Sunday, January 15, 2012

The OTF Top 30 Prospect List...

So, I am going to update the prospect list this go-around. Again, prospect lists are a crap-shoot for a most part. Check out every prospect handbook from John Sickels, to Baseball America, to Baseball Prospectus and you'll realize how much fluctuation there is from year to year. Guys progress, guys regress, guys get hurt, guys retire and join the priesthood, etc. Projecting prospects sometimes is like projecting Nic Cage's next movie: you have an idea for the most part (in Cage's example, it's gonna be bad), but how exactly it will pan out is hard to determine (is it going to be "Wicker Man" bad or perhaps just "The Rock" bad?).

I am not going to start writing profiles for the list until sometime in February though out of a couple of reasons. One, that is when I will be getting a couple of publications that I will feel will be crucial in the list-making process (BA's prospect handbook and the MiLB Annalyst produced by Baseball Once I read through those, as well as doing other research on my end, I feel like I can confidently make a list that should be presentable.

The second reason I'm refraining from starting the list early is due to hot stove stuff. Though it's winding down, you never know who's going to get traded and such. For example, if I was a Yankees fan and I made the list two days ago, I would have been screwed because Jesus Montero would have been my number one. As we all know, that certainly is not the case anymore due to him being traded for Michael Pineda. So, waiting it out isn't a bad thing, and allows me to make a list that will be as accurate as possible come Spring Training.

Anyways, as stated on the page, by no means am I a Minor League guru. Just a fan who has an extreme interest in prospects, and has time to kill in between grading and teaching. In the meantime, I will write profiles on guys who will miss the cut because they have dropped out due to regression or poor seasons or perhaps they have graduated as prospects (see Brandon Belt). While I can't make the list just yet, I think I can say definitely who is not on the list, and that should give this blog some posts and articles to chew on before the actual lists comes out. If you really need a list to digest, check out Dr. B's lists and write ups at When the Giants Come to Town. I know I have been reading up on his stuff daily and I will definitely admit he's the best amateur minor league analyst of the Giants system out there on the Web.

Again, don't know how many are following still, but if you are, hopefully there won't be any long breaks anymore! I know that is something I have to work on!

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