Friday, February 3, 2012

The OTF Top 30: The Actual List

It's been a long week for me, so I didn't get a chance to post until now. However, I have compiled my actual prospect list, so I figured it would be good to write down the actual list and then go into profiles.

Will go more into detail on the list in subsequent posts, but just wanted to put it out there so people have one more prospect list to chew on.

Player Name Ranking Position Grade ETA
Gary Brown #1 OF A- 2013
Joe Panik #2 SS/2B B+ 2013
Tommy Joseph #3 C B 2014
Heath Hembree #4 P B 2013
Ehire Adrianza #5 SS B 2013
Andrew Susac #6 C B 2014
Kyle Crick #7 P B 2015
Eric Surkamp #8 P B- 2012
Francisco Peguero #9 OF B- 2013
Hector Sanchez  #10 C C+ 2012
Charlie Culberson #11 2B C+ 2013
Conor Gillaspie #12 3B C+ 2012
Adalberto Mejia #13 P C+ 2015
Clayton Blackburn #14 P C+ 2014
Josh Osich #15 P C+ 2014
Ricky Oropesa #16 1B C+ 2014
Mike Kickham #17 P C+ 2014
Seth Rosin #18 P C+ 2014
Jarrett Parker #19 OF C 2014
Chris Dominguez #20 3B C 2013
Adam Duvall #21 3B C 2014
Hector Correa #22 P C 2014
Joan Gregorio #23 P C 2016
Brett Bochy #24 P C 2014
Jesus Galindo #25 OF C 2015
Jacob Dunnington #26 P C 2015
Chuckie Jones #27 OF C 2016
Shawn Payne #28 OF C 2016
Rafael Rodriguez #29 OF C 2016
Kendry Flores #30 P C 2016


  1. C+ for my man Hector? When he rakes and makes the 25 out of spring training, maybe you'll revise.

    High on Adrianza and low on Frankie Peggs I see. List looks good to me, I'd flip those two personally. I agree with your Chuckie Jones rank. The Giants system looks prime for sleepers to ignite... or crash and burn.

  2. Hey, I like Hector Sanchez a lot. But, I'm not sold totally on his bat, and his numbers weren't too hot in Fresno either. Furthermore, a lot of scouting reports have also questioned his ability to hold his own at the plate at the Major League level. I think this year in Fresno will be very telling. If he starts off well, I think he could be a B- prospect. I think he has a lot of potential, I just like Joseph and Susac a lot more as prospects. As far as making the 25 man out of the spring? Probably could, if only because Eli Whiteside is so bad. I don't even think Whiteside was a C prospect when he was in the minors.

    Yes, I am high on Adrianza. The bat is questionable, but he makes good contact and he shows a good approach. Also the defense is stellar and the numbers are starting to back it up (improved fielding rates across the board). I think the days of the A-Rod, Nomar, Jeter, Tulo shortstops are long gone. I think shortstops are going to be in more of the Elvis Andrus-mold: not great offensively, but excellent defense and speed on the basepaths will make up for it in terms of value. Adrianza has that potential, and I still think he has some speed despite the meager numbers last year. He was injured, and I think the organization put the brakes on him. Remember, he had 33 stolen bags in 2010. At the very least, I see Adrianza as a more patient Alcides Escobar type, which isn't bad to have, especially since Escobar was a very heralded SS in the Brewers system.

    I like Peguero, just not as much as Mayo or some other guys. My big issue with the Peguero is the lack of walks. I love his tools, and I think of him as a more athletic Pablo Sandoval. But even Pablo walked more in the minors than him. I just think it's scary when a guy has an above league average BA, but below league average OBP. I'm not saying that he can't be good or can't develop his approach with those numbers, but I'm not going to throw him in the top 5 either until he shows me some improvement.

    Jones dropped a lot for me, as did RafRod, but I kept them on the list because they are still young with a lot of potential. Jones had a multitude of injuries last year, so I want to see what he can do fully healthy. I probably would have rated him a C+ last year, so I downgraded him to C, just because he took a step back (though I didn't kill him like some prospect rankings who left him out of their Top 30 all together). There definitely is a lot of sleepers. I love Mejia and though Osich is a little low in my rankings, I wouldn't be surprised to see him do very well. He would have been a first round pick if not for the TJ surgery the year before. He had some real dominant outings at OSU last season. But yeah, a lot of guys will be either boom or bust this year. Another guy I like is Payne. Great tools except power, but great speed set. Could be a better Fred Lewis from the reports. Then again though, he could be another Wendell Fairley, so it's tough to tell.

  3. I don't put a ton of stock in what the Brain Trust says, but they have already hinted that they may take 3 catchers, with Hector being the third. That to me opens the door a bit wider. He did struggle in Fresno, but I'll cut that some slack due to the crazy herky jerky call up/skip AA/majors for a few days. He had some nice ABs in September, and the Giants obviously love his bat. They were hoping for Sando 2.0, which is a tall order and way too much pressure. He does have the same plate presence as Pablo to me, just not quite as good a hitter. Few are. I like his chances this year because the Giants need a better bat off the bench than Whitey/Stewie, and really need to rest Posey once a week. Those public declarations carry the hint they're giving him a good look, and if he continues from his VWL raking... Switch hitting is gravy.

    Lots of injuries to key prospects at the beginning of this year, and I like that comparison to Escobar for Adrianza. I just think his hitting will be severely challenged by the eastern and we should see what happens. If he passes that he's pretty legit. But it sunk Crawford a lot in peoples eyes, and I'm not convinced Adrianza is a better hitter. He does have more speed in his game, and the switch hitting is nice.

    Some players can learn to take walks later on in their careers. Against the best pitching in the world, Frankie Peggs may get exposed for sure. They'll make him hit their pitches, and that could take the BA and BABIP way down. There are some hacker guys who have learned patience. Jose Reyes is one. He'll definitely have to adjust somewhat, but his hit tool looks pretty good. I've only seen him a couple of times but he was a pretty fun ballplayer to watch.

    Osich - would the Giants please announce their plan (starting?) and how his health is already? I think he could be the steal of the entire draft. Big guy who is pretty well developed. Him and the other fireballers drafted back to back in the 4-7 rounds offer big potential. This draft class is very interesting. Just a lot of unrefined talent at this point, it should be interesting to see the cream and the chaff work itself out.

    Love Payne and Galindo. They represent some nice depth up the middle, which will lead to a better farm system overall.

  4. Shankbone,

    I did cut Sanchez some slack in that regard. To go from High-A to the Majors to Fresno in one year is pretty nuts, and considering the Giants were moving him slowly prior to this year (he played in Augusta the year before and rookie ball the previous year before that), the movement probably didn't help his development. To be perfectly frank, I would like Sanchez to start the year in Fresno just to get some confidence and more at-bats and then after a month or two, cut ties with Whitey and just make Sanchez the backup. Joseph and Susac are still a ways away and Sanchez is certainly a nice option that I don't feel will kill the Giants offensively like Stewart or Whitey. Sanchez could have a Torrealba like career, which is a good thing to have, especially considering Buster's health is such an issue.

    I have always liked Adrianza more than Crawford for a variety of reasons. First off, Adrianza is younger and he has played against older competition for most of his career (though after repeating Single A and High-A last year, that obviously has changed). But, the one thing that has prevented me from jumping totally on the Crawford boat has been his strikeouts. He did cut down on that in Fresno last year (only 16.9 percent), but prior to 2011, he had strikeout rates of 26.9 percent, 23.6 percent, 25 percent, and 22.5 percent. Furthermore, his 26.9 percent came in his "awesome" SJ campaign, which makes me worry. Adrianza on the other hand has only touched the 20 mark once, and has never had a BB/K ratio under 0.50 in stints where he had 50 or more plate appearances. Crawford on the other hand has only had a BB/K ratio over 0.50 twice in his Minor League career. Hence, I like Adrianza's ability to make contact better, though I do agree that he seems to be more of a singles guy, while you do get some power upside from Crawford (and to be fair, Crawford's approach has gotten much better in the past couple of years, so I'm more optimistic about him than I was a year ago).

    I agree with you on Pegs. As I mentioned, in terms of tools, he is very, very intriguing. Basically, I could see him being similar to Nate Schierholtz in right. Good defensively, good arm (though probably not as good as Nate's...but then again, not a lot of players have his arm in general), won't draw a lot of walks but has some power. I think Pegs will probably strikeout less and hit for higher average than Nate, but again, you never know for sure. The only reason I refrained from rating him a B is just because he had only six walks all year. I just don't see that as a recipe for success. But as Crawford showed last year, he certainly can improve in his approach and if he can just make that walk rate a little bit better, than he is definitely a B, perhaps even a B+.

    I agree on Osich. After watching tape on him, he has very good stuff. I am surprised scouts soured on him because of the injury issues. It's not like Matt Purke who was dominant and then had injury issues leading up to draft day (or even Rendon, who I think was the best overall talent on draft day and the Padres got a steal with him). He showed he had recovered well from TJ and that he was projecting upward from injury and not downward. I hope the Giants at least start him out as a starter because I think he has No. 3 starter potential, No. 4 starter at the very least.

    Agree with you on Payne and Galindo. Galindo's a burner and you gotta like guys like that. I think Payne may be the most under-appreciated guy in the Giants system. I think his tool set is what Giants fans hoped from Wendell Fairley. The only thing Fairley had though on Payne was age, as Fairley signed out of high school while Payne went to college to develop a little more. I think all the attention went to Panik's breakout in the NWL, but Payne held his own and then some as well. The only issue was the power, but I think he'll eventually develop some as he gets more and more used to big league pitching and hitting with wood bats.

  5. Kevin - Checking in - Life gets busy quick - get some profiles down! Your blog is some good good stuff, don't want you disappearing. I kept checking back and seeing the Panik/Crick video.

    I'd love to read a quick draft analysis from you too - you had some good previews.

    Cheers, Shank