OTF Top 30: No. 5, Ehire Adrianza, SS

No. 5, Ehire Adrianza, shortstop



Age: 22
Country: Venezuela
Signing: Signed in 2006
2011 Regular Season numbers: .231 average, .315 OBP, .378 slugging, .692 OPS, .315 wOBA, 90 wRC+, 18 runs scored, 3 home runs, 3 stolen bases (Single-A). .300 average, .375 OBP, .465 slugging, .841 OPS, .377 wOBA, 119 wRC+, 34 runs scored, 3 home runs, 5 stolen bases (High-A).
2011 Winter League numbers: .234 average, .282 OBP, .338 slugging, .620 OPS, 12 runs scored, 1 home run, 0 stolen bases, 0.50 BB/K ratio (Venezuelan Winter League).



Why you should know about Adrianza in 2012?

Adrianza is the best defensive infielder prospect in the Giants system. Even last year, when Brandon Crawford was still a prospect, Adrianza's glove and defensive ability was graded higher than Crawford's by most scouts and Minor League analysts. Though Crawford and the newly-signed Ryan Theirot will be holding down the shortstop position in 2012, Adrianza is certainly a candidate for the position in the next couple of years. If Adrianza's offense can catch up even a little bit to his defense in 2012, it wouldn't be surprising to see him earn a call up at some point this season, especially if other utility infielders like Mike Fontenot and Emmanuel Burriss struggle.


What are Adrianza's strengths as a prospect?

Defense, defense and more defense. Adrianza, according to scouts has "Gold Glove" potential, which isn't something you hear often about a lot of shortstop prospect. He had good range, a solid arm and is very smooth in his mechanics and technique at the position. Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, who ranked Adrianza at No. 8 in his Giants Prospect Top 20, said this about Adrianza's fielding ability:

"There are no doubts about his skills with the glove as he is a plus defender across the board, from his range to his hands to his arm. At the very worst, he’ll have a career as a defensive utility man."

Though he isn't going to give Troy Tulowitzki or Derek Jeter a run for their money in terms of hitting ability, Adrianza has improved at the plate with more professional at-bats. Though he was repeating Single-A and High-A last year (he started in Single-A because he tore a thumb ligament in Spring Training), his OPS improved to .692 and .841 in Augusta and San Jose, respectively. He also displayed more power in his second go-arounds in the Sally and California League, as he posted career high ISOs of .147 and .165 (he did have a .167 ISO in Fresno in 2008, but that was only a two-game sample). So, Adrianza is starting to show more power potential, even if that power ceiling may not be much more than what he displayed last season.

Adrianza's strengths at the plate are his plate approach and his ability to make contact. Despite not hitting for high average so far in the minors (his career average is .252), he has never posted a BB/K ratio under 0.50 since 2009 (his first full professional season) and a strikeout rate over 19 percent (which was his Augusta stint last year where he was still recovering from his thumb injury). His contact rates have also been as stable as his BB/K ratios in his professional career, as he has only posted a contact rate under 80 percent once (with the Green Jackets last year). So, though the averages haven't really illustrated it (though he did hit .300 last year in San Jose), Adrianza has the skills and the potential to be a decent hitting shortstop at Major League level..

Though he isn't known for blazing speed (Rob Gordon of the Minor League Baseball analyst graded his speed as a 3-plus out of 5), Adrianza has showed potential on the basepaths in his career. While his stolen base numbers dipped to 8 total last year between Augusta and San Jose, he did steal 33 bases in 2010 in High-A. While I'm not sure if Adrianza will be a 20-plus threat as a professional (his previous career high was 7, though he did steal 23 in the DSL in 2007 as a 17-year-old), he could be a threat to steal 10-15 bags at the Major League level.


Where might Adrianza struggle?

For as much as scouts and experts rave about Adrianza's glove, they are almost equally as emphatic about his lack of offensive ability. Adam Foster of Project Prospect said this about Adrianza in a game report in 2011:

"Adrianza can’t hit. [I've] seen him 5 [times:] no power, poor [strike] zone judgment/pitch recognition"

I don't know if I would necessarily agree with Foster totally, simply because from what I've seen (I caught a couple of SJ Giants games last year) and from the numbers, the poor strike zone judgement contradicts his statement. Nonetheless, he's got a point when it comes to the lack of power, as the only power he's showed so far came in leagues he was repeating. For the most part, he's been pretty much a contact/singles hitter, and despite sporting some decent speed, it hasn't resulted in many extra base hits in his minor league career. Furthermore, he has a bit of a long swing and load and this was further emphasized by Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally. For a guy like Adrianza, his long swing certainly doesn't help things, simply because he doesn't have much power and he's swinging as if he's got a multitude of it (e.g. probably not the best approach).

Another thing Adrianza has going against him is that he pretty much lost a year of development in 2011. That's not really his fault totally (he was injured to begin the year), but there was some hope that Adrianza would see some time in Double-A in 2011. That didn't happen and now he's going to be 22 and in his sixth year of professional ball as he heads to the Eastern League. To make matters worse, the Eastern League is treacherous on hitters, so Adrianza will certainly have the chips stacked against him at the plate. Does that mean he is absolutely going to struggle? No, but I figured Adrianza would take a couple of years to develop offensively in the Eastern League. Going into last year, I figured he was young enough to do that. Now, well...he's still young enough, but I am less confident about that scenario than I was prior to the beginning of the 2011 season.

So far, Adrianza has only had one good season offensively at the plate in his career, which was last season in San Jose. A lot of experts took the numbers with a grain of salt, simply because it was his second year in High-A. Adrianza didn't do a lot to prove that the numbers were a fluke this Winter, as he struggled offensively in the Venezuelan Winter League. In 28 games, he posted a slash of .238/.282/.338, good for an OPS of .620. While it is a small sample, one would have hoped that Adrianza would have built on his solid campaign in High-A. Instead, he took a small step back.


Grades on Adrianza's Tools:

Hitting for Average/Contact Ability: 15/20 (This is a tough one to grade. If you look at the averages, he doesn't project to be a .300 hitter at the next level. However, if you look at the contact rates, one would think that he certainly has the ability to be a solid hitter at the next level. Last year in San Jose was a good sign. After a somewhat disappointing second stint in the Sally to begin 2011, Adrianza did extremely well in San Jose, hitting .300 and posting a career high .845 OPS. Of course, those averages are probably going to regress naturally in the Eastern League, but if Adrianza continues to sport the skills he showed in CL last season, then the numbers should still be decent for a shortstop.)
Plate Approach: 17/20 (Despite Foster's adamant stance, I think Adrianza has a solid approach. He doesn't strike out a lot, he walks at a good clip and his BB/K ratio has consistently been above average as a professional. His pitch recognition isn't perfect by any standard, but I think Adrianza's discipline at the plate is a strong tool he has going for him.)
Power: 12/20 (He just doesn't have much, and I don't think he'll develop much either. I think he's 6-8 home run guy at the Majors, maybe 10 max. He's got a good frame at six-feet, but he probably projects power-wise more to Elvis Andrus than Tulowitzki.)
Speed: 16/20 (It has showed so much on the basepaths, but Adrianza is athletic and has potential. At the very least, he is efficient on the basepaths, as he was successful on five of his six attempts last season. I still look at the 30 stolen bases in 2010 as a sign that he is capable of swiping 10-15 at the Major League level.)
Defense: 20/20 (Probably a little optimistic, but Adrianza is a wizard with the glove. I have seen it in video and in reports. His glove, range and arm strength are legitimate and Gold Glove-worthy.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 16/20 (He's coming off a thumb injury and he repeated Single-A and High-A, so those things go against him. However, he has showed improvement at the plate on a year to year basis, so it's evident that he's taking well to instruction. Even though he's struggled, I think his experience in the VWL will help him, simply because of the exposure to a lot of Major League vets like Pablo Sandoval.)


Overall Grade: B
Projection: Starting Major League shorstop. At worst, utility infielder; at best, Gold-glove shortstop.

Summary: It all depends on how he develops at the plate offensively in 2012. A bad year, and well...his stock is going to take a major hit. A good year, and well, he could challenge for the shortstop position in 2013. Right now, it seems more people are leaning more toward the former than the latter, but I am optimistic that his approach and ability to make contact will carry him in Richmond. Some people will believe I'm ranking Adrianza too high, but he's still young and his defensive tool is plus-plus in my mind. His glove alone will carry him to the Majors, especially in this era of "defense-conscious" baseball. Whether he'll be able to be more than a late-innings defensive specialist though is still a question for debate.

OTF Top 30: No. 4, Heath Hembree, RHP

No. 4: Heath Hembree, right-handed pitcher



Age: 23
Drafted: Fifth round (168 overall) of the 2010 MLB Draft
College: College of Charleston
2011 Regular Season numbers: 26 games, 24.2 IP, 16 hits allowed, 2 runs allowed, 12 walks, 44 strikeouts, 0.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 1.74 FIP, 3.67 BB/K (High-A). 28 games, 28.2 IP, 20 hits allowed, 11 runs allowed, 13 walks, 34 strikeouts, 2.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.64 FIP, 2.62 FIP (Double-A)
2011 Fall/Winter League numbers: None


Why You Should Know about Hembree in 2012:

With Zack Wheeler being traded for Carlos Beltran last July, Hembree emerges as the Giants' best pitching prospect in the system. While a power reliever being the prized pitching prospect isn't necessarily a good sign, Hembree is the kind of prospect who could be making his debut in the Majors as early as this season. Furthermore, with Brian Wilson going through a multitude of health-related issues, and going to be a free agent after next season, Hembree gives the Giants some leverage, as it is totally plausible to think Hembree taking up Wilson's mantle in the closer's spot should he leave town for a higher contract.



What are Hembree's Strengths as a Prospect?

Under the radar in 2010 (he was a fifth round pick in the 2010 draft), Keith Law of ESPN remarked that Hembree was a sleeper prospect in the Giants system when he came out with his Giants Top Prospects list. Law proved to be right, as Hembree dominated the California League and did extremely well in the Eastern League in his first full year. While Hembree did post excellent numbers in the rookie league after signing (he struck out 22 and walked zero...that's right ZERO!), not many people expected Hembree to have the breakout he did at both levels last year.

Hembree's strengths as a prospect are his plus fastball and impeccable ability to strike people out. His fastball goes in the 93-97 MPH range, topping out at 99 MPH according to reports. Furthermore, he has a power sliders that sits in the 84-86 MPH range, according to scouts. This lethal combination led to a 16.05 and 10.67 percent strikeout percentage in High-A and Double-A last season, which is exactly the kind of K/9 rates you want to see out of a potential closer.

Furthermore, in addition to striking out a lot of people, Hembree does not give up a lot of hits and displays above average command for a reliever. His WHIP was 1.16 and 1.17 in the California and Eastern League, respectively, and his BB/K ratios were also solid at 3.7 and 2.6. Hembree has worked hard to get to where he is currently at as a prospect, as coaches have helped smooth Hembree's mechanics and work on not overthrowing, according to Rob Gordon of the Minor League Baseball analyst. With this kind of upward progression, there seems to be a lot of promise for Hembree in the future, especially in the Giants bullpen, which has been a strong point of the Giants' success the past couple of seasons.



Where Might Hembree Struggle as a Prospect?

Though his stuff is absolutely dominating, Hembree at the core remains a two pitch pitcher with a reliever ceiling, which isn't all that valuable at the end of the day. With his stuff, one would hope that the Giants would be able to stretch more innings out of him, but Hembree hadn't pitched many innings in college after bouncing around from South Carolina to junior college to the College of Charleston in a three year span. Hence, Hembree's best case scenario remains as a closer, which doesn't leave him much room for error when it comes to his value and status as a prospect.

Hembree sports a big frame at six-foot, four inches and 210 pounds (he actually lost 10 pounds since becoming a professional), but, according to Perfect Game.com writer Allan Simpson, "he's far from a finished product." His biggest Achilles Heels has to be his control and inconsistency in command. Here's what Simpson said in a writeup on Hembree when he was drafted in 2010:

"Despite his explosive fastball and powerful, athletic frame, the 6-foot-4, 220-pound righthander is far from a finished product, and his end-of-game role for the College of Charleston has it difficult for higher-level scouts to see him. In 21 appearances covering 23 innings (through mid-May), he was 5-2, 6.17 with four saves and had walked 15 while striking out 33. Though Hembree’s fastball is his primary weapon, it can often be straight and college hitters have teed off on it..."

The same reports have been true for Hembree as a professional.  While his strikeouts rates have been impressive for a reliever, his control (walk) rates haven't. In San Jose, he posted a walk rate of 4.38 and in Richmond it was 4.08, only a .30 improvement. Now, considering it was his first full year as a professional, a little slack can be considered (especially since his college career was so limited and sporadic). Nonetheless, if he wants to be rated as an elite reliever at the Minor and Major League level, he'll need to decrease those walk rates and find a little bit more control as a pitcher. With only two "real" pitches (he's starting to develop a changeup, but it's far from polished), and a fastball that has been described as "straight" and "hittable" by scouts, he can't afford to put too many batters on base by balls.


Another red flag that hasn't really showed up so far as a professional but could rear it's ugly head in the future is Hembree's injury history. Hembree suffered a torn ACL as a college senior and struggled to find himself a spot in the rotation or bullpen at South Carolina. Though he bounced back in junior college and at Charleston, the injury history could be an issue, simply because of Hembree's large frame, and one never knows with knee injuries, especially when they occur at such a young age. We have seen prospects bounce back from them before, but we have also seen injuries hinder prospects from reaching their full potential as well.




Grades on Hembree's Tools

Fastball: 19/20 (He's got a power fastball, and it is definitely his plus-plus pitch. It can go as high as 99 MPH, but it sits at 93-97 MPH regularly, which is still very impressive. It can be pretty straight when he's overthrowing, but it seems like his pitching coaches have helped him refrain from doing that too often. With long fingers and a solid frame, Hembree has the potential to keep the firepower behind his fastball for a good while.)
Slider: 18/20 (The slider has gotten good reports, as it has good cutting action and sits in the 84-88 MPH range. It has been described as a four-plus out of five pitch, according to Gordon of the MLBA.)
Changeup: 14/20 (A fairly new pitch for him, as his repertoire in college and last season was his fastball and slider. He used it rarely in 2011, and it hasn't seemed to impress people so far. With his fastball velocity though, it could be a very effective pitch with some development.)
Mechanics: 18/20 (Mechanics were a bit of a question mark for Hembree when he was drafted, but it seems like he and the coaching staffs in the Giants organization have done a good job with him so far. For the most part, his delivery is smooth and he isn't putting too much effort out either. When you watch him on tape, his pitching motion looks solid and consistent, which is pretty much all you can ask for from a pitching prospect at this point.)
Command/Control: 16/20 (The strikeout rates certainly help him greatly in this category. However, walking over four batters every nine innings isn't exactly a promising sign for a reliever, especially one that is expected to close out games. Of course, his control isn't awful by any stretch, but as stated before, if he wants to be an elite reliever, he has to start cutting down the walks.)
Ceiling: 16/20 (Hembree could be a shut-down closer or setup man at the Major League level, but that's as high as his ceiling gets. At 23 years old and with two plus pitches and a sub-par changeup, Hembree doesn't exactly fit the mold of a guy who could learn to be a starting pitcher at the professional level. Of course, that's not a bad thing, but as mentioned earlier, it leaves very little room for error.)
Health/Makeup: 17/20 (Injury set back his college career a bit after tearing his ACL as a high school senior, but the injury bug hasn't hit him since. That being said, he hasn't pitched a lot of innings in either his professional or college career, so how his arm holds up as he progresses through the system and eats more innings will be something for the Giants brass and fans to pay attention to. He transferred twice in college and wasn't exactly a high end draft pick, but he hasn't let those things deflate him and he has put up a nice professional career so far.)


Overall Grade: B
Projection: Middle relief with closer/setup man potential.


Summary: Brian Wilson's injury issues are setting up a lot of attention on Hembree, which could be both good and bad. Last year, Hembree was a bit under the radar and was able to succeed. Now, with more tape and scouting reports on him, he won't go as unnoticed into 2012 as he did into 2011. Nonetheless, his plus fastball and slider, big frame, and history of success point to a career heading in the right direction. With Wilson a free agent after next season, it is entirely possible that Hembree could see some action in the Giants bullpen in 2012 and perhaps have a shot at the closer's spot in 2013 if he experiences Major League success this season.

OTF Top 30: No. 3, Tommy Joseph, C/1B

No. 3: Tommy Joseph, Catcher/First Base



Age: 20
Drafted: Second Round (55th overall) of the 2009 Draft
High School: Horizon High School (Arizona)
2011 Regular Season numbers: .270 average, .317 OBP, .471 slugging, .787 OPS, .340 wOBA, 95 wRC+, 80 runs scored, 22 home runs, 95 RBI (High-A)
2011 Fall/Winter Season numbers: None


Why you should know about Joseph:

After his vicious injury last year in the collision with the Marlins' Scott Cousins, Buster Posey and his future at the catcher's position is in doubt. While Posey obviously has all the tools to be a super star Major League catcher, whether or not he can handle the position physically post-injury and whether the Giants want to keep him there post-injury (remember, Posey earned the highest signing bonus for a draft pick in club history at $6.25 million in 2008) is yet to be determined. Thus, there has been a strong emphasis on the development of catching prospects in the Giants system, especially since the Giants got such meager production from the position in 2011 from Eli Whiteside and Chris Stewart.

Joseph probably has the most upside of any of the catching prospects in the Giants system. He is only 20 years old, but has played two full years of professional ball in the Sally and California League. While there will be a push from recent 2011 draft pick Andrew Susac, there will be a lot of focus on Joseph's development as he makes the move up to Double-A Richmond in 2012. Safe to say, Joseph's development as game caller and hitter in the Eastern League will have an effect on what the Giants will plan to do with Posey in 2013 and beyond.


What Are Joseph's Strengths as a Prospect?

Joseph has a few things going for him: his position, his power and his youth. Joseph broke into Single-A ball at the age of 18, right out of Horizon High School in Arizona (a school that also produced first round pitching prospect Tim Alderson, who is now in the Pirates organization). The Giants fast tracked him a little bit, and Joseph had to go through a trial by fire in his first full professional season. In fact, if you judge Joseph solely by his numbers, it doesn't look all that good. He only hit .236 with an OPS of .691 and he struggled with pitch recognition and plate patience in his debut season, as he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.22, highlighted by a 24.5 percent strikeout rate. Defensively, he struggled with injuries and getting accustomed to the position as a professional, as Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally (and now Fangraphs) remarked this about Joseph's defense after his season with the Green Jackets:

"Drafted as a catcher, I’m under the impression he is unlikely to stick there over the long haul.  With his present agility rating below average, it is likely to only become worse in time.  And while his arm was plenty strong for the position (Keith Law graded it a 60 in a recent tweet), Joseph’s mechanics on throws to second base included poor footwork and a tendency to stand straight up instead of fire out towards the base.  This not only hurts his pop times, but causes undue stress on the shoulder which could lead to injury.  Additionally, his transfer was sloppy which hampered his release.  With Joseph appearing a number of times at first base and designated hitter, the San Francisco Giants organization may already see the writing on the wall."

Despite his status as a prospect taking a hit after the 2010 season, the Giants moved Joseph up to San Jose in 211 and he performed much better there offensively and defensively. His OPS improved to .782 and he made good on the positive reports of his power when he was drafted by belting 22 home runs and 32 doubles in 560 plate appearances. Additionally, he allowed less passed balls (13 to 19 in 2010) and threw out more runners (37 to 26) in San Jose, a sign that his defense is starting to improve with more professional experience.

Joseph's calling card is his power and he has showed flashes of that power as a professional (38 home runs as a professional so far). He has a strong, smooth swing with ample pop (scouts have graded his power potential as a 60). Furthermore, though he may not be the best defensive catcher in the Giants system, his arm strength is a plus tool of his, and he was able to display that in the California League in 2011, where he was much healthier than in 2010 in the Sally, where he was battling with nagging injuries almost all season long.

While the numbers aren't of an elite prospect just yet, there is still a lot of time for Joseph to develop as a prospect, and the fact that he'll be 20 and playing in Double-A is a good sign for the Giants that he is progressing nicely. Furthermore, Joseph's power tool set seems to be for real and I think he is totally capable of transitioning that tool set (as well as his arm) to Double-A, even though the Eastern League tends to favor pitchers.


Where Might Joseph Struggle as a Prospect?

The big issue with Joseph is his plate approach which frankly, hasn't been very good. Even in a breakout 2011 with San Jose, his BB/K ratio was 0.28, not much of an improvement from 2010 (though he did decrease his strikeout percentage to 18.2). Joseph is overly aggressive at the plate and with his power, he would benefit from being more selective. The silver lining in all of this though is that he is still young and is having to balance between becoming a game caller and developing as a hitter. As he gains more experience as a catcher, he will be able to concentrate more on his plate approach, and hopefully the BB/K ratios will improve.

As stated before though, how much time Joseph has as a catching prospect is hard to determine, especially with the Giants drafting Susac this past draft. Susac is far more developed defensively than Joseph and he may be a better option down the road behind the plate than Joseph, even if Joseph may have more offensive upside. Hence, a move to first base seems likely for Joseph in the future and though he does sport some good athleticism (he has a six-foot, one inch, 215 pound frame), Brandon Belt ahead of him at the Major League level certainly is a roadblock in that path. Furthermore, one has to wonder if Joseph would even fit in at the position in the Giants organization. Joseph's hitting abilities would be above-average for a catching prospect, but most likely average to below average for a first baseman.

Lastly, though the organization will have patience with him in his move to Richmond in 2012, he will have a lot of challenges ahead of him in the Eastern League. The EL definitely is a measuring stick for prospects, especially offensively, and even though the High-A numbers are nice, offensive stats in the California League are always taken with a grain of salt. If he struggles, it won't be the end of the world, but it will be interesting to see if he'll be able to handle the rigors of Double-A, continue to develop behind the plate defensively, and still display his plus tools (power and arm strength). A lot of Giants prospects have tumbled in Double-A and were unable to bounce back, even ones who were young for the league (Nick Noonan being the most prime example). I think Joseph has a shot to hold his own in Double-A, but considering the plate approach he displayed in Augusta and San Jose, the odds will be against him. One can only hope that his confidence won't be derailed at such a young age.


Grades on Joseph's Tools:

Hitting for Average/Contact Ability: 15/20 (Joseph hasn't showed signs of being a .300 hitter in the minors so far, and I highly doubt he will be as he progresses up the system. He did improve his contact rate from 73 percent in Augusta to 80 percent in San Jose, but he still only finished the year in San Jose with a .270 average. Even though he may not be a .300 hitter, it is plausible to think that Joseph can be a .260-.280 average hitter, and with his power tool set, that may be enough for him to progress to the big league level.)
Plate Approach: 14/20 (Definitely the weakest tool of Joseph's arsenal. His walk rate actually decreased almost a percent from Augusta, and his BB/K ratio has never touched the 0.30 mark, which isn't a good sign. I think he has the ability to improve his approach, and certain prospects in the Giants system have done that in the past - Brandon Crawford being the most recent example. However, if there is anything that is going to hold Joseph back as a prospect, it's going to be his over-aggressiveness at the plate.)
Power: 19/20 (I think Joseph has real power, and I think he can be a 20-plus home run hitter at the Major League level, which would be invaluable as a catcher. Even despite the poor Augusta numbers, he still posted a .165 ISO and last year he improved that ISO to .200. Furthermore, it's not just home runs that Joseph hits, as he posted extra base hit rates of 38 and 41 percent in his first two years as a professional. If his plate approach is going to hold Joseph back as a prospect, then it's his power that's going to progress him, because it's that solid a tool.)
Speed: 13/20 (He's a catcher, so he isn't going to be depended on or expected to steal bags. However, Joseph has some athleticism for a catcher, as his speed was graded a two by Rob Gordon of the Minor League Baseball Analyst. Furthermore, his doubles numbers and extra base hit percentages show that he will be able to stretch out hits and isn't just a station to station base clogger.)
Defense: 16/20 (I am a little more generous with this grade than most out there, but I think he's trending upward defensively, based on the numbers and scouting reports from his tenure in San Jose. The arm strength has always been there, but now he is practicing better technique and fundamentals behind the plate, which is only going to get better as he gets older and more professional instruction. I don't think he'll be an elite defensive prospect, but I certainly think he has the ability to be a starting catcher at the Major League level.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 17/20 (He dealt with some injuries his debut year in the Sally, but those seemed to be a thing of the past in the California League, as he played in a 127 games as a 19 year old. The age definitely favors him, and his ability to improve defensively also shows that Joseph is coach-able and can adapt quickly. Also, his athleticism gives him some flexibility to play multiple positions, though he may be limited to first base and perhaps a corner infield position at the most.)


Overall Grade: B
Projection: Starting Major League catcher; perhaps a utility player that can split time between catcher and first base.

Summary: Joseph ranks in at No. 3 because of his youth and position, though he does have some good tools that make him a legitimate prospect in my mind. Best case scenario: Joseph has the potential to be a Mike Napoli-esque player (as Marc Hulet suggests in his Giants Top-15 roundup). I also think Joseph could be a Chris Iannetta-esque player offensively (low average, but good slugging and OPS numbers), though I don't think he could match Iannetta defensively. Overall, it'll be an interesting year, and there will be a lot of debate once the season starts between Giants fans about whether Joseph or Susac is the better catching prospect. I like Joseph a lot more, but Susac will definitely give Joseph a push because of his defensive prowess. That being said, if Joseph continues to flash the power he's showed before in the Sally and Cal League this year in Richmond, then I think Joseph will continue to hold off Susac at the position a little bit longer.

Some Changes to the OTF Top 30 List

I decided to make some changes to the Top-30 Prospects list. While I did put some time into my rankings, there were some rankings in retrospect I felt needed to be changed. Is it the most professional thing to do? Probably not, but I want to at least make a list that is accurate of my feeling for the organization's prospects. I think for now, I am pretty confident in this list and there won't be any further changes made.

Here's a list of the changes:

1.) The most notable change I made was moving Angel Villalona into the rankings at No. 30. To be honest, I wanted to put him here initially, but I withdrew because I wasn't even sure he'd be playing this year (So I went with the high upside, but still questionable pitcher Kendry Flores instead). Now that news has broken that he has received his work visa, I feel I can put him in now, especially since I think he is better prospect than Flores, despite the layoff. I do agree that it's a generous ranking and if you put a gun to my head, my initial thought would be that it is unlikely that he'll pan out as a grade C prospect. But remember, Villalona was a Top-50 prospect according to BA a few years ago, and he is still relatively young (he's only 21 years old), so there is some potential to salvage something with Villalona.

2.) I rose outfielder Francisco Peguero in the rankings to No. 7, and consequently increased his grade from a B- to a B. As much as I dislike the plate approach and the lack of walks, Pegeuro's tools rate too strong for him to be considered a B- prospect. I was tempted to put Peguero over Andrew Susac, but I feel Susac's position (catcher) gives him the advantage.

3.) Likewise, I dropped Kyle Crick to No. 8 and Eric Surkamp to No. 9. I decreased Crick's grade to a B-, while Surkamp's grade stayed the same at a B-. Another change I made was increasing Hector Sanchez's grade from a C+ to a B-. I felt I shorted Sanchez a little too much when coming up the rankings and at No. 10, he deserves at least a B- grade.

OTF Top 30: No. 2, Joe Panik, SS/2B

No. 2: Joe Panik, Shortstop/Second Baseman



Age: 21 years old
Drafted: First round (29th overall) in the 2011 Draft
College: St. John's (NY)
2011 Regular Season numbers: .341 average, .401 OBP, .467 slugging, .868 OPS, .403 wOBA, 144 wRC+, 49 runs scored, 6 home runs, 13 stolen bases (Short Season)
2011 Fall/Winter League numbers: .323 average, .394 OBP, .473 slugging, .867 OPS, .389 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 6 runs scored, 2 home runs, 0 stolen bases (AFL)


Why you should know about Panik:

The much maligned pick in the 29th slot, Panik has come a long way to prove his doubters wrong in such a short period of time. Many experts expected Panik to go somewhere late in the supplemental round or even the second, but the Giants swooped him up late in the first round and after signing early, he came on with a vengeance in Salem Keizer, proving to be one of the Northwest League's better hitters. Panik doesn't wow scouts with his athleticism or tools, but his stat lines and disciplined plate approach in college and as a professional have started to make some doubters into believers.



What Are Panik's Strengths as a Prospect?

Without a doubt, Panik has a very sound approach at the plate. It was his calling card as a prospect in college at St. John's, and he has seamlessly transitioned that excellent plate discipline to the professional level, as evidenced by his stints in the Northwest League and Arizona Fall League. At St. John's, Panik posted BB/K ratios of 1.81, 2.24 and 1.83 his last three years with the Red Storm, and in 304 plate appearances with the Volcanoes, he sported a ratio of 1.12. However, it's not just his ability to take walks that has experts and scouts turning their heads, but he has showed an impeccable ability to make contact as a hitter. He averaged a 91 percent contact rate in college, and his contact rate was also 91 percent in his stint in the NWL last season. Hence, it comes as no surprise that Panik is going to be a threat to be a high-average hitter, and that was the case last year as he posted batting averages of .398 and .341 at St. John's and Salem Keizer, respectively. (And if that wasn't enough, Panik earned the Northwest League batting title with his .341 average; not bad for a guy who was playing college ball the same year.)

In addition, while the batting average numbers are nice, Panik has showed some glimpses of power for a middle infielder. At St. John's, he belted 20 homers combined in his last two years, as well as slugging percentages of .621 and .642 his last two years as an amateur. While the power dipped when he made the transition to wooden bats (as expected for most, if not all, college prospects), it still remained solid for a middle infielder, as he posted a slugging of .467 in the NWL and .473 with the Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League. While Panik isn't going to post Tulowitzki or even Utley-like numbers, he certainly could be a threat for 10-15 home runs on an annual basis.

Defensively, while he doesn't sport a ton of athleticism, scouting reports have remarked that he is still an above average defender that can hold his own in the field. Rob Gordon of the 2012 Minor League Baseball Analyst rated his glove a 3 plus out of 5 and that he gets the most out of his abilities. In the NWL, he also flashed a 4.59 RF/G and .964 fielding percentage, not bad considering it was his first year as a professional.


Where Might Panik Struggle?

The disparity in Panik's rankings is a classic case of the "scouts vs. stats" argument when evaluating prospects. On paper, Panik looks like a stud. He gets on base, he hits for high average, he has good power for a middle infielder, and he shows a patient approach along with a strong ability to make contact at the plate. When you look at his numbers, not only does he look like an everyday player, but he also has the potential to be an All-Star middle infielder.

However, the scouts aren't as kind. Keith Law was adamant against the pick on draft day, and even though he warmed up a little to him after his Northwest League campaign, Law still doesn't feel he is a very high caliber prospect (he believes that Panik is a utility player at best). To be honest, from a scouting standpoint, one can understand where Law, and a lot of other baseball experts come from. If you ever watch him on tape, nothing about Panik stands out. His swing is good, but it's not the kind of smooth motion one would expect from a .300-plus hitter. Furthermore, he doesn't look all that athletic, and defensively, nothing he does is very impressive. He doesn't have a cannon, his glove isn't especially quick, you feel like his footwork could be better, etc. If you look at him on video, you would think he was a fourth or fifth round prospect, not a former first rounder.

And that is what makes Panik's upcoming year so intriguing. He's dominated in college and in the Northwest League and in the Arizona Fall League despite having average to slightly above average tools at best. Hence, one has to wonder if the numbers will start to regress wants he faces more talented pitching and better competition. Scouts would say he will regress, while the stat "guys" would say his approach will lead to sustainable success. At this point though, we as Giants fans wouldn't probably know until he hits the field wherever he should be on Opening Day (should it be Augusta or San Jose, but most likely San Jose).


Grades on Panik's Tools

Hitting for Average/Contact ability: 19/20 (He hit for high average in college and high average in the NWL and the AFL. In the hitter friendly Cal League, he should be able to sustain that success. However, watching his swing in person prevents me from giving him a perfect score. That being said, the numbers don't lie, and Panik should be a perennial threat for .300 over his minor league career.)
Plate Approach: 19/20 (Probably the best aspect of Panik's game. The league average BB/K ratio is usually 0.50. Panik posted over double that ratio in his first stint of professional ball. While I think his gaudy BB/K ratios won't carry as he moves up the system, he should be a guy who's consistently getting on base and setting himself up to score runs.)
Power: 14/20 (While he has posted some gaudy slugging percentages for a middle infielder in college and in the NWL and AFL, Panik's power potential doesn't seem very high. He has a nice swing that will provide some surprising pop, but he probably has a ceiling of about 10-15 home runs, and even that is being generous. He definitely has some gap to gap power, but it'll be interesting to see how his power progresses as he moves up to High-A and Double-A ball. It is probably more realistic to think that his slugging will hover in the .420-.440 range as he progresses in the Giants system.)
Speed: 16/20 (Panik is not a burner on the basepaths or in the field. He is opportunistic while on the bases, as evidenced by his 13 stolen bases with the Volcanoes. That being said, he was far from perfect, as he was caught five times. Panik could be an occasional threat on the basepaths, especially considering how often he gets on base. Still though, his speed is probably average at best.
Defense: 17/20 (Judging from scouting reports and what I have seen on tape, it's obvious that Panik's days at shortstop are limited. With Crawford at the Major League level, and Adrianza and Carter Jurica much more highly heralded defensive prospects, Panik probably would be better suited for the keystone position. As a second baseman though, his defense would most likely hold up well and his lack of arm strength wouldn't be as exposed as it would at shortstop (which is why I grade him a 17; if he stays at SS, it's probably a 16 or even as low as 15). Furthermore, with Nick Noonan flaming out, Charlie Culberson's future questionable, and Brock Bond most likely a Four-A player, second base would be a prime opportunity for Panik to move quickly in the Giants system.)
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 19/20 (Panik showed a lot by signing quickly after draft day. displaying he is interested in playing baseball rather than negotiating a higher paycheck. After all the negative attention about being "overdrafted," he took care of business and probably had the best season out of anyone drafted in the 2011 draft. So far, Panik hasn't had any injury issues of note and he had the reputation of being a gamer both with the Volcanoes and at St. John's, which definitely sits well in his favor.


Overall grade: B+
Projection: Starting Major League Second Baseman; has the potential to be a solid, though not spectacular contributor.

Summary: Panik has everything I would want from a middle infielder prospect: an excellent plate approach, a little bit of pop, decent defense, and passable speed. Is he spectacular? No. Will his tools wow you? Heck no. Is he going to be a perennial All-Star? Most likely not. However, keep this in mind: Kolten Wong was rated as one of the best middle infielders in the draft last year, and Panik pretty much went toe to toe last year with Wong on a statistical basis. However, Kolten Wong signed for $1.5 million. Panik? He went for $1.1 million. So, the Giants saved $400 K and pretty much got the same player on paper. Panik is going to be the kind of "value" player in my mind, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him continue to give the Giants value on investment as he progresses in the Giants system.

OTF Top 30: No. 1, Gary Brown, OF

There has been a huge delay in posts. I know consistency has been something of a problem in the past, but I had some things at work that got in the way and it was hard to find time to really sit down and write. Now though, I have a little free time, so I should be able to start posting. I will get back to the 2007 prospect retrospective later, but I wanted to get through the profiles first before Spring Training. So, without further delay, here's the first profile in the Top 30.

No.1: Gary Brown, Outfielder



Age: 23 years old
Drafted: First Round (24th overall) in 2010 Draft
College: Cal State Fullerton
2011 regular season numbers: .336 average, .407 OBP, .519 slugging, .925 OPS, .411 wOBA, 140 wRC+, 115 runs scored, 14 home runs, 53 stolen bases (High-A)
2011 Fall League/Winter League numbers: .220 average, .278 OBP, .300 slugging, .578 OPS, .266 wOBA, 40 wRC+, 6 runs scored, 1 home run, 2 stolen bases (AFL)


Why You Should Know About Brown in 2012:

Brown is the consensus top prospect in the Giants system and for good reason. He had an absolutely phenomenal year in the California League in his first full professional year. While he had a stellar career at baseball powerhouse Cal State Fullerton, many baseball experts felt Brown was a bit of a reach at the 24th slot in the 2010 draft. However, after last year, not only did he help change the minds of a lot of those naysayers, but he also became valuable to the point where the Giants were willing to trade former Top 10 pick Zack Wheeler in the Carlos Beltran deal over Brown.


What Are Brown's Strengths as a Prospect?

Brown's speed is his calling card and his plus tool as a prospect. Brown recorded a 3.80 time down the first line according to scouts, which is absolutely blazing (4.00 is usually a plus score), and last year in San Jose, Brown did steal 53 bags to boot. However, while the speed on the basepaths is nice, Brown was known for being a solid contact hitter (he posted a 94 percent contact rate in his last year at Fullerton) and in San Jose he proved much of the same as he posted an above .300 batting average and a contact rate of 86 percent. Furthermore, he also showed some gap to gap power, as he hit 34 doubles, 13 triples and 14 home runs in 638 plate appearances in San Jose in 2012 (which added up to a sterling .519 slugging).

Offensively, Brown's bat turned a lot of heads in 2011, and rightfully so. His speed, contact ability, and surprising power (especially to the gaps) make him an ideal leadoff hitter for the Giants in the future (currently Angel Pagan is slotted in the spot and he's only on a one year contract). However, defensively, Brown also rates very strong and he seems to be more than capable of handling the dimensions of AT&T's spacious park. Brown posted a 2.25 RF/G and a .989 fielding percentage in 2011. He also recorded 16 assists, not bad considering scouts rate his arm as average at best. That being said, he does have excellent range in the outfield, and has an aggressive mindset in the field as well (though at times it can be an enemy as he overplays some balls...that will get better with more experience though and is correctable). MLB Prospect Portal.com was very high on his defensive potential, as they rated his defense a 55 now, but with 70 potential (on a 20-80 scale).


Where Might Brown Struggle?

Though he had very good college numbers, Brown hasn't done anything to disprove the notion that he isn't anything more than a "California League" wonder. Now, like I said, his college numbers were very good, he has excellent tools, and his California League campaign looks incredible all across the board. That being said, he did not have a very good year statistically in Rookie ball or the Northwest League in 2010 (he posted batting averages under .200 and wOBA's of .311 and .225, respectively). In addition, his 2011 AFL campaign was extremely underwhelming offensively  (.220 average, .266 wOBA). While those numbers are simply too small of samples to really hold against him (99 plate appearances total between those three stints), there will be immense pressure on Brown to perform in Richmond, especially since a lot of Giants fans envision him as the Giants starting center fielder in 2013. A lot of hitters have struggled in the transition from the California League to the Eastern League, and hence, their development stagnated along with their bats. I don't think Brown will fall in that category (as I mentioned in this earlier post), but it is something to think about as a Giants fan.

The only real concern about Brown (other than his arm strength, which is graded as mostly average by scouts; but he's a centerfielder and it's fine for his position) is probably his plate approach, which was much maligned going into the 2010 draft. Basically, Brown doesn't walk very much. It isn't Francisco Peguero-bad, but he's not going to be piling up the free passes either. Last year, he showed a lot of improvement from his college numbers (he only drew 9 walks in 210 at-bats in 2010 with the Titans), as he garnered 46 bases on balls (a 7.4 percent walk rate) and a BB/K ratio of 0.60. That being said, in the AFL, he only drew 1 walk in 55 plate appearances (a 1.8 percent rate), a bit of a regression from his solid approach in San Jose (though as stated before, it's a small sample). One of the plus aspects of Brown's game is not only his ability to make contact, but his speed. Though he could be a little more selective on the basepaths (he was caught 19 times last year), 53 stolen bases is nothing to shrug about. Brown could be one of the Giants' best stolen base threats in a long time (better than even Andres Torres, who had great speed, but did not accumulate a lot of stolen bases). However, if he struggles to get walks and recognize pitches, it's going to limit his value, because that speed will be on the bench rather than on the basepaths. (Though as I've said in my earlier post about Brown, his sneaky value comes in his HBP numbers, which make his BB/K ratios even better when you add them in to the ratio; so that could be something that could make up for the lack of walks).

A nitpicky thing I have read a lot of scouts complain about is Brown's mechanics in the batter's box. A lot of scouts feel he has too much movement pre-swing, and that it makes them wonder if his noisy mechanics will hinder him as he climbs up the system and faces better pitching. To be honest, yes, I think Brown in the batter's box looks ugly. I don't like all the movement with his legs (he twitches his back leg a lot) and he does at times show cases of "happy feet" (where he's moving his feet in the batter's box prior to the swing), though it doesn't seem as bad as it was in college. That being said, I think that concern about Brown is down the ladder with me, perhaps even a non-issue to be frank. Once Brown gets loaded up for his swing, everything looks good, and he gets out of the batter's box fast for a right handed hitter. From what I've seen, none of his quirkiness does anything to hinder his approach or swing. Is it the prettiest swing in the world? Probably not. But is it effective? Absolutely, and until it ceases to be effective, I'll consider the "noise" pre-swing as a minimal issue at best.


Grades on Brown's Tools:

Hitting for Average/Contact Ability: 18/20 (He was good in college and made strides last year; I think he should be a mid-80 percent contact hitter who'll threaten the .300 mark on an annual basis).
Plate Approach: 17/20 (Showed good discipline in 2011, but before I grade it in the A-minus range, I want to see him transition that for a second straight year).
Power: 16/20 (Depends how you view power; if it's big flies, than he's got C-grade power at best; if it's gap to gap power, Brown has a ton of potential, and this grade could go up next year if he can hold up his gap to gap power in the Eastern League in 2012).
Speed: 20/20 (Gary Brown is FAST. Enough said.)
Defense: 18/20 (Big knock is his average arm, but his range and aggressiveness make up for it; as a center fielder, I think he could have big-play, Gold Glove potential).
Health/Makeup/Intangibles: 19/20 (No major injury issues and did play 131 games last year in San Jose; seems like an upstanding guy too, which doesn't help you a ton as a prospect, but it's better than being a jerk, which seems to hurt you more than one would think as a prospect; either way, he seems like he could easily fit with other baby faces like Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, and Brandon Belt at the Big League level).


Overall Grade: A-minus.
Projection: Starting Center Fielder at the minimum, could have big-time contributor/All-Star potential.

Summary: I like Brown a lot, which is why I graded him as an A-minus prospect (I know Sickels graded him as a B-plus). I think Brown has some plus tools (speed being the obvious one) and some tools that could get better with more and more exposure to professional pitching. To be honest, it's hard to find a lot of flaws with Brown's tool set or abilities. Sure, he had a bit of a slump mid-season that probably prevented an earlier callup, but the overall numbers don't lie: Brown was simply phenomenal in the California League. Of course, we've been down this road before with "phenomenal" California League performers. Yet with his tool set and potential, I think Brown will not only be successful next year in Richmond, but at the Big League level as well.

The OTF Top 30: The Actual List

It's been a long week for me, so I didn't get a chance to post until now. However, I have compiled my actual prospect list, so I figured it would be good to write down the actual list and then go into profiles.

Will go more into detail on the list in subsequent posts, but just wanted to put it out there so people have one more prospect list to chew on.

Player Name	Ranking	Position	Grade	ETA
Gary Brown	#1	OF	A-	2013
Joe Panik	#2	SS/2B	B+	2013
Tommy Joseph	#3	C	B	2014
Heath Hembree	#4	P	B	2013
Ehire Adrianza	#5	SS	B	2013
Andrew Susac	#6	C	B	2014
Kyle Crick	#7	P	B	2015
Eric Surkamp	#8	P	B-	2012
Francisco Peguero	#9	OF	B-	2013
Hector Sanchez	#10	C	C+	2012
Charlie Culberson	#11	2B	C+	2013
Conor Gillaspie	#12	3B	C+	2012
Adalberto Mejia	#13	P	C+	2015
Clayton Blackburn	#14	P	C+	2014
Josh Osich	#15	P	C+	2014
Ricky Oropesa	#16	1B	C+	2014
Mike Kickham	#17	P	C+	2014
Seth Rosin	#18	P	C+	2014
Jarrett Parker	#19	OF	C	2014
Chris Dominguez	#20	3B	C	2013
Adam Duvall	#21	3B	C	2014
Hector Correa	#22	P	C	2014
Joan Gregorio	#23	P	C	2016
Brett Bochy	#24	P	C	2014
Jesus Galindo	#25	OF	C	2015
Jacob Dunnington	#26	P	C	2015
Chuckie Jones	#27	OF	C	2016
Shawn Payne	#28	OF	C	2016
Rafael Rodriguez	#29	OF	C	2016
Kendry Flores	#30	P	C	2016