Some Changes to the OTF Top 30 List

I decided to make some changes to the Top-30 Prospects list. While I did put some time into my rankings, there were some rankings in retrospect I felt needed to be changed. Is it the most professional thing to do? Probably not, but I want to at least make a list that is accurate of my feeling for the organization's prospects. I think for now, I am pretty confident in this list and there won't be any further changes made.

Here's a list of the changes:

1.) The most notable change I made was moving Angel Villalona into the rankings at No. 30. To be honest, I wanted to put him here initially, but I withdrew because I wasn't even sure he'd be playing this year (So I went with the high upside, but still questionable pitcher Kendry Flores instead). Now that news has broken that he has received his work visa, I feel I can put him in now, especially since I think he is better prospect than Flores, despite the layoff. I do agree that it's a generous ranking and if you put a gun to my head, my initial thought would be that it is unlikely that he'll pan out as a grade C prospect. But remember, Villalona was a Top-50 prospect according to BA a few years ago, and he is still relatively young (he's only 21 years old), so there is some potential to salvage something with Villalona.

2.) I rose outfielder Francisco Peguero in the rankings to No. 7, and consequently increased his grade from a B- to a B. As much as I dislike the plate approach and the lack of walks, Pegeuro's tools rate too strong for him to be considered a B- prospect. I was tempted to put Peguero over Andrew Susac, but I feel Susac's position (catcher) gives him the advantage.

3.) Likewise, I dropped Kyle Crick to No. 8 and Eric Surkamp to No. 9. I decreased Crick's grade to a B-, while Surkamp's grade stayed the same at a B-. Another change I made was increasing Hector Sanchez's grade from a C+ to a B-. I felt I shorted Sanchez a little too much when coming up the rankings and at No. 10, he deserves at least a B- grade.

OTF Top 30: No. 2, Joe Panik, SS/2B

No. 2: Joe Panik, Shortstop/Second Baseman



Age: 21 years old
Drafted: First round (29th overall) in the 2011 Draft
College: St. John's (NY)
2011 Regular Season numbers: .341 average, .401 OBP, .467 slugging, .868 OPS, .403 wOBA, 144 wRC+, 49 runs scored, 6 home runs, 13 stolen bases (Short Season)
2011 Fall/Winter League numbers: .323 average, .394 OBP, .473 slugging, .867 OPS, .389 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 6 runs scored, 2 home runs, 0 stolen bases (AFL)


Why you should know about Panik:

The much maligned pick in the 29th slot, Panik has come a long way to prove his doubters wrong in such a short period of time. Many experts expected Panik to go somewhere late in the supplemental round or even the second, but the Giants swooped him up late in the first round and after signing early, he came on with a vengeance in Salem Keizer, proving to be one of the Northwest League's better hitters. Panik doesn't wow scouts with his athleticism or tools, but his stat lines and disciplined plate approach in college and as a professional have started to make some doubters into believers.



What Are Panik's Strengths as a Prospect?

Without a doubt, Panik has a very sound approach at the plate. It was his calling card as a prospect in college at St. John's, and he has seamlessly transitioned that excellent plate discipline to the professional level, as evidenced by his stints in the Northwest League and Arizona Fall League. At St. John's, Panik posted BB/K ratios of 1.81, 2.24 and 1.83 his last three years with the Red Storm, and in 304 plate appearances with the Volcanoes, he sported a ratio of 1.12. However, it's not just his ability to take walks that has experts and scouts turning their heads, but he has showed an impeccable ability to make contact as a hitter. He averaged a 91 percent contact rate in college, and his contact rate was also 91 percent in his stint in the NWL last season. Hence, it comes as no surprise that Panik is going to be a threat to be a high-average hitter, and that was the case last year as he posted batting averages of .398 and .341 at St. John's and Salem Keizer, respectively. (And if that wasn't enough, Panik earned the Northwest League batting title with his .341 average; not bad for a guy who was playing college ball the same year.)

In addition, while the batting average numbers are nice, Panik has showed some glimpses of power for a middle infielder. At St. John's, he belted 20 homers combined in his last two years, as well as slugging percentages of .621 and .642 his last two years as an amateur. While the power dipped when he made the transition to wooden bats (as expected for most, if not all, college prospects), it still remained solid for a middle infielder, as he posted a slugging of .467 in the NWL and .473 with the Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League. While Panik isn't going to post Tulowitzki or even Utley-like numbers, he certainly could be a threat for 10-15 home runs on an annual basis.

Defensively, while he doesn't sport a ton of athleticism, scouting reports have remarked that he is still an above average defender that can hold his own in the field. Rob Gordon of the 2012 Minor League Baseball Analyst rated his glove a 3 plus out of 5 and that he gets the most out of his abilities. In the NWL, he also flashed a 4.59 RF/G and .964 fielding percentage, not bad considering it was his first year as a professional.


Where Might Panik Struggle?

The disparity in Panik's rankings is a classic case of the "scouts vs. stats" argument when evaluating prospects. On paper, Panik looks like a stud. He gets on base, he hits for high average, he has good power for a middle infielder, and he shows a patient approach along with a strong ability to make contact at the plate. When you look at his numbers, not only does he look like an everyday player, but he also has the potential to be an All-Star middle infielder.

However, the scouts aren't as kind. Keith Law was adamant against the pick on draft day, and even though he warmed up a little to him after his Northwest League campaign, Law still doesn't feel he is a very high caliber prospect (he believes that Panik is a utility player at best). To be honest, from a scouting standpoint, one can understand where Law, and a lot of other baseball experts come from. If you ever watch him on tape, nothing about Panik stands out. His swing is good, but it's not the kind of smooth motion one would expect from a .300-plus hitter. Furthermore, he doesn't look all that athletic, and defensively, nothing he does is very impressive. He doesn't have a cannon, his glove isn't especially quick, you feel like his footwork could be better, etc. If you look at him on video, you would think he was a fourth or fifth round prospect, not a former first rounder.

And that is what makes Panik's upcoming year so intriguing. He's dominated in college and in the Northwest League and in the Arizona Fall League despite having average to slightly above average tools at best. Hence, one has to wonder if the numbers will start to regress wants he faces more talented pitching and better competition. Scouts would say he will regress, while the stat "guys" would say his approach will lead to sustainable success. At this point though, we as Giants fans wouldn't probably know until he hits the field wherever he should be on Opening Day (should it be Augusta or San Jose, but most likely San Jose).


Grades on Panik's Tools

Hitting for Average/Contact ability: 19/20 (He hit for high average in college and high average in the NWL and the AFL. In the hitter friendly Cal League, he should be able to sustain that success. However, watching his swing in person prevents me from giving him a perfect score. That being said, the numbers don't lie, and Panik should be a perennial threat for .300 over his minor league career.)
Plate Approach: 19/20 (Probably the best aspect of Panik's game. The league average BB/K ratio is usually 0.50. Panik posted over double that ratio in his first stint of professional ball. While I think his gaudy BB/K ratios won't carry as he moves up the system, he should be a guy who's consistently getting on base and setting himself up to score runs.)
Power: 14/20 (While he has posted some gaudy slugging percentages for a middle infielder in college and in the NWL and AFL, Panik's power potential doesn't seem very high. He has a nice swing that will provide some surprising pop, but he probably has a ceiling of about 10-15 home runs, and even that is being generous. He definitely has some gap to gap power, but it'll be interesting to see how his power progresses as he moves up to High-A and Double-A ball. It is probably more realistic to think that his slugging will hover in the .420-.440 range as he progresses in the Giants system.)
Speed: 16/20 (Panik is not a burner on the basepaths or in the field. He is opportunistic while on the bases, as evidenced by his 13 stolen bases with the Volcanoes. That being said, he was far from perfect, as he was caught five times. Panik could be an occasional threat on the basepaths, especially considering how often he gets on base. Still though, his speed is probably average at best.
Defense: 17/20 (Judging from scouting reports and what I have seen on tape, it's obvious that Panik's days at shortstop are limited. With Crawford at the Major League level, and Adrianza and Carter Jurica much more highly heralded defensive prospects, Panik probably would be better suited for the keystone position. As a second baseman though, his defense would most likely hold up well and his lack of arm strength wouldn't be as exposed as it would at shortstop (which is why I grade him a 17; if he stays at SS, it's probably a 16 or even as low as 15). Furthermore, with Nick Noonan flaming out, Charlie Culberson's future questionable, and Brock Bond most likely a Four-A player, second base would be a prime opportunity for Panik to move quickly in the Giants system.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 19/20 (Panik showed a lot by signing quickly after draft day. displaying he is interested in playing baseball rather than negotiating a higher paycheck. After all the negative attention about being "overdrafted," he took care of business and probably had the best season out of anyone drafted in the 2011 draft. So far, Panik hasn't had any injury issues of note and he had the reputation of being a gamer both with the Volcanoes and at St. John's, which definitely sits well in his favor.


Overall grade: B+
Projection: Starting Major League Second Baseman; has the potential to be a solid, though not spectacular contributor.

Summary: Panik has everything I would want from a middle infielder prospect: an excellent plate approach, a little bit of pop, decent defense, and passable speed. Is he spectacular? No. Will his tools wow you? Heck no. Is he going to be a perennial All-Star? Most likely not. However, keep this in mind: Kolten Wong was rated as one of the best middle infielders in the draft last year, and Panik pretty much went toe to toe last year with Wong on a statistical basis. However, Kolten Wong signed for $1.5 million. Panik? He went for $1.1 million. So, the Giants saved $400 K and pretty much got the same player on paper. Panik is going to be the kind of "value" player in my mind, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him continue to give the Giants value on investment as he progresses in the Giants system.

OTF Top 30: No. 1, Gary Brown, OF

There has been a huge delay in posts. I know consistency has been something of a problem in the past, but I had some things at work that got in the way and it was hard to find time to really sit down and write. Now though, I have a little free time, so I should be able to start posting. I will get back to the 2007 prospect retrospective later, but I wanted to get through the profiles first before Spring Training. So, without further delay, here's the first profile in the Top 30.

No.1: Gary Brown, Outfielder



Age: 23 years old
Drafted: First Round (24th overall) in 2010 Draft
College: Cal State Fullerton
2011 regular season numbers: .336 average, .407 OBP, .519 slugging, .925 OPS, .411 wOBA, 140 wRC+, 115 runs scored, 14 home runs, 53 stolen bases (High-A)
2011 Fall League/Winter League numbers: .220 average, .278 OBP, .300 slugging, .578 OPS, .266 wOBA, 40 wRC+, 6 runs scored, 1 home run, 2 stolen bases (AFL)


Why You Should Know About Brown in 2012:

Brown is the consensus top prospect in the Giants system and for good reason. He had an absolutely phenomenal year in the California League in his first full professional year. While he had a stellar career at baseball powerhouse Cal State Fullerton, many baseball experts felt Brown was a bit of a reach at the 24th slot in the 2010 draft. However, after last year, not only did he help change the minds of a lot of those naysayers, but he also became valuable to the point where the Giants were willing to trade former Top 10 pick Zack Wheeler in the Carlos Beltran deal over Brown.


What Are Brown's Strengths as a Prospect?

Brown's speed is his calling card and his plus tool as a prospect. Brown recorded a 3.80 time down the first line according to scouts, which is absolutely blazing (4.00 is usually a plus score), and last year in San Jose, Brown did steal 53 bags to boot. However, while the speed on the basepaths is nice, Brown was known for being a solid contact hitter (he posted a 94 percent contact rate in his last year at Fullerton) and in San Jose he proved much of the same as he posted an above .300 batting average and a contact rate of 86 percent. Furthermore, he also showed some gap to gap power, as he hit 34 doubles, 13 triples and 14 home runs in 638 plate appearances in San Jose in 2012 (which added up to a sterling .519 slugging).

Offensively, Brown's bat turned a lot of heads in 2011, and rightfully so. His speed, contact ability, and surprising power (especially to the gaps) make him an ideal leadoff hitter for the Giants in the future (currently Angel Pagan is slotted in the spot and he's only on a one year contract). However, defensively, Brown also rates very strong and he seems to be more than capable of handling the dimensions of AT&T's spacious park. Brown posted a 2.25 RF/G and a .989 fielding percentage in 2011. He also recorded 16 assists, not bad considering scouts rate his arm as average at best. That being said, he does have excellent range in the outfield, and has an aggressive mindset in the field as well (though at times it can be an enemy as he overplays some balls...that will get better with more experience though and is correctable). MLB Prospect Portal.com was very high on his defensive potential, as they rated his defense a 55 now, but with 70 potential (on a 20-80 scale).


Where Might Brown Struggle?

Though he had very good college numbers, Brown hasn't done anything to disprove the notion that he isn't anything more than a "California League" wonder. Now, like I said, his college numbers were very good, he has excellent tools, and his California League campaign looks incredible all across the board. That being said, he did not have a very good year statistically in Rookie ball or the Northwest League in 2010 (he posted batting averages under .200 and wOBA's of .311 and .225, respectively). In addition, his 2011 AFL campaign was extremely underwhelming offensively  (.220 average, .266 wOBA). While those numbers are simply too small of samples to really hold against him (99 plate appearances total between those three stints), there will be immense pressure on Brown to perform in Richmond, especially since a lot of Giants fans envision him as the Giants starting center fielder in 2013. A lot of hitters have struggled in the transition from the California League to the Eastern League, and hence, their development stagnated along with their bats. I don't think Brown will fall in that category (as I mentioned in this earlier post), but it is something to think about as a Giants fan.

The only real concern about Brown (other than his arm strength, which is graded as mostly average by scouts; but he's a centerfielder and it's fine for his position) is probably his plate approach, which was much maligned going into the 2010 draft. Basically, Brown doesn't walk very much. It isn't Francisco Peguero-bad, but he's not going to be piling up the free passes either. Last year, he showed a lot of improvement from his college numbers (he only drew 9 walks in 210 at-bats in 2010 with the Titans), as he garnered 46 bases on balls (a 7.4 percent walk rate) and a BB/K ratio of 0.60. That being said, in the AFL, he only drew 1 walk in 55 plate appearances (a 1.8 percent rate), a bit of a regression from his solid approach in San Jose (though as stated before, it's a small sample). One of the plus aspects of Brown's game is not only his ability to make contact, but his speed. Though he could be a little more selective on the basepaths (he was caught 19 times last year), 53 stolen bases is nothing to shrug about. Brown could be one of the Giants' best stolen base threats in a long time (better than even Andres Torres, who had great speed, but did not accumulate a lot of stolen bases). However, if he struggles to get walks and recognize pitches, it's going to limit his value, because that speed will be on the bench rather than on the basepaths. (Though as I've said in my earlier post about Brown, his sneaky value comes in his HBP numbers, which make his BB/K ratios even better when you add them in to the ratio; so that could be something that could make up for the lack of walks).

A nitpicky thing I have read a lot of scouts complain about is Brown's mechanics in the batter's box. A lot of scouts feel he has too much movement pre-swing, and that it makes them wonder if his noisy mechanics will hinder him as he climbs up the system and faces better pitching. To be honest, yes, I think Brown in the batter's box looks ugly. I don't like all the movement with his legs (he twitches his back leg a lot) and he does at times show cases of "happy feet" (where he's moving his feet in the batter's box prior to the swing), though it doesn't seem as bad as it was in college. That being said, I think that concern about Brown is down the ladder with me, perhaps even a non-issue to be frank. Once Brown gets loaded up for his swing, everything looks good, and he gets out of the batter's box fast for a right handed hitter. From what I've seen, none of his quirkiness does anything to hinder his approach or swing. Is it the prettiest swing in the world? Probably not. But is it effective? Absolutely, and until it ceases to be effective, I'll consider the "noise" pre-swing as a minimal issue at best.


Grades on Brown's Tools:

Hitting for Average/Contact Ability: 18/20 (He was good in college and made strides last year; I think he should be a mid-80 percent contact hitter who'll threaten the .300 mark on an annual basis).
Plate Approach: 17/20 (Showed good discipline in 2011, but before I grade it in the A-minus range, I want to see him transition that for a second straight year).
Power: 16/20 (Depends how you view power; if it's big flies, than he's got C-grade power at best; if it's gap to gap power, Brown has a ton of potential, and this grade could go up next year if he can hold up his gap to gap power in the Eastern League in 2012).
Speed: 20/20 (Gary Brown is FAST. Enough said.)
Defense: 18/20 (Big knock is his average arm, but his range and aggressiveness make up for it; as a center fielder, I think he could have big-play, Gold Glove potential).
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 19/20 (No major injury issues and did play 131 games last year in San Jose; seems like an upstanding guy too, which doesn't help you a ton as a prospect, but it's better than being a jerk, which seems to hurt you more than one would think as a prospect; either way, he seems like he could easily fit with other baby faces like Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, and Brandon Belt at the Big League level).


Overall Grade: A-minus.
Projection: Starting Center Fielder at the minimum, could have big-time contributor/All-Star potential.

Summary: I like Brown a lot, which is why I graded him as an A-minus prospect (I know Sickels graded him as a B-plus). I think Brown has some plus tools (speed being the obvious one) and some tools that could get better with more and more exposure to professional pitching. To be honest, it's hard to find a lot of flaws with Brown's tool set or abilities. Sure, he had a bit of a slump mid-season that probably prevented an earlier callup, but the overall numbers don't lie: Brown was simply phenomenal in the California League. Of course, we've been down this road before with "phenomenal" California League performers. Yet with his tool set and potential, I think Brown will not only be successful next year in Richmond, but at the Big League level as well.

The OTF Top 30: The Actual List

It's been a long week for me, so I didn't get a chance to post until now. However, I have compiled my actual prospect list, so I figured it would be good to write down the actual list and then go into profiles.

Will go more into detail on the list in subsequent posts, but just wanted to put it out there so people have one more prospect list to chew on.

Player Name	Ranking	Position	Grade	ETA
Gary Brown	#1	OF	A-	2013
Joe Panik	#2	SS/2B	B+	2013
Tommy Joseph	#3	C	B	2014
Heath Hembree	#4	P	B	2013
Ehire Adrianza	#5	SS	B	2013
Andrew Susac	#6	C	B	2014
Kyle Crick	#7	P	B	2015
Eric Surkamp	#8	P	B-	2012
Francisco Peguero	#9	OF	B-	2013
Hector Sanchez	#10	C	C+	2012
Charlie Culberson	#11	2B	C+	2013
Conor Gillaspie	#12	3B	C+	2012
Adalberto Mejia	#13	P	C+	2015
Clayton Blackburn	#14	P	C+	2014
Josh Osich	#15	P	C+	2014
Ricky Oropesa	#16	1B	C+	2014
Mike Kickham	#17	P	C+	2014
Seth Rosin	#18	P	C+	2014
Jarrett Parker	#19	OF	C	2014
Chris Dominguez	#20	3B	C	2013
Adam Duvall	#21	3B	C	2014
Hector Correa	#22	P	C	2014
Joan Gregorio	#23	P	C	2016
Brett Bochy	#24	P	C	2014
Jesus Galindo	#25	OF	C	2015
Jacob Dunnington	#26	P	C	2015
Chuckie Jones	#27	OF	C	2016
Shawn Payne	#28	OF	C	2016
Rafael Rodriguez	#29	OF	C	2016
Kendry Flores	#30	P	C	2016

Mixed Six: A Look at 2007 First Rounders Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson

As promised, here is the first piece on the 2007 Draft series. The first part unsurprisingly is on the Giants' first two picks in the draft: left handed pitcher Madison Bumgarner (who went 10th overall in the draft) and right handed pitcher Tim Alderson (who went 22nd overall). Both were high upside arms out of high school, and though they were projected to be a couple years away at the soonest from contributing at the Big League level, many Giants fans dreamed of rotation headlining Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner and Alderson for years to come.

After years of development in the minors though, the two pitchers have panned out in remarkably different ways. One is a World Series stud, the other hasn't played above Double-A. One was arguably the best pitcher last year in a rotation with not one or two but three All-Star pitchers, while the other one performed so poorly in 2010 that their team sent him from Double-A to High-A.

I think it's safe to say we all know who's who.

Let's take a deeper look though at their individual profiles though.



Madison Bumgarner: "The World Series Hero"

Bumgarner went 10th overall in the 2007 MLB Rule 4 Draft. At the time, there was some good arms coming out of the draft, as David Price went No. 1 overall and Jarrod Parker (formerly the Diamondbacks' top prospect) went in the slot before Bumgarner. At the time, Bumgarner was young and just out of high school, but scouts liked what he brought to the table as a big (six-foot, five inches, 227 pounds) left-handed pitcher with Top-of-the-rotation potential.

A lot of Giants fans though weren't exactly thrilled however with the selection of the pick. Dr. B of When the Giants Come to Town was adamantly against the drafting of Bumgarner prior to draft day (as stated by OGC in his post about the Bumgarner selection), and even OGC himself had some choice things to say in his "disappointment" of Bumgarner going in the Giants' slot. Here is what he said about the pick:
 

"I was disapppointed by the selection of Madison Bumgarner. Not to the point of wanting to throw myself down the stairs, as DrB on MCC said he would if the Giants selected him, but I had been hoping to get some offensive help from the #10 pick. I was really hoping that Wieters would fall to us, but I guess that was wishful thinking. But there was a bunch of top offensive help available at #10, Beau Mills, Jason Heyward, Matt Dominguez, who were consensus top picks where you couldn't go wrong - in the post analysis - selecting one of them."

Furthermore, OGC also pointed out to Bumgarner's lack of breaking stuff as a bit of a red flag, especially considering Sabean said after draft day that they were planning to "fast track" him in the Giants system. Of course, OGC was realistic that he could develop one, especially since he was so young at the time. Here's what he said about Bumgarner developing his secondary pitches:

"Bumgarner doesn't have a curve or slider not because he could not master them, but because he just started pitching them just one year ago, because his father wouldn't allow him to. Well, now he will get professional training on the proper way to throw them, plus he can speak with Zito, Cain, and Lincecum about it because they all have a great curve ball, and probably with Lowry and Misch about their changeups. And he's only 17 (18 in August), so he still has some physical maturation coming, which should add a few MPH to his already good fastball plus with professional coaching, he should be able to master the curve and/or slider with a few years under his belt."

The issue though for most Giants fans at the time (OGC included) though was not really the fact that they picked Bumgarner, but rather that they picked Bumgarner when it was obvious that they needed to restock their system with position players. At the time, Dominguez and Heyward were available in the draft, and to some (if not most Giants fans), the common thought was that either of those guys would have brought more value because of the lack of position talent in the Giants system. As for Bumgarner, while he was a good pitcher, he would still be a No. 3 guy behind Lincecum and Cain and, at the time, would probably be a No. 3 or 4 guy depending on how Noah Lowry developed (which ended up being 3 because Lowry got hurt and his career fell off a cliff).

Despite the controversy with the selection, Bumgarner was ranked highly by baseball publications as Baseball America ranked him the No. 3 prospect in the Giants system before even playing a game. Bumgarner made good on the high praise and the Top-10 selection as he absolutely dominated the Sally. In 24 games and a 141.2 IP, he went 15-3 with a 1.46 ERA, 1.71 FIP, 0.93 WHIP and a 164 strikeouts. He showed impeccable command (his K/BB ratio was 7.81 and his BABIP was around average at .304), and his control was also very mature for a kid just out of high school (1.33 BB/9). Without a doubt, Bumgarner was dominating in every way in Low Single-A and it was safe to say the Giants had a lot to look forward to with the former Top-10 pick.

With such a dominating 2008 campaign with the Green Jackets, his stock rose considerably going into the 2009 season. Baseball America ranked him the No. 9 prospect overall, and a popular argument amongst prospect experts was whether he or Baltimore Orioles left-handed prospect Brian Matusz would have the better pitching career. Bumgarner started out the year in San Jose in High-A, but the league proved to be too easy for him as he dominated in just five starts. In 24.1 IP, he posted an ERA of 1.48, a FIP of 2.05, a WHIP of 0.89 and a K/BB ratio of 5.75. Though his strikeout numbers did decline a little (his K/9 rate in the 24.1 innings sample was 8.51, almost seven points down from the previous season), but considering the Cal League was a hitter's league, there wasn't too much concern about the initial dip in San Jose.

After five starts, the Giants moved Bumgarner up to Double-A with the Connecticut Defenders (the team moved to Richmond the following season). Bumgarner pitched a lot of innings (107) and posted good traditional numbers (1.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9-1 record) in the Eastern League, but there were some red flags raised during his 2009 campaign with the Defenders.

The biggest concern was his dip in dominance rate (K/9), as it fell to 5.80, an almost 10 point drop from the previous year. While he was still showing good control (his BB/9 was 2.42), the huge regression in K/9 rate from Augusta left him with a K/BB ratio (2.30) that looked a whole lot less impressive than the gaudy 7.81 ratio he put up in the Sally. Hence, a lot of questions started to get asked about Bumgarner's development. How was his velocity holding up? Was he developing his secondary pitches? Are hitters figuring him out? Is he going through some minor injury issues that fans and writers aren't aware of?

All those questions became amplified when the Giants called him up for an emergency spot start late in the 2009 season. Though Bumgarner pitched admirably in a 76 pitch start (he went 5.1 IP and allowed five hits, one walk and struck out four while only giving up two runs), the big alarm that went off was Bumgarner's dip in velocity. While reports said that he was hitting the mid-90's range in the minors, Bumgarner's fastball velocity averaged only 88.1 MPH in his first Major League appearance. Suddenly, many people began wondering if Bumgarner's stuff and velocity in the minors were exaggerated, simply to raise his stock as a prospect in the system. Management claimed though that the drop in velocity was a temporary thing, and that he was just suffering from fatigue after pitching so many innings in 2008 and 2009 as a teenager.

Unfortunately, come Spring Training in 2010, things did not start off well for Bumgarner. The velocity did not go up as expected, as Bumgarner was hitting the 87-89 MPH range on the radar guns and he also put up very uninspired numbers during the Spring as well, as he allowed five runs, eight and seven walks in seven innings pitched. His ERA hovered to 6.43 during Spring Training, his WHIP was a bloated 2.14, and the worst stat of all? He had zero strikeouts the entire Spring. (That's right...ZERO!)

The lackluster performance made the Giants go with Todd Wellemeyer in the fifth spot over Bumgarner, and instead, Bumgarner started the year in 2010 with the Fresno Grizzlies. Despite the humbling spring and drop in stock (he fell from No. 9 to No. 14 in BA's prospect rankings), he still managed to pitch well in the Pacific Coast League. He finished the Fresno campaign with a 7-1 record, 3.16 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 1.33 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 2.68. Furthermore, his velocity came back (he was back in the 90 MPH range by April) and his strikeouts per nine increased to 6.42 with the Grizzlies.

After Wellemeyer (predictably) flopped in the fifth spot in the rotation, Bumgarner got the call up to the Big League roster. Not only did Bumgarner have a great year overall during the regular season (7-6, 3.00 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.31 WHIP and 3.31 K/BB ratio), but he shined the most in the playoffs during the Giants' World Series run. In four playoff appearances, and 3 starts, Bumgarner went 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and had 18 strikeouts and only five walks in 20.2 IP during the postseason. Bumgarner's real gem came in the World Series against the Rangers on the road in Game Four, as he pitched 8 shutout innings with six strikeouts and only two walks and three hits allowed in the winning effort that put the Giants up 3-1 in the series.

The following year in 2011, Bumgarner arguably was the best Giants starting pitcher in 2011, which is saying something considering they had a two-time Cy Young Winner (Lincecum) and two other All-Stars in the past few years (Cain and Vogelsong). Bumgarner pitched 204.1 innings, and finished with a 13-13 record, 3.21 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, and a 4.15 K/BB ratio. In comparison, Bumgarner's FIP was the best on the team, as was his tERA (3.12), xFIP (3.10) and SIERA (3.18). Additionally, his K/BB ratio was almost a point and a half better than the second closest Giants starting pitcher (Cain came in at second with a 2.84 K/BB ratio).

It's crazy to think how Bumgarner went from "mixed feelings" pick in 2007 to a pitcher on the rise on arguably one of the best starting staffs in baseball in 2012. Right now, the future is bright for Bumgarner, as he would be a No. 1 pitcher on most teams right now (seriously, Jonathan Sanchez is slotted to be the No. 2 starter in KC and he could be No. 1 with a good Spring). It'll be interesting to see how Bumgarner will do over a second straight full year, and if he can continue to be as dominating as he was last year, especially in the second half (Bumgarner was dominating June on, as he posted FIP numbers of 2.51, 2.74, 3.08, and 2.51 from June-October). My "gut" tells me he will continue the momentum, though I wouldn't be surprised to see a little regression simply because his year was so phenomenal in 2011.

Regression or not, one thing is for clear: the Giants made the right choice in the 10th slot in 2007.



Tim Alderson: "The Player Traded for Freddy Sanchez"

In 2009, when Alderson was traded for Freddy Sanchez in a July Trade Deadline deal, there was a bit of mixed feelings (mostly weighing toward the negative end) amongst Giants fans on the Web. Chris Quick said this of Alderson in a post on Bay City Ball after the trade went down:

"At first glance, I think it’s a steep price to pay for Sanchez. Injury issues aside, he’s a quality player that’s been worth between 3-4 wins these past four years. In the matter of the last few days the Giants have traded away two Top-10 pitching prospects from their system. Outside of Madison Bumgarner and Zack Wheeler (who is still unsigned), the Giants probably don’t have another pitcher in their Top-10.

The difference between Sanchez and Juan Uribe over the remainder of the season probably varies between 0.5 – 1 win(s). The Giants fix a major hole on their team and do improve themselves. But I’m not sure I like the price that they paid.

Tentatively, I’d call this a Pirates win. Welcome to the team, Freddy."

After all, it did seem like a typical "panic" move by Sabes. Alderson was a Top-10 prospect in the Giants system and a first round pick, and many felt that the contribution Sanchez would have with the Giants wouldn't match the upside Alderson would bring to the Giants rotation in the future.

Two years later, it's obvious the Giants wound up on the better end of the deal, as Sanchez played a crucial role in the Giants World Series run, while Alderson has taken a nose dive as a prospect in the Pirates system.

Alderson was drafted in the 22nd slot in the 2007 draft as a young, tall, projectable arm out of Horizon High School in Arizona (he was a teammate of current Giants prospect Tommy Joseph, so he came from a nice high school program). At six-foot, six inches, Alderson had the physical tools of a No. 1 or No. 2 starting pitcher in the making, and scouts were very high about his potential as a professional pitcher. His scouting report on MiLB.com prior to draft day was positive, as scouts remarked that he had "plus, plus command" and that he displayed very good poise on the mound in the game they scouted (he struck out 13 against Bishop Gorman High School, a pretty good baseball program based out of Las Vegas). There were some concerns about his unorthodox delivery, but for the most part, scouts were pretty high on Alderson's upside, as stated in the summary section of his scouting report:

"With a unique delivery, pitching out of the stretch and unorthodox arm action, some teams may be wary. But Alderson has the chance to have three above-average pitches with outstanding command in a big, athletic package."

After signing, Alderson made a short appearance in the Arizona Rookie League in 2007, pitching in 3 games and a limited five inning stint. He made quite the impression, as he struck out 12, allowed four hits and no free passes in the small sample. The sterling scouting reports and impressive Rookie League debut earned Alderson some hype going into the 2008 season, as Baseball America ranked him at No. 84 in their Top-100 list.

While the Giants opted to have Bumgarner start his professional career in the Sally, they fast tracked Alderson to High-A as a 19-year-old, as he pitched 26 games and a 145.1 innings in the Cal League. Alderson put up great numbers for a teenager in a league where the average age of pitcher's at the time was 22.8 years old (so he was almost four years younger than the competition, which is a HUGE age difference). He went 13-4 with a 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.64 FIP, and a K/BB ratio of  3.65. He wasn't a strikeout machine like his left-handed counterpart in Augusta (his K/9 was 7.68), but the solid control and command he displayed in his first full year of professional ball had a lot of Giants fans salivating about his potential. In fact, it was commonplace for many Giants fans and baseball analysts to compare Bumgarner and Alderson, and there was a wide contingent of Giants fans that preferred Alderson to Bumgarner at the time.

After the solid campaign in San Jose, Alderson's stock rose dramatically, as Baseball America ranked him the No. 45 prospect in their Top-100. Despite the solid campaign the previous year in San Jose, the Giants opted for him to start the year again in the Cal League, not eager to rush him to the challenges of the Eastern League just yet. Despite a drop in strikeout rate (his K/9 fell to 6.92), Alderson showed even better control in San Jose, as he posted a BB/9 of only 1.04 in a 26 inning sample.

Unfortunately, despite the improved control, Alderson proved to be a less dominant pitcher in his second year in the Cal League. His H/9 rose from 7.7 in 2008 to 10.7, and his ERA and FIP numbers rose to 4.15 and 4.12, respectively. Granted, there wasn't much panic from Giants fans or management because it was only a five start sample, but safe to say, there was some concern that perhaps Alderson didn't have that No. 1 upside as initially thought when drafted, and probably was more of a No. 3 or No. 2 starter at best (Fangraphs/Rotographs' Marc Hulet especially championed this notion).

Still, the Giants eventually promoted Alderson to Double-A Connecticut, and he was able to overcome the lackluster start and post solid numbers in his short campaign with the Defenders before being traded for Sanchez in late July. In 13 starts and 72.2 IP, Alderson posted an ERA of 3.47, a FIP of 3.53, a WHIP of 1.24 and a K/BB ratio of 3.29. But again, while the numbers were solid, Alderson continued to get batted around in the Eastern League, as his H/9 hovered at 9.4. So, while most of the numbers were nice, the fact that hitters were making consistent contact against him continued to worry Giants fans, and made people wonder if Alderson was projecting downward rather than upward as a prospect.

Since being traded to the Pirates, all the concerns and worries about Alderson came into fruition (though it came at the expense of another team, thank God). In 38.2 IP and seven starts in Double-A Altoona, Alderson finished off the 2009 season in mediocre fashion, as he posted an ERA of 4.66, a 4.62 FIP, a 1.34 WHIP, an a K/BB ratio of 1.38 (amplified by a drop in K/9 to 4.19 and rise BB/9 to 3.03). To make matters worse, Alderson was getting a little lucky in Altoona as his BABIP only hovered around .267. If his luck was a little different, it isn't out of the question to think that his 2009 Altoona numbers would have been a lot worse.

The next season for Alderson in Double-A proved to be a challenge and sparked his steep decline as a prospect in the Pirates system. He got batted around hard in 18 starts in Altoona, as his H/9 rose to a career high 11.2 and his ERA inflated to 5.62 in 89.2 IP. The stint in Double-A was so disheartening that the Pirates demoted Alderson to High-A to work on some things, but it didn't seem to help, as he finished the High-A campaign with a 6.98 ERA and 1.92 K/BB ratio in 38.1 IP. Of course, his FIP numbers suggest he wasn't as bad his ERA numbers said in High-A and Double-A (they were 4.47 and 4.82, respectively), but considering Alderson was back in High-A after pitching (and dominating) there as a 19 year old displayed how much of a step back Alderson had taken in such a short period of time.

Alderson last year played in Double-A Altoona for a third time and there was some hope that he could rebound from such a disastrous 2010 campaign. Unfortunately, the Pirates organization had soured on him,  moving him out of the rotation and into the bullpen. He only made one start the whole season and only pitched 74.1 innings in 2011. Despite the move to the bullpen, he didn't show much progress, as he finished the year with a 4.12 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.30 WHIP and a 2.11 K/BB ratio. In the span of less than three years, Alderson went from a prospect with a No. 2-3 ceiling to most likely a middle reliever. Hence, it isn't surprising that Alderson dropped from most Pirates prospects lists by 2012.

The story of Alderson's decline is an interesting one. In many ways, it makes Giants fans wonder: was Alderson's decline a product of his declining or overrated skills as a pitcher? Or is his decline more of an example of an organization's poor development of pitching talent? After all, Scott Barnes, another top pitching prospect in the Giants system who was traded near the deadline the same season as Alderson also went through a steep decline after he left the Giants system (though to be fair, he did bounce back a little in 2011).

In all likelihood, the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle. It was obvious that Alderson was proving to be less and less dominating as he moved up the system, but at the same time, the Giants organization is very efficient when it comes to developing pitching talent. Would Alderson have realized that No. 2 or No. 3 starter potential if he was still in the Giants system? Maybe not, but I don't think he would have gone through such a steep decline either if he was still in the same organization that drafted him.

At the end of the day though, while Bumgarner's story is an example of why organizations need to keep their top farm talent, Alderson is a poster boy for why losing top prospects isn't the end of the world. Remember, the Alderson for Sanchez trade was unpopular at the time amongst baseball circles, as many thought the Giants hadn't learned anything from previous deals like the A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano trade. However, if anything, the Alderson trade probably shows that management does know more about their prospects than we as Giants fans would like to give them credit for. Did Sabes and the Giants management team probably expect Alderson to decline so fast in the Pirates organization? Probably not. But, his skills and stats showed that he was declining and thus, expendable, and they made a deal where they could get a solid piece in return before his value depreciated to the point where he would be untrade-able (as he is now).

As a Giants fan, you can't find much argument with that approach at all.

Prospect Talk: A Look at the Giants Prospects Rankings Around the Blogosphere

I have almost finished compiling my Top-30 list (not writing the posts, but actually coming up with the list). I have gone back and forth quite a bit on it, but I think by the time I finish the "2007 Draft Class" series, the list will be done, and I will start writing some posts on each one.

In the meantime, many other Giants blogs have already gotten a head start on me in terms of making their own Giants prospect lists. A lot of these are from blogs I like and respect, and I would have to be lying if they didn't have some influence on the "eventual" list here. So, if you haven't already, check out these other prospects lists if you want to get a full sense of what Giants nation thinks of prospects in the Giants farm system.


Dr. B's Top-50 Prospects at "When the Giants Come to Town."

I can wholeheartedly admit that Dr. B's blog is the best Giants minor league blog out there. This one pales in comparison. His annual prospects lists are in-depth, but still concise and he always generates good discussion in the comments sections of his posts (if you want to see the individual profiles of this year's list, check it out here). Additionally, you can tell he has a passion for minor league ball if he can make a prospect list that goes all the way to 50. And who came in No. 50? None other than Jean Delgado, a shortstop, of course! (Again...just goes to show you how knowledgeable of the Giants system he really is.)


Marc Hulet of Fangraphs' Top 15 San Francisco Giants Prospects

I'm a big fan of Hulet's Minor League work and how well he analyzes prospects and the draft. He's pretty straight forward in his approach, but he does make some interesting picks (Heath Hembree, who's going in the Top 5 in a lot of prospect lists is at No. 10 while shortstop Ehire Adrianza, who has dropped out of the Top 10 in some lists is at No. 5). Giants fans probably could get a little more comprehensive reading from other sources, and in reality, his lists are pretty streamlined because he has to do so many. That being said, for a good analysis of the Top 15, Hulet's work has been pretty good (and he always reviews his lists on a consistent basis too, which is always nice.)


Bay City Ball's 2012 Top 15 Prospect List Roundtable

This is probably my favorite of the bunch, though not really for the rankings but more for the "roundtable" way they discussed and agreed upon their rankings. It's amazing how BCB has grown from a one-man operation to a nice little staff of writers who all offer a variety of perspectives on the Giants. Definitely check this one out, just to read about how they share or differ on thoughts about certain prospects and how their rankings differ (some rankings were pretty crazy, both in a good and bad way).


Prospect "Nirvana" at Giants Nirvana

Formerly "Splashing Pumpkins," Julian at Giants Nirvana probably runs one of the better independent Giants blogs out there. His analysis is always spot on, and he's always been a big supporter here at OTF. During this time of the year, GN spares no cost when it comes to prospects, as Julian not only has his own Top 20 (20-11 here and 10-1 here), but another writer, Josh (he wasn't around during the Splashing Pumpkins days from what I can remember) has compiled a Top 30 of his own as well (30-21 and 20-11 are both up). Both have very interesting takes as they have a lot of differences in opinion on some of the prospects (Clayton Blackburn and Charlie Culberson were the ones with big differences in their rankings).


John Sickels' 2012 Top 20 Prospects for the Giants

I'm a big fan of Sickels. I like his approach in terms of how he grades his prospects (mixing scouting reports and analysis), I like the A-F grading system, and he is usually concise and straightforward in his analysis of players in the minors in general. He tends to favor high risk, high upside guys (especially pitchers), but for the most part, I usually am in agreement with his rankings, especially in the Giants system. Only disagreement I have with him? Not sure if I would put Andrew Susac at No. 4. Kinda high for a guy with no professional experience (he signed late and didn't play any ball last Summer).


Crazy Crabbers' Top 20 Prospects for 2012

Scott and his crew at CC do a good job. They always do a good job mixing sabermetric analysis with just general Giants fandom in their posts. Amazing that I still have a bio there considering I haven't posted there in like a year. But, that just goes to show you how good sports they are with this stuff. Anyways, I really like the format of their posts (looking at each prospects' best tool and their ceiling) as well as how they have integrated their minor league numbers into graph form. A solid series of posts that I know is only going to get better as they go down the list (they started from No. 1 and went down).

Mixed Six: A Look at the Giants' 2007 Rule 4 Draft

This upcoming Rule 4 draft will mark the fifth anniversary of the 2007 draft. While everyone will remember that draft for the big names such as David Price, Jason Heyward and Matt Wieters (and most likely Mike Moustakas...I'm that big a fan), this draft was also a pretty significant one for the Giants.

In many ways, the end of the 2006 season signified the beginning of the end of the Barry Bonds era. The Giants canned Felipe Alou at the end of the season (the Giants finished 76-85; the Giants tried to make a playoff push by acquiring Shea Hillenbrand, but the deal ended up doing more harm than good), and hired Bruce Bochy, who was coming off a successful campaign for the rival Padres. Additionally, many of the Giants' mainstay players in 2006 opted for greener pastures in the off-season. Seasoned (and often injured) veterans such as Moises Alou and Steve Finley left San Francisco, and suddenly, the Giants' window of opportunity for competing in the NL West looked closed for at least the next couple of years. Yes, the Giants management did sign Barry Zito to a massive contract (a mistake the Giants are still paying for), but it was obvious by the start of Spring Training that the Giants were in rebuilding mode, even in Bonds' last year of his contract.

With the Post-Bonds era looming, Brian Sabean and his management team's biggest moves in 2007 had nothing to do with the Big League roster (sans the Zito deal of course; also getting rid of Matt Morris and his albatross contract wasn't bad either). Instead, the main goal for Sabean and Co. was to restock a farm system that had been left bare by numerous mid-season and off-season transactions in the recent past, and organizational flame outs in the Majors and Minors. (Does Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert, Lance Niekro and Eddy Martinez-Esteve ring any bells?) The 2007 was the right kind of draft to start such a rebuilding process, as the Giants had six (that's right SIX) picks in the first 51 slots of the first and supplemental rounds.

Yes, there was some talent in the Giants system going into 2007 (Matt Cain had made his debut already and Tim Lincecum was set to do so in 2007), but no one would question that behind their top two prospects (Lincecum and Cain) that the system was incredibly weak. So, in 2007, the Giants loaded up on talent, knowing that they had to get younger and build depth in their system if they ever wanted to compete when Bonds left town after the 2007 year.

The 2007 draft class, especially the first six picks, basically are a symbol of the start of the current mold of the Giants system Giants fans see today. Remember, this used to be an organization that preferred veterans to talent within the farm system during the early years of Sabean's regime. However, that took a turn in 2007 (though you could argue Cain and Lincecum really planted the seeds; the 2007 draft class burst the new plan through the dirt) as the organization went through a huge overhaul in terms of how they evaluated and signed players. As most Giants fans will tell you, the plan obviously proved to be a success (2010 World Series).

I could do this in one post, but I don't feel like I would be doing the subject much justice. So instead, I will be breaking down the analysis of the 2007 draft class into four posts. Here is how the breakdown will look like:

Part I: The "First Rounders" (Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson).
Part II: The "Future Duo Up the Middle" (Nick Noonan and Charlie Culberson).
Part III: The "Tools" Guy and the "College" Guy (Wendell Fairley and Jackson Williams).
Part IV: The "Outsiders" (Notable guys drafted outside the first and supplemental round).

Each part will be posted within a couple of days within each other. As you can see from the list above, the results from that 2007 draft have been a bit mixed. Nonetheless, despite the results, the draft above started a process within the Giants system that has not only produced better teams at the Big League level (three straight winning seasons for the Giants from 2009-2011), but a better framework for the organization in terms of acquiring talent, be it through the draft, free agency or international signings.

I also find this all interesting because one has to wonder when the Giants will undergo another change in organizational philosophy similar to 2007. The safe bet seems to be going into the 2014 season, when Lincecum will be a free agent. Will the Giants continue the ride the train that they first started churning in 2007? Or are they preparing for Lincecum to chase the dollar and perhaps prepare to change their identity again?

As for the questions above, only time will tell. I'm not a fortune teller, and as stated before on this blog, I focus more on the Giants' Minor League rosters here, not the Big League one (go to Giants Nirvana, Crazy Crabbers, McCovey Chronicles, or Bay City Ball for that). For now, I'm going to be looking at and analyzing that 2007 class that helped start the process that Giants fans currently see now.

I think that's enough on my plate for now.