchez's tools:

Hitting for average/contact ability: 15/20 (He has showed a strong ability to make contact in the minors, but he has only hit over .300 in the DSL and High-A ball. Sanchez tends to hit too many ground balls, so that severely drops his value. However, he's not a big whiffer, and if he can continue to hone his approach at the plate, it's plausible to think that he could be a .260-.270 hitter at the next level, which would be good for a catcher.)
Power: 13/20 (I'm selling low on this simply because I think his Cal League stats were a product of power inflation. That being said, I didn't think he'd be more than a single-digit home run, sub-.400 slugging hitter prior to 2011, and the strides he made last year and this Winter in the VWL have me thinking differently. If the power continues to trend upward, then Giants could have a nice little bat with some pop off the bench in 2012.)
Plate approach: 17/20 (Other than his arm, this is probably his best tool set. He has consistently posted good BB/K ratios in the minors and that transitioned in his stint in the Majors. The main reason I believe his power could develop is because his plate approach is already so developed for his age. I don't give him an A-ranking because while it's good, it certainly isn't spectacular by any means. That being said, I think his plate approach will continue to carry him at the plate as he gets more experience in the high minors and majors.)
Speed: 11/20 (He's a catcher and he has zero career stolen bases in the minors. Furthermore, with his size, he may be a bit of a base clogger if he doesn't maintain weight. But like I said, he is a catcher, so we shouldn't expect too much out of this grade.)
Defense: 16/20 (His arm is a plus tool of his. His receiving and blocking still need work. But like his power, they're trending upward and he'll only get better with more and more innings behind the plate.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 18/20 (He gets good reviews for his game-calling and work with pitchers, and his improvement in all areas of his game last season despite being an unheralded prospect going into 2011 certainly bode well for his future. At this moment, my gut tells me he's a better option than Whiteside or Stewart, but as I said before, I am hesitant to rush him because I don't want the Giants to hinder his development.)


Overall Grade: B-
Projection: Utility catcher most likely, but with good chance to be a starting catcher if he continues to impress in 2012. At the very worst, a career backup.

Summary: I like Sanchez a lot. Originally, I graded him as a C+, but I amped it up to a B- because I really think he can be a good starting catcher at the Major League level. He doesn't have to potential or upside of a Posey, Joseph or even Susac, but he should be at least above replacement level, which is a heck of a lot better than what the Giants have gotten or will get out of Stewart or Whiteside. 2012 will be an important year, and while I don't think it's a make or break season by any means (remember he's still only 22 years old), he does need to continue to produce offensively and defensively. Any set backs this year would be a huge blow to his future.

Prospect Highlight: Angel Villalona, 1B

I got this idea from OGC, who commented on the update post, and I figured, ever certain number of posts in the Top 30 prospect list I would highlight a certain player who merits some discussion. These posts won't be as long as the Top 30 profiles, but they are pieces to highlight certain players who should still be focused on by Giants fans in 2012.


Why is Angel Villalona Highlighted?

Villalona is probably one of the most interesting stories in the Giants minor league system. In Augusta of 2006, the Giants awarded the 16 year old Villalona with a $2.1 million signing bonus, the highest in team history for an international signing at the time (it would later be surpassed by Rafael Rodriguez). Villalona at the time was considered a man among boys: he had tremendous power, and many experts felt that Villalona could develop into an All-Star calibur player who would regularly hit 30-plus home runs at the Major League level. However, toward the end of the 2009 season, Villalona was charged with murder in his home country, the Dominican Republic. Though charges against him were eventually dropped, his visa was revoked, and Villalona spent two years away from organized baseball. Despite the uncertainty of his future, the Giants still placed Villalona on the 40-man roster at the end of this year (most likely to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft).



What Makes Villalona Interesting?

Villalona has plus power and that was evident in his stints in the lower minors early in his career. He hit 17 home runs in 2008 in Augusta and posted a slugging percentage of .435 as well. While the numbers aren't eye-popping, he did this as a 17 year old, so the fact that he was able to hit with as much power as he did as a teenager against competition 2-4 years older than him is impressive. While his power did decrease in the hitter-friendly California League (his home runs dropped to 9 and slugging dipped under .400 to .397 in 310 plate appearances), he was still considerably young for the league (only 18 in a league which average 22-23 years of age), and did deal with some minor injuries that limited him to almost 200 less plate appearances from the previous season.

Furthermore, the reports from some of the coaches in the organization about Villalona initially were very positive, which gave some hope that despite the average numbers, he was progressing on the right track to stardom. The reports detailed him as a hardworking guy who was showing signs (though inconsistent) of improvement, especially over the course of seasons (e.g. he improved at the plate with more and more at-bats). Here's what Augusta manager Andy Skeels said about Villalona after the 2008 season:

"You come out of Spring Training and they're so young and never experienced a full season, so you don't know what you're going to get. For someone that young, it's a testament to what our staff did and a testament to the kind of kid Angel is. He's a tremendous talent and he dedicated himself much better to becoming a professional."

What keeps Villalona out of the Top 30?

On potential alone, Villalona could be a Top 30 prospect. He was a Top 50 prospect in baseball as recently as 2009. His power tool is that good. Unfortunately, the question of whether or not he is going to play this year stateside only compounds to an already big laundry list of factors working against him as a prospect. Originally billed as a highly athletic, "five tool" potential player out of the DR at the time of his signing, Villalona proved as soon as his first year in professional ball that he was probably a three tool player at best. He didn't have as much speed as expected, and defensively he proved to be nothing special at any level (in two of his three seasons RTZ, or Total Zone Fielding Runs, rated his defense as below average).

In addition to a lack of speed and questionable defense, Villalona had major conditioning issues, as his weight ballooned to the point where the Giants brass moved Villalona from third to first after his first full year in Rookie ball and the Northwest League. While a move from third to first base was also probably the best due to his defensive ability, it certainly hurt his status as a prospect, since his power is a premium for a third base prospect, but probably only above-average for a first base one.

While Villalona's hit tool and power tool have plus potential, his plate approach isn't (and that's putting it nicely). As a matter of fact, the biggest knock against Villalona as a prospect was his total lack of discipline and propensity for swinging at pitches badly out of the strike zone. In his three minor league seasons, his average OBP is .316 and his career BB/K ratio sits at 0.18 (which makes Francisco Peguero look like Kevin Youkilis by comparison). The main issue was his two-strike approach, as he seemingly swung at any and everything out of the strike zone. Add this with a lack of walks (only 42 career walks in 1047 plate appearances), and safe to say there were a lot of strikes against Villalona even before the murder incident occurred.


Can Villalona Improve?

I would like to say "Yes," though I do so with some reservations. I am an optimistic guy and I feel like Villalona should have a new spin on his career after such a life-altering incident. I know Osvaldo Martinez in the White Sox (previously Marlins) had a bit of a career turn-around after he was involved in a shooting in his native Puerto Rico (he was the victim though). I'm hoping Villalona can do the same and really take the bull by the horns after almost losing everything.

That being said, the odds are against Villalona. He's had two years away from the states, and his youth, one of the biggest factors working for him as a prospect, is essentially gone. With two lost minor league seasons, he now has to spend a year (maybe even two) to just get reacquainted with the game again. Also, how in shape Villalona is will be a big issue, since it was a problem when he was here stateside. After two years away from the game, it isn't likely that he's in pristine condition (though I do hope he's in at least decent shape, and despite the visa denial saying otherwise, I think he had kept okay care of himself, from reports I have read).

The Giants will need to be patient with Villalona as he works toward being a viable prospect in their system once again. He still is only 21 years old, so there is some time in his favor (though obviously not as much as before). Nonetheless, Villalona is a high risk, high reward kind of player, whose future is extremely murky at this point. So while he may have the potential to recapture the lofty status he once held, it is also highly possible that the Giants made a big mistake putting him on the 40-man roster (I don't think it was, considering how many players have turned into studs from the Rule 5 draft, but we'll see).

Whatever the future may hold for Villalona, it is unlikely that Giants fans will get a good idea of what his future projection will be after this year. Most likely, we won't know Villalona's true future projection for at least a couple of more seasons.

Final Changes to the OTF Top 30 List

I know prospect lists should be final, but I had to make a final tweak to the rankings. With Angel Villalona's visa being delayed, the possibility of him not playing another year is very real (though I do think he'll get here at some point). The main reason for the delay allegedly is that he is applying for a visa meant for athletes and apparently his physical shape didn't check out with those dispersing visas for such athletes. That report scares me and makes me less optimistic that he'll recapture the potential he had when he was playing in the minors as recently as 2009.

So, I added two others at the No. 30 spot, since I felt they were both deserving. I added pitcher Chris Marlowe and outfielder Roger Kieschnick. Marlowe is a relief pitcher out of Oklahoma State whose frame and strikeout ability has gotten Tim Lincecum-comparisons, while Kieschnick is a bit of a tumbler but did post solid power numbers in the Eastern League a year ago.

This should be the last change and I apologize for all the flip-flopping. I just want to get these rankings as accurate as possible and the later rankings are always the toughest.

OTF Top 30: No. 9, Eric Surkamp, LHP

No. 9: Eric Surkamp, left-handed pitcher.



Age: 24
Drafted: Sixth round (177th overall) in the 2008 MLB Draft
College: North Carolina State
2011 Regular season numbers: 10-4 W-L, 23 games, 142.1 innings pitched, 37 runs allowed, 110 hits allowed, 44 walks, 165 strikeouts, 2.02 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.37 FIP, 3.75 BB/K ratio (Double-A). 2-2 W-L, 6 games, 26.2 IP, 32 hits allowed, 18 runs allowed, 17 walks, 13 strikeouts, 5.74 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 4.68 FIP, 0.76 BB/K ratio (MLB).
2011 Fall/Winter League numbers: None


Why you should know about Surkamp in 2012:

Surkamp is one of the more enigmatic pitching prospects in the Giants system. Scouts don't think he has the velocity to be anything more than a back-of-the-rotation or spot starter at the next level. On the other hand, stat guys point out that his dominance and command rates illustrate that he has the potential to be a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter in the Big Leagues. Surkamp's future probably lies somewhere in the middle (hopefully), but his brief Major League stint in 2011 didn't do anything to sway critical scouts in the other direction. Surkamp won't spend much time in the minors in 2012 (he most likely is starting in Fresno barring injury AND an incredible Spring), but he'll be an interesting arm to keep an eye out on, especially if Barry Zito or Ryan Vogelsong struggle in the rotation.


What are Surkamp's strengths as a prospect?

After being drafted in the sixth round out of NC State, Surkamp appeared to profile as a low-ceiling pitcher who could advance quickly in the minors. Not only has Surkamp advanced in the Giants system (even though he did start out his career in the Sally his first full season), but he has pretty much dominated at every level in the Minors.

Surkamp sports plus control and command, and has demonstrated that with excellent walk to strikeout ratios in the Minors, and his tenure in Richmond last season was probably his most impressive stint yet. In 142.1 innings pitched, he struck out 165 while only allowing 44 free passes, good for a BB/K ratio of 3.75 and a FIP of 2.37. Even though the Eastern League tends to favor pitchers, Surkamp's numbers in Richmond were no fluke, as he was dominant in Augusta in 2009 and San Jose in 2010 as well, posting BB/K ratios of 4.33 and 4.19, respectively. His San Jose numbers are especially impressive since the Cal League tends to favor hitters, and despite those circumstances working against him in 2010, he still managed to post a FIP of 2.54.

While he doesn't sport tremendous velocity on his fastball (it is graded a three-plus by Rob Gordon of the MiLBA and it sits in the 87-90 MPH range), his deceptive three-quarters pitching motion, excellent control and plus curve ball have contributed heavily to his dominance in the minors. Daniel Jarrett of MLB Prospect Portal gave Surkamp positive reviews in a game report of a Surkamp start against the Akron Aeros on May 29th, noting this about Surkamp in his report:

"Surkamp's fastball was topping out around 90 MPH, but he showed great command of his offspeed pitches, mixing them in to keep the Aeros lineup off balance all game. His changeup and curveball both rate as plus pitches but his fastball will be big league average at best, even if he's able to add an MPH or two as he continues to get stronger...

It's not often you see a pitcher with a league average fastball who is able to record as many strikeouts as Surkamp, but its a credit to the quality of his secondary pitches and his poise on the mound. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain those rates throughout his career but his definitely has the pitchability to be a successful big league pitcher. His upside is likely as a #2 or #3 starter, who can log plenty of quality innings while giving his team a chance to win each and every night."

Surkamp doesn't have the stuff or ceiling of a pitcher like Kyle Crick or previous pitching prospects in the Giants system such as Zack Wheeler (currently in the Mets organization) or Madison Bumgarner. However, he is a prospect who knows how to pitch and has displayed excellent poise and presence on the mound at every stop in the Minors. It's those intangibles that make Surkamp such an interesting prospect, and help make up what he lacks in terms of tools and velocity.



Where might Surkamp struggle?

Surkamp was called up to the Majors late last season and did not impress in his six-start "cup of coffee" with the Big League club. Not only was he extremely hittable (he allowed 10.8 hits per nine innings), but he displayed none of the dominance, control or command that made him such a great prospect in the minors. His BB/K ratio was putrid at 0.76, amplified by a walk rate of 5.7 (he never posted a walk rate higher than 3.2 in the minors, and that was in his first season of professional ball at Salem Keizer).

It made sense why Surkamp didn't dominate in the Majors like he did in the Minors in 2011. His stuff really isn't all that impressive. Despite sporting good size at six-feet, four inches and a 190 pounds, Surkamp tops out at 90 MPH on his fastball and is consistently in the 87-89 range. While that is passable for a Major League starter, it leaves little room for error and it certainly isn't the velocity one would expect from a major pitching prospect. Furthermore, Surkamp is a three pitch pitcher, and while his curve has gotten good reports, his changeup has gotten mixed results (most likely due to the fact that his fastball doesn't generate a lot of speed). While asking Surkamp to develop a fourth pitch at this stage of his professional career is a huge stretch, Surkamp most likely has to develop his current pitch repertoire even more to be successful. How he will induce groundballs at the Major League level will probably be the key to his success. since I doubt his 10.6 career K/9 will translate. According to Baseball America in their handbook, his two seam fastball does tail, sink and induce groundballs, but that was hardly evident at the big league level, as he only posted a GB/FB rate of 0.91 (though the 26.1 line drive rate probably had something to do with it being so low).

Hence, the big question about Surkamp is this: can his repertoire and approach transition to the Major League level? Or is Surkamp simply one of those pitchers that can succeed against marginal talent, but not against elite hitters with better approaches? The tenure in San Francisco suggests the latter, but it was only a short six-game sample, and Surkamp had logged 142.1 innings in Richmond and six innings in San Jose in addition to his stint with the Giants. Surkamp may have just been a bit worn out, and wasn't ready or in the proper shape to face Major League hitters. Of course, that's just theory, and Giants fans won't really know how Surkamp will fare in the long run at the Major League level until he logs a larger sample.


Grades on Surkamp's Tools:

Fastball: 15/20 (It certainly isn't impressive in terms of velocity, but his two seamer does offer some hope that he can induce groundballs at the next level. His size does suggest that he has the potential to increase the velocity on his fastball, but even then, it'll probably be an increase of 1-2 MPH at best. Whether the velocity increases or not, he'll need to rely on more than just his fastball at the next level in order to be successful.)
Curveball: 17/20 (His curve, according to Baseball America, is knowing for finishing off pitchers, and it has good sweeping action at 75-78 MPH according to Gordon. While we're not look at a Barry Zito-esque curve here, it is a plus secondary pitch that Surkamp will probably hinge on in order to be successful as a starting pitcher. He locates it well, so he has that going in his favor.)
Changeup: 16/20 (The report vary, but his changeup did show signs of effectiveness at times in 2011. While his lack of fastball velocity doesn't maximize the value of his changeup, Baseball America did report that it works well against right handed hitters. Considering how Tim Lincecum's success in 2010 hinged on his changeup despite a decrease in fastball velocity from the previous year, this could be the pitch in Surkamp's repertoire that makes or breaks Surkamp's projection as a Major League pitcher.)
Mechanics: 18/20 (His three quarters delivery is deceptive, and his tall frame further makes things difficult for opposing hitters when it comes to seeing his pitches. On tape, Surkamp has a steady delivery that moves smoothly and doesn't exert too much effort.  His easy delivery probably prohibits him from getting more behind his fastball, but I will take the added control and command of his delivery over one that inhibits more speed, but more wildness in his pitches.)
Command/Control: 19/20 (A huge plus tool of his. Surkamp is fearless and isn't afraid to attack hitters inside despite sporting an average fastball. While this wasn't the case in San Francisco (he was too nitpicky in his callup), his track record shows that he has the potential to bounce back in 2012 and display the command that made him such a fast riser in the Giants system. While I think the K/9 rates won't translate at the Major League level, I do think his control will, which will equalize the regression in strikeouts in the Big Leagues.)
Ceiling: 16/20 (He probably projects as a back-end starter, maybe a 3rd starter at best. Furthermore, at his age, he really doesn't have much more room for development, so it's kind of now or never right now for Surkamp. Still though, if he can recapture the control he showed in the Minors at the Big League level, he could be a valuable fourth or fifth starter for the Giants as soon as this season.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 16/20 (He suffered a torn labrum in his hip in 2010 which ended his San Jose campaign early, but he rebounded from surgery in 2011 and posted solid numbers. While he doesn't have a massive injury history, the hip injury in 2010 will be something to watch out for in the near future. Surkamp also was a sixth round pick, so that goes against him in terms of projection (usually less-heralded guys are less-heralded for a reason). That being said, Surkamp has a good work ethic and has adjusted well at every stop he has been at, so that definitely bodes well in his favor.)


Overall grade: B-
Projection: No. 4 or No. 5 Major League starting pitcher; could be spot starter or long innings reliever.

Summary: Surkamp has garnered quite the fan base amongst Giants fans which can be a good thing (Pablo Sandoval) or misleading (John Bowker). I love Surkamp's repertoire and approach as a pitcher, which I think makes up for his average tools as a pitcher. While I think the stint in San Francisco isn't a total indicator of Surkamp's potential in the Major Leagues, I think it was a warning sign for a lot of Giants fans who felt Surkamp was in line to achieve automatic success at the Big League level like Madison Bumgarner. He just doesn't have the tools like Bumgarner to be that dominant. However, if he can recapture his control and confidence, then it is likely to see Surkamp achieve some success on the Giants staff. He won't have have much room for error, but it certainly isn't out of the question.

OTF Top 30: No. 8, Kyle Crick, RHP

No. 8: Kyle Crick, right-handed pitcher



Age: 19
Drafted: 16th pick in the Supplemental First Round (49th overall) in the 2011 MLB Draft
High School: Sherman High School (Texas)
2011 Regular Season numbers: 7 games, 7.0 innings pitched, 9 hits allowed, 8 runs allowed, 8 walks, 8 strikeouts, 6.43 ERA, 2.43 WHIP, 4.77 FIP, 1.00 BB/K ratio (Arizona Rookie League).
2011 Fall/Winter League numbers: None


Why you should know about Crick in 2012:

A heralded prep arm in a prep-heavy pitching class in the 2011 draft, Crick went to the Giants' slot at No. 49. The pick was heralded by some analysts, including  ESPN's Keith Law, who gave the Giants high marks for the selection (and remember, he lambasted the Joe Panik pick in the first round). Considering how thin the pitching ranks are with the graduation Madison Bumgarner in 2010 and the trade of Zack Wheeler in 2011, Crick has the most potential out of any current pitching prospect in the Giants system. Of course, Crick is still very young and only pitched seven innings in a limited Rookie League campaign in 2011. While the brief stint in the AZL didn't impress statistically, he's still a projectable pitcher with a high ceiling and a lot of time for development. If he can take to the Giants' pitching instruction (and all signs point that he will), then he will certainly be on a lot of baseball analysts' radar in 2013.



What are Crick's Strengths as a Prospect?

The reports on Crick prior to the 2011 draft were very stellar, as John Klima of the Baseball Prospect Report (formerly Baseball Beginnings) had a lot of sterling things to say about Cricks' performances in high school (he saw him in person twice). At the time, Crick was committed to go and play ball at TCU, but Klima pointed out at the time that he had the potential to be a very high draft pick in the 2011 draft. Here's what Klima said in his scouting report:

"I had a brief look at Texas right-hander Kyle Crick over the summer. I liked him. Yes, I did. So did TCU, who scooped some of the other Texas schools to land his commitment. I have a sneaky feeling that the draft might play a role for this guy, but as time and experience have taught us, you never know which way a guy goes until after the dust settles...

Strengths: FB 89-93, comfortable 90-92, hard downhill with tail, heavy ball. Can reach back for a little more and elevate when needed. SL 81-83 with hard bite, go-to weapon. Hard and late. Split 81 with hard drop. Straight CHG 80-81, assume those weren’t flat sliders, secondary SL 72-73 with drop."

Klima gave him an OFP of 54, with his fastball and slider earning 50/65 and 40/55 grades respectively. His control was a bit of concern in Klima's reports, as he only graded it a 30/55, but Klima was very high on Crick's mechanics, noting that his "arm smooth through back, body sometimes out in front of arm, arm catches up, gets extension and balanced landings."

For the most part, a lot of the reports on Crick's were very similar to Klima's. Crick pretty much slipped to the Giants' supplemental slot due to a bevy of talented pitching going in the first round (including prep arms Henry Owens, Joe Ross and Robert Stephenson). Crick dominated in high school, going 7-2 with a 1.11 ERA in 13 starts as a senior, and the remarks he got from his high school coach were also glowing as well:

"He's got the most powerful arm I've ever coached," Senato told the Texas Herald Democrat. "He's got a lot of upside -- he's not a polished product at all. His changeup's going to be better, and he's got more velocity in his arm. He can get to 97 or 98 mph at some point."

Of course, high school numbers and coaches' remarks always have to be taken with a grain of salt (what is his coach going to say? "Oh he sucks! The Giants made a huge mistake!"), but Crick seems to be a prospect with real potential. Even if you don't look at the velocity and grades on his pitches, his size alone (six-foot, three inches, 225 pounds) makes him an interesting prospect and gives him potential for a lot of velocity. And when you watch him on tape, there is a lot to like about his pitching motion, as he has a smooth delivery and seems to hide the ball well.

Furthermore, the fact that Crick got some playing experience after signing was a huge plus in his favor. While it wasn't the best stint, it was more professional experience than what other draft picks Andrew Susac or Ricky Oropesa or Josh Osich garnered last year (they had none). The exposure to professional pitching, hitting and instruction from last year's stint undoubtedly will make it a smoother transition for him in 2012, especially considering all the "draft hoopla" has worn off since his stint.



Where might Crick struggle?

Crick is years away from reaching his peak, and his stint in the Arizona Rookie League showed that. He struggled with control and command, as he gave up eight walks, nine hits and eight runs in seven innings of work in Arizona. Of course, he was just 18 years old and just coming off signing a $900 K signing bonus, so it is likely that he may have either been a little distracted or overwhelmed when he made his professional debut in 2011.

Still, Crick's control is always going to be an issue. As noted before, it was one of his lower grades in Klima's scouting report, and if he wants to have a career as a starting pitcher, he needs to be able to get those issues resolved, even if it is at a gradual pace. If he continues to walk hitters at the high rate he displayed in the AZL last year, then his career as a starter might be short, which in turn, would be a massive hit to his status as a prospect.

While Crick has a solid fastball and slider combination, he still needs work on his third and fourth pitches. He does sport a change and split finger fastball, but they haven't graded out as impressive pitches by any stretch of the imagination. With instruction, I am hopeful that he'll be able to hone a third pitch and at least make a fourth pitch average or slightly below. That being said, that might take a couple of seasons before we see the result of that instruction pay off, especially considering it will be his first full year as a professional in 2012, and he will just be learning how to pitch in general.

One the main weaknesses that has been noted about Crick is his strength and stamina as a pitcher, as it was a bit of a question mark in high school. While his stamina wasn't noted as poor by any measure, he only pitched 13 games in high school, so he has to get acclimated quickly to a full professional season. With his size and already solid frame (225 pounds), his conditioning will be important. If he doesn't stay in shape, it won't be hard to see his frame get out of control and hurt his stamina. While I think he's still young enough to stay in the current shape he's in, and I think management will keep a close eye on Crick (simply due to their investment in him). A pitcher's condition and stamina are always important aspects to keep tabs on, especially as they are breaking into the professional level and getting accustomed to the habits it takes to be a Major League pitcher (let's just say very few pitchers can get away with the Livan Hernandez Diet Plan).


Grades on Crick's tools:

Fastball: 17/20 (Solid now, but with the potential to grade much higher as he gets older and more developed as a pitcher. Currently his fastball goes in the 89-93 MPH range and comfortably in the 90-92 MPH range according to Klima. But, as noted before, his size gives him room for potential, as it could sit in the 93-95 MPH range in the next year or two.)
Slider: 17/20 (His best secondary pitch, Crick's slider ranges from 81-83 MPH and has good movement and a hard bite, according to Klima. If his fastball continues to keep or gain velocity, then I could see this pitch being even more effective in the future.)
Changeup/Split Finger: 13/20 (The reports are nothing special on these two pitches. His changeup, according to reports, is 80-81 MPH but is pretty straight. As for his split, it has a hard drop and sits in the 81 MPH range. If he wants to hold his own as a starting pitcher prospect, he's going to need to develop one or even both of these pitches.)
Mechanics: 17/20 (Klima was high on his mechanics, and on tape, his delivery and motion look pretty clean. He has fluid movement and moves quickly to the plate. Also, I like the way his motion disguises the ball, which only makes things look faster and harder to hit for batters. I bet there will be some tweaks done by the pitching staffs in the Giants organization, but Crick gives them a solid foundation to work with).
Command/Control: 13/20 (Klima noted that he had some work to do with his control, and his Rookie League stats showed that. Furthermore, he learned quickly that he isn't simply going to dominate hitters as easily as he did in Texas High School ball. I think his struggles with command and control are correctable, but he has a lot to work on in 2012.)
Ceiling: 17/20 (With the combination of his fastball/power slider combo, Crick already profiles as a solid Major League pitcher. Whether or not he will become a mainstay in the Giants' rotation depends on how well he develops his third and fourth pitches. If he that development happens, he could be a starting pitcher with a No. 2 ceiling. If not, then he's probably destined for the bullpen.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 18/20 (He's gotten high remarks from the organization (John Barr was very high on Crick after they drafted him) as well as from the scouting community, and he signed early enough to at least get some work in the Rookie League before the 2011 season ended. Crick still has a long road to go as a prospect, and as we have seen in the past, the road of a pitching prospect is often an unpredictable one. But right now, it seems like Crick is on the right path for success.)


Overall Grade: B-
Projection: Starting Major League pitcher. Best case: No. 2 starter. Worst case: Middle innings reliever.

Summary: I'm conservative with the Crick grade because a.) He's barely out of high school and b.) his Rookie League stint wasn't all the impressive (though it was a VERY small sample). That being said, I do think Crick can progress to be a B or B+ pitching prospect in the near future. He sports impressive size and tools, and the Giants have an excellent track record when it comes to developing pitching in their minor league system. Crick has the kind of raw skills and size that Matt Cain sported when he was drafted out of high school in the 2002 draft. Am I saying he's going to be a carbon copy of Cain? Of course not, but he has that potential, and if he pans out and develops in the Minors, then I think he could project to be a Cain-esque pitcher for the Giants in the future.

OTF Top 30: No. 7, Francisco Peguero, OF

No. 7: Francisco Peguero, outfielder



Age: 23
Country: Dominican Republic
Signed: 2006
2011 Regular Season numbers: .324 average, .387 OBP, .441 Slugging, .828 OPS, .387 wOBA, 125 wRC+, 12 runs scored, 2 home runs, 4 stolen bases (High-A). .309 average, .318 OBP, .446 Slugging, .763 OPS, .340 wOBA, 109 wRC+, 34 runs scored, 5 home runs, 8 stolen bases (Double-A).
2011 Winter League numbers: .264 average, .312 OBP, .345 slugging, .657 OPS, 0.29 BB/K ratio, 5 runs scored, 1 home run, 3 stolen bases (Dominican Winter League).


Why you should know about Peguero in 2012?

Behind Gary Brown, Peguero rates as the Giants' best outfield prospect. Unlike Brown, Peguero may be ready for the big leagues as soon as this season. He already completed Double-A, and held his own with the bat (albeit with flaws). Furthermore, Peguero has five tool potential as a player, with stellar defensive abilities (he sports solid range and arm strength) as well as good speed on the basepaths. However, the projections on Peguero vary amongst analysts and scouts. Some believe he has the potential to be a very good Major League player. Some on the other hand, don't believe Peguero's free-swinging approach will translate very well to the next level. Either way, 2012 will be a very interesting year for the Dominican outfielder, especially if (and most likely when) he gets a call up to the Big League club.


What are Peguero's strengths as a prospect?

Peguero's strength is his bat, and he has showcased impressive hitting skills at every Minor League level he has played at since signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. He sports a minor league career batting average of .312 and has posted an average contact rate of 85.2 the past five stops from 2009-2011 (which included Salem-Keizer, Augusta, San Jose, and Richmond). To make things better, Peguero's power has improved as he has gotten older and started to fill out his 5-feet, 11-inches frame. In 2010 in 510 at-bats, he posted a career high .488 slugging and .159 ISO in the California League with San Jose, and last year in the Eastern League, he posted a .137 ISO along with a 26 percent extra base hit percentage (only one percent lower than his extra base hit percentage in San Jose in 2010). Considering the Eastern League tends to suppress hitters' power, Peguero's ability to show some pop was pretty impressive, especially since it was his debut campaign in Double-A.

However, hitting isn't the only strength of Peguero's, as he sports strong abilities on the basepaths (Rob Gordon of the MiLBA graded his speed as a four-plus out of five) and in the field (his defense was also graded as a four-plus). Though he only stole 12 bases last year between High-A and Double-A, Peguero was recovering from a knee injury, so the regression in stolen bases was to be expected. However, in a fully healthy season in 2010, he stole 40 bags and a combined 22 between Salem Keizer and Augusta in 2009. While he may not be a 30 stolen base guy by any stretch of the imagination, he does have 15-20 potential, especially with his power maturing and knee starting to recover.

From a scouting standpoint, analysts and professional scouts love the tools Peguero brings to the table. Some scouts make the Vlad Guerrero comparison often, due to his free-swinging nature, ability to make contact and rocket arm in the outfield (Baseball America graded him as having the best outfield arm in the Giants system). While I think the Guerrero comparison is a tad over-optimistic, he is impressive to watch on tape and on the field (I got a chance to watch him in San Jose in a short stint he had in the Cal League in 2011). Furthermore, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com was especially glowing of Peguero, as he rated him the No. 2 prospect in the Giants system and 99th prospect overall. Here's what Mayo said in his scouting report of Peguero:

"Peguero has tools galore and tries to use them with an all-or-nothing style. He’s very aggressive at the plate, a free swinger who doesn’t walk at all but also doesn’t strike out, making contact with anything and everything. He runs the bases the same way, and he has the speed to be a basestealing threat. His power hasn’t really shown up in games consistently yet, but he’s got pop in his bat for sure. He moved over to right field last year, partially because he was coming back from a knee injury. His strong arm works well there, but he was back in center field in the Dominican this winter."

Where could Peguero struggle as a prospect?

The biggest issue for Peguero is his plate approach, which frankly isn't very good. Yes, he makes consistent contact and doesn't strike out a lot. That being said, Peguero doesn't draw any walks, and that's putting it nicely. His career BB/K ratio is 0.23, and he has only drawn 80 walks in 2106 plate appearances in the Minor Leagues (yes, you read that right). Last year in Richmond, he only garnered five walks in 296 plate appearances (which is 1.7 percent).

Of course, having a lack of walks at the professional level isn't necessarily a bad thing. Guerrero and Pablo Sandoval  never drew a lot of walks in their Minor League careers either. That being said, to compare within the organization, Sandoval did post 97 walks in 1924 plate appearances in the Minors, and even his plate approach was questioned by some. The fact that a notorious free-swinging prospect like Sandoval drew 17 more walks in almost 200 less plate appearances than Peguero should be a big warning sign about Peguero's plate approach. He did get away with it in the lower levels, and he was successful in Richmond, so there is hope that his plus-hit tool will carry him as a professional. However, it will be interesting to see how he will fare once he starts to face better pitching and once teams get better scouting reports on him. If his BABIP dips, his numbers could take a catastrophic hit, especially considering his offensive production is so heavily weighted on him hitting for high average.

Another miniscule issue one could find with Peguero is what position he should play. While he has played center field most of his career, he moved to right field due to injury in 2011. While he profiles well there defensively (especially considering AT&T's dimensions, which require athletic right fielders), he may not hit for enough power at the corner outfield positions. Furthermore, with Gary Brown rating just as high, if not better defensively (at least in terms of range), Peguero could find himself stuck behind or moving around out-of-place when Brown catches up with him. I think Peguero would be ideal at right for the Giants (just because so much is demanded from right fielders defensively at AT&T), but his "tweener" outfielder status could present a problem in the future.


Grades on Peguero's tools:

Hitting for average/contact ability: 19/20 (I really love Peguero's hit tool. His contact rates have been consistently stellar, and he has hit for high average everywhere he's played. His swing is short and smooth, and despite the aggressiveness, his bat just doesn't miss the ball often. To me, that's just a huge plus in his favor, for it's not easy to replicate High-A offensive numbers in Double-A.)
Plate Approach: 12/20 (He gets killed heavily here, and it's the reason why he only profiles as a B prospect in my book. The BB/K ratios are atrocious and even for a free swinger, the lack of walks is disturbing and a huge red flag. Do I think he can improve the approach? Certainly, but he is already going to be 24 next season and after a season in Double-A, I don't know how much instruction will help his approach at this point. I'm not trying to be pessimistic of course, but at this point in a player's career, usually a player's approach is what it is, and his approach is not a blueprint for consistent success at the Major League level.)
Power: 16/20 (It's still developing, but Peguero's power is maturing to the point where he really does profile as a legitimate five-tool player. I don't think he'll be a 20-plus home run hitter, as his career high was 10 in 2010 in the hitter-friendly California League, but he certainly will be a threat for high slugging numbers and a lot of doubles and triples simply due to his speed. I think if he can hone his approach at the plate even a little bit, he could be a 10-15 home run guy at the Major League level. If not, then he probably profiles more as an 8-12 home run hitter.)
Speed: 18/20 (I'm curious to see how his speed will fare post-knee injury, but for the most part, Peguero's speed is a plus tool in his arsenal. 40 stolen bases in 2010 is nothing to shrug at, and he certainly has 20 stolen base potential at the next level. Furthermore, he has showed a strong knack for stretching out extra base hits, as his plus-20 percent extra base hit rates in Augusta, San Jose and Richmond have illustrated.)
Defense: 18/20 (He may be a bit of a tweener, but his tools fit well in AT&T park. His arm isn't as strong as Schierholtz's but it's close and still above average nonetheless. As with his abilities on the basepaths, I wonder how his knee injury will affect his fielding in the future, but there weren't any major issues in San Jose or Richmond last year and the reports were good on his play in center in the Dominican Winter League this past off-season. He may not be a Gold Glover, but he has the range, athleticism and arm to be a solid defender for years to come.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 15/20 (The knee injury he suffered prior to 2011 is a big warning sign, simply because you never know how those will turn out. Some are just temporary set backs, some tend to linger over the years. Time will only tell how his knee holds up and how it will affect his skills. Another issue is the fact that the Giants have progressed Peguero slowly in the system, as he has repeated almost every level in his Minor League career. Granted, that's not a bad thing, and Peguero signed young enough to where repeating didn't hinder his development. Still, at 24, Peguero's time to break into the Majors is now. If he doesn't make the Majors at some point in 2012, it would be a tremendous disappointment and set back for him as a prospect.)


Overall grade: B
Projection: Starting Major League outfielder; at the very worst, a utility outfielder.

Summary: To me, Peguero resembles an Austin Jackson-esque player. He has solid tools, including speed and defense, but the offense is a huge question mark simply because of the "swing first, walk never" approach (e.g. Shawon Dunston's dream). Peguero's offensive production is always going to be heavily reliant on his BABIP, and as Jackson showed last season, a regression in the BABIP could mean a huge regression in production. Granted, a Jackson-esque player isn't a bad thing to have (he was a runner up for the Rookie of the Year award in 2010), but to think Peguero is going to be a sure-thing outfielder at the Major League level isn't for certain. 2012 is going to be a make or break year for Peguero. If he continues to hit wherever he starts (I am guessing Fresno, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him start in Richmond just considering how slowly they have progressed him), then he may have a bright future as a potential starting outfielder for the Giants starting in 2013. However, if that BABIP regresses...then well...it's not going to look good for Peguero, as he is just going to profile as that free-swinging outfielder who'll put up great Minor League numbers, but just can't hack it at the Major League level against elite pitching.

What Giants Fans (Mostly Myself) Learned from "Bowkermania!"

(Photo courtesy of Crazy Crabbers.com)

In 2009, John Bowker burst onto the Giants fan scene like no other. He became pretty much the "favorite son" of Giants fans and bloggers everywhere, who came up with terms like "Bowkermania!" and "Free Bowker!"

Of course, there was some interest in the free-swinging lefty in 2008, who got off to a torrid start with the Giants where he hit eight home runs in the first three months of play, and posted a slash of .325/.373/.584 in the month of June. However, a down July sent him to the bench, and for the remainder of the year in 2008, Bowker was pretty much an afterthought in the Giants organization.

But 2009 was the real jump off for Bowker, and it all started with that 2009 season of his in the Pacific Coast League.

Bowker put up incredible numbers in the PCL as a 25 year old, posting a slash of .342/.451/.596 with an OPS of 1.047 in 450 plate appearances with the Fresno Grizzlies. Yes, the 21 home runs were impressive, as was the OPS, but what really turned a lot of Giants fans' heads around (especially the stat heavy guys) was Bowker's suddenly honed approach at the plate.

Prior to 2009, Bowker's approach at the plate profiled as one of a free-swinging power hitter who struck out a good amount and didn't draw a lot of walks to boot. In 2007 in San Jose, he posted an OPS of .762 but only sported a meager BB/K ratio of 0.37. In 2008, his power numbers jumped in Connecticut despite the pitcher-friendly environments of the Eastern League, as he hit 22 home runs and posted an OPS of .886 in 587 plate appearances with the Defenders. Unfortunately, despite the jump in power, the approach at the plate didn't get much better, as he finished the year with a BB/K ratio of 0.40. While Bowker certainly had the potential to hit with power at the Big League level (and he flashed that in his short campaign in 2008), many people believed that his approach at the plate would prevent him from achieving consistent success as a Major League player.

In 2009 though, that all changed as his BB/K ratio suddenly spiked to 1.16. That's right. He improved his BB/K ratio by 76 points from Double-A Connecticut and 90 points from his brief stint with the Giants (his BB/K ratio was 0.26 in San Francisco). Bowker suddenly went from an outfielder with utility potential to starting potential, perhaps even All-Star potential.

Or so that's what all of us Giants fans wanted to believe.

In reality, we should have tempered the expectations.

As Grant Brisbee eloquently put it in this piece on the McCovey Chronicles, Bowker was such a beloved figure amongst Giants fans because he was the kind of player offensively in Fresno that was the polar opposite of what Giants fans were seeing on a daily basis in the outfield. Randy Winn had no patience at the plate and added minimal power to boot. Fred Lewis was a strikeout machine. Aaron Rowand couldn't lay off balls in the dirt to save his life. Eugenio Velez was Eugenio Velez. With his unbelievable numbers in Triple-A, Giants fans felt that if they could even get a modicum of that production at the Big League level, then he would be an upgrade over whatever the Giants had trotting out in the outfield in 2009.

Alas, he couldn't translate his impressive numbers as a Grizzly to the Major League club. In a short cup of coffee (73 plate appearances), Bowker put up a .194 average, .620 OPS and a BB/K ratio of 0.22 (actually worse than his 2008 call up). He looked less like the guy who was dominating PCL pitchers like Barry Bonds, and more like the guy in July of 2008 who didn't have a clue at the plate.

It didn't stop Giants fans like us though from believing in Bowkermania. Giants fans (including myself) pointed out a myriad of reasons why the skills didn't translate from Triple-A to the Major Leagues. He wasn't getting enough at-bats. The hitting philosophy under Carney Lansford didn't suit his style. The organization was putting too much pressure on Bowker to produce right away, and not enough on guys like Winn or Velez.

To be honest, the Giants did everything they could to give Bowker the job in 2010. They hired Hensely Meulens from Fresno as the Giants hitting coach, and they didn't bring back Winn. Furthermore, they made the competition between Bowker and Nate Schierholtz for the starting right field job in Spring Training, and after out-performing Nate in Spring Training, they handed the right field position to Bowker on Opening Day.

And still, Bowker couldn't produce. After a 90 plate appearance and .207/.254/.356 campaign as the Giants' right fielder, the Giants organization sent him down to Fresno and then included him in a trade package that eventually netted them lefty-specialist Javier Lopez from Pittsburgh. In the span of a year, Bowkermania in San Francisco was done, and two years later, Bowkermania was finished in Major League Baseball, as Bowker was released from the Phillies after last season to pursue a career in Japan (he signed with the Yomiuri Giants).

Bowker isn't the only example of Giants fans over-hoping for a prospect. Kevin Frandsen, Lance Niekro, Todd Linden, Jesse Foppert, Jerome Williams, Merkin Valdez, and Dante Powell are all examples of prospects Giants fans have had high hopes for, only to see them flail at the MLB level. After Bowker and the creation of this blog, Bowkermania taught me four things:


1.) Look at skills, not stats...and look at those skills at all levels, not just one.

Ron Shandler is a big proponent of this in his forecast. Though it is mostly referring to fantasy baseball purposes, the same rings true for prospects. You have to look at what his tools are and how they translate into the numbers, and not just the numbers themselves (or even the tools themselves, because as we know, some guys sport tremendous tools but can't back it up into good numbers). In addition, I would add onto this by saying that looking at all the "skill-related" numbers at all levels is equally important. Bowker didn't really flash any plate patience until he got to Fresno. His BB/K ratio and walk numbers were pedestrian at best from the Northwest League to the Eastern League. At the end of the day, one year of good plate patience is just that: one good year. Add that with the fact that he didn't show that at the Major League level, and Bowker pretty much proved to be the player we all thought he would be pre-2009: a free swinging lefty with some pop, but not a lot of discipline.

2.) Position is key.

If Bowker was a third baseman or catcher, perhaps the Giants would have had more patience with him. That being said, with a glut of outfielders such as Rowand, Mark Derosa, Nate Schierholtz, etc., Bowker didn't have much room for error. Add that with the mid-season signing of Pat Burrell and the writing was pretty much on the wall for Bowker. That is why, in my mind, position is such a key thing for prospects. It's the reason why a guy like Pablo Sandoval loses value if he moves from third to first base or if Tommy Joseph moves from catcher to first base. As first baseman, those guys not only struggle to compete with others at the position around the league, but they even pale in their own organization, as Brandon Belt is far superior to them defensively and perhaps offensively. Bowker was a corner outfielder whose lone "strength" was his bat, and when he didn't show that bat at the Big League level, he became expendable because there is usually a lot of depth in organizations when it comes to outfielders.

3.) Pay attention to trends in the leagues.

Brian Sabean said in an interview once that Triple-A pitching "wasn't very good." While he was referring to Buster Posey and he came off as condescending, Sabean has a point. Triple-A pitching isn't good. For the most part, Triple-A pitchers are journeyman who can't find a spot on the 25-man roster or prospects who have struggled at the Major League level and are taking some time for seasoning or to work on some things. Triple-A pitchers have some kind of flaw one way or the other, and one can't automatically believe that one's Triple-A numbers will automatically translate (even partially) to the Big League level. The California League is the same issue, as the environments greatly favor hitters, much like the Pacific Coast League. As for the Eastern League, the environments tend to favor pitchers, and one has to take some pitchers' numbers (mostly ERA for example) with a grain of salt. Hence, when it comes to evaluating prospects, one just can't look at one sample and say that's the recipe for success. There has to be a consistent showing of success from level to level.

4.) Age-related-to-league performance is huge.

In many ways, Bowker going to Fresno is lose-lose. He had 350 plate appearances in San Francisco the previous year. If he succeeded, then well, he was 25 and he had almost 3/4 of a season of experience at the Big League level. He is supposed to succeed. If he flops, then he probably wasn't that good of a prospect if he can't dominate Triple-A pitching at age 25. Now, if Bowker was 22 or 23 and putting up the numbers he was in 2009, that would be a different story. But he wasn't and as a result, Giants fans probably should have tempered their expectations. This isn't just specific to Bowker of course, and it should be applied to all prospects in any professional system. If a guy is younger than the competition and producing, then that's a good sign. If he's older than the competition, then it's a red flag. If he's repeating levels, that's also a red flag as well, especially if he has good numbers. Age-related-to-league is probably one of the most important things any baseball fan could look at when it comes to evaluating prospects. Bowker's older age and the fact that he was repeating Triple-A should have had more of us Giants fans on our toes.


As stated before, Bowker isn't the only example of a "prospect getting hype but not living up to it." Myriads of organizations can claim almost hundreds of players who failed to live up to the hype in the past decade alone. Sure, there are exceptions to the rule. There are guys like Bowker who take a while to develop and then burst onto the scene at the Major League level. Mike Morse and Jose Bautista are examples of players who took longer than expected in the Minors, showed inconsistency at the Minor and Major League level and have now become everyday players. That being said, those are the exceptions, not the standards.

Did Bowker have a chance to be that exception? Of course, he did. I still feel he had a very good power tool set for a corner outfielder. But as with most prospects in his situation, the chips were stacked against him and as it is most of the time with prospects, the odds won out. For every Buster Posey, there's four to five Bowkers out there that don't live up to the "hype" generated by fans.

At least Giants fans (and myself) are better off now for understanding that the "hype machine" doesn't always strike gold with everyone.